Although many races are very difficult to call, we have a surprising number of identical predictions and several that are close to identical. Best Animated Feature, Actor, Adapted Screenplay, and Production Design seem to be locked according to our prognosticators. The ones that are pretty close to locked are: Best Directing, Actress, Original Screenplay, Original Song, Original Score, Film Editing, Makeup & Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects. That isn’t to say we won’t be off in any of these 13 categories, but we don’t expect many surprises there.

KEY:

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: Wesley’s commentary on individual races can be found here. So many races are still in flux with Best Supporting Actress being the hardest to nail down. It’s likely to be the nailbiter of the year. Still many things aren’t in flux and yet I made a lot of changes. I weighed guild selections, overall number of precursors, and BAFTA citations. We’ll see how things go in a few days.
Pete Patrick: Pete’s commentary can be found here. He did not provide an introductory paragraph.
Thomas LaTourette: Academy award nominations will be announced Thursday, and there are bound to be surprises and upsets. In a year with no front runner for best picture there are six films that might claim the prize. We might get a better idea of what might win when the nominations come out. Numerous nominations for one film or a lack of nominations for another will offer up some clues. Look for Wicked, The Brutalist, and Emilia Pérez to score the most nominations. Anora, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, and Dune: Part Two will probably not be far behind. If The Substance scores several noms including best picture, then Demi Moore’s chance of winning just got better. Wicked and A Complete Unknown will probably not do as well with the acting noms as they did with the Screen Actors Guild, though if either picks up three acting nominations, then there might be a front runner for best picture. And if Jon M. Chu is nominated for directing Wicked, then it would seem more likely to win best picture. Three acting noms for Emilia Pérez, Conclave, or The Brutalist might show more love for those films than expected. Some categories like International Film and Documentary Feature are known for choosing some obscure nominees, and it will be interesting to see what other upsets occur. Thursday morning is bound to bring surprises.

Best Picture

WLPPTL Anora
WLPPTL The Brutalist
WLPPTL A Complete Unknown
WLPPTL Conclave
WLPPTL Dune: Part Two
WLPPTL Emilia Pérez
WLPPTL Nickel Boys
WLPPTL A Real Pain
WLPPTL September 5
WLPPTL Sing Sing
WLPPTL The Substance
WLPPTL Wicked

Thomas LaTourette: This is the category giving me the most consternation. The five films that scored the Screen Actors Guild best cast nominations (Anora, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, and Wicked) are likely to also get Oscar nominations. Golden Globe winner The Brutalist is also guaranteed a spot. Dune: Part Two should easily make it in as well. The final three slots are a lot murkier. Producers Guild nominee The Substance seems likely to get a spot here as it is enjoying a late surge. But that leaves only two more places for Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, September 5, and Sing Sing. PGA chose A Real Pain and September 5, and I think the latter stands the better chance of making it in. The early release date for Sing Sing may now hurt its chances, so I will go with Nickel Boys, though it played so little in the theaters. In the last few years, a foreign language film has often cropped up here, so do not rule out All We Imagine as Light or The Seed of the Scared Fig to join Emilia Pérez as a non-English film, but that appears unlikely. I would not be surprised if A Real Pain or Sing Sing gets a nomination. So, we will see if I guessed correctly

Best Animated Feature

WLPPTL Flow
WLPPTL Inside Out 2
WLPPTL Memoir of a Snail
WLPPTL Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
WLPPTL The Wild Robot

Thomas LaTourette: These five have seemed pretty set for a while. The Academy could follow the Producers Guild and swap in Moana 2 for Memoir of a Snail, but that does not seem so likely.

Best Directing

WLPPTL Anora – Sean Baker
WLPPTL The Brutalist – Brady Corbet
WLPPTL A Complete Unknown – James Mangold
WLPPTL Conclave – Edward Berger
WLPPTL Emilia Pérez – Jacques Audiard
WLPPTL The Substance – Coralie Fargeat

Thomas LaTourette: The first four of these candidates seem very likely. The fifth spot now looks like it will go to Coralie Fargeat so that it is not an all-male roster, A Complete Unknown’s James Mangold, Dune: Part Two’s Denis Villeneuve or even the Nickel Boys’ RaMell Ross could slip in instead.

Best Actor

WLPPTL Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
WLPPTL Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
WLPPTL Daniel Craig – Queer
WLPPTL Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
WLPPTL Ralph Fiennes – Conclave

Thomas LaTourette: These five have dominated the thinking of Oscar prognosticators this season. Daniel Craig feels the weakest of them, but the Academy often likes an actor that tries to change his image so that he probably will get a nomination. Which could mean that Colman Domingo might not make the cut if Sebastian Stan triumphs due to his two lead roles. It would seem more likely that he would be nominated for The Apprentice rather than his Golden Globe-winning role in A Different Man, though the two roles may lead to vote splitting which could mean that Craig and Domingo stay in.

Best Actress

WLPPTL Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
WLPPTL Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez
WLPPTL Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths
WLPPTL Mikey Madison – Anora
WLPPTL Demi Moore – The Substance
WLPPTL Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here

Thomas LaTourette: This has been the most packed race that I have seen in years. Cynthia Erivo, Karla Sofía Gascón, and Mikey Madison all seem locks. Demi Moore had not seemed a viable candidate until her surprise win and great speech at the Golden Globes. She suddenly became the front runner in the race. The win by Fernanda Torres in the drama category at the Globes improved her odds here too. Pamela Anderson, who proved she can act in The Last Showgirl, Nicole Kidman, and Marianne Jean-Baptiste unfortunately look like they will not make the cut.

Best Supporting Actor

WLPPTL Yura Borisov – Anora
WLPPTL Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
WLPPTL Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing
WLPPTL Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
WLPPTL Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
WLPPTL Stanley Tucci – Conclave
WLPPTL Denzel Washington – Gladiator II

Thomas LaTourette: This is another packed category. Kieran Culkin has walked away with the lion’s share of awards so far, so probably can be working on his Oscar speech. Yura Borisov, Edward Norton, and Guy Pearce seem pretty set too. That leaves one spot open for Clarence Maclin, Jeremy Strong, and Denzel Washington to fight for. I originally pegged Maclin and then Washington for it but am now wondering if Strong will get it.

Best Supporting Actress

WLPPTL Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown
WLPPTL Jamie Lee Curtis – The Last Showgirl
WLPPTL Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson
WLPPTL Ariana Grande – Wicked
WLPPTL Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
WLPPTL Isabella Rossellini – Conclave
WLPPTL Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez

Thomas LaTourette: Zoe Saldaña, Ariana Grande, and even Isabella Rossellini, who did not get a SAG nomination, look set to get nominations. Danielle Deadwyler and Felicity Jones seemed pretty likely too, but late surges by Jamie Lee Curtis and Margaret Qualley leave their roads to the nominations rockier. And one cannot rule out Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor either. Or SAG nominee Monica Barbaro. I will go with my original predictions but could easily picture surprises happening in this category.

Best Original Screenplay

WLPPTL Anora
WLPPTL The Brutalist
WLPPTL Challengers
WLPPTL A Real Pain
WLPPTL September 5
WLPPTL The Substance

Thomas LaTourette: I feel comfortable with these guesses even though they hardly line up with the Writers Guild nominations. September 5 is probably in the weakest spot but I do not really see any film ready to take its place.

Best Adapted Screenplay

WLPPTL A Complete Unknown
WLPPTL Conclave
WLPPTL Emilia Pérez
WLPPTL Nickel Boys
WLPPTL Sing Sing

Thomas LaTourette: These five feel pretty set too, though Dune: Part Two could surprise.

Best Original Song

WLPPTL Compress/Repress – Challengers
WLPPTL The Journey – The Six Triple Eight
WLPPTL Kiss the Sky – The Wild Robot
WLPPTL Like a Bird – Sing Sing
WLPPTL El Mal – Emilia Pérez
WLPPTL Mi Camino – Emilia Pérez

Thomas LaTourette: The two songs from Emilia Pérez, Diane Warren’s from The Six Triple Eight, and the one from The Wild Robot all are likely nominees. I will give the last spot to “Compress/Regress” from Challengers, though could see it being replaced by “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing or even Elton John’s latest.

Best Original Score

WLPPTL The Brutalist
WLPPTL Challengers
WLPPTL Conclave
WLPPTL Emilia Pérez
WLPPTL Nosferatu
WLPPTL The Wild Robot

Thomas LaTourette: There can always be upsets, but these five seem the most likely.

Best Film Editing

WLPPTL Anora
WLPPTL The Brutalist
WLPPTL Challengers
WLPPTL Conclave
WLPPTL Dune: Part Two
WLPPTL Emilia Pérez

Thomas LaTourette: These five seem the most likely nominees. All of them will be best picture nominees with four of them standing a chance to win there.

Best Cinematography

WLPPTL The Brutalist
WLPPTL A Complete Unknown
WLPPTL Conclave
WLPPTL Dune: Part Two
WLPPTL Emilia Pérez
WLPPTL Nickel Boys
WLPPTL Nosferatu

Thomas LaTourette: Again, these seem the most likely nominees, though Maria could replace one.

Best Production Design

WLPPTL The Brutalist
WLPPTL Conclave
WLPPTL Dune: Part Two
WLPPTL Nosferatu
WLPPTL Wicked

Thomas LaTourette: Wicked, The Brutalist, and Dune are locks. Nosferatu may not have been the most successful of movies, but its sets were remarkable. But either it or Conclave could be replaced by Gladiator II.

Best Costume Design

WLPPTL The Brutalist
WLPPTL A Complete Unknown
WLPPTL Conclave
WLPPTL Dune: Part Two
WLPPTL Gladiator II
WLPPTL Nosferatu
WLPPTL Wicked

Thomas LaTourette: The front runner Wicked is a lock. Nosferatu probably is too. Dune and Gladiator are on shakier ground as sequels rarely get nominated. I could see one of them or Conclave being knocked out by Maria.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

WLPPTL A Different Man
WLPPTL Dune: Part Two
WLPPTL Emilia Pérez
WLPPTL Nosferatu
WLPPTL The Substance
WLPPTL Wicked

Thomas LaTourette: The Substance and Wicked are set, and A Different Man and Nosferatu seem likely as well. The original Beetlejuice won this and Dune was nominated for it, so they will battle for that final spot with Emilia Pérez. I will give the edge to Emilia Pérez which might be sweeping the nominations but could imagine any of them getting it.

Best Sound

WLPPTL Blitz
WLPPTL A Complete Unknown
WLPPTL Dune: Part Two
WLPPTL Emilia Pérez
WLPPTL Gladiator II
WLPPTL Wicked

Thomas LaTourette: These do seem the most likely nominees.

Best Visual Effects

WLPPTL Better Man
WLPPTL Dune: Part Two
WLPPTL Gladiator II
WLPPTL Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
WLPPTL Twisters
WLPPTL Wicked

Thomas LaTourette: Four of these seem likely, though I could see Twisters losing its spot to Better Man.

Best International Feature

WLPPTL Emilia Pérez – France
WLPPTL Flow – Latvia
WLPPTL The Girl with the Needle – Denmark
WLPPTL I’m Still Here – Brazil
WLPPTL Kneecap
WLPPTL The Seed of the Sacred Fig – Germany
WLPPTL Vermiglio – Italy

Thomas LaTourette: It sounds like it has been a strong year for this category. I have seen Emilia Pérez and Flow and was impressed by both. I’m Still Here and The Seed of the Sacred Fig both sound likely to be nominated too. Kneecap has been getting strong word of mouth and seems poised to take the fifth slot. The Italian Vermiglio or the popular Thai How to Make Millions before Grandma Dies would seem the most likely to upset, but anything could happen. This is a category that often is unpredictable, so I would expect some surprises.

Best Documentary Feature

WLPPTL Black Box Diaries
WLPPTL Dahomey
WLPPTL Daughters
WLPPTL Frida
WLPPTL No Other Land
WLPPTL The Remarkable Life of Ibelin
WLPPTL Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
WLPPTL Sugarcane
WLPPTL Will & Harper

Thomas LaTourette: This category often has some odd choices and major upsets. No Other Land, Sugarcane, and Daughters sound like locks. From what I have read the other two seem likely as well, but the well-liked Will & Harper or Dahomey or even Porcelain War could sneak in. Or they may choose some left field doc that no one expects.

Best Documentary Short Subject

WLPPTL Chasing Roo
WLPPTL Death by Numbers
WLPPTL I Am Ready, Warden
WLPPTL Instruments of a Beating Heart
WLPPTL Keeper
WLPPTL Makayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World
WLPPTL Once Upon a Time in Ukraine
WLPPTL Seat 31: Zooey Zephyr
WLPPTL The Only Girl in the Orchestra
WLPPTL Until He’s Back

Thomas LaTourette: I know little about these, so I am mostly just guessing. Once Upon a Time in Ukraine seems the likeliest of nominees.

Best Animated Short Film

WLPPTL Au Revoir Mon Monde
WLPPTL A Bear Named Wojtek
WLPPTL Beautiful Men
WLPPTL Bottle George
WLPPTL A Crab in the Pool
WLPPTL Maybe Elephants
WLPPTL Origami
WLPPTL Wander to Wonder
WLPPTL Yuck!

Thomas LaTourette: Again, I know little about these films.

Best Live Action Short Film

WLPPTL Anuja
WLPPTL Clodagh
WLPPTL The Compatriot
WLPPTL Crust
WLPPTL Dovecote
WLPPTL Edge of Space
WLPPTL The Ice Cream Man
WLPPTL A Lien
WLPPTL The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
WLPPTL The Masterpiece
WLPPTL An Orange from Jaffa
WLPPTL Paris 70

Thomas LaTourette: I know little about these films too, but from what I have read these five could well be nominated.