With Venice, Toronto, and Telluride now in the rearview mirror, we have a much better view of what Oscar season will be about. Here are out latest updates. This month, we’re adding Production Design and Costume Design. Next month, we’ll be adding everything except Original Song, International Feature, and the documentary and short film categories. That would be Original Score, Makeup & Hairstyling, and Sound.

KEY:

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: Now that the festivals are over for the year (at least the important ones), we only have a small number of films that have not been seen: The Color Purple, Napoleon, and Wonka are still question marks. And I suspect from something another blogger Vaguebooked, I suspect that Ridley Scott’s French epic is a stinker. As such, it’s been largely excised from my predictions. I also removed Dune since it’s been moved back to 2024. There were several other changes with my most significant change in predictions since we started. That said, those aforementioned question marks are still out there and there’s the critics who could throw things into a new direction still. You may also notice some other questionable situations. Lily Gladstone is campaigning in lead, but might end up in support if they don’t feel she belongs in lead. Barbie is being campaigned in original screenplay in spite of history favoring an Adapted Screenplay placement. It would also be an easier road to victory in adapted, but the studio does what it wants.
Pete Patrick: Things have changed post-Telluride and Toronto with Poor Things, Maestro, All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, and The Holdovers gaining the most traction.
Tripp Burton: (No updated predictions provided.)
Thomas LaTourette: Dune: Part Two is definitely delayed until next year, so that changes a number of predicted categories. Not sure if The Piano Lesson and Long Day’s Journey into Night will follow its lead, though both had fallen off the radar for Oscars already. Some of the major festivals have happened and Toronto is ongoing (Editor’s Note: This was submitted prior to Toronto’s finale on Sunday). Poor Things has leapt into contention in several categories that it was not in before. I have had mixed feelings about previous films by Yorgos Lanthimos, so will be curious to see it. Origin opened to rave reviews and while it may be too early to see it move into multiple categories, it might do that soon. Both Nyad and American Fiction were well received, Saltburn a little less so, except for Barry Keoghan’s performance. Nyad’s reception keeps Annette Bening in the mix for best actress, and perhaps Jodie Foster into supporting. Hayao Miyazaki came out of retirement for a last animated film (Editor’s note: he has stated that it’s no longer his last film), which catapults The Boy and the Heron into the mix, and it might even dislodge the frontrunner, Spider-Man. The third part of the Spider-Man trilogy comes out next year and is already the prohibitive favorite to win then, so perhaps it gives Miyazaki a chance to win a second competitive Oscar. The Boy and the Heron will definitely be nominated, but without Miyazaki campaigning for the film, it may not make the necessary headway to win. Oppenheimer still feels like the film to beat. Dune 2’s delay until 2024 opens the way for several films to win in tech categories that did not stand much of a chance before. Surprisingly, there is not as much shaking up of my predictions as I thought there might be, but the next set of predictions following Toronto’s awards may do that.

Best Picture

WLPPTBTL All of Us Strangers
WLPPTBTL American Fiction
WLPPTBTL Anatomy of a Fall
WLPPTBTL Asteroid City
WLPPTBTL Barbie
WLPPTBTL The Color Purple
WLPPTBTL Dune: Part Two
WLPPTBTL The Holdovers
WLPPTBTL The Killer
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Maestro
WLPPTBTL Next Goal Wins
WLPPTBTL Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Origin
WLPPTBTL Past Lives
WLPPTBTL Poor Things
WLPPTBTL Rustin

Best Animated Feature

WLPPTBTL The Boy and the Heron
WLPPTBTL Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
WLPPTBTL Elemental
WLPPTBTL Nimona
WLPPTBTL Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
WLPPTBTL Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
WLPPTBTL Wish

Best Directing

WLPPTBTL Anatomy of a Fall – Justine Triet
WLPPTBTL Barbie – Greta Gerwig
WLPPTBTL The Color Purple – Blitz Bazawule
WLPPTBTL The Holdovers – Alexander Payne
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon – Martin Scorsese
WLPPTBTL Maestro – Bradley Cooper
WLPPTBTL Oppenheimer – Christopher Nolan
WLPPTBTL Past Lives – Celine Song
WLPPTBTL Poor Things – Yorgos Lanthimos

Best Actor

WLPPTBTL Kingsley Ben-Adair – Bob Marley: One Love
WLPPTBTL Bradley Cooper – Maestro
WLPPTBTL Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Colman Domingo – Rustin
WLPPTBTL Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers
WLPPTBTL Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction

Best Actress

WLPPTBTL Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple
WLPPTBTL Annette Bening – Nyad
WLPPTBTL Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall
WLPPTBTL Sandra Hüller – The Zone of Interest
WLPPTBTL Carey Mulligan – Maestro
WLPPTBTL Natalie Portman – May December
WLPPTBTL Margot Robbie – Barbie
WLPPTBTL Emma Stone – Poor Things

Best Supporting Actor

WLPPTBTL Willem Dafoe – Poor Things
WLPPTBTL Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Colman Domingo – The Color Purple
WLPPTBTL Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Ryan Gosling – Barbie
WLPPTBTL Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things

Best Supporting Actress

WLPPTBTL Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple
WLPPTBTL Penélope Cruz – Ferrari
WLPPTBTL Viola Davis – Air
WLPPTBTL America Ferrera – Dumb Money
WLPPTBTL Jodie Foster – Nyad
WLPPTBTL Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Taraji P. Henson – The Color Purple
WLPPTBTL Julianne Moore – May December
WLPPTBTL Elisabeth Moss – Next Goal Wins
WLPPTBTL Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

Best Original Screenplay

WLPPTBTL American Fiction
WLPPTBTL Anatomy of a Fall
WLPPTBTL Asteroid City
WLPPTBTL Barbie
WLPPTBTL The Holdovers
WLPPTBTL Maestro
WLPPTBTL Past Lives
WLPPTBTL Poor Things
WLPPTBTL Saltburn

Best Adapted Screenplay

WLPPTBTL All of Us Strangers
WLPPTBTL American Fiction
WLPPTBTL Barbie
WLPPTBTL Dumb Money
WLPPTBTL The Killer
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Next Goal Wins
WLPPTBTL Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Poor Things
WLPPTBTL The Zone of Interest

Best Film Editing

WLPPTBTL Barbie
WLPPTBTL The Color Purple
WLPPTBTL Dune: Part Two
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
WLPPTBTL Napoleon
WLPPTBTL Oppeneheimer
WLPPTBTL Saltburn
WLPPTBTL Anatomy of a Fall
WLPPTBTL Maestro
WLPPTBTL All of Us Strangers

Best Cinematography

WLPPTBTL Barbie
WLPPTBTL Ferrari
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Maestro
WLPPTBTL Napoleon
WLPPTBTL Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Poor Things
WLPPTBTL Saltburn

Best Production Design

WLPPTBTL Barbie
WLPPTBTL The Color Purple
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Maestro
WLPPTBTL Napoleon
WLPPTBTL Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Poor Things
WLPPTBTL Saltburn
WLPPTBTL Wonka

Best Costume Design

WLPPTBTL Barbie
WLPPTBTL The Color Purple
WLPPTBTL Killers of the Flower Moon
WLPPTBTL Maestro
WLPPTBTL Napoleon
WLPPTBTL Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Poor Things
WLPPTBTL Wonka

Best Visual Effects

WLPPTBTL Barbie
WLPPTBTL Blue Beetle
WLPPTBTL Dune: Part Two
WLPPTBTL Ferrari
WLPPTBTL Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
WLPPTBTL Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
WLPPTBTL The Little Mermaid
WLPPTBTL The Marvels
WLPPTBTL Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
WLPPTBTL Napoleon
WLPPTBTL Oppenheimer
WLPPTBTL Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
WLPPTBTL Wonka