Here are our final predictions and commentary for this year. The Oscars will be held on Sunday and we’re all ready to enjoy it rather than just talk about it. We’ll have a post-Oscars commentary on Tuesday next week. Until then, have a final look at our final thoughts below.

KEY:

Appears on Three Lists Appears on Two Lists Appears on One Lists Wesley Lovell Peter Patrick Tripp Burton Thomas LaTourrette

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: With all the important precursors (except American Cinema Editors) handed out and no major critics groups or other prizes left (the Publicists Guild, Film Music Critics Association, and Razzies are all that remain), it’s time to set on paper our final predictions. My commentary resides in my Final Thoughts article posted earlier today. I don’t have much to add now except that it appears to be another one of those years where the most honored film will come out with less than half a dozen wins and possibly no film earning more than 4. That hasn’t happened since Nomadland and is an all around infrequent occurrence but that’s where we stand.
Pete Patrick: This has been a year of shifting front-runners in several categories including in Best Picture where the favorite went from Wicked early on to The Brutalist to Anora to Conclave, and even A Complete Unknown as we approach the end of the race. Best Actor seemed almost certain to go to Adrien Brody until Timothée Chalamet won SAG last Sunday while Best Actress has been a seesaw race between Demi Moore and Mikey Madison all season at the expense of Marianne Jean-Baptiste who started out the season winning all the major critics’ awards and then was shockingly shut out of the Oscar race when she failed to be nominated. As we come to the end, there is still time for another surprise, but what will it be? My evening will be made if Isabella Rossellini pulls off a surprise win for Best Supporting Actress over front-runner Zoe Saldaña and audience favorite Ariana Grande.
Thomas LaTourette: The wildest Oscar season is drawing to a close with the awards coming Sunday. Best picture is the most up in the air that I can remember. At the start of the season, six of the nominees all seemed to have a chance at winning, though now it is probably down to two of them, Anora or Conclave. Either could win, and I am not certain which is the more likely. Several other races have also been in flux, which is both exciting and bewildering. Actor, actress, original screenplay, song, sound, and international feature are more up in the air than expected this close to awards time. It will definitely be a year where major upsets could occur. Or perhaps everything will go as predicted, though that seems doubtful. Anora would seem to be in the driver’s seat for many major awards, but it does not feel like an “Oscar movie” to me. Some people have loved it, and others have loathed it. And that polarization may keep it from winning the big prize. Whereas Conclave is liked, though perhaps not loved. Perhaps it will get enough second or third choice rankings from voters that it could win. From the nominees, my top choices would be Emilia Pérez and Wicked, but neither stands a chance of winning. Emilia Pérez was facing the latent hostility towards Netflix to start and then the star’s old tweets just tanked its chances. I would be fine with Wicked winning, but it never caught on enough to be a major threat. Perhaps the voters are waiting to see if the second half is as good. I really do not know how the winds are blowing for best picture. In other races Timothée Chalamet’s and Mikey Madison’s stars are rising but they may have started too late for them to win. Emilia Pérez is on the downward trend, but will it have been enough to keep it from winning International Feature, song, and supporting actress? The fires caused some delays in voting for the Academy and delays in awards from some of the guilds and other groups, so we don’t know how things might have gone in a normal year. The cinematographers and screen actors guilds gave their awards after Oscar voting was completed, so those did not affect the race the way they usually would. There is often not much movement this late in the race, but this was an abnormal year with some definitely odd films nominated. Who would have expected The Substance to be up for picture, director, actress, and screenplay? Like Anora, it is not the typical best picture nominee, so perhaps the Academy has changed enough in the last few years that we cannot predict based on past winners and nominees. Last year with Oppenheimer, it was easy to predict how many awards would go, so I am not sure if this year is an anomaly or if last year was. With so much unpredictability it should make for an eventful night.

Best Picture

Winner Predictions

• Anora (WL P)
• The Brutalist
• A Complete Unknown
• Conclave (PP P) (TL P)
• Dune: Part Two
• Emilia Pérez
• I’m Still Here
• Nickel Boys
• The Substance
• Wicked

Runner-Up Predictions

• Anora (PP F) [New] (TL P)
• Conclave (WL P)

(color and symbol key at top of page)

Wesley Lovell: Wesley’s individual category commentary can be found in his Final Thoughts article posted earlier today.
Pete Patrick: Pete did not provide individual category commentary.
Thomas LaTourette: This could go many ways. Anora has the producers guild award which is a good predictor, but it just does not feel like the type of film that the Academy honors. With BAFTA and the SAG award for best cast wins, I wonder if momentum has shifted to the popular and less polarizing Conclave. Winning without a directing nomination is not easy, but I think it might happen.

Best Animated Feature

Winner Predictions

• Flow (TL O)
• Inside Out 2
• Memoir of a Snail
• Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
• The Wild Robot (WL O) (PP O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• Flow (WL O) (PP O)
• The Wild Robot (TL O)

(color and symbol key at top of page)

Thomas LaTourette: It would not surprise me if the enjoyable The Wild Robot wins, though the Golden Globes surprised with the win to Flow, and maybe the Academy will follow suit with the more original film.

Best Directing

Winner Predictions

• Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
• Sean Baker – Anora (WL P) (TL F) [New]
• Brady Corbet – The Brutalist (PP F) [New]
• Coralie Fargeat – The Substance
• James Mangold – A Complete Unknown

Runner-Up Predictions

• Sean Baker – Anora (PP F) [New]
• Brady Corbet – The Brutalist (WL P) (TL F) [New]

(color and symbol key at top of page)

Thomas LaTourette: It had seemed that Brady Corbet would easily win this for getting his passion project done, but Sean Baker’s win from the guild puts that is doubt. Corbet won at BAFTA, but it will probably go to Baker.

Best Actor

Winner Predictions

• Adrien Brody – The Brutalist (WL P) (TL O)
• Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Uknown
• Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
• Ralph Fiennes – Conclave (PP P)
• Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice

Runner-Up Predictions

• Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Uknown (WL P) (PP P) (TL O)

(color and symbol key at top of page)

Thomas LaTourette: There is still a chance that Timothée becomes the youngest actor to win this, which would beat out Brody’s own record by a few months, but I expect it to be Adrien Brody’s name called out on Sunday night.

Best Actress

Winner Predictions

• Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
• Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez
• Mikey Madison – Mikey Madison
• Demi Moore – The Substance (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)
• Fernanda Torres – Fernanda Torres

Runner-Up Predictions

• Mikey Madison – Mikey Madison (WL P) (PP P) (TL P)

(color and symbol key at top of page)

Thomas LaTourette: The Academy does like to honor relative newcomers like Mikey Madison, but I would give the edge to Demi Moore after the SAG win.

Best Supporting Actor

Winner Predictions

• Yura Borisov – Anora
• Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)
• Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
• Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
• Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice

Runner-Up Predictions

• Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown (PP O) (TL O)
• Guy Pearce – The Brutalist (WL O)

(color and symbol key at top of page)

Thomas LaTourette: Kieran Culkin has run away with this all season long seemingly winning every major award given out and it would be a shock if anyone but him won.

Best Supporting Actress

Winner Predictions

• Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown
• Ariana Grande – Wicked
• Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
• Isabella Rossellini – Conclave (PP O)
• Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez (WL O) (TL O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• Ariana Grande – Wicked (WL P) (TL O)
• Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez (PP O)

(color and symbol key at top of page)

Thomas LaTourette: Zoe Saldaña has bested the travails that occurred to Emilia Pérez and should triumph with a win at the Oscars for her stirring work.

Best Original Screenplay

Winner Predictions

• Anora (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)
• The Brutalist
• A Real Pain
• September 5.
• The Substance

Runner-Up Predictions

• A Real Pain (WL F) [New] (PP O) (TL P)

(color and symbol key at top of page)

Thomas LaTourette: A Real Pain is the more talkie film which might sway some voters over to it, but it will probably go to Anora.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Winner Predictions

• A Complete Unknown
• Conclave (WL P) (PP O) (TL O)
• Emilia Pérez
• Nickel Boys
• Sing Sing

Runner-Up Predictions

• A Complete Unknown (TL O)
• Nickel Boys (WL P) (PP P)

(color and symbol key at top of page)

Thomas LaTourette: Conclave has won the most precursors which should set it up nicely to win this.

Best Original Song

Winner Predictions

• The Journey – The Six Triple Eight (TL P)
• Like a Bird – Sing Sing
• El Mal – Emilia Pérez (WL O) (PP O)
• Mi Camino – Emilia Pérez
• Never Too Late – Elton John: Never Too Late

Runner-Up Predictions

• The Journey – The Six Triple Eight (WL O) (PP F) [New]
• El Mal – Emilia Pérez (TL P)

(color and symbol key at top of page)

Thomas LaTourette: “El Mal” has the most wins of any of the nominees and may still win, but I think an upset is brewing and Diane Warren will finally break her losing streak at the Oscars and claim an award for “The Journey.”

Best Original Score

Winner Predictions

• The Brutalist (WL P) (PP O) (TL O)
• Conclave
• Emilia Pérez
• Wicked
• The Wild Robot

Runner-Up Predictions

• Conclave (PP O) (TL O)
• Emilia Pérez (WL P)

(color and symbol key at top of page)

Thomas LaTourette: The lyrical work from The Brutalist should win this award.

Best Film Editing

Winner Predictions

• Anora
• The Brutalist
• Conclave (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TL P)
• Emilia Pérez
• Wicked

Runner-Up Predictions

• Anora (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New]
• The Brutalist (TL P)

(color and symbol key at top of page)

Thomas LaTourette: Conclave seems the likely winner, but an upset could occur from either Anora or The Brutalist.

Best Cinematography

Winner Predictions

• The Brutalist (WL P) (PP P) (TL O)
• Dune: Part Two
• Emilia Pérez
• Maria
• Nosferatu

Runner-Up Predictions

• Nosferatu (WL O) (PP P) (TL P)

(color and symbol key at top of page)

Thomas LaTourette: The Brutalist had stunning work and will probably win, but the sheer length of the film may deter some voters which could lead Nosferatu or guild winner Maria to a surprise win.

Best Production Design

Winner Predictions

• The Brutalist
• Conclave
• Dune: Part Two
• Nosferatu
• Wicked (WL P) (PP O) (TL O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• Nosferatu (WL P) (PP F) [New] (TL P)

(color and symbol key at top of page)

Thomas LaTourette: No film that is nominated is undeserving of being there, but Wicked stands taller than all the rest with its innovative work and should win.

Best Costume Design

Winner Predictions

• A Complete Unknown
• Conclave
• Gladiator II
• Nosferatu
• Wicked (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• Nosferatu (WL O) (TL O)
• Conclave (PP P)

(color and symbol key at top of page)

Thomas LaTourette: The utter favorite has to be Wicked for the bright and colorful costumes.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Winner Predictions

• A Different Man
• Emilia Pérez
• Nosferatu
• The Substance (WL P) (PP P) (TL O)
• Wicked

Runner-Up Predictions

• Nosferatu (WL F) [New]
• Wicked (PP F) [New] (TL O)

(color and symbol key at top of page)

Thomas LaTourette: The Substance has had this sewn up for ages and it has won more of the precursors than all of the other films combined.

Best Sound

Winner Predictions

• A Complete Unknown (PP O)
• Dune: Part Two (WL O)
• Emilia Pérez
• Wicked (TL P)
• The Wild Robot

Runner-Up Predictions

• A Complete Unknown (WL P)
• Dune: Part Two (PP F) [New] (TL P)

(color and symbol key at top of page)

Thomas LaTourette: This is an absolute toss-up between Wicked and Dune: Part Two, with maybe A Complete Unknown in as a spoiler. I give the edge to Wicked to win but will not be surprised if Dune is named.

Best Visual Effects

Winner Predictions

• Alien: Romulus
• Better Man
• Dune: Part Two (WL O) (PP P) (TL O)
• Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
• Wicked

Runner-Up Predictions

• Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)

(color and symbol key at top of page)

Thomas LaTourette: Even though Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes just won the top award from the Visual Effects Society, I still think that the Oscar is more likely to go to Dune: Part Two which won the most awards of the evening from the VES.

Best International Feature

Winner Predictions

• Emilia Pérez (WL O) (PP O)
• Flow
• The Girl with the Needle
• I’m Still Here (TL P)
• The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Runner-Up Predictions

• Emilia Pérez (TL P)
• I’m Still Here (WL O) (PP O)

(color and symbol key at top of page)

Thomas LaTourette: For a long time, I did not feel like Emilia Pérez could be beat in this category, but controversy has lessened its chances. It might still win, but I think I’m Still Here will prevail instead.

Best Documentary Feature

Winner Predictions

• Black Box Diaries
• No Other Land (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TL O)
• Porcelain War
• Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
• Sugarcane

Runner-Up Predictions

• Porcelain War (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TL F) [New]

(color and symbol key at top of page)

Thomas LaTourette: No Other Land should win for its moving and distressing portrayal of life in Palestine. DGA winner Porcelain War or Black Box Diaries could upset.

Best Documentary Short Subject

Winner Predictions

• Death by Numbers (WL O) (PP P)
• I Am Ready, Warden
• Incident
• Instruments of a Beating Heart
• The Only Girl in the Orchestra (TL F) [New]

Runner-Up Predictions

• I Am Ready, Warden (WL O)
• Incident (TL O)
• The Only Girl in the Orchestra (PP O)

(color and symbol key at top of page)

Thomas LaTourette: Incident should win for its devastating work using surveillance and body cam footage, but voters might go for the more feel good and very well done The Only Girl in the Orchestra or even I Am Ready, Warden, which is often the type of film that wins.

Best Animated Short Film

Winner Predictions

• Beautiful Men
• In the Shadow of the Cypress
• Magic Candies
• Wander to Wonder (WL O) (PP O) (TL P)
• Yuck!

Runner-Up Predictions

• Beautiful Men (PP P)
• Magic Candies (TL P)
• Yuck! (WL P)

(color and symbol key at top of page)

Thomas LaTourette: Wander to Wonder won the Annie award for best short film, and I could see it repeating at the Oscars.

Best Live Action Short Film

Winner Predictions

• A Lien (PP F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• Anuja
• I’m Not a Robot (WL F) [New]
• The Last Ranger
• The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

Runner-Up Predictions

• A Lien (WL O)
• The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent (PP F) [New]
• Anuja (TL F) [New]

(color and symbol key at top of page)

Thomas LaTourette: A Lien about ICE raids at green card hearings was the most moving of the shorts, but either Anuja or The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent might win instead.