And here we have our final nominations predictions for 2024. While things seem to have coalesced, the coalescing doesn’t seem to have turned out exactly the same way for all of us, so while we have a lot of identical predictions, we also have some off-the-wall choices.

KEY:

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: I have put all of my thoughts together in a separate article scheduled to post in one hour. You can read those thoughts here after they go live.
Pete Patrick: The Globes and Critics Choice awards have been given out. SAG and BAFTA nominations have been announced. It’s Oscar’s turn next.
Tripp Burton: (Tripp has not found the time to put together a revised list and has asked to sit out the rest of Oscar season. We’ll allow his last predictions to stand and once we post our winner predictions, his won’t be among them.
Thomas LaTourette: There was surprisingly little movement from last month’s predictions. I had expected more. Still unsure about The Color Purple making it to best picture, but the SAG has me wondering. There are three foreign language films in my best picture list right now, but I do not know which might be dropped for Color Purple.

Best Picture

WLPPTBTL All of Us Strangers
WLPPTBTL American Fiction
WLPPTBTL Anatomy of a Fall
WLPPTBTL Barbie
WLPPTBTL The Holdovers
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Maestro
WLPPTBTL May December
WLPPTBTL Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Past Lives
WLPPTBTL Poor Things
WLPPTBTL The Zone of Interest

Thomas LaTourette: Most of these films feel pretty set for a nomination. The seven English language ones especially, with Maestro or maybe American Fiction that could be in some trouble, but I doubt that. The Zone of Interest and Anatomy of a Fall also seem pretty solid. Past Lives is the one that most likely could be dropped for The Color Purple, but it also was well loved. But the SAG nomination for best cast does make me wonder if Color Purple will sneak in for that final nomination.

Best Animated Feature

WLPPTBTL The Boy and the Heron
WLPPTBTL Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
WLPPTBTL Elemental
WLPPTBTL Nimona
WLPPTBTL Robot Dreams
WLPPTBTL Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
WLPPTBTL Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
WLPPTBTL Wish

Thomas LaTourette: Spider-Man, The Boy and the Heron, and Elemental are all being nominated for sure. The last two nominees are much less determined. I have gone with Nimona and the latest Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles film, though I could imagine a number of movies that might supplant them easily.

Best Directing

WLPPTBTL Anatomy of a Fall – Justine Triet
WLPPTBTL Barbie – Greta Gerwig
WLPPTBTL The Holdovers – Alexander Payne
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon – Martin Scorsese
WLPPTBTL Oppenheimer – Christopher Nolan
WLPPTBTL Poor Things – Yorgos Lanthimos
WLPPTBTL The Zone of Interest – Jonathan Glazer

Thomas LaTourette: The only one of these directors I could see missing out is The Zone of Interest‘s Jonathan Glazer. The Academy has lately often nominated a director from an International film, and this year he seems the likeliest. I might have put down the director of Anatomy of a Fall, but it seems like they are going to pick a director with a corresponding International film nomination too. Or they might go for Bradley Cooper for Maestro instead. He has many nominations though no wins yet, so he is well liked by the Academy. But Alexander Payne of The Holdovers is the most likely one to sneak into the final spot.

Best Actor

WLPPTBTL Bradley Cooper – Maestro
WLPPTBTL Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Colman Domingo – Rustin
WLPPTBTL Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers
WLPPTBTL Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Andrew Scott – All of Us Strangers
WLPPTBTL Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction

Thomas LaTourette: Colman Domingo or Jeffrey Wright could be knocked out of competition by Leonardo DiCaprio who did some of his best acting in Killers of the Flower Moon. The movie will get a slew of nominations and he might sneak in as well. Domingo seems the likely one out if DiCaprio makes it in.

Best Actress

WLPPTBTL Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall
WLPPTBTL Greta Lee – Past Lives
WLPPTBTL Carey Mulligan – Maestro
WLPPTBTL Natalie Portman – May December
WLPPTBTL Margot Robbie – Barbie
WLPPTBTL Emma Stone – Poor Things

Thomas LaTourette: Gladstone, Mulligan, and Stone will definitely be nominated. It would be a pity if Margot Robbie was overlooked, though she has been in the past. Sandra Hüller is the one who could be passed over. Fantasia Barrino from The Color Purple or SAG nominee Annette Bening from Nyad are the two most likely to pull an upset.

Best Supporting Actor

WLPPTBTL Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction
WLPPTBTL Willem Dafoe – Poor Things
WLPPTBTL Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Ryan Gosling – Barbie
WLPPTBTL Charles Melton – May December
WLPPTBTL Paul Mescal – All of Us Strangers
WLPPTBTL Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things
WLPPTBTL Dominic Sessa – The Holdovers

Thomas LaTourette: SAG made this a more interesting race with Sterling K. Brown and Willem Dafoe as two somewhat unexpected nominees. I still think that Mark Ruffalo is the stronger candidate from Poor Things, though am wondering if both he and Dafoe might pull off the double nominations. Charles Melton from May December is also in the mix. Domninic Sessa should be too, though he seems unlikely to pull off a nomination.

Best Supporting Actress

WLPPTBTL Erika Alexander – American Fiction
WLPPTBTL Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple
WLPPTBTL Jodie Foster – Nyad
WLPPTBTL Claire Foy – All of Us Strangers
WLPPTBTL Sandra Hüller – The Zone of Interest
WLPPTBTL Julianne Moore – May December
WLPPTBTL Rosamund Pike – Saltburn
WLPPTBTL Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

Thomas LaTourette: The one person here who might not get nominated is Julianne Moore. She could be replaced by Ferrari‘s Penélope Cruz or Barbie‘s America Ferrera. Da’Vine Joy Randolph has the win sewn up, but they do have to have four other nominees.

Best Original Screenplay

WLPPTBTL Anatomy of a Fall
WLPPTBTL Asteroid City
WLPPTBTL The Holdovers
WLPPTBTL Maestro
WLPPTBTL May December
WLPPTBTL Past Lives
WLPPTBTL Poor Things

Thomas LaTourette: I feel pretty comfortable with this list. May December could be replaced by Air, but that film’s early release date may hurt its chances now.

Best Adapted Screenplay

WLPPTBTL All of Us Strangers
WLPPTBTL American Fiction
WLPPTBTL Barbie
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Poor Things

Thomas LaTourette: The move to adapted screenplay may put Barbie at risk as the four other nominations are pretty set. It might have won for original screenplay, but could miss even getting a nomination by the Academy going for The Zone of Interest instead.

Best Original Song

WLPPTBTL The Fire Inside – Flamin’ Hot
WLPPTBTL High Life – Flora and Son
WLPPTBTL I’m Just Ken – Barbie
WLPPTBTL It Never Went Away – American Symphony
WLPPTBTL Keep It Movin’ – The Color Purple
WLPPTBTL Road to Freedom – Rustin
WLPPTBTL What Was I Made For? – Barbie

Thomas LaTourette: Diane Warren has been on such a roll with nominations that I kept Flamin’ Hot on my list. Either it or “It Never Went Away” could be replaced by one of the songs from The Color Purple.

Best Original Score

WLPPTBTL American Fiction
WLPPTBTL The Boy and the Heron
WLPPTBTL Elemental
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Poor Things
WLPPTBTL Society of the Snow
WLPPTBTL Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
WLPPTBTL The Zone of Interest

Thomas LaTourette: Society of the Snow is the one most likely to not be nominated, though it does have some strong fans. The Zone of Interest or The Color Purple are more probable nominees, but I went with the ardent support I heard for Society instead.

Best Film Editing

WLPPTBTL American Fiction
WLPPTBTL Anatomy of a Fall
WLPPTBTL Barbie
WLPPTBTL The Holdovers
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Oppeneheimer
WLPPTBTL Poor Things
WLPPTBTL The Zone of Interest

Thomas LaTourette: Maestro is the one film that could sneak in here, perhaps taking the spot from The Holdovers, but that seems unlikely.

Best Cinematography

WLPPTBTL Barbie
WLPPTBTL Ferrari
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Maestro
WLPPTBTL Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Poor Things
WLPPTBTL The Zone of Interest
WLPPTBTL El Conde

Thomas LaTourette: I am comfortable with these and do not really expect an upset nomination unless The Color Purple does so much better than people expect across the board.

Best Production Design

WLPPTBTL Asteroid City
WLPPTBTL Barbie
WLPPTBTL The Color Purple
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Maestro
WLPPTBTL Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Poor Things
WLPPTBTL Wonka

Thomas LaTourette: Napoleon could swap in for The Color Purple, but these other films seem likely to all be nominated.

Best Costume Design

WLPPTBTL Barbie
WLPPTBTL The Color Purple
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Maestro
WLPPTBTL Napoleon
WLPPTBTL Poor Things
WLPPTBTL Wonka

Thomas LaTourette: Napoleon or Oppenheimer could knock off Wonka, but the other four films should easily pick up nominations.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

WLPPTBTL Barbie
WLPPTBTL Ferrari
WLPPTBTL Golda
WLPPTBTL Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Maestro
WLPPTBTL Napoleon
WLPPTBTL Nyad
WLPPTBTL Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Poor Things

Thomas LaTourette: Again these feel like the likely nominees. Society of the Snow is the one dark horse which might knock out Golda or Killers of the Flower Moon.

Best Sound

WLPPTBTL The Color Purple
WLPPTBTL Ferrari
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Maestro
WLPPTBTL Napoleon
WLPPTBTL Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
WLPPTBTL The Zone of Interest

Thomas LaTourette: The battle scenes of Napoleon might replace those of The Zone of Interest, but these nominations seem pretty solid.

Best Visual Effects

WLPPTBTL Barbie
WLPPTBTL The Creator
WLPPTBTL Godzilla Minus One
WLPPTBTL Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
WLPPTBTL Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
WLPPTBTL The Little Mermaid
WLPPTBTL Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
WLPPTBTL Poor Things
WLPPTBTL Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
WLPPTBTL Transformers: Rise of the Beasts

Thomas LaTourette: Any of the ten nominees could make it in as this feels like the most fluid category. It doesn’t even have a strong front runner. These feel like the most likely nominees, though Society of the Snow is a possibility. It definitely is the most wide open category.

Best International Feature

WLPPTBTL Fallen Leaves
WLPPTBTL Perfect Days
WLPPTBTL Society of the Snow
WLPPTBTL The Taste of Things
WLPPTBTL The Teachers’ Lounge
WLPPTBTL Totem
WLPPTBTL The Zone of Interest

Thomas LaTourette: If France had put in Anatomy of a Fall, it would be nominated and would be giving The Zone of Interest a race for the award. I am not certain that France’s choice of The Taste of Things will even get a nomination though it has been well reviewed. Perfect Days and 20 Days in Mariupol might sneak in with The Teacher’s Lounge being in perhaps the weakest spot.

Best Documentary Feature

WLPPTBTL 20 Days in Mariupol
WLPPTBTL 32 Sounds
WLPPTBTL American Symphony
WLPPTBTL Beyond Utopia
WLPPTBTL Four Daughters
WLPPTBTL Stamped from the Beginning
WLPPTBTL Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie

Thomas LaTourette: I have only seen one of these so far, so this is mainly guesswork as to what will be nominated. From what I know, these seem likely to be nominated but it could go otherwise.

Best Documentary Short Subject

WLPPTBTL The ABCs of Book Banning
WLPPTBTL The Barber of Little Rock
WLPPTBTL Camp Courage
WLPPTBTL Deciding Vote
WLPPTBTL The Last Repair Shop
WLPPTBTL Last Song from Kabul
WLPPTBTL Oasis

Thomas LaTourette: Just guessing on these.

Best Animated Short Film

WLPPTBTL Boom
WLPPTBTL Eeva
WLPPTBTL Letter to a Pig
WLPPTBTL Ninety-Five Sensese
WLPPTBTL Once Upon a Studio
WLPPTBTL Pete
WLPPTBTL War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
WLPPTBTL Wild Summon

Thomas LaTourette: Just guessing on these.

Best Live Action Short Film

WLPPTBTL The After
WLPPTBTL The Anne Frank Gift Shop
WLPPTBTL Invincible
WLPPTBTL Red, White and Blue
WLPPTBTL The Shepard
WLPPTBTL Strange Way of Life
WLPPTBTL The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
WLPPTBTL Yellow

Thomas LaTourette: Just guessing on these.