2024 Nominations Predictions: First for 97th Oscars

We start our predictions for the 97th Oscars here. Let’s see where things go.

KEY:

Appears on Four Lists
Appears on Three Lists
Appears on Two Lists
Appears on One Lists

Wesley Lovell Peter Patrick Tripp Burton Thomas LaTourrette

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: Beginning things with a surprisingly tumultuous list. There aren’t a lot of films that are guaranteed for a 2024 release, so some of these may eventually disappear. As always, these are extremely early predictions, so don’t put too much faith in them as yet.
Pete Patrick: With only one major contender (Dune: Part Two) released and just one other even seen in film festivals (Sing Sing), my early predictions are based mostly on subject matter and the reputations of the artists involved.
Thomas LaTourette: Already we are looking at the upcoming Oscars. It is all tentative at this point as some films sound good on paper but may not live up to their hype. Dune: Part Two is the only one that has opened so far, and it should do well in the technical categories and perhaps pick up a nom for best picture. As for the rest, we shall have to wait and see.

Best Picture

WLPPTBTL The Apprentice
WLPPTBTL Bird
WLPPTBTL Blitz
WLPPTBTL A Complete Unknown
WLPPTBTL Conclave
WLPPTBTL Dune: Part Two
WLPPTBTL Gladiator 2
WLPPTBTL Joker: Folie á Deux
WLPPTBTL Juror #2
WLPPTBTL Kinds of Kindness
WLPPTBTL Klara and the Sun
WLPPTBTL Megalopolis
WLPPTBTL The Nickel Boys
WLPPTBTL Nosferatu
WLPPTBTL The Piano Lesson
WLPPTBTL Queer
WLPPTBTL Sing Sing
WLPPTBTL Wicked

Pete Patrick: Steve McQueen’s WWII epic, Blitz; Edward Berger’s Vatican thriller, Conclave; James Mangold’s early Bob Dylan bio, A Complete Unknown; Clint Eastwood’s last film, the courtroom drama, Juror #2; Luca Guadagnino’s period drama, Queer; and of course, Francis Ford Coppola’s years-in-the-making Magalopolis, are all highly anticipated as are the Gladiator and Joker sequels.

Best Animated Feature

WLPPTBTL The Imginary
WLPPTBTL Inside Out 2
WLPPTBTL The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim
WLPPTBTL Mars Express
WLPPTBTL Moana 2
WLPPTBTL Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse
WLPPTBTL The Wild Robot

Best Directing

WLPPTBTL Bird – Andrea Arnold
WLPPTBTL Blitz – Steve McQueen
WLPPTBTL A Complete Unknown – James Mangold
WLPPTBTL Conclave – Edward Berger
WLPPTBTL Dune: Part Two – Denis Villeneuve
WLPPTBTL Juror #2 – Clint Eastwood
WLPPTBTL Kinds of Kindness – Yorgos Lanthimos
WLPPTBTL Megalopolis – Francis Ford Coppola
WLPPTBTL The Piano Lesson – Malcolm Washington
WLPPTBTL Queer – Luca Guadagnino

Pete Patrick: I don’t see how McQueen, Villeneuve, and Coppola can miss. Either Mangold or Guadagnino could be upset by Clint Eastwood whose Juror #2 will be his last film.

Best Actor

WLPPTBTL Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
WLPPTBTL Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
WLPPTBTL Daniel Craig – Queer
WLPPTBTL Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
WLPPTBTL Giancarlo Esposito – Megalopolis
WLPPTBTL Ralph Fiennes – Concolave
WLPPTBTL Andrew Garfield – We Live in a Time
WLPPTBTL Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson
WLPPTBTL Joaquin Phoenix – Joker: Folie á Deux
WLPPTBTL Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice
WLPPTBTL John David Washington – The Piano Lesson

Pete Patrick: Domingo and Chalamet are on a roll. Craig is overdue for a nomination and Fiennes is overdue for a win. Phoenix, reprising himself, has a tougher road to hoe.

Best Actress

WLPPTBTL Nathalie Emmanuel – Megalopolis
WLPPTBTL Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
WLPPTBTL Lily Gladstone – Fancy Dance
WLPPTBTL Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths
WLPPTBTL Angelina Jolie – Maria
WLPPTBTL Lady Gaga – Joker: Folie á Deux
WLPPTBTL Jessica Lange – Long Day’s Journey Into Night
WLPPTBTL Florence Pugh – We Live in a Time
WLPPTBTL Saoirse Ronan – Blitz
WLPPTBTL Zendaya – Challengers

Pete Patrick: Gaga and Ronan are almost certain. The others depend on their films being released this year, but Jean-Baptiste’s return to Mike Leigh’s direction, Jolie’s portrayal of Maria Callas directed by Pablo Larrain, and Pugh under John Crowley’s direction all sound like winners.

Best Supporting Actor

WLPPTBTL Willem Dafoe – Kinds of Kindness
WLPPTBTL Willem Dafoe – Nosferatu
WLPPTBTL Harris Dickinson – Blitz
WLPPTBTL Adam Driver – Megalopolis
WLPPTBTL Ben Foster – Long Day’s Journey Into Night
WLPPTBTL Stephen Graham – Blitz
WLPPTBTL Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson
WLPPTBTL John Lithgow – Conclave
WLPPTBTL Jesse Plemons – Kinds of Kindness
WLPPTBTL Drew Starkey – Queer
WLPPTBTL Stanley Tucci – Conclave
WLPPTBTL John David Washington – The Piano Lesson

Pete Patrick: Aside from Jackson, who is reprising his stage role, this category is an open book thus far. For now, Lithgow seems to be the only other previous nominee in strong contention, with Dickinson, Graham, and Starkey possibly breaking through.

Best Supporting Actress

WLPPTBTL Amy Adams – Klara and the Sun
WLPPTBTL Joan Chen – Didi
WLPPTBTL Toni Collette – Juror #2
WLPPTBTL Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson
WLPPTBTL Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – The Nickel Boys
WLPPTBTL Ariana Grande – Wicked
WLPPTBTL Lesley Manville – Queer
WLPPTBTL Aubrey Plaza – Megalopolis
WLPPTBTL Margaret Qualley – Kinds of Kindness
WLPPTBTL Saoirse Ronan – Blitz
WLPPTBTL Isabella Rossellini – Conclave

Pete Patrick: A dream list that is probably too good to be true, but quite possible. Deadwyler, shockingly snubbed two years ago, should make it in this time with former nominee Manville getting a second chance and longtime favorites Chan, Collette, and Rossellini finally getting some Oscar love.

Best Original Screenplay

WLPPTBTL Bird
WLPPTBTL Blitz
WLPPTBTL A Complete Unknown
WLPPTBTL The Fire Inside
WLPPTBTL Hard Truths
WLPPTBTL Kinds of Kindness
WLPPTBTL Megalopolis
WLPPTBTL A Real Pain
WLPPTBTL We Live in a Time

Best Adapted Screenplay

WLPPTBTL Conclave
WLPPTBTL Hit Man
WLPPTBTL Long Day’s Journey Into Night
WLPPTBTL The Nickel Boys
WLPPTBTL The Piano Lesson
WLPPTBTL Queer
WLPPTBTL Sing Sing