The last of the major festivals, and perhaps the three most important, have come and gone. It’s about that time of year when we start seeing the patterns fully emerge but we still have time before the critics awards start solidifying everything.

KEY:

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: With the big three festivals now done, some new films have entered the conversation. The Brutalist, The Room Next Door, and The Life of Chuck being the most significant. Hardly anyone was talking about Chuck until it won the audience award at Toronto, which is a sign of a potential Oscar contender. However, the film just doesn’t feel like an Oscar player. That’s especially true when you consider all the heavy contenders this year. It’s possible it could still make the final slate as most such winners do but I’m not convinced it can do so yet. The Brutalist seems like one of those films that everyone talks about but not everyone votes for. It gets nominations but isn’t beloved enough to win. The Room Next Door, on the other hand, is probably now your winner for Best Actress and Almodóvar has already proved he can win awards and that was before the Academy became more receptive to international features (even though this is an English-language feature, his first to be exact). So they are much more willing to recognize foreign talent. Beyond that, The Piano Lesson and Here took the biggest hits on my list, not that Here was a festival entry, it’s just been such a non-entity buzz-wise that it will struggle without that festival exposure. Piano Lesson, on the other hand, did have a festival bow and while it got good reviews, so did Nickel Boys and the latter seemed to get more raves than the former. Things can still shake out differently. It is only September so we’ve still got 3 months for things to firm up but we are well on our way.
Pete Patrick: The critical standouts of the late summer festivals were Conclave and The Brutalist with Saturday Night and Babygirl also earning rave reviews. Others such as The Room Next Door, Hard Truths, Queer, and The Piano Lesson received strong notices for performances but not necessarily for the films themselves. Despite several changes in predictions, the race remains in flux.
Thomas LaTourette: The big festivals helped clarify some things, but not a lot. The Toronto audience award going to The Life of Chuck came from left field and has many of us scratching our heads and wondering if this is a film we need to pay attention to. A win there usually guarantees a nod for Best Picture, but I am not sure that will be the case this time. Venice had more interesting winners with Pedro Almodovar’s first English-language film, The Room Next Door, taking best film, Nicole Kidman for best actress in Babygirl and The Brutalist for best director. The Brutalist seems to have come out of nowhere and does sound like a film that will get many nominations. I had not heard of it until now, but it looks set to grab a handful of major nominations. Its arrival seems to have shaken up the predictions more than any film lately. It will be interesting to see what happens when it goes into wider release. Certain nominees seem more set now, but I expect there will still be a lot of movement in my predictions over the next few months.

Best Picture

WLPPTL Anora
WLPPTL Blitz
WLPPTL The Brutalist
WLPPTL A Complete Unknown
WLPPTL Conclave
WLPPTL Dune: Part Two
WLPPTL Emilia Pérez
WLPPTL Gladiator II
WLPPTL Juror #2
WLPPTL Nickel Boys
WLPPTL A Real Pain
WLPPTL Saturday Night
WLPPTL Sing Sing
WLPPTL We Live in a Time
WLPPTL Wicked

Best Animated Feature

WLPPTL Flow
WLPPTL Inside Out 2
WLPPTL The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim
WLPPTL Memoir of a Snail
WLPPTL Moana 2
WLPPTL Piece by Piece
WLPPTL Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
WLPPTL The Wild Robot

Best Directing

WLPPTL Anora – Sean Baker
WLPPTL Blitz – Steve McQueen
WLPPTL The Brutalist – Brady Corbet
WLPPTL Conclave – Edward Berger
WLPPTL Emilia Pérez – Jacques Audiard
WLPPTL Gladiator II – Ridley Scott
WLPPTL Room Next Door – Pedro Almodóvar

Best Actor

WLPPTL Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
WLPPTL Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
WLPPTL Daniel Craig – Queer
WLPPTL Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
WLPPTL Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
WLPPTL Sebastian Stan – A Different Man

Best Actress

WLPPTL Amy Adams – Nightbitch
WLPPTL Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
WLPPTL Karla Sofia Gascon – Emilia Pérez
WLPPTL Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths
WLPPTL Angelina Jolie – Maria
WLPPTL Nicole Kidman – Babygirl
WLPPTL Mikey Madison – Anora
WLPPTL Saoirse Ronan – Blitz
WLPPTL Saoirse Ronan – The Outrun
WLPPTL Tilda Swinton – The Room Next Door

Best Supporting Actor

WLPPTL Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
WLPPTL Willem Dafoe – Nosferatu
WLPPTL Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson
WLPPTL John Lithgow – Conclave
WLPPTL Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing
WLPPTL Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
WLPPTL Drew Starkey – Queer
WLPPTL Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice
WLPPTL Stanley Tucci – Conclave
WLPPTL Denzel Washington – Gladiator II

Best Supporting Actress

WLPPTL Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson
WLPPTL Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Nickel Boys
WLPPTL Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
WLPPTL Lesley Manville – Queer
WLPPTL Julianne Moore – The Room Next Door
WLPPTL Saoirse Ronan – Blitz
WLPPTL Isabella Rossellini – Conclave
WLPPTL Zoe Saldana – Emilia Pérez
WLPPTL Tilda Swinton – The Room Next Door

Best Original Screenplay

WLPPTL Anora
WLPPTL Blitz
WLPPTL The Brutalist
WLPPTL Emilia Pérez
WLPPTL The Fire Inside
WLPPTL Hard Truths
WLPPTL A Real Pain
WLPPTL Saturday Night
WLPPTL We Live in Time

Best Adapted Screenplay

WLPPTL A Complete Unknown
WLPPTL Conclave
WLPPTL Long Day’s Journey Into Night
WLPPTL Nickel Boys
WLPPTL The Piano Lesson
WLPPTL Queer
WLPPTL The Room Next Door
WLPPTL Saturday Night
WLPPTL Sing Sing

Best Original Score

WLPPTL Blitz
WLPPTL The Brutalist
WLPPTL Conclave
WLPPTL Dune: Part Two
WLPPTL Emilia Pérez
WLPPTL Gladiator II
WLPPTL Queer
WLPPTL The Room Next Door

Best Film Editing

WLPPTL Anora
WLPPTL Blitz
WLPPTL The Brutalist
WLPPTL Conclave
WLPPTL Dune: Part Two
WLPPTL Emilia Pérez
WLPPTL Gladiator II
WLPPTL Sing Sing

Best Cinematography

WLPPTL Blitz
WLPPTL The Brutalist
WLPPTL A Complete Unknown
WLPPTL Conclave
WLPPTL Dune: Part Two
WLPPTL Gladiator II
WLPPTL Maria
WLPPTL Nosferatu

Best Production Design

WLPPTL Anora
WLPPTL Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
WLPPTL Blitz
WLPPTL The Brutalist
WLPPTL Conclave
WLPPTL Dune: Part Two
WLPPTL Gladiator II
WLPPTL Megalopolis
WLPPTL Saturday Night
WLPPTL Wicked

Best Costume Design

WLPPTL Anora
WLPPTL Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
WLPPTL Blitz
WLPPTL The Brutalist
WLPPTL Conclave
WLPPTL Dune: Part Two
WLPPTL Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
WLPPTL Gladiator II
WLPPTL Maria
WLPPTL Nosferatu
WLPPTL Saturday Night
WLPPTL Wicked

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

WLPPTL Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
WLPPTL Deadpool & Wolverine
WLPPTL Dune: Part Two
WLPPTL Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
WLPPTL Joker: Folie á Deux
WLPPTL Longlegs
WLPPTL Nosferatu
WLPPTL Saturday Night
WLPPTL The Substance
WLPPTL Wicked

Best Sound

WLPPTL Blitz
WLPPTL The Brutalist
WLPPTL A Complete Unknown
WLPPTL Conclave
WLPPTL Dune: Part Two
WLPPTL Gladiator II
WLPPTL Joker: Folie à Deux
WLPPTL Nosferatu
WLPPTL Wicked

Best Visual Effects

WLPPTL Deadpool & Wolverine
WLPPTL Dune: Part Two
WLPPTL Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
WLPPTL Gladiator II
WLPPTL Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
WLPPTL Mufasa: The Lion King
WLPPTL The Substance
WLPPTL Twisters
WLPPTL Wicked