While a handful of precursors have already announced, the flood of critics prizes and guild nominations is just around the corner. Before those organizations start throwing wrenches into the works, let’s see what our prognosticators see as the trends heading into the rest of the year.

KEY:

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: While everything has now been screened (though the jury is still out on Wonka), it remains to be seen how critics will approach this year and that could change a lot of prediction calculus. I’ve made very few changes this time: removing Lee entirely and moving around a few nominees for various films. As such, it doesn’t look like very much movement this month, but next month, I suspect there will be some major changes.
Pete Patrick: Caught Rustin, although it was a chore to find it on Netflix which isn’t promoting it the way they have Nyad, The Killer, and their forthcoming premiere of May December on December 1. Colman Domingo is great in it. Returned him to my Best Actor predictions and added the film to my Best Picture predictions although it will probably be a tough sell. The film should also be a contender for Best Song. Also, The Color Purple, which was trounced in its Brazilian screening, was finally screened in the U.S. last night. Danielle Brooks and the film’s Costume Design got the most praise. With all this year’s major contenders having now been screened, things are starting to solidify.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: Not much movement in my categories this month. Most categories have four fairly certain picks with no consensus as to who will take the final spot. We are still waiting for The Color Purple to screen, and perhaps The Iron Claw. Both of which could produce some acting noms, and for Purple several below the line ones as well. Napoleon has opened to mostly mediocre reviews, so its chances of any favor from the Academy will be in some technical races. It still looks to be a race mainly between Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon for picture, director, and adapted screenplay. Oppenheimer will be the most nominated film, with Flower Moon, Maestro, and Barbie not far behind. It has proved to be a good year and there are more than enough people to fill out the categories, though some acting races will have some surprising snubs when the nominations come out.

Best Picture

WLPPTBTL All of Us Strangers
WLPPTBTL American Fiction
WLPPTBTL Anatomy of a Fall
WLPPTBTL Barbie
WLPPTBTL The Color Purple
WLPPTBTL The Holdovers
WLPPTBTL The Killer
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Maestro
WLPPTBTL Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Past Lives
WLPPTBTL Poor Things
WLPPTBTL Rustin
WLPPTBTL The Zone of Interest

Best Animated Feature

WLPPTBTL The Boy and the Heron
WLPPTBTL Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
WLPPTBTL Elemental
WLPPTBTL Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibbertia
WLPPTBTL Nimona
WLPPTBTL Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
WLPPTBTL Wish

Best Directing

WLPPTBTL American Fiction – Cord Jefferson
WLPPTBTL Anatomy of a Fall – Justine Triet
WLPPTBTL Barbie – Greta Gerwig
WLPPTBTL The Holdovers – Alexander Payne
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon – Martin Scorsese
WLPPTBTL Maestro – Bradley Cooper
WLPPTBTL Oppenheimer – Christopher Nolan
WLPPTBTL Past Lives – Celine Song
WLPPTBTL Poor Things – Yorgos Lanthimos
WLPPTBTL The Zone of Interest – Jonathan Glazer

Best Actor

WLPPTBTL Bradley Cooper – Maestro
WLPPTBTL Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Colman Domingo – Rustin
WLPPTBTL Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers
WLPPTBTL Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction

Best Actress

WLPPTBTL Annette Bening – Nyad
WLPPTBTL Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall
WLPPTBTL Carey Mulligan – Maestro
WLPPTBTL Margot Robbie – Barbie
WLPPTBTL Emma Stone – Poor Things

Best Supporting Actor

WLPPTBTL Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction
WLPPTBTL Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Colman Domingo – The Color Purple
WLPPTBTL Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Ryan Gosling – Barbie
WLPPTBTL Charles Melton – May December
WLPPTBTL Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things
WLPPTBTL Dominic Sessa – The Holdovers

Best Supporting Actress

WLPPTBTL Erika Alexander – American Fiction
WLPPTBTL Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple
WLPPTBTL Penélope Cruz – Ferrari
WLPPTBTL Viola Davis – Air
WLPPTBTL Jodie Foster – Nyad
WLPPTBTL Julianne Moore – May December
WLPPTBTL Rosamund Pike – Saltburn
WLPPTBTL Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

Best Original Screenplay

WLPPTBTL American Fiction
WLPPTBTL Anatomy of a Fall
WLPPTBTL Asteroid City
WLPPTBTL Barbie
WLPPTBTL The Holdovers
WLPPTBTL Maestro
WLPPTBTL Origin
WLPPTBTL Past Lives
WLPPTBTL Poor Things

Best Adapted Screenplay

WLPPTBTL All of Us Strangers
WLPPTBTL American Fiction
WLPPTBTL Barbie
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Poor Things
WLPPTBTL The Zone of Interest

Best Original Score

WLPPTBTL American Fiction
WLPPTBTL Barbie
WLPPTBTL Elemental
WLPPTBTL Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Past Lives
WLPPTBTL Poor Things
WLPPTBTL Rustin
WLPPTBTL Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Best Film Editing

WLPPTBTL American Fiction
WLPPTBTL Anatomy of a Fall
WLPPTBTL Barbie
WLPPTBTL The Holdovers
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Maestro
WLPPTBTL Oppeneheimer
WLPPTBTL Poor Things

Best Cinematography

WLPPTBTL Barbie
WLPPTBTL Ferrari
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Maestro
WLPPTBTL Napoleon
WLPPTBTL Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Poor Things
WLPPTBTL The Zone of Interest

Best Production Design

WLPPTBTL Barbie
WLPPTBTL The Color Purple
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Maestro
WLPPTBTL Napoleon
WLPPTBTL Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Poor Things
WLPPTBTL Wonka

Best Costume Design

WLPPTBTL Barbie
WLPPTBTL The Color Purple
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Maestro
WLPPTBTL Napoleon
WLPPTBTL Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Poor Things
WLPPTBTL Wonka

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

WLPPTBTL Barbie
WLPPTBTL Ferrari
WLPPTBTL Golda
WLPPTBTL Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Maestro
WLPPTBTL Napoleon
WLPPTBTL Nyad
WLPPTBTL Poor Things

Best Sound

WLPPTBTL The Color Purple
WLPPTBTL Ferrari
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Maestro
WLPPTBTL Napoleon
WLPPTBTL Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
WLPPTBTL The Zone of Interest

Best Visual Effects

WLPPTBTL Blue Beetle
WLPPTBTL The Creator
WLPPTBTL Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
WLPPTBTL Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
WLPPTBTL The Little Mermaid
WLPPTBTL The Marvels
WLPPTBTL Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
WLPPTBTL Napoleon
WLPPTBTL Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Transformers: Rise of the Beasts