Cannes is underway, so things are still in flux as a result. However, we’ve got a few prediction updates ourselves.

KEY:

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: Not a lot of changes as yet. I remain bearish on Megalopolis even though it divided critics at Cannes. I’ve decreased its chances in some places but have overall left it unchanged. Added in Long Day’s Journey Into Night and eliminated a handful of potential contenders. Nothing outlandish this time.
Pete Patrick: It’s still too early to know anything for certain, but these seem like strong Oscar contenders based on their pedigree.
Thomas LaTourette: There is movement on my list, but no real idea still of what will eventually be here. Standing ovations seem to be given freely at Cannes, but I am not sure that they will amount to much when it comes to the Oscars. With only about three of the films out yet and somewhat mixed reviews to them, it is hard to predict if they will hold on for nominations. The sequels of Dune and Mad Max: Fury Road have decent reviews and will probably score well in the technical categories, but not sure that they will do much above the line. As for the rest, we will have to wait and see.

Best Picture

WLPPTBTL The Apprentice
WLPPTBTL Bird
WLPPTBTL Blitz
WLPPTBTL A Complete Unknown
WLPPTBTL Conclave
WLPPTBTL Dune: Part Two
WLPPTBTL Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
WLPPTBTL Gladiator 2
WLPPTBTL Joker: Folie à Deux
WLPPTBTL Juror #2
WLPPTBTL Kinds of Kindness
WLPPTBTL Megalopolis
WLPPTBTL Nickel Boys
WLPPTBTL Nosferatu
WLPPTBTL The Piano Lesson
WLPPTBTL Queer
WLPPTBTL Sing Sing
WLPPTBTL The Substance
WLPPTBTL Wicked

Best Animated Feature

WLPPTBTL The Garfield Movie
WLPPTBTL The Imginary
WLPPTBTL Inside Out 2
WLPPTBTL The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim
WLPPTBTL The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol
WLPPTBTL Mars Express
WLPPTBTL Moana 2
WLPPTBTL Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse
WLPPTBTL The Wild Robot

Best Directing

WLPPTBTL Blitz – Steve McQueen
WLPPTBTL Conclave – Edward Berger
WLPPTBTL Dune: Part Two – Denis Villeneuve
WLPPTBTL Juror #2 – Clint Eastwood
WLPPTBTL Kinds of Kindness – Yorgos Lanthimos
WLPPTBTL Megalopolis – Francis Ford Coppola
WLPPTBTL The Piano Lesson – Malcolm Washington
WLPPTBTL Queer – Luca Guadagnino
WLPPTBTL Sing Sing – Greg Kwedar
WLPPTBTL The Substance – Coralie Fargeat

Best Actor

WLPPTBTL Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
WLPPTBTL Daniel Craig – Queer
WLPPTBTL Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
WLPPTBTL Giancarlo Esposito – Megalopolis
WLPPTBTL Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
WLPPTBTL Ed Harris – Long Day’s Journey Into Night
WLPPTBTL Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson
WLPPTBTL Barry Keoghan – Bird
WLPPTBTL Joaquin Phoenix – Joker: Folie à Deux
WLPPTBTL Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice

Best Actress

WLPPTBTL Amy Adams – Nightbitch
WLPPTBTL Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
WLPPTBTL Lily Gladstone – Fancy Dance
WLPPTBTL Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths
WLPPTBTL Angelina Jolie – Maria
WLPPTBTL Lady Gaga – Joker: Folie à Deux
WLPPTBTL Jessica Lange – Long Day’s Journey Into Night
WLPPTBTL Demi Moore – The Substance
WLPPTBTL Saoirse Ronan – Blitz
WLPPTBTL Zendaya – Challengers

Best Supporting Actor

WLPPTBTL Willem Dafoe – Kinds of Kindness
WLPPTBTL Willem Dafoe – Nosferatu
WLPPTBTL Harris Dickinson – Blitz
WLPPTBTL Ben Foster – Long Day’s Journey Into Night
WLPPTBTL Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson
WLPPTBTL John Lithgow – Conclave
WLPPTBTL Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing
WLPPTBTL Jesse Plemons – Kinds of Kindness
WLPPTBTL Dennis Quaid – The Substance
WLPPTBTL Stanley Tucci – Conclave
WLPPTBTL John David Washington – The Piano Lesson

Best Supporting Actress

WLPPTBTL Joan Chen – Didi
WLPPTBTL Toni Collette – Juror #2
WLPPTBTL Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson
WLPPTBTL Ariana Grande – Wicked
WLPPTBTL Lesley Manville – Queer
WLPPTBTL Aubrey Plaza – Megalopolis
WLPPTBTL Margaret Qualley – Kinds of Kindness
WLPPTBTL Margaret Qualley – The Substance
WLPPTBTL Isabella Rossellini – Conclave

Best Original Screenplay

WLPPTBTL Bird
WLPPTBTL Blitz
WLPPTBTL A Complete Unknown
WLPPTBTL The Fire Inside
WLPPTBTL Hard Truths
WLPPTBTL Kinds of Kindness
WLPPTBTL Megalopolis
WLPPTBTL A Real Pain
WLPPTBTL We Live in a Time
WLPPTBTL Juror #2
WLPPTBTL The Substance

Best Adapted Screenplay

WLPPTBTL Conclave
WLPPTBTL Hit Man
WLPPTBTL Long Day’s Journey Into Night
WLPPTBTL Nickel Boys
WLPPTBTL Oh Canada
WLPPTBTL The Piano Lesson
WLPPTBTL Queer
WLPPTBTL Sing Sing