2023 Nominations Predictions: December

With most of the major critics groups announcing nominations along with a few of the other star-hugging precursors, we now await the shortlists (Thursday) and the beginning of the deluge of guild organizations. Things may change still, but our predictors will be on top of it with our last set of nominations, the full slate, coming mid-January prior to the Oscar nominations.

KEY:

Appears on Four Lists
Appears on Three Lists
Appears on Two Lists
Appears on One Lists

Wesley Lovell Peter Patrick Tripp Burton Thomas LaTourrette

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: Everything has been seen. The precursors are coming out in a deluge and it’s time to solidify some of our predictions. While there are still quite a few question marks, I think I can say I’m pretty close to final selections with this list. We still have to wait for the shortlists to release on Thursday, but I doubt they will result in too many major changes. I also want to clarify why there’s a difference in my list regarding Barbie‘s screenplay and a lot of others. The Academy is notorious for classifying things submitted in original as adapted even if they’ve played all season as original screenplay. I think Barbie will fall into this category. While the category doesn’t get an adequate description in the rules, the general guidelines they have followed is that films based on characters or stories previously produced (or even not produced in the case of One Night in Miami…) are considered adapted. Barbie goes to great lengths to recognize famous Barbie dolls of the past by name and costume. The entire film is based on a product that has been produced for decades. That’s why I remain firm in my belief that the Academy is ultimately going to settle on Adapted for the film, which is why it’s on my Original list, but not nominated.
Pete Patrick: Those participating in phase one of the year-end awards have had their say. Major critics’ organizations and the National Board of Review have announced their winners. A revitalized Golden Globes and the increasingly less relevant Critics Choice nominations have been revealed. BAFTA and SAG nominations, among the major precursors, and the Oscar nominations themselves will be along in the new year. With not a lot of changes to make, I’m going to be bold and go against the trend and move Lily Gladstone from lead to support which probably won’t happen, but since the Oscars always have at least one surprise, that’s the one I’m predicting.
Tripp Burton: Early precursors have both helped solidify and confuse things. This should be a fun season! (editor’s note. Tripp was not able to provide the fifth Visual Effects nominee prior to deadline. Will update this information once it’s received.)
Thomas LaTourette: There was surprisingly little movement from last month’s predictions. I had expected more. Several categories stayed the same and the others had at most one change. The Color Purple still ranks as the biggest question mark of the films that haven’t been seen yet. I am not sure if it will be good or just mediocre. And even if they open to rave reviews, it seems that The Boys in the Boat, Freud’s Last Session, All of Us Strangers, and The Iron Claw have waited too long to premiere as most races seem pretty set. This is the last set of predictions before the shortlists come out. It will be interesting to see how much that changes everything as there are always some surprises from the Academy.

Best Picture

WLPPTBTL American Fiction
WLPPTBTL Anatomy of a Fall
WLPPTBTL Barbie
WLPPTBTL The Holdovers
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Maestro
WLPPTBTL May December
WLPPTBTL Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Past Lives
WLPPTBTL Poor Things
WLPPTBTL The Zone of Interest

Best Animated Feature

WLPPTBTL The Boy and the Heron
WLPPTBTL Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
WLPPTBTL Elemental
WLPPTBTL Nimona
WLPPTBTL Robot Dreams
WLPPTBTL Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
WLPPTBTL Wish

Best Directing

WLPPTBTL Anatomy of a Fall – Justine Triet
WLPPTBTL Barbie – Greta Gerwig
WLPPTBTL The Holdovers – Alexander Payne
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon – Martin Scorsese
WLPPTBTL Oppenheimer – Christopher Nolan
WLPPTBTL Past Lives – Celine Song
WLPPTBTL Poor Things – Yorgos Lanthimos
WLPPTBTL The Zone of Interest – Jonathan Glazer

Best Actor

WLPPTBTL Bradley Cooper – Maestro
WLPPTBTL Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Colman Domingo – Rustin
WLPPTBTL Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers
WLPPTBTL Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Andrew Scott – All of Us Strangers
WLPPTBTL Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction

Best Actress

WLPPTBTL Annette Bening – Nyad
WLPPTBTL Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall
WLPPTBTL Greta Lee – Past Lives
WLPPTBTL Carey Mulligan – Maestro
WLPPTBTL Natalie Portman – May December
WLPPTBTL Margot Robbie – Barbie
WLPPTBTL Emma Stone – Poor Things

Best Supporting Actor

WLPPTBTL Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction
WLPPTBTL Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Ryan Gosling – Barbie
WLPPTBTL Charles Melton – May December
WLPPTBTL Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things
WLPPTBTL Dominic Sessa – The Holdovers

Best Supporting Actress

WLPPTBTL Erika Alexander – American Fiction
WLPPTBTL Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple
WLPPTBTL America Ferrara – Barbie
WLPPTBTL Jodie Foster – Nyad
WLPPTBTL Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Sandra Hüller – The Zone of Interest
WLPPTBTL Julianne Moore – May December
WLPPTBTL Rosamund Pike – Saltburn
WLPPTBTL Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

Best Original Screenplay

WLPPTBTL Anatomy of a Fall
WLPPTBTL Asteroid City
WLPPTBTL Barbie
WLPPTBTL The Holdovers
WLPPTBTL Maestro
WLPPTBTL May December
WLPPTBTL Past Lives
WLPPTBTL Poor Things

Best Adapted Screenplay

WLPPTBTL All of Us Strangers
WLPPTBTL American Fiction
WLPPTBTL Barbie
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Poor Things
WLPPTBTL The Zone of Interest

Best Original Song

WLPPTBTL Addicted to Romance – She Came to Me
WLPPTBTL High Life – Flora and Son
WLPPTBTL I’m Just Ken – Barbie
WLPPTBTL Keep It Movin’ – The Color Purple
WLPPTBTL Road to Freedom – Rustin
WLPPTBTL What Was I Made For? – Barbie
WLPPTBTL A World of Your Own – Wonka

Best Original Score

WLPPTBTL Barbie
WLPPTBTL The Boy and the Heron
WLPPTBTL Elemental
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Past Lives
WLPPTBTL Poor Things
WLPPTBTL Society of the Snow
WLPPTBTL Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
WLPPTBTL The Zone of Interest

Best Film Editing

WLPPTBTL American Fiction
WLPPTBTL Barbie
WLPPTBTL The Holdovers
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Maestro
WLPPTBTL Oppeneheimer
WLPPTBTL Poor Things
WLPPTBTL The Zone of Interest

Best Cinematography

WLPPTBTL Barbie
WLPPTBTL Ferrari
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Maestro
WLPPTBTL Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Poor Things
WLPPTBTL The Zone of Interest

Best Production Design

WLPPTBTL Asteroid City
WLPPTBTL Barbie
WLPPTBTL The Color Purple
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Maestro
WLPPTBTL Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Poor Things
WLPPTBTL Wonka

Best Costume Design

WLPPTBTL Barbie
WLPPTBTL The Color Purple
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Maestro
WLPPTBTL Napoleon
WLPPTBTL Poor Things
WLPPTBTL Wonka

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

WLPPTBTL Barbie
WLPPTBTL The Color Purple
WLPPTBTL Golda
WLPPTBTL Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Maestro
WLPPTBTL Nyad
WLPPTBTL Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Poor Things

Best Sound

WLPPTBTL The Color Purple
WLPPTBTL Ferrari
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Maestro
WLPPTBTL Napoleon
WLPPTBTL Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
WLPPTBTL The Zone of Interest

Best Visual Effects

WLPPTBTL Barbie
WLPPTBTL The Creator
WLPPTBTL Godzilla Minus One
WLPPTBTL Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
WLPPTBTL Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
WLPPTBTL The Little Mermaid
WLPPTBTL The Marvels
WLPPTBTL Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
WLPPTBTL Poor Things
WLPPTBTL Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
WLPPTBTL Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
WLPPTBTL Wonka