97th Oscar Morning: Final Nomination Thoughts

Tomorrow morning, the nominations for the 96th Academy Awards will be announced. They’ll be revealed by Bottoms star Rachel Sennott and SNL alum and Wicked supporting actor Bowen Yang.

Before the nominations are announced, I wanted to put down in writing my thoughts on this year’s categories and how I came to my choices for my final predictions. It’s been a long and wild ride to this year’s Oscar nominations and if I were to say I’m confident in my predictions, I’d be lying. There’s a lot of room for doubt this year, so it’s even more important to understand my rationale.

Since the nominations will be broken down in groups with less than half nominated in the first group and the remainder in the second, I will be breaking down my commentary similarly. I’ll try to sort the categories in each group by their volatility, though that might be difficult this year considering how much there already is and just how competitive everything is in many categories.

Before we dig into that, let’s start off with the presentation groupings. While the announcement order within the group was not revealed and subject to change, the below should give you an idea of when things should announce. That said, every year, one or two categories are swapped in the last-minute between groups.

Group 1 (alphabetical order):

Actor in a Supporting Role
Actress in a Supporting Role
Animated Short Film
Costume Design
Live Action Short Film
Makeup and Hairstyling
Music (Original Score)
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Writing (Original Screenplay)

Group 2 (alphabetical order):

Actor in a Leading Role
Actress in a Leading Role
Animated Feature Film
Cinematography
Directing
Documentary Feature Film
Documentary Short Film
Film Editing
International Feature Film
Music (Original Song)
Best Picture
Production Design
Sound
Visual Effects

Below, embedded in this article, is a video where you can watch the announcement streamed live starting at 5:30am PST / 7:30am CST / 8:30am EST / 1:30pm GMT / 9:30pm China for Group 1 and 5:41am PST / 7:41am CST / 8:41am EST / 1:41pm GMT / 9:41pm China for Group 2. Although you can watch it from my site, YouTube (or another of the Academy’s socials) may be the better bet.

To find my Hopefuls list without the commentary, click here: listed as Hopefuls.

Don’t miss all of Awards Landscape’s contributors and their thoughts in today’s other post: final nominations predictions post.

With all of that out of the way, let’s get to the commentary:

Group 1

Best Animated Short Film

My Predictions:

Origami (c-12/17, n-12/17, o-12/17) — Borderline —
Au Revoir Mon Monde (c-12/17, n-12/17) — Borderline —
Bottle George (c-12/17, n-12/17) — Borderline —
Maybe Elephants (c-12/17, n-12/17) — Borderline —
Wander to Wonder (c-12/17, n-12/17) — Borderline —
The 21 (c-12/17) — Borderline —
A Bear Named Wojtek (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Beautiful Men (c-12/17) — Borderline —
A Crab in a Pool (c-12/17) — Borderline —
In the Shadow of the Cypress (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Magic Candies (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Me (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Percebes (c-12/17) — Borderline —
The Wild-Tempered Clavier (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Yuck! (c-12/17) — Borderline —

Precursors:

Wander to Wonder —– (3) [75.00%] —– (– Annie – BAFTA – LFCC –)
Mog’s Christmas —– (2) [50.00%] —– (– Annie – BAFTA –)
Adiós —– (1) [25.00%] —– (– BAFTA –)
A Bear Named Wojtek —– (1) [25.00%] —– (– Annie –)
Beautiful Men —– (1) [25.00%] —– (– Annie –)
if(fy) —– (1) [25.00%] —– (– NAACP –)
In the Shadow of the Cypress —– (1) [25.00%] —– (– Annie –)
Nate & John —– (1) [25.00%] —– (– NAACP –)
Orion and the Dark —– (1) [25.00%] —– (– Annie –)
Peanut Headz: Black History Toonz “Jackie Robinson” —– (1) [25.00%] —– (– NAACP –)
Ruthless Blade —– (1) [25.00%] —– (– Annie –)
Self —– (1) [25.00%] —– (– NAACP –)
The Swineherd —– (1) [25.00%] —– (– Annie –)
Tabby McTat —– (1) [25.00%] —– (– Annie –)
Walk in the Light —– (1) [25.00%] —– (– NAACP –)
Yuck! —– (1) [25.00%] —– (– Annie –)

General Commentary: Without seeing a portion of ballots, it’s almost impossible to get these 100% correct without an amount of luck and guesswork. To say I’m confident in any of these would be a lie. Of these, Wander to Wonder is the only eligible short with both an Annie nomination and BAFTA (British Academy of Film & Television Arts). Beautiful Men, A Bear Named Wojtek, and Yuck! have Annie nominations as well, so they could be nominated but I’m not certain. The Annie nod isn’t a guarantee of a nomination but is helpful and might be instructive in spite of me choosing none of the three.

Best Live Action Short Film

My Predictions:

The Ice Cream Man (c-12/17, n-12/17, o-12/17) — Borderline —
Anuja (c-12/17, n-12/17) — Borderline —
Crust (c-12/17, n-12/17) — Borderline —
A Lien (c-12/17, n-12/17) — Borderline —
An Orange from Jaffa (c-12/17, n-12/17) — Borderline —
Clodagh (c-12/17) — Borderline —
The Compatriot (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Dovecote (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Edge of Space (c-12/17) — Borderline —
I’m Not a Robot (c-12/17) — Borderline —
The Last Ranger (c-12/17) — Borderline —
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent (c-12/17) — Borderline —
The Masterpiece (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Paris 70 (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Room Taken (c-12/17) — Borderline —

Precursors:

Chocolate with Sprinkles —– (1) [33.33%] —– (– NAACP –)
Definitely Not a Monster —– (1) [33.33%] —– (– NAACP –)
The Flowers Stand Silently, Witnessing —– (1) [33.33%] —– (– BAFTA –)
If They Took us Back —– (1) [33.33%] —– (– NAACP –)
Karavidhe —– (1) [33.33%] —– (– LFCC –)
Marion —– (1) [33.33%] —– (– BAFTA –)
Milk —– (1) [33.33%] —– (– BAFTA –)
My Brother & Me —– (1) [33.33%] —– (– NAACP –)
Push —– (1) [33.33%] —– (– LFCC –)
Rock, Paper, Scissors —– (1) [33.33%] —– (– BAFTA –)
Stomach Bug —– (1) [33.33%] —– (– BAFTA –)
Superman Doesn’t Steal —– (1) [33.33%] —– (– NAACP –)

General Commentary: As with animated short films, I just don’t have any confidence in these. The voters are even more mercurial in this category sometimes. This is even more obvious in the list of precursors. Not a single one of those titles is also on the Academy’s list. You get no help from outside sources, which makes predicting that much more difficult.

Best Original Screenplay

My Predictions:

Anora – Sean Baker (c-7/21, n-7/21, o-10/20) — Near Lock —
A Real Pain – Jesse Eisenberg (c-4/11, n-12/15) — Near Lock —
The Brutalist – Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold (c-9/17, n-9/17) — Near Lock —
The Substance – Coralie Fargeat (c-10/20, n-12/15) — Good —
Challengers – Justin Kuritzkes (c-12/15, n-1/20) — Borderline —
September 5 – Moritz Binder, Alex David, Tim Fehlbaum (c-10/17) — Borderline —
Hard Truths – Mike Leigh (c-4/11) — Borderline —
His Three Daughters – Azazel Jacobs (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Saturday Night – Gil Kenan, Jason Reitman (c-10/20) — Doubtful —
Blitz – Steve McQueen (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Maria – Steven Knight (c-4/11) — Doubtful —

Precursors:

Anora —– (34) [89.47%] —– (– WGA – BAFTA – GG – Sat – AWFJ – GALECA – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – HFCS – KCFCC – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – WAFCA –)
A Real Pain —– (33) [86.84%] —– (– WGA – BAFTA – GG – Sat – Spirit – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – KCFCC – LFCC – LVFCC – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
The Brutalist —– (31) [81.58%] —– (– BAFTA – GG – Sat – AWFJ – AFCA – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – KCFCC – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
The Substance —– (28) [73.68%] —– (– BAFTA – GG – Sat – AWFJ – GALECA – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – GFCA – HCA – HFCS – IFJA – KCFCC – LFCC – MMCG – NCFC – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – WAFCA –)
Challengers —– (17) [44.74%] —– (– WGA – GALECA – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – COFC – CCA – DFC – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – MMCG – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – WAFCA –)
I Saw the TV Glow —– (5) [13.16%] —– (– Spirit – GALECA – CIC – FFC – IFJA –)
September 5 —– (5) [13.16%] —– (– CCA – GFCA – IFJA – NYFCO – UFCA –)
Civil War —– (4) [10.53%] —– (– WGA – HFCS – IFJA – KCFCC –)
A Different Man —– (4) [10.53%] —– (– Spirit – GWNY – IFJA – NCFC –)
Hard Truths —– (4) [10.53%] —– (– Sat – AWFJ – SFFC – SLFCA –)
His Three Daughters —– (4) [10.53%] —– (– Gotham – OAFFC – LVFCC – UFCA –)
Saturday Night —– (3) [7.89%] —– (– HCA – LVFCC – SLFCA –)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig —– (3) [7.89%] —– (– Sat – GFCA – SLFCA –)
Evil Does Not Exist —– (2) [5.26%] —– (– Gotham – FFC –)
My Old Ass —– (2) [5.26%] —– (– WGA – Spirit –)
All We Imagine as Light —– (1) [2.63%] —– (– AWFJ –)
Between the Temples —– (1) [2.63%] —– (– Gotham –)
Blitz —– (1) [2.63%] —– (– NAACP –)
Exhibiting Forgiveness —– (1) [2.63%] —– (– NAACP –)
Femme —– (1) [2.63%] —– (– Gotham –)
The Fire Inside —– (1) [2.63%] —– (– NAACP –)
Heretic —– (1) [2.63%] —– (– Spirit –)
Janet Planet —– (1) [2.63%] —– (– Gotham –)
Kneecap —– (1) [2.63%] —– (– BAFTA –)
Love Lies Bleeding —– (1) [2.63%] —– (– SDFC –)
Problemista —– (1) [2.63%] —– (– IFJA –)
Rebel Ridge —– (1) [2.63%] —– (– IFJA –)
Tuesday —– (1) [2.63%] —– (– UFCA –)

Locks & Near Locks: Anora, The Brutalist, and A Real Pain are the most likely nominees.

Goods: The Substance wasn’t always on the cusp of a nomination but the film has been striking at the right opportunity and that may boost it to a nomination.

Borderline/Predicted: Challengers is the fifth-most nominated original screenplay of the year and has the WGA seal of approval, which is one of the reasons I put it on the list.

Borderline/Not Predicted: Of the films that have the best chance of upsetting one of those five (most likely Challengers), are two films that have not yet shown their strength this season. Hard Truths was largely ignored by BAFTA, which is a rare occurrence for a Mike Leigh film. The Academy hardly ever overlooks him, so keep an eye out for a surprise from Hard Truths. That said, I think September 5 is the biggest question mark. There was buzz that it was building momentum but then the critics announced their nominations and it was largely left out. Then the PGA (Producers Guild of America) stepped in to support it and that gave it the boost it needed. Still, with the only major recognition from Critics Choice voters for Best Original Screenplay, it has to remain an outlier. If you see it here then a Best Picture nomination is likely.

In Summary: In the end, the five most-recognized screenplays of the year have the best chance of recognition. WGA went for three of them while the other two were ineligible. BAFTA went for five of those top five, with the fifth being an unlikely-to-place Kneecap. The WGA nod boosts Challengers ahead of September 5 and the miss at BAFTA pushes Hard Truths behind it as well. We will know fairly early if Challengers makes it through since it’s in the middle alphabetically but if its replacement isn’t Hard Truths before A Real Pain, then September 5 (or something even more shocking) is in the offing.

Best Costume Design

My Predictions:

Wicked – Paul Tazewell (c-4/11, n-4/11, o-4/11) — Lock —
Nosferatu – Linda Muir (c-4/11, n-11/19) — Borderline —
Conclave – Lisy Christl (c-4/11, n-12/15) — Borderline —
Dune: Part Two – Jacqueline West (c-4/11, n-4/11) — Borderline —
A Complete Unknown – Arianne Phillips (c-4/11, n-1/20) — Borderline —
Maria – Massimo Cantini Parrini (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Blitz – Jacqueline Durran (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga – Jenny Beavan (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice – Colleen Atwood (c-4/11) — Borderline —
The Last Showgirl – Jacqueline Getty (c-12/15) — Borderline —
Gladiator II – Janty Yates (c-4/11) — Borderline —
The Brutalist – Kate Forbes (c-9/17) — Doubtful —
The Piano Lesson – Francine Jamison-Tanchuk (c-4/11) — Doubtful —

Precursors:

Wicked —– (16) [100.00%] —– (– CDG – BAFTA – NAACP – Sat – OAFFC – CFC – CIC – CCA – HCA – HFCS – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – SFC – SLFCA –)
Nosferatu —– (14) [87.50%] —– (– CDG – BAFTA – Sat – OAFFC – CFC – CIC – CCA – HCA – HFCS – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SFC – SLFCA –)
Dune: Part Two —– (13) [81.25%] —– (– CDG – Sat – OAFFC – CFC – CIC – CCA – HCA – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – SFC – SLFCA –)
Conclave —– (10) [62.50%] —– (– CDG – BAFTA – CIC – CCA – HCA – HFCS – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – SFC –)
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga —– (7) [43.75%] —– (– CDG – CFC – HCA – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SFC –)
Maria —– (6) [37.50%] —– (– CDG – Sat – OAFFC – CFC – CCA – SLFCA –)
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice —– (5) [31.25%] —– (– CDG – OAFFC – HCA – HFCS – SDFC –)
Gladiator II —– (5) [31.25%] —– (– CDG – Sat – CCA – HCA – LVFCC –)
Blitz —– (2) [12.50%] —– (– BAFTA – Sat –)
The Substance —– (2) [12.50%] —– (– CDG – CIC –)
The Big Cigar —– (1) [6.25%] —– (– NAACP –)
The Book of Clarence —– (1) [6.25%] —– (– CDG –)
Borderlands —– (1) [6.25%] —– (– CDG –)
The Brutalist —– (1) [6.25%] —– (– HFCS –)
Challengers —– (1) [6.25%] —– (– CDG –)
A Complete Unknown —– (1) [6.25%] —– (– BAFTA –)
Emilia Pérez —– (1) [6.25%] —– (– CDG –)
The Fall Guy —– (1) [6.25%] —– (– CDG –)
Fight Night: The Million Dollar Heist —– (1) [6.25%] —– (– NAACP –)
Hundreds of Beavers —– (1) [6.25%] —– (– SLFCA –)
The Last Showgirl —– (1) [6.25%] —– (– SDFC –)
The Piano Lesson —– (1) [6.25%] —– (– NAACP –)
Saturday Night —– (1) [6.25%] —– (– CDG –)
Shirley —– (1) [6.25%] —– (– NAACP –)

Locks & Near Locks: Wicked is probably the frontrunner for the Oscar and I can’t see any of the other contenders passing it.

Goods: None.

Borderline/Predicted: Five films have varying degrees of support. Nosferatu has the benefit of being a period film, which costume designers eat up with a spoon. Dune: Part Two could be weak because it’s perceived as derivative, though even at that there were enough new frocks to remain in contention. Conclave might not seem a likely contender but with its recreation of the fancy robes of the various cardinals and dignitaries, that should be enough to push it into the room. The one I’m least certain of is A Complete Unknown as it’s a recent period, which the Academy doesn’t always love, but it was nominated at BAFTA, which is what pushes it slightly over the edge into nomination. I can’t imagine how the CDG (Costume Designers Guild) ignored it but the Academy won’t but the alternatives aren’t great.

Borderline/Not Predicted: There are several that might knock Complete Unknown out of the way. Maria, Furiosa, Beetlejuice, and Gladiator II have CDG nominations. Blitz has a BAFTA nomination. The Last Showgirl doesn’t have much, but the fancy showgirl costumes might be intriguing to voters who saw the film.

In Summary: In the end, while Nosferatu, Dune: Part Two, and Conclave are listed as borderline, I expect them to sail through easily. It’s A Complete Unknown I can’t easily defend. I could imagine any of the other borderline contenders making it in. We will know fairly early in the announcement if A Complete Unknown is on the list but if it is, expect it to do incredibly well later in the announcements.

Best Original Score

My Predictions:

Emilia Pérez – Camille, Clément Ducol (c-11/19, n-11/19, o-12/15) — Good —
The Brutalist – Daniel Blumberg (c-9/17, n-12/15) — Borderline —
The Wild Robot – Kris Bowers (c-10/22, n-10/22) — Borderline —
Conclave – Volker Bertelmann (c-4/11, n-8/20) — Borderline —
Challengers – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross (c-4/11, n-12/15) — Borderline —
Nosferatu – Robin Carolan (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Gladiator II – Harry Gregson-Williams (c-4/11) — Borderline —
The Room Next Door – Alberto Iglesias (c-9/17) — Borderline —
Wicked – John Powell, Stephen Schwartz (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Sing Sing – Bryce Dessner (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice – Danny Elfman (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Blitz – Hans Zimmer (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Alien: Romulus – Benjamin Wallfisch (c-12/17) — Doubtful —
Inside Out 2 – Andrea Datzman (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1 – John Debney (c-12/17) — Doubtful —
The Six Triple Eight – Aaron Zigman (c-12/17) — Doubtful —
Young Woman and the Sea – Amelia Warner (c-12/17) — Doubtful —
The Fire Inside – Tamar-kali (c-12/17) — Doubtful —
Babygirl – Cristobal Tapia de Veer (c-12/17) — Doubtful —
Blink Twice – Chanda Dancy (c-12/17) — Doubtful —

Precursors:

The Brutalist —– (26) [89.66%] —– (– SCL – BAFTA – GG – Sat – AFCA – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
Challengers —– (27) [93.10%] —– (– HMM – GG – Grammy – NAACP – AFCA – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – KCFCC – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
The Wild Robot —– (25) [86.21%] —– (– SCL – BAFTA – GG – Sat – AFCA – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – IFJA – KCFCC – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
Conclave —– (23) [79.31%] —– (– HMM – SCL – BAFTA – GG – Sat – COFC – CCA – DFC – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – KCFCC – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – WAFCA –)
Dune: Part Two —– (21) [72.41%] —– (– SCL – GG – Grammy – NAACP – Sat – AFCA – CFC – COFC – CCA – DFC – FFC – GFCA – HCA – HFC – HFCS – KCFCC – LVFCC – OFCS – PCC – SLFCA – UFCA –)
Emilia Pérez —– (10) [34.48%] —– (– HMM – SCL – BAFTA – GG – Sat – CCA – HCA – HFC – HFCS – SFFC –)
Nosferatu —– (11) [37.93%] —– (– BAFTA – AFCA – CFC – CIC – COFC – DFC – GWNY – NCFC – PCC – UFCA – WAFCA –)
Wicked —– (3) [10.34%] —– (– SCL – CFC – HCA –)
Gladiator II —– (2) [6.90%] —– (– HMM – SCL –)
Blitz —– (2) [6.90%] —– (– HMM – WAFCA –)
The Book of Jobs —– (1) [3.45%] —– (– SCL –)
Here After —– (1) [3.45%] —– (– SCL –)
Heretic —– (1) [3.45%] —– (– SCL –)
Meet Me Next Christmas —– (1) [3.45%] —– (– SCL –)
Queer —– (2) [6.90%] —– (– IFJA – PCC –)
The Substance —– (2) [6.90%] —– (– CIC – KCFCC –)
Winner —– (1) [3.45%] —– (– SCL –)
The American Society of Magical Negroes —– (1) [3.45%] —– (– NAACP –)
The Book of Clarence —– (1) [3.45%] —– (– NAACP –)
Civil War —– (1) [3.45%] —– (– IFJA –)
A Different Man —– (1) [3.45%] —– (– IFJA –)
Evil Does Not Exist —– (1) [3.45%] —– (– SFC –)
Flow —– (1) [3.45%] —– (– FFC –)
Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 —– (1) [3.45%] —– (– HMM –)
Nickel Boys —– (1) [3.45%] —– (– IFJA –)
The Room Next Door —– (1) [3.45%] —– (– Sat –)
Saturday Night —– (1) [3.45%] —– (– HMM –)
The Six Triple Eight —– (1) [3.45%] —– (– HMM –)
Twisters —– (1) [3.45%] —– (– IFJA –)

Locks & Near Locks: There is nothing even remotely resembling a lock here. Even the strongest contender doesn’t have any guarantees.

Goods: That strong contender is Emilia Pérez, which has an original song score that defines it. The problem is the Academy doesn’t often recognize films that are predominantly songs. It could miss but that seems unlikely.

Borderline/Predicted: The Brutalist seems like the only one of the four borderlines I’m predicting that seems a little safe. Conclave and The Wild Robot also have pretty good chances with their SCL (Society of Compsers & Lyricists) and BAFTA citations. Challengers on the other hand has none of that. It was nominated at the Golden Globes and with the HMM (Hollywood Music in Media) awards but those aren’t guarantees and with the score sounding a bit overly familiar to anyone who lived through the 1990s, it might not be inventive enough to score.

Borderline/Not Predicted: Nosferatu has the important BAFTA nomination and that could boost it in past Challengers. Gladiator II has both SCL and HMM nominations alongside Conclave and Emilia Pérez. Beyond that, The Room Next Door and Sing Sing are strong possibilities as is Wicked, which remains one of the most confusing eligible scores I’ve seen in this category.

In Summary: In the end, Challengers seems to be everywhere with its victories and while I could imagine Nosferatu sneaking in, I would be surprised. Challengers will be early in the list of nominees, so we’ll know if something else replaces immediately after Emilia Pérez since that’s where all three of the usurpers are alphabetized.

Best Adapted Screenplay

My Predictions:

A Complete Unknown – James Mangold, Jay Cocks (c-4/11, n-1/20, o-1/20) — Good —
Conclave – Peter Straughan (c-4/11, n-4/11) — Good —
Emilia Pérez – Jacques Audiard (c-10/20, n-10/20) — Good —
Nickel Boys – RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes (c-4/11, n-4/11) — Good —
Sing Sing – Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John Divine G Whitfield (c-12/15, n-12/15) — Borderline —
Dune: Part Two – Denis Villeneuve, Jon Spaihts (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Wicked – Winnie Holzman (c-4/11) — Borderline —
The Wild Robot – Chris Sanders (c-12/15) — Borderline —
Nosferatu – Robert Eggers (c-4/11) — Borderline —
The Piano Lesson – Malcolm Washington, Virgil Williams (c-4/11) — Doubtful —

Precursors:

Conclave —– (31) [91.18%] —– (– BAFTA – GG – Sat – AARP – AWFJ – GALECA – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIC – CCA – DFC – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – KCFCC – LFCC – LVFCC – NCFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – WAFCA –)
Nickel Boys —– (24) [70.59%] —– (– WGA – BAFTA – NAACP – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIC – CCA – DFC – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – IFJA – KCFCC – LVFCC – NCFC – NTFC – OFCS – SFFC – SLFCA – WAFCA –)
Sing Sing —– (23) [67.65%] —– (– BAFTA – Sat – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIC – CCA – DFC – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – KCFCC – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – SFFC – SLFCA – WAFCA –)
Dune: Part Two —– (20) [58.82%] —– (– WGA – AARP – OAFFC – AFCA – CIC – CCA – DFC – FFC – GFCA – HCA – HFCS – IFJA – KCFCC – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – SFFC – SLFCA – WAFCA –)
Wicked —– (11) [32.35%] —– (– WGA – AARP – OAFFC – AFCA – CCA – DFC – GFCA – HCA – MMCG – SLFCA – WAFCA –)
Emilia Pérez —– (8) [23.53%] —– (– BAFTA – GG – Sat – AARP – AWFJ – CCA – IFJA – SFFC –)
Nosferatu —– (7) [20.59%] —– (– AWFJ – CFC – HFCS – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – OFCS –)
A Complete Unknown —– (5) [14.71%] —– (– WGA – BAFTA – AARP – HFCS – IFJA –)
The Wild Robot —– (5) [14.71%] —– (– AWFJ – CIC – IFJA – KCFCC – SDFC –)
Hit Man —– (3) [8.82%] —– (– WGA – GWNY – HCA –)
The Piano Lesson —– (3) [8.82%] —– (– NAACP – IFJA – SDFC –)
The Beast —– (2) [5.88%] —– (– CFC – FFC –)
Oh Canada —– (1) [2.94%] —– (– GWNY –)
Queer —– (1) [2.94%] —– (– FFC –)
The Room Next Door —– (1) [2.94%] —– (– Sat –)
Russian Consul —– (1) [2.94%] —– (– Sat –)

Locks & Near Locks: While several of those with “Good” chances are probably locks, I can’t say any of them seem like near certainties. They all have liabilities that could result in them missing the final list.

Goods: The title closest to being a near lock is Conclave. It earned most of the standard precursors but was ineligible at WGA. That it made it in at BAFTA is a pretty good sign for it. Nickel Boys and Emilia Pérez are also nominated at BAFTA. The former is also nominated for WGA, which puts it close to the top of the list for a nomination while Emilia Pérez didn’t get a WGA citation as it was ineligible). These three along with late-rising WGA/BAFTA nominee A Complete Unknown make up the ranks of likely but not guaranteed.

Borderline/Predicted: Sing Sing has that BAFTA citation like Conclave and Emilia Pérez but recent issues with the film’s too-early release window suggest the film might have ended up forgotten and thus its relegation to the “borderline” category.

Borderline/Not Predicted: What could push Sing Sing out? Dune: Par Two has a WGA nomination but not one from BAFTA. The same is true of Wicked. Both are big blockbusters that can probably benefit from being widely seen but are far from certain. The Wild Robot could sneak in without any solid precursors as could Nosferatu. Only WGA nominee Hit Man seems unlikely.

In Summary: A case could be made for a list that looks identical to BAFTA but with a WGA spin and that wouldn’t be at all surprising.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

My Predictions:

A Different Man (c-12/17, n-12/17, o-1/20) — Good —
Nosferatu (c-4/11, n-4/11) — Good —
Dune: Part Two (c-4/11, n-4/11) — Borderline —
Wicked (c-4/11, n-5/19) — Borderline —
The Substance (c-12/15, n-1/20) — Borderline —
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Emilia Pérez (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Maria (c-4/11) — Borderline —
The Apprentice (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Waltzing with Brando (c-12/17) — Doubtful —

Precursors:

Wicked —– (8) [88.89%] —– (– MHG – BAFTA – Sat – CIC – CCA – HCA – HFCS – NCFC –)
The Substance —– (7) [77.78%] —– (– MHG – BAFTA – CIC – CCA – HCA – HFCS – NCFC –)
Nosferatu —– (6) [66.67%] —– (– BAFTA – CIC – CCA – HCA – HFCS – NCFC –)
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice —– (5) [55.56%] —– (– MHG – CIC – CCA – HCA – HFCS –)
A Different Man —– (4) [44.44%] —– (– MHG – CIC – CCA – NCFC –)
Dune: Part Two —– (4) [44.44%] —– (– BAFTA – CCA – HCA – NCFC –)
Emilia Pérez —– (3) [33.33%] —– (– MHG – BAFTA – HFCS –)
Shirley —– (2) [22.22%] —– (– MHG – NAACP –)
Bel-Air —– (1) [11.11%] —– (– NAACP –)
Bob Marley: One Love —– (1) [11.11%] —– (– MHG –)
The Book of Clarence —– (1) [11.11%] —– (– NAACP –)
Deadpool & Wolverine —– (1) [11.11%] —– (– MHG –)
The Deliverance —– (1) [11.11%] —– (– MHG –)
Fight Night: The Million Dollar Heist —– (1) [11.11%] —– (– NAACP –)
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga —– (1) [11.11%] —– (– HCA –)
It Ends with Us —– (1) [11.11%] —– (– MHG –)
The Last Showgirl —– (1) [11.11%] —– (– MHG –)
MaXXXine —– (1) [11.11%] —– (– MHG –)
Megalopolis —– (1) [11.11%] —– (– MHG –)
The Piano Lesson —– (1) [11.11%] —– (– NAACP –)
Smile 2 —– (1) [11.11%] —– (– MHG –)

Locks & Near Locks: Another category with no locks or near locks and that’s because there is a case to be made for almost every single title on the Academy’s shortlist.

Goods: The two films with the best chances are A Different Man and Nosferatu which are both traditional nominees in this category.

Borderline/Predicted: Dune: Part Two, Wicked, and The Substance are also traditional types of nominees. Dune: Part Two may be seen as derivative from the first film. Wicked might seem like a film without a lot of make up, forgetting about the hairstyling element of the category. The Substance seems like a traditional sort of nominee but horror struggles in this category.

Borderline/Not Predicted: Any of those three, or the first two for that matter, could be left off the list in favor of four of the remaining shortlisters. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice could suffer the same derivative argument as Dune but with a farther removal from its original win in the category, there may be some wish to recognize it again. I’m baffled by Emilia Pérez‘s nomination at BAFTA but that puts it in the running for a surprise nomination. Maria and The Apprentice have no precursor citations and, along with Waltzing with Brando don’t make a great case for being contenders as they just made people up to look like other famous people. That’s seldom a recipe for nominations success.

In Summary: This is one of the more volatile categories this year so I can imagine it going any direction. It could be the BAFTA nominees or a couple of non-BAFTA nominees. We will just have to wait and see.

Best Supporting Actor

My Predictions:

Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain (c-4/11, n-12/15, o-1/20) — Lock —
Yura Borisov – Anora (c-12/15, n-12/15) — Good —
Guy Pearce – The Brutalist (c-9/17, n-11/19) — Borderline —
Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown (c-12/15, n-1/20) — Borderline —
Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing (c-4/11, n-10/20) — Borderline —
Denzel Washington – Gladiator II (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Stanley Tucci – Conclave (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Jonathan Bailey – Wicked (c-1/8) — Borderline —
Adam Pearson – A Different Man (c-12/15) — Borderline —
Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson (c-4/11) — Doubtful —

Precursors:

Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain —– (37) [92.50%] —– (– SAG – BAFTA – Gotham – GG – Sat – Spirit – AWFJ – GALECA – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – KCFCC – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing —– (34) [85.00%] —– (– BAFTA – Gotham – Sat – Spirit – AARP – AWFJ – GALECA – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – IFJA – KCFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – UKFCA – WAFCA –)
Guy Pearce – The Brutalist —– (32) [80.00%] —– (– BAFTA – Gotham – GG – Sat – AARP – AWFJ – GALECA – AFCA – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFCS – IFJA – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
Yura Borisov – Anora —– (30) [75.00%] —– (– SAG – BAFTA – Gotham – GG – Sat – Spirit – AWFJ – GALECA – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – COFC – CCA – DFC – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – KCFCC – LFCC – MMCG – NCFC – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SFFC – UKFCA – WAFCA –)
Denzel Washington – Gladiator II —– (25) [62.50%] —– (– GG – NAACP – Sat – AARP – AWFJ – OAFFC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FFC – GFCA – HCA – HFCS – IFJA – KCFCC – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – NYFCO – SDFC – SLFCA – UKFCA – WAFCA –)
Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown —– (15) [37.50%] —– (– SAG – BAFTA – GG – Sat – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFWFCA – GWNY – HFC – HFCS – LVFCC – NTFC – OFCS – UFCA –)
Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice —– (12) [30.00%] —– (– SAG – BAFTA – GG – AFCA – FFC – HFC – HFCS – KCFCC – LFCC – PCC – SFFC – UKFCA –)
Adam Pearson – A Different Man —– (9) [22.50%] —– (– Gotham – Spirit – CFC – FFC – HFC – IFJA – KCFCC – MMCG – UKFCA –)
Stanley Tucci – Conclave —– (7) [17.50%] —– (– AARP – AWFJ – OAFFC – COFC – SDFC – SLFCA – UFCA –)
Chris Hemsworth – Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga —– (3) [7.50%] —– (– KCFCC – NCFC – SFC –)
Bill Skarsgård – Nosferatu —– (3) [7.50%] —– (– CIC – COFC – IFJA –)
Jonathan Bailey – Wicked —– (2) [5.00%] —– (– SAG – HCA –)
Brian Tyree Henry – The Fire Inside —– (2) [5.00%] —– (– Gotham – NAACP –)
Nicolas Cage – Longlegs —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– IFJA –)
Willem Dafoe – Kinds of Kindness —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– FFC –)
David Alan Grier – The American Society of Magical Negroes —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– NAACP –)
Corey Hawkins – The Piano Lesson —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– NAACP –)
Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– NAACP –)
Karren Karagulian – Anora —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– Spirit –)
Josh O’Connor – Challengers —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– SFC –)
Dennis Quaid – The Substance —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– IFJA –)
Peter Sarsgaard – September 5 —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– AARP –)

Locks & Near Locks: Kieran Culkin is the only runaway frontrunner this year and so his position as a nominee is locked in.

Goods: I would also count Yura Borisov’s quiet work in Anora as a pretty safe bet. It’s an uncomplicated performance but one that is quite affecting even if you aren’t impressed with the film itself.

Borderline/Predicted: The other three have significant drawbacks that might inhibit their chances at a nomination. Guy Pearce is in a Best Picture frontrunner, which should bolster his chances. The problem is that he missed out on a very clear citation from SAG (Screen Actors Guild). If someone as well known as Pearce and in such a film as his can’t get nominated, that doesn’t speak well for his candidacy. That said, he made it in at BAFTA and that has to account for something. Edward Norton’s footing is a little more tenuous. Before A Complete Unknown made a last-minute surge, no one was really thinking he was much of a contender but now he is. He picked up the ever-important SAG nomination and BAFTA and with the late-breaking nature of his film, he could benefit from that late word of mouth. Clarence Maclin has the opposite problem. His film came out too long ago and has been largely forgotten. He did get a nomination at BAFTA but wasn’t cited by SAG. That has to make his chances look worrisome.

Borderline/Not Predicted: Someone whose candidacy we took for granted was Denzel Washington. Beloved actor starring in a major motion picture. He seemed too good to be true. And it turns out he may have been. He lost momentum at SAG and BAFTA as both groups ignored him in spite of his name recognition. BAFTA isn’t surprising but SAG certainly is. They went instead for Jeremy Strong whose campaign had completely flagged until that mention. Stanley Tucci has the benefit of being in a Best Picture contender so he could sneak in but his performance isn’t exactly Capital-A Acting and that might mean he ends up forgotten. Jonathan Baily was nominated at SAG but I’d be shocked if he made it to the Oscar table. His film is just not as beloved in the community as it needs to be to get a coattails nomination. Adam Pearson has received a lot of attention for his performance but his film hasn’t picked up enough momentum, though it might considering co-star Sebastian Stan won the Golden Globe and is in the running in lead actor.

In Summary: This category could go just about anywhere. There isn’t a genuinely safe contender other than Culkin and after his name is read, the suspense will build.

Best Supporting Actress

My Predictions:

Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez (c-7/21, n-10/20, o-1/20) — Near Lock —
Ariana Grande-Butera – Wicked (c-4/11, n-12/15) — Borderline —
Felicity Jones – The Brutalist (c-9/17, n-12/15) — Borderline —
Isabella Rossellini – Conclave (c-4/11, n-1/20) — Borderline —
Jamie Lee Curtis – The Last Showgirl (c-1/8, n-1/20) — Borderline —
Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown (c-1/8) — Borderline —
Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Margaret Qualley – The Substance (c-12/15) — Borderline —
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Nickel Boys (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Selena Gomez – Emilia Pérez (c-7/21) — Borderline —
Joan Chen – Dìdi (c-12/15) — Doubtful —
Carol Kane – Between the Temples (c-12/15) — Doubtful —
Natasha Lyonne – His Three Daughters (c-12/15) — Doubtful —

Precursors:

Ariana Grande-Butera – Wicked —– (32) [80.00%] —– (– SAG – BAFTA – GG – Sat – GALECA – AFCA – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – HFCS – KCFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – UKFCA – WAFCA –)
Margaret Qualley – The Substance —– (28) [70.00%] —– (– GG – Sat – AWFJ – GALECA – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – KCFCC – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SFC – UKFCA –)
Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez —– (28) [70.00%] —– (– SAG – BAFTA – GG – Sat – AWFJ – GALECA – OAFFC – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FFC – GFCA – HCA – HFC – KCFCC – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson —– (23) [57.50%] —– (– SAG – Gotham – NAACP – Sat – Spirit – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFWFCA – GFCA – HCA – KCFCC – LFCC – NYFCO – SDFC – SFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
Isabella Rossellini – Conclave —– (20) [50.00%] —– (– BAFTA – GG – Sat – AARP – AWFJ – OAFFC – CCA – DFC – FFC – HFC – HFCS – LFCC – NCFC – NTFC – OFCS – PCC – SFC – SFFC – UKFCA – WAFCA –)
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Nickel Boys —– (16) [40.00%] —– (– NAACP – AARP – AWFJ – GALECA – CIC – COFC – CCA – FFC – GFCA – HCA – LVFCC – NCFC – NTFC – OFCS – SLFCA – WAFCA –)
Felicity Jones – The Brutalist —– (12) [30.00%] —– (– BAFTA – GG – Sat – AFCA – COFC – HFC – HFCS – MMCG – NCFC – NTFC – PCC – UFCA –)
Joan Chen – Dìdi —– (8) [20.00%] —– (– Spirit – AARP – AWFJ – GWNY – KCFCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC –)
Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown —– (7) [17.50%] —– (– SAG – DFWFCA – GWNY – HFCS – PCC – SLFCA – UFCA –)
Natasha Lyonne – His Three Daughters —– (6) [15.00%] —– (– Gotham – CFC – GWNY – MMCG – NYFCO – SDFC –)
Katy O’Brian – Love Lies Bleeding —– (5) [12.50%] —– (– Gotham – AFCA – DFC – NCFC – UKFCA –)
Jamie Lee Curtis – The Last Showgirl —– (3) [7.50%] —– (– SAG – BAFTA – OAFFC –)
Selena Gomez – Emilia Pérez —– (3) [7.50%] —– (– BAFTA – GG – HCA –)
Carol Kane – Between the Temples —– (3) [7.50%] —– (– Spirit – NYFCO – SFFC –)
Brigette Lundy-Paine – I Saw the TV Glow —– (3) [7.50%] —– (– Gotham – Spirit – GALECA –)
Michele Austin – Hard Truths —– (2) [5.00%] —– (– GALECA – LFCC –)
Anna Baryshnikov – Love Lies Bleeding —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– FFC –)
Jessie Buckley – Wicked Little Liars —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– SDFC –)
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Exhibiting Forgiveness —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– NAACP –)
Elle Fanning – A Complete Unknown —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– LVFCC –)
Kani Kusruti – Girls Will Be Girls —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– Spirit –)
Lesley Manville – Queer —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– AARP –)
Connie Nielsen – Gladiator II —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– AARP –)
Ebony Obsidian – The Six Triple Eight —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– NAACP –)
Tilda Swinton – Problemista —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– IFJA –)
Lynn Whitfield – Albany Road —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– NAACP –)

Locks & Near Locks: Let’s start with the Golden Globe winner, Zoe Saldaña. Her film is sure to come up with a very strong nomination tally and she will be leading the way. It would be a monumental shock if the SAG and BAFTA-nominated actor weren’t on Oscar’s final ballot.

Goods: Ariana Grande almost fits this bill but not quite. With the weakness of Wicked at BAFTA, I wonder if the film has a big enough following to score major nominations. Still, I’ll cover her here rather than in the borderline section since I’m pretty sure she’ll be nominated (and she is known as “Glinda the Good” officially).

Borderline/Predicted: I’m less sure of these other three nominees. Each have significant liabilities. Felicity Jones failed to earn a SAG nomination, which is a big red flag. That said, she did make the cut at BAFTA but that was in a six-wide field. Some are saying that because her performance fell in the latter half of her film and voters weren’t able to make it through the nearly-four-hour epic that she’ll be harmed by that and I don’t buy it. The lack of SAG nomination is the most telling. Isabella Rossellini is film royalty who has never been recognized by the Academy. The citation at BAFTA was a good sign but that miss at SAG was also telling. You know who made both BAFTA and SAG and no one thought was a contender until then? Jamie Lee Curtis. Her film was thought to be a dark horse contender for Best Actress but she’s emerged as the potential only nominee from the film. With her recent Oscar win, she may be riding her own coattails so she’s got a good shot now.

Borderline/Not Predicted: Monica Barbaro was nominated at SAG, showing her film’s strength. Danielle Deadwyler was also nominated at SAG but her film has barely been an Oscar player. Her early citations may have boosted her optics but she might not make it through. Margaret Qualley didn’t pick up either and is only coasting on nominations fumes thanks to her film’s broad support. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor is in a potential Best Picture Oscar nominee but one that was ignored by BAFTA almost entirely. She didn’t even get a SAG nomination which puts her candidacy in danger. Selena Gomez was an early contender and the appreciation for Emilia Pérez put her on the radar but she quickly faded with minimal recognition outside of the Globes. We also know that double nominations in a single acting category for films are rare. That said, BAFTA resuscitated her chances and she now remains a strong potential nominee.

In Summary: That said, it’s hard to qualify any of these women as sure things and with so many contenders for so few slots, this is likely to be the category with the most shocking inclusions and omissions of the first half of the morning.

Group 2

After the break, the Academy will announce its next batch of contenders, so let’s do the same.

Best Documentary Short Subject

My Predictions:

Once Upon a Time in Ukraine (c-12/17, n-12/17, o-12/17) — Borderline —
Chasing Roo (c-12/17, n-12/17) — Borderline —
Death by Numbers (c-12/17, n-12/17) — Borderline —
Keeper (c-12/17, n-12/17) — Borderline —
Seat 31: Zooey Zephyr (c-12/17, n-12/17) — Borderline —
Eternal Father (c-12/17) — Borderline —
I Am Ready, Warden (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Incident (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Instruments of a Beating Heart (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Makayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World (c-12/17) — Borderline —
The Only Girl in the Orchestra (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Planetwalker (c-12/17) — Borderline —
The Quilters (c-12/17) — Borderline —
A Swim Lesson (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Until He’s Back (c-12/17) — Borderline —

Precursors:

Camille A. Brown: Giant Steps —– (1) [50.00%] —– (– NAACP –)
Danielle Scott: Ancestral Call —– (1) [50.00%] —– (– NAACP –)
How to Sue the Klan —– (1) [50.00%] —– (– NAACP –)
Iranian Yellow Pages —– (1) [50.00%] —– (– LFCC –)
Judging Juries —– (1) [50.00%] —– (– NAACP –)
Silent Killer —– (1) [50.00%] —– (– NAACP –)
We Beg to Differ —– (1) [50.00%] —– (– LFCC –)

General Commentary: The few precursors that nominate short films didn’t have a single title from the Academy’s list. That makes it hard to pick a potential nominee. That said, I took a guess based on content but the Academy’s voters are sometimes fickle and there’s no telling what they might come up with.

Best Animated Feature

My Predictions:

The Wild Robot – DreamWorks (c-4/11, n-4/11, o-4/11) — Lock —
Flow – Sideshow (c-10/20, n-10/20) — Lock —
Inside Out 2 – Pixar (c-4/11, n-4/11) — Lock —
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl – Aardman Animation (c-7/21, n-7/21) — Near Lock —
Memoir of a Snail – IFC Films (c-7/21, n-12/15) — Good —
Kensuke’s Kingdom – TBD (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Kung Fu Panda 4 – DreamWorks (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Moana 2 – Disney (c-4/11) — Borderline —
That Christmas – TBD (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Transformers One – TBD (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Mars Express – GKIDS (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Look Back – TBD (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Chicken for Linda! – TBD (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Despicable Me 4 – Illumination (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Ultraman: Rising – TBD (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Piece by Piece – Focus Features (c-6/16) — Borderline —
Art College 1994 – TBD (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Captain Avispa – TBD (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
The Colors Within – TBD (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie – TBD (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
The Garfield Movie – Columbia Pictures (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Ghost Cat Anzu – TBD (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
The Glassworker – TBD (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
The Imaginary – TBD (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Living Large – TBD (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim – Warner Bros. (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Rocket Club: Across the Cosmos – TBD (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Sirocco and the Kingdom of Winds – TBD (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Spellbound – TBD (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Sultana’s Dream – TBD (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Thelma the Unicorn – TBD (c-11/21) — Doubtful —

Precursors:

The Wild Robot —– (37) [102.78%] —– (– Annie – PGA – BAFTA – GG – NAACP – Sat – AWFJ – GALECA – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – KCFCC – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
Flow —– (35) [97.22%] —– (– Annie – PGA – BAFTA – GG – Sat – AWFJ – GALECA – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – IFJA – KCFCC – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
Inside Out 2 —– (35) [97.22%] —– (– Annie – PGA – BAFTA – GG – NAACP – Sat – AWFJ – GALECA – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – KCFCC – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
Memoir of a Snail —– (31) [86.11%] —– (– Annie – GG – Sat – AWFJ – GALECA – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – KCFCC – LFCC – LVFCC – NCFC – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl —– (28) [77.78%] —– (– Annie – PGA – BAFTA – GG – Sat – AWFJ – GALECA – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – KCFCC – LFCC – LVFCC – NYFCO – OFCS – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
Transformers One —– (8) [22.22%] —– (– HCA – HFCS – MMCG – NCFC – NTFC – PCC – SDFC – SFC –)
Moana 2 —– (4) [11.11%] —– (– PGA – GG – NAACP – HFCS –)
Hundreds of Beavers —– (2) [5.56%] —– (– AWFJ – SDFC –)
Kung Fu Panda 4 —– (2) [5.56%] —– (– Annie – NAACP –)
Look Back —– (2) [5.56%] —– (– Annie – IFJA –)
Mars Express —– (2) [5.56%] —– (– Annie – IFJA –)
Piece by Piece —– (2) [5.56%] —– (– NAACP – MMCG –)
Chicken for Linda! —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– Annie –)
Kensuke’s Kingdom —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– Annie –)
Mobile Suit Gundam Seed Freedom —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– Sat –)
That Christmas —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– Annie –)
Ultraman: Rising —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– Annie –)

Locks & Near Locks: The shocking fact that four of the five potential nominees are locks or near locks is astounding. Few slates in Oscar history have felt this solid. Only Wallace & Gromit seems to have a shot at being dislodged from this set of four. The rest are fairly certain at this point.

Goods: Memoir of a Snail has struggled to earn attention in the shadow of these other four behemoths. Its main claim to success is that it’s the only non-traditional title on this list. The rest fit into very specific buckets that the Academy loves to recognize. Memoir isn’t on that list. That said, it secured the important Annie nomination but so many other films did too. BAFTA decided only to recognize four, which left it off the list but the other four intact.

Borderline/Predicted: None.

Borderline/Not Predicted: There are several films that could take over in case Memoir of a Snail doesn’t make it but there are too many to mention. All of them have some form of precursor citation that could benefit them but none of them have been quite as dominant with the precursors as these five. For example, Wallace has 28 citations and the next film down is Transformers One with 8. Still, Moana 2 got a PGA nomination and that could benefit that film more than others.

In Summary: There’s a lot of up-in-the-air categories but this really isn’t one of them. One surprise is possible but that’s it and even that’s not terribly likely.

Best Actor

My Predictions:

Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown (c-4/11, n-4/11, o-5/19) — Near Lock —
Adrien Brody – The Brutalist (c-9/17, n-11/19) — Lock —
Ralph Fiennes – Conclave (c-4/11, n-5/19) — Near Lock —
Colman Domingo – Sing Sing (c-4/11, n-4/11) — Near Lock —
Daniel Craig – Queer (c-4/11, n-9/17) — Borderline —
Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Hugh Grant – Heretic (c-12/15) — Borderline —
Sebastian Stan – A Different Man (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain (c-12/15) — Borderline —
Peter Sarsgaard – September 5 (c-10/17) — Doubtful —
John David Washington – The Piano Lesson (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Keith Kupferer – Ghostlight (c-12/15) — Doubtful —

Precursors:

Colman Domingo – Sing Sing —– (40) [100.00%] —– (– SAG – BAFTA – Gotham – GG – NAACP – Sat – Spirit – AARP – AWFJ – GALECA – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – KCFCC – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – UKFCA – WAFCA –)
Adrien Brody – The Brutalist —– (37) [92.50%] —– (– SAG – BAFTA – Gotham – GG – Sat – AARP – AWFJ – GALECA – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
Ralph Fiennes – Conclave —– (34) [85.00%] —– (– SAG – BAFTA – GG – Sat – AARP – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FFC – GFCA – HCA – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – KCFCC – LFCC – LVFCC – NCFC – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – UKFCA – WAFCA –)
Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Uknown —– (30) [75.00%] —– (– SAG – BAFTA – GG – Sat – OAFFC – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – HFCS – KCFCC – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
Daniel Craig – Queer —– (21) [52.50%] —– (– SAG – GG – Sat – AARP – AWFJ – GALECA – AFCA – CCA – FFC – IFJA – LFCC – MMCG – NCFC – NTFC – PCC – SDFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – UKFCA – WAFCA –)
Hugh Grant – Heretic —– (15) [37.50%] —– (– BAFTA – GG – Sat – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CIC – CCA – DFWFCA – GWNY – HFC – HFCS – LVFCC – MMCG – SLFCA –)
Keith Kupferer – Ghostlight —– (7) [17.50%] —– (– Gotham – Sat – Spirit – CFC – GFCA – GWNY – SFC –)
Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice —– (7) [17.50%] —– (– BAFTA – GG – Spirit – AWFJ – CIC – NYFCO – UKFCA –)
Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain —– (4) [10.00%] —– (– GG – Sat – HCA – IFJA –)
Justice Smith – I Saw the TV Glow —– (4) [10.00%] —– (– Gotham – Spirit – GALECA – IFJA –)
Sebastian Stan – A Different Man —– (4) [10.00%] —– (– GG – COFC – DFC – OFCS –)
Glen Powell – Hit Man —– (3) [7.50%] —– (– GG – Sat – HCA –)
Kingsley Ben-Adir – Bob Marley: One Love —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– NAACP –)
Timothée Chalamet – Dune: Part Two —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– KCFCC –)
Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– FFC –)
David Dastmalchian – Late Night with the Devil —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– KCFCC –)
Ryan Gosling – The Fall Guy —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– Sat –)
André Holland – Exhibiting Forgiveness —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– NAACP –)
Michael Keaton – Beetlejuice Beetlejuice —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– Sat –)
Gabriel LaBelle – Saturday Night —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– GG –)
Jude Lawrence – The Order —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– AARP –)
Martin Lawrence – Bad Boys: Ride or Die —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– NAACP –)
George MacKay – The Beast —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– SFC –)
John Magaro – LeRoy, Texas —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– Sat –)
Josh O’Connor – Challengers —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– FFC –)
Aaron Pierre – Rebel Ridge —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– IFJA –)
Jesse Plemmons – Kinds of Kindness —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– GG –)
John David Washington – The Piano Lesson —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– NAACP –)

Locks & Near Locks: Adrien Brody, Timothée Chalamet, Ralph Fiennes, and Colman Domingo are all fairly strong contenders with SAG and BAFTA nominations. It’s possible Domingo doesn’t benefit from the Sing Sing release mistake and Fiennes’ performance might be considered too subtle but those are the only negative factors against either of them.

Goods: None.

Borderline/Predicted: Daniel Craig, in spite of being the fifth-most cited actor during the precursors along with Globe and SAG nominations, still feels like a weak link. His film was poorly received and that might put it at the bottom of most screener piles, which could cost him votes. It might be a career redefining performance but it might also not be his time. He didn’t get in at BAFTA and there lies the main reason for pessimism.

Borderline/Not Predicted: There’s an opening then for both actors who got nominated at BAFTA. Hugh Grant is another actor with a long career who hasn’t been fairly recognized in the past. Heretic is horror, though and that alone may doom his candidacy even if it was a well received one like The Substance. Sebastian Stan is the other potential fly in Craig’s ointment. With the one-two punch of The Apprentice and A Different Man along with the strong acceptance speech he made at the Globes, he could well have impressed enough people to cite him. The problem is for which film? The Apprentice might make a good poke in the eye of the new president but A Different Man might be the more appealing performance. BAFTA picked him in The Apprentice but they don’t have to worry about retaliation. There’s also a case to be made for A Real Pain director, writer, and star Jesse Eisenberg but apart from a Golden Globe nomination, there isn’t much to support his campaign.

In Summary: While I’m fairly certain Craig can still make the list, I wouldn’t be shocked to see either of the other three. Stan may well cancel himself out and a surprise nomination for Grant, who incidentally claims it’s not one of his best performances, would be well received by many.

Best Production Design

My Predictions:

The Brutalist – Judy Becker; Patricia Cuccio, Mercédesz Nagyváradi (c-9/17, n-12/15, o-1/20) — Near Lock —
Dune: Part Two – Patrice Vermette (c-4/11, n-4/11) — Lock —
Wicked – Nathan Crowley; Lee Sandales (c-4/11, n-4/11) — Near Lock —
Conclave – Suzie Davies (c-4/11, n-10/20) — Borderline —
Nosferatu – Craig Lathrop; Beatrice Brentnerova (c-4/11, n-1/20) — Borderline —
The Substance – Stanislas Reydelle; Cécilia Blom (c-12/15) — Borderline —
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga – Colin Gibson; Katie Sharrock (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice – Mark Scruton; David Morison (c-4/11) — Borderline —
A Complete Unknown – François Audouy; Regina Graves (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Gladiator II – Arthur Max; Jille Azis, Elli Griff (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Blitz – Adam Stockhausen; Anna Pinnock (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Alien: Romulus – Naaman Marshal; Zsuzsanna Sipos (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Megalopolis – Beth Mickle, Bradley Rubin; Lisa K. Sessions (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
The Piano Lesson – David J. Bomba; Patrick Cassidy (c-4/11) — Doubtful —

Precursors:

The Brutalist —– (18) [105.88%] —– (– ADG – SDSA – BAFTA – Sat – CFC – CIC – CCA – FFC – GFCA – HCA – HFCS – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – WAFCA –)
Dune: Part Two —– (18) [105.88%] —– (– ADG – SDSA – BAFTA – Sat – CFC – CCA – FFC – GFCA – HCA – HFCS – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – WAFCA –)
Wicked —– (18) [105.88%] —– (– ADG – SDSA – BAFTA – Sat – CFC – CIC – CCA – GFCA – HCA – HFCS – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – WAFCA –)
Nosferatu —– (17) [100.00%] —– (– ADG – SDSA – BAFTA – Sat – CFC – CIC – CCA – GFCA – HCA – HFCS – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – SFFC – SLFCA – WAFCA –)
Conclave —– (13) [76.47%] —– (– ADG – SDSA – BAFTA – Sat – CIC – CCA – FFC – HCA – LVFCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA –)
Gladiator II —– (7) [41.18%] —– (– ADG – SDSA – Sat – CCA – HCA – LVFCC – WAFCA –)
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga —– (6) [35.29%] —– (– ADG – SDSA – GFCA – NCFC – OFCS – SFC –)
The Substance —– (5) [29.41%] —– (– ADG – SDSA – CFC – CIC – HFCS –)
Alien: Romulus —– (2) [11.76%] —– (– ADG – SDSA –)
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice —– (2) [11.76%] —– (– ADG – SDSA –)
Civil War —– (2) [11.76%] —– (– ADG – SDSA –)
A Complete Unknown —– (2) [11.76%] —– (– ADG – SDSA –)
Emilia Pérez —– (2) [11.76%] —– (– ADG – SDSA –)
Maria —– (2) [11.76%] —– (– SDSA – FFC –)
Anora —– (1) [5.88%] —– (– SDSA –)
The Beast —– (1) [5.88%] —– (– FFC –)
Deadpool & Wolverine —– (1) [5.88%] —– (– SDSA –)
Kinds of Kindness —– (1) [5.88%] —– (– SDSA –)
Metalopolis —– (1) [5.88%] —– (– SDSA –)
Nightbitch —– (1) [5.88%] —– (– SDSA –)
Saturday Night —– (1) [5.88%] —– (– ADG –)
Twisters —– (1) [5.88%] —– (– ADG –)
Wolfs —– (1) [5.88%] —– (– SDSA –)
Nickel Boys —– (0) [0.00%] —– (—)

Locks & Near Locks: The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, and Wicked seem to be fairly certain nominees. All of them have the trifecta of ADG (Art Directors Guild), Set Decorators Society of America (SDSA), and BAFTA nominations. They all present vast, detailed sets that have gained plenty of acclaim. There’s little in the way of any of the films getting nominated.

Goods: None.

Borderline/Predicted: Conclave recreates internal areas of the Vatican, areas not often seen in real life. That alone could bolster its chances. The triple citation ADG/SDSA/BAFTA also helps. The same is true of Nosferatu, which got all three. They don’t have a lot of hindrances but they could easily fall victim to the other films on the list.

Borderline/Not Predicted: While that’s all of the BAFTA nominees, there are several films that also got ADG/SDSA nominations by benefit of their being three-plus categories with each. That’s why many of these are borderline and honestly, I couldn’t pick which one of them could overcome. Having said that, the futuristic The Substance and Furiosa are likely candidates as are Beetlejuice Beetlejuice and Gladiator II. Cases could be made for A Complete Unknown and Blitz as well.

In Summary: A carry-over of the BAFTA five is most likely but swapping out a Conclave or Nosferatu for another film is also possible.

Best Original Song

My Predictions:

El Mal – Emilia Pérez (c-11/19, n-12/17, o-1/20) — Lock —
Compress/Repress – Challengers (c-12/17, n-1/20) — Near Lock —
Kiss the Sky – The Wild Robot (c-12/17, n-12/17) — Good —
Like a Bird – Sing Sing (c-12/17, n-1/20) — Borderline —
The Journey – The Six Triple Eight (c-12/17, n-12/17) — Borderline —
Mi Camino – Emilia Pérez (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Sick in the Head – Kneecap (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Harper and Will Go West – Will & Harper (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Forbidden Road – Better Man (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Beyond – Moana 2 (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Never Too Late – Elton John: Never Too Late (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Winter Coat – Blitz (c-12/17) — Doubtful —
Out of Oklahoma – Twisters (c-12/17) — Doubtful —
Piece by Piece – Piece by Piece (c-6/16) — Doubtful —
Tell Me It’s You – Mufasa: The Lion King (c-12/17) — Doubtful —

Precursors:

El Mal – Emilia Pérez —– (13) [100.00%] —– (– HMM – SCL – SDSA – GG – Sat – CCA – DFC – GFCA – HCA – HFC – HFCS – LVFCC – NCFC –)
Kiss the Sky – The Wild Robot —– (10) [76.92%] —– (– GG – Sat – CIC – CCA – DFC – GFCA – HCA – HFC – LVFCC – NCFC –)
Compress/Repress – Challengers —– (9) [69.23%] —– (– HMM – GG – CIC – CCA – DFC – GFCA – HCA – HFC – NCFC –)
Mi Camino – Emilia Pérez —– (8) [61.54%] —– (– HMM – SCL – SDSA – GG – Sat – CCA – HCA – LVFCC –)
Beautiful That Way – The Last Showgirl —– (7) [53.85%] —– (– SCL – SDSA – GG – CIC – CCA – HFCS – LVFCC –)
Like a Bird – Sing Sing —– (6) [46.15%] —– (– CIC – DFC – HFC – HFCS – LVFCC – NCFC –)
Harper and Will Go West – Will & Harper —– (5) [38.46%] —– (– CCA – DFC – HCA – HFC – NCFC –)
Forbidden Road – Better Man —– (4) [30.77%] —– (– HMM – SCL – SDSA – GG –)
The Journey – The Six Triple Eight —– (4) [30.77%] —– (– HMM – SCL – SDSA – Sat –)
Winter Coat – Blitz —– (4) [30.77%] —– (– HMM – SCL – SDSA – Sat –)
Beyond – Moana 2 —– (3) [23.08%] —– (– SCL – SDSA – HFCS –)
Never Too Late – Elton John: Never Too Late —– (3) [23.08%] —– (– SCL – SDSA – Sat –)
Out of Oklahoma – Twisters —– (3) [23.08%] —– (– HMM – SCL – SDSA –)
Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma – Twisters —– (2) [15.38%] —– (– Grammy – GFCA –)
The Idea of You – The Idea of You —– (1) [7.69%] —– (– HMM –)
Love Will Survive – The Tattooist of Auschwitz —– (1) [7.69%] —– (– Grammy –)
Perioyne – The Goat Life —– (1) [7.69%] —– (– HMM –)
Piece by Piece – Piece by Piece —– (1) [7.69%] —– (– HCA –)
Sick in the Head – Kneecap —– (1) [7.69%] —– (– GFCA –)
Starburned and Unkissed – I Saw the TV Glow —– (1) [7.69%] —– (– CIC –)
We’re Back – Moana 2 —– (1) [7.69%] —– (– HFCS –)

Locks & Near Locks: “El Mal,” a mediocre song at best, has been the defining title from Emilia Pérez and it would be surprising if it didn’t make the cut. The same is true of “Compress/Repress,” which literally sounds like every popular thing Nine Inch Nails ever wrote. Still, they are well liked and will very likely be recognized.

Goods: “Kiss the Sky” is also a very likely contender. I wasn’t impressed with it initially but it’s the kind of song that gets nominated but never wins. Still, it’s probably assured a place on the list.

Borderline/Predicted: “Like a Bird” would either benefit from Sing Sing being a Best Picture nominee or will be forgotten for the same reason. It’s inspirational, which could get it through the final obstacle. Finally, there’s “The Journey.” You might be wondering why this song from a film that isn’t contending much at the Oscars would be a nominee. Two words: Dianne Warren. She’s pulled off some of the weakest nominations in this category’s history and still hasn’t won. She’s like John Williams in Original Score, they just can’t stop nominating her.

Borderline/Not Predicted: There are six songs that could easily push out “Like a Bird” or “The Journey.” “Mi Camino” will benefit from its film’s popularity. “Sick in the Head” is one of those songs in a film about the music industry, which are catnip to Academy voters. “Harper and Will Go West” is one of two documentary contenders on the list and there’s usually one that makes it through, though I thought it initially might be “Never Too Late” by Oscar winner Elton John, but it may be too late after all. “Forbidden Road” might have done better were it not for “Better Man” crashing at the box office. Then there’s “Beyond,” one of the few songs on the shortlist that actually sounded like it belonged on this list. There are others possible but these are the most likely of them all.

In Summary: With this category, there’s always a groaner and a shocker. I think I’ve covered that with “The Journey” but the shocker I can’t predict. Then again, would any of the borderlines be shocking? No.

Best Sound

My Predictions:

Dune: Part Two (c-4/11, n-4/11, o-4/11) — Near Lock —
Wicked (c-4/11, n-5/19) — Good —
Gladiator II (c-4/11, n-4/11) — Borderline —
A Complete Unknown (c-12/17, n-12/17) — Borderline —
Emilia Pérez (c-11/19, n-12/17) — Borderline —
Blitz (c-4/11) — borderline —
Alien: Romulus (c-4/11) — Borderline —
The Wild Robot (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Deadpool & Wolverine (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Joker: Folie à Deux (c-12/17) — Borderline —

Precursors:

Wicked —– (9) [100.00%] —– (– CAS – MPSE – BAFTA – Sat – DFC – HCA – HFCS – NCFC – SDFC –)
Dune: Part Two —– (8) [88.89%] —– (– CAS – MPSE – BAFTA – Sat – DFC – HCA – NCFC – SDFC –)
Gladiator II —– (5) [55.56%] —– (– CAS – BAFTA – Sat – HCA – HFCS –)
A Complete Unknown —– (4) [44.44%] —– (– CAS – MPSE – Sat – HFCS –)
Nosferatu —– (4) [44.44%] —– (– MPSE – DFC – HFCS – NCFC –)
Alien: Romulus —– (3) [33.33%] —– (– MPSE – DFC – SDFC –)
The Substance —– (3) [33.33%] —– (– BAFTA – DFC – HFCS –)
Challengers —– (2) [22.22%] —– (– HCA – NCFC –)
Civil War —– (2) [22.22%] —– (– NCFC – SDFC –)
Deadpool & Wolverine —– (2) [22.22%] —– (– CAS – MPSE –)
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga —– (2) [22.22%] —– (– MPSE – HCA –)
Inside Out 2 —– (2) [22.22%] —– (– CAS – MPSE –)
Mufasa: The Lion King —– (2) [22.22%] —– (– CAS – MPSE –)
A Quiet Place: Day One —– (2) [22.22%] —– (– HCA – SDFC –)
Will & Harper —– (2) [22.22%] —– (– CAS – MPSE –)
Blitz —– (1) [11.11%] —– (– BAFTA –)
The Blue Angels —– (1) [11.11%] —– (– MPSE –)
Dahomey —– (1) [11.11%] —– (– MPSE –)
Elton John: Never Too Late —– (1) [11.11%] —– (– MPSE –)
Emilia Pérez —– (1) [11.11%] —– (– MPSE –)
The Girl with the Needle —– (1) [11.11%] —– (– MPSE –)
The Goat Life —– (1) [11.11%] —– (– MPSE –)
Kneecap —– (1) [11.11%] —– (– MPSE –)
The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim —– (1) [11.11%] —– (– MPSE –)
Moana 2 —– (1) [11.11%] —– (– CAS –)
Music by John Williams —– (1) [11.11%] —– (– MPSE –)
Saturday Night —– (1) [11.11%] —– (– MPSE –)
September 5 —– (1) [11.11%] —– (– MPSE –)
Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story —– (1) [11.11%] —– (– MPSE –)
Twilight of the Warriors: Walled In —– (1) [11.11%] —– (– Sat –)
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl —– (1) [11.11%] —– (– CAS –)
The Wild Robot —– (1) [11.11%] —– (– MPSE –)

Locks & Near Locks: Dune: Part Two is probably the frontrunner for the win, so its nomination is likely assured.

Goods: Wicked is one of two musicals this year that could get nominations and I would expect it to be more likely since it secured CAS (Cinema Audio Society), MPSE (Motion Picture Sound Editors), and BAFTA nominations.

Borderline/Predicted: Gladiator II was in at CAS but out at MPSE while Emilia Pérez as in at MPSE but out at CAS. These are the reasons they are sitting on the edge of dismissal. I also have A Complete Unknown as an outlier in spite of getting both CAS and MPSE. It didn’t enter the conversation at BAFTA, though The Substance did and it didn’t make the Oscar shortlist.

Borderline/Not Predicted: Of the remaining borderline nominees, Blitz is the only one with a BAFTA nomination. That said, it didn’t get nominated at CAS or MPSE so it might not have enough support to make it through since BAFTA is British and the Academy isn’t. Any of the other shortlisters could make the list as well. Alien: Romulus and The Wild Robot are both nominated at MPSE but nowhere else. Deadpool & Wolverine have both CSA and MPSE, which is a point in its favor but it’s also a genre that the Academy tends to ignore. The final title on the list, Joker 2 didn’t get a nomination anywhere so it’s probably better listed as “Doubtful” but I just can’t imagine it being that far out of the race.

In Summary: The BAFTA list can’t translate over exactly but the CAS list could. Ultimately, any of these shortlisters is capable of pulling a nomination. We’ll just have to see which tomorrow morning.

Best Visual Effects

My Predictions:

Dune: Part Two (c-4/11, n-4/11, o-4/11) — Lock —
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (c-4/11, n-11/19) — Good —
Better Man (c-12/17, n-12/17) — Good —
Wicked (c-4/11, n-4/11) — Borderline —
Gladiator II (c-4/11, n-1/20) — Borderline —
Mufasa: The Lion King (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Twisters (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Civil War (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Deadpool & Wolverine (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Alien: Romulus (c-4/11) — Borderline —

Precursors:

Dune: Part Two —– (20) [100.00%] —– (– VES – BAFTA – Sat – OAFFC – CFC – CIC – CCA – DFC – FFC – HCA – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – SFC – SLFCA – UFCA –)
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes —– (17) [85.00%] —– (– VES – BAFTA – Sat – OAFFC – CIC – CCA – DFC – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – SFC – SLFCA – UFCA –)
Wicked —– (13) [65.00%] —– (– BAFTA – Sat – OAFFC – CFC – CCA – DFC – FFC – HCA – HFC – HFCS – LVFCC – OFCS – SFC –)
The Substance —– (10) [50.00%] —– (– OAFFC – CFC – CCA – DFC – FFC – IFJA – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – UFCA –)
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga —– (9) [45.00%] —– (– OAFFC – CFC – DFC – HCA – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SFC – SLFCA –)
Nosferatu —– (8) [40.00%] —– (– VES – CIC – HFC – IFJA – NCFC – SDFC – SLFCA – UFCA –)
Twisters —– (6) [30.00%] —– (– VES – CIC – HCA – HFC – HFCS – IFJA –)
Better Man —– (5) [25.00%] —– (– VES – BAFTA – CCA – IFJA – UFCA –)
Gladiator II —– (5) [25.00%] —– (– BAFTA – Sat – CCA – HCA – HFCS –)
Alien: Romulus —– (4) [20.00%] —– (– HFC – LVFCC – SDFC – SLFCA –)
Hundreds of Beavers —– (3) [15.00%] —– (– CFC – FFC – IFJA –)
Civil War —– (2) [10.00%] —– (– VES – CIC –)
Mufasa: The Lion King —– (2) [10.00%] —– (– VES – Sat –)
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice —– (1) [5.00%] —– (– HCA –)
Blitz —– (1) [5.00%] —– (– VES –)
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire —– (1) [5.00%] —– (– IFJA –)
Nosferatu —– (1) [5.00%] —– (– VES –)
Tuesday —– (1) [5.00%] —– (– FFC –)
Twilight of the Warriors: Walled In —– (1) [5.00%] —– (– Sat –)
Young Woman and the Sea —– (1) [5.00%] —– (– VES –)

Locks & Near Locks: Dune: Part Two couldn’t lose out on this nomination in a million years. It’s in like Flynn and will likely take home the Oscar too.

Goods: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes and Better Man both sport well regarded motion capture technology and with the benefit of also securing VES (Visual Effects Society) and BAFTA nominations, they should have a fairly easy path forward.

Borderline/Predicted: Wicked and Gladiator II were both nominated at BAFTA but neither earned citations from the VES, which makes their chances slightly slimmer. Both still have strong profiles and could make it through but there is always a glimmer of doubt where this category is concerned.

Borderline/Not Predicted: All of the shortlisters have the chance of making it through. They have some minor issues between them but they are all plausible nominees. Mufasa: The Lion King isn’t getting the same benefit of the doubt that its predecessor did. It’s now being openly called animation rather than visual effects. That might not prevent its nomination but the VES nod didn’t turn into a BAFTA nomination so it may not have what it takes. Twisters could follow its predecessor to a nomination but the VES mention didn’t transcend to BAFTA. Civil War was also a VES pick without a BAFTA nod. That leaves Deadpool & Wolverine and Alien: Romulus, neither of which even got a VES nod, so they are probably not going to make it.

In Summary: Ultimately, the question is not just an industry one but a difficulty one. I could see most of the nominees making it through due to the difficulty of the work rather than its fanciness. Most of the titles that won’t get nominated weren’t as showy or might be deemed too derivative. We’ll see shortly.

Best Film Editing

My Predictions:

Dune: Part Two – Joe Walker (c-4/11, n-4/11, o-1/20) — Good —
Anora – Sean Baker (c-7/21, n-7/21) — Good —
Challengers – Marco Costa (c-12/15, n-1/20) — Borderline —
Emilia Pérez – Juliette Welfling (c-12/15, n-12/15) — Borderline —
Conclave – Nick Emerson (c-4/11, n-4/11) — Borderline —
The Brutalist – Dávid Jancsó (c-9/17) — Borderline —
Civil War – Jake Roberts (c-12/15) — Borderline —
The Substance – Jérôme Eltabet, Coralie Fargeat, Valentin Féron (c-12/15) — Borderline —
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga – Margaret Sixel (c-4/11) — Borderline —
September 5 – Hansjörg Weißbrich (c-10/17) — Borderline —
A Complete Unknown – Andrew Buckland, Scott Morris (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Wicked – Myron Kerstein (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Gladiator II – Sam Restivo, Claire Simpson (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
A Real Pain – Robert Nassau (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Nosferatu – Louise Ford (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Nickel Boys – Nicholas Monsour (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Maria – Sofía Subercaseaux (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Hard Truths – Tania Reddin (c-4/11) — Doubtful —

Precursors:

Dune: Part Two —– (18) [78.26%] —– (– ACE – BAFTA – Sat – AFCA – CIC – CCA – GWNY – HCA – HFCS – IFJA – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – SFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
The Brutalist —– (17) [73.91%] —– (– Sat – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – GWNY – HFCS – IFJA – LVFCC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
Anora —– (16) [69.57%] —– (– ACE – BAFTA – Sat – AWFJ – AFCA – CFC – COFC – CCA – HCA – IFJA – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – WAFCA –)
Challengers —– (14) [60.87%] —– (– ACE – OAFFC – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – GWNY – HCA – IFJA – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – SFFC –)
Conclave —– (14) [60.87%] —– (– ACE – BAFTA – Sat – AWFJ – OAFFC – COFC – CCA – HCA – HFCS – IFJA – LVFCC – NCFC – SFFC – WAFCA –)
Nickel Boys —– (11) [47.83%] —– (– OAFFC – CFC – CIC – COFC – GWNY – IFJA – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SLFCA – UFCA –)
The Substance —– (8) [34.78%] —– (– ACE – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – IFJA – OFCS – SFC – UFCA –)
September 5 —– (7) [30.43%] —– (– Spirit – AFCA – CCA – SDFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA –)
Emilia Pérez —– (5) [21.74%] —– (– ACE – BAFTA – Sat – AWFJ – HFCS –)
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga —– (4) [17.39%] —– (– ACE – AWFJ – CFC – SFC –)
Nosferatu —– (4) [17.39%] —– (– CIC – COFC – HFCS – IFJA –)
Saturday Night —– (3) [13.04%] —– (– GWNY – HCA – SLFCA –)
Wicked —– (3) [13.04%] —– (– ACE – HCA – WAFCA –)
The Apprentice —– (1) [4.35%] —– (– Spirit –)
Blink Twice —– (1) [4.35%] —– (– SDFC –)
Civil War —– (1) [4.35%] —– (– ACE –)
Dìdi —– (1) [4.35%] —– (– Spirit –)
Gladiator II —– (1) [4.35%] —– (– Sat –)
Jazzy —– (1) [4.35%] —– (– Spirit –)
Kneecap —– (1) [4.35%] —– (– BAFTA –)
Nightbitch —– (1) [4.35%] —– (– Spirit –)
A Real Pain —– (1) [4.35%] —– (– ACE –)
Rebel Ridge —– (1) [4.35%] —– (– IFJA –)
Twisters —– (1) [4.35%] —– (– IFJA –)

Locks & Near Locks: I wouldn’t classify any of these titles as locks for a nomination. They all have drawbacks. Either they are too long or they are too subtle.

Goods: The former quality hurts Dune: Part Two while the latter inhibits Anora. But they both have ACE (American Cinema Editors) and BAFTA nominations, so they are probably in.

Borderline/Predicted: Challengers is a special case. It’s a fancy piece with lots of editing and sports need good editing to make a success of it. It was nominated by ACE but not BAFTA so its chances are weak though perhaps not as week as Emilia Pérez or Conclave. The former has a solid chance because of its BAFTA nomination and ACE supports that. It just feels like a non-traditional nomination, which is fitting given the subject matter. Conclave on the other hand, while nominated at BAFTA and ACE, isn’t terribly flashy, though it makes for a riveting watching experience. That’s why they are on my final five list.

Borderline/Not Predicted: Every Best Picture nominee or potential nominee is a borderline candidate for this award. It’s one of the categories that best aligns with the Best Picture category so you could make a claim for any of them at this point. The Brutalist missed at ACE and BAFTA but is (or maybe was) a Best Picture frontrunner. That could bolster its profile but the BAFTA miss is telling. Kneecap is the only BAFTA nominee I doubt would make it through. Civil War, The Substance, September 5, A Complete Unknown, and Wicked could all make the case for an Oscar nomination. The Substance, Wicked, and Civil War are the only ones with ACE nominations as well, though they have not fared well with most other precursor orgs.

In Summary: Ultimately, you can sniff this category out by what films are dominating the nominations up to this point. Those films are likely to make an appearance though an occasional shock might appear and this year, it’s anyone’s guess which title or titles that might be.

Best Cinematography

My Predictions:

Dune: Part Two – Greig Fraser (c-4/11, n-4/11, o-1/20) — Good —
The Brutalist – Lol Crawley (c-9/17, n-1/20) — Borderline —
Nosferatu – Jarin Blaschke (c-12/15, n-1/20) — Borderline —
Conclave – Stéphane Fontaine (c-4/11, n-10/20) — Borderline —
A Complete Unknown – Phedon Papamichael (c-4/11, n-1/20) — Borderline —
Wicked – Alice Brooks (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Maria – Edward Lachman (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Nickel Boys – Jomo Fray (c-4/11) — Borderline —
The Substance – Benjamin Kra?un (c-12/15) — Borderline —
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga – Simon Duggan (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Challengers – Sayombhu Mukdeeprom (c-12/15) — Doubtful —
Blitz – Yorick Le Saux (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Gladiator II – John Mathieson (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Hard Truths – Dick Pope (c-4/11) — Doubtful —

Precursors:

Dune: Part Two —– (32) [96.97%] —– (– ASC – BAFTA – Sat – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – KCFCC – LVFCC – NCFC – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
The Brutalist —– (31) [93.94%] —– (– ASC – BAFTA – Sat – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – KCFCC – LVFCC – NCFC – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
Nosferatu —– (30) [90.91%] —– (– ASC – BAFTA – Sat – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – KCFCC – LVFCC – NCFC – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
Nickel Boys —– (29) [87.88%] —– (– NAACP – Sat – Spirit – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – IFJA – KCFCC – LVFCC – NCFC – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
Conclave —– (17) [51.52%] —– (– ASC – BAFTA – AWFJ – OAFFC – CCA – DFC – FFC – HFC – HFCS – LVFCC – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – SDFC – SFFC – UFCA – WAFCA –)
Challengers —– (7) [21.21%] —– (– CFC – FFC – GWNY – HCA – HFCS – IFJA – NCFC –)
Wicked —– (7) [21.21%] —– (– ASC – AWFJ – CCA – HCA – KCFCC – PCC – SDFC –)
Civil War —– (3) [9.09%] —– (– CIC – IFJA – KCFCC –)
Gladiator II —– (3) [9.09%] —– (– Sat – KCFCC – NTFC –)
Maria —– (3) [9.09%] —– (– ASC – Sat – SLFCA –)
The Substance —– (3) [9.09%] —– (– AFCA – COFC – IFJA –)
Inside the Yellow Cocoon Shell —– (2) [6.06%] —– (– Spirit – GFCA –)
The Book of Clarence —– (1) [3.03%] —– (– NAACP –)
La Cocina —– (1) [3.03%] —– (– Spirit –)
A Complete Unknown —– (1) [3.03%] —– (– ASC –)
Emilia Pérez —– (1) [3.03%] —– (– BAFTA –)
Exhibiting Forgiveness —– (1) [3.03%] —– (– NAACP –)
The Fire Inside —– (1) [3.03%] —– (– Spirit –)
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga —– (1) [3.03%] —– (– SFC –)
I Saw the TV Glow —– (1) [3.03%] —– (– IFJA –)
Janet Planet —– (1) [3.03%] —– (– Spirit –)
Longlegs —– (1) [3.03%] —– (– NAACP –)
Queer —– (1) [3.03%] —– (– IFJA –)
She Taught Love —– (1) [3.03%] —– (– NAACP –)
Sing Sing —– (1) [3.03%] —– (– SDFC –)
Twisters —– (1) [3.03%] —– (– IFJA –)

Locks & Near Locks: As much as I would like to say there are some locks in this category, I’m not so sure anymore. When Nickel Boys, a revolutionary film in terms of its photography was ignored by both ASC (American Society of Cinematographers) and BAFTA, nothing is safe.

Goods: Still, Dune: Part Two has to feel good about its chances. The film is visually striking and does some interesting (though nonsensical) things. It’s probably the safest of the five.

Borderline/Predicted: BAFTA largely determined the remaining four slots with The Brutalist, Nosferatu, and Conclave benefiting from the ASC/BAFTA love. A Complete Unknown is an edge case. It follows the pattern of recent oddball nominations at ASC that turned over to Oscar and the Oscar list has been fairly close to the ASC list for a few years now, so you can’t count it out for a nomination.

Borderline/Not Predicted: The other two ASC nominees, that didn’t get in at BAFTA, are probably the next most likely: Wicked, which had some smashing visuals and camera tricks in use, and Maria, which is by legendary cinematographer Edward Lachman who could easily pull off a nod. Nickel Boys could still make an appearance but I won’t hold my breath. The Substance and Furiosa could both surprise but I am not certain they will.

In Summary: The BAFTA list could well be the Oscar list or the late surge for A Complete Unknown could overcome that. Any arrangement wouldn’t be surprising.

Best Directing

My Predictions:

The Brutalist – Brady Corbet (c-9/17, n-9/17, o-12/15) — Near Lock —
Anora – Sean Baker (c-7/21, n-7/21) — Near Lock —
Conclave – Edward Berger (c-4/11, n-4/11) — Borderline —
Emilia Pérez – Jacques Audiard (c-12/15, n-12/15) — Borderline —
The Substance – Coralie Fargeat (c-12/15, n-12/15) — Borderline —
A Complete Unknown – James Mangold (c-4/11) — Borderline —
All We Imagine as Light – Payal Kapadia (c-12/15) — Borderline —
Dune: Part Two – Denis Villeneuve (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Nickel Boys – RaMell Ross (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Wicked – Jon M. Chu (c-4/11) — Borderline —
September 5 – Tim Fehlbaum (c-10/17) — Borderline —
A Real Pain – Jesse Eisenberg (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Hard Truths – Mike Leigh (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Juror #2 – Clint Eastwood (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
The Piano Lesson – Malcolm Washington (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Maria – Pablo Larraín (c-4/11) — Doubtful —

Precursors:

Brady Corbet – The Brutalist —– (35) [87.50%] —– (– DGA – BAFTA – GG – Sat – Spirit – AWFJ – GALECA – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
Sean Baker – Anora —– (30) [75.00%] —– (– DGA – BAFTA – Gotham – GG – Sat – Spirit – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – KCFCC – LFCC – MMCG – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SFC – SFFC – UFCA – WAFCA –)
Coralie Fargeat – The Substance —– (30) [75.00%] —– (– BAFTA – GG – AWFJ – GALECA – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – KCFCC – LFCC – MMCG – NCFC – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – UKFCA –)
RaMell Ross – Nickel Boys —– (24) [60.00%] —– (– Gotham – NAACP – Sat – GALECA – OAFFC – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFWFCA – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – IFJA – KCFCC – LFCC – LVFCC – NCFC – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SFFC – SLFCA –)
Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Part Two —– (23) [57.50%] —– (– BAFTA – Sat – AFCA – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – GFCA – HCA – HFC – KCFCC – LFCC – LVFCC – NCFC – NTFC – OFCS – SDFC – SFC – SLFCA – UFCA – UKFCA – WAFCA –)
Edward Berger – Conclave —– (16) [40.00%] —– (– DGA – BAFTA – GG – Sat – AARP – AWFJ – OAFFC – CCA – HFC – HFCS – LVFCC – NYFCO – SDFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez —– (9) [22.50%] —– (– DGA – BAFTA – GG – AARP – AWFJ – CCA – HCA – HFCS – NYFCO –)
Jon M. Chu – Wicked —– (8) [20.00%] —– (– CCA – HCA – HFC – KCFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NYFCO – WAFCA –)
Luca Guadagnino – Challengers —– (7) [17.50%] —– (– GALECA – DFC – FFC – GWNY – IFJA – NCFC – UKFCA –)
Robert Eggers – Nosferatu —– (5) [12.50%] —– (– COFC – HFCS – IFJA – MMCG – PCC –)
Janes Schoenbrun – I Saw the TV Glow —– (5) [12.50%] —– (– Gotham – Spirit – GALECA – CFC – IFJA –)
Payal Kapadia – All We Imagine as Light —– (4) [10.00%] —– (– Gotham – GG – AWFJ – FFC –)
Bertrand Bonello – The Beast —– (2) [5.00%] —– (– FFC – SFC –)
Greg Kwedar – Sing Sing —– (2) [5.00%] —– (– Sat – SDFC –)
James Mangold – A Complete Unknown —– (2) [5.00%] —– (– DGA – AARP –)
Ali Abbasi – The Apprentice —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– Spirit –)
Pedro Almodóvar – The Room Next Door —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– AARP –)
Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– IFJA –)
Tim Fehlbaum – September 5 —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– UFCA –)
Alex Garland – Civil War —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– IFJA –)
Rose Glass – Love Lies Bleeding —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– AFCA –)
Reinaldo Marcus Green – Bob Marley: One Love —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– NAACP –)
Guan Hu – Black Dog —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– Gotham –)
Mike Leigh – Hard Truths —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– SFFC –)
Steve McQueen – Blitz —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– NAACP –)
Mohammad Rasoulof – The Seed of the Sacred Fig —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– SLFCA –)
Alice Rohrwacher – La Chimera —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– UKFCA –)
Alonso Ruizpalacios – La Cocina —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– Spirit –)
Jeymes Samuel – The Book of Clarence —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– NAACP –)
Jeremy Saulnier – Rebel Ridge —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– IFJA –)
Aaron Schimberg – A Different Man —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– IFJA –)
Ridley Scott – Gladiator II —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– AARP –)
Malcolm Washington – The Piano Lesson —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– NAACP –)

Locks & Near Locks: This is one of the few categories where you take the five nominees at DGA and work backwards. That’s why Brady Corbet and Sean Baker are at the top of the list. The rest have liabilities that could play into their defeat.

Goods: None.

Borderline/Predicted: Edward Berger and Jacques Audiard are the two I’m most thinking of when I say that. Both were nominated at BAFTA and both fit the foreign director trend that has been feeding this category in recent years. With both DGA and BAFTA they are probably set but could be knocked out by a different foreign director.

Borderline/Not Predicted: That director could be Coralie Fargeat. She’s my fifth-slotter replacing DGA nominee James Mangold. Mangold was not nominated at BAFTA and that could mean his downfall. Denis Villeneuve made it through at BAFTA and that could help his Oscar chances but since he didn’t get nominated for the first film (and got a DGA nomination that year) but didn’t get a DGA nod this year suggests he will probably miss out a second time unless there’s sentiment to reward him for both films. Payal Kapadia has an interesting profile and would fit the 1990s/2000s odd-man-out director profile. It’s a well regarded film with a nomination for her from the Golden Globes. It’s possible. It’s also possible RaMell Ross could be the only Black director on the list of white men; however, having two prominent women directors ignored by the Academy might cause more of an uproar since Ross hasn’t really had the profile of a nominee so far this year. If Wicked is more popular than we expect, Jon M. Chu could be pulled in for a nomination but that would be a major upset if it happened.

In Summary: I can’t imagine them making an all-male slate and Coralie Fargeat has that BAFTA nomination that Kapadia does not. But don’t count out a surprise for that fifth slot. I don’t think it will be Mangold but he is the kind of journeyman director that one day makes the cut and this might be his last chance.

Best International Feature

My Predictions:

Emilia Pérez – France (c-11/21, n-12/17, o-12/17) — Lock —
The Seed of the Sacred Fig – Germany (c-11/21, n-12/17) — Good —
I’m Still Here – Brazil (c-11/21, n-1/20) — Borderline —
The Girl with the Needle – Denmark (c-11/21, n-12/17) — Borderline —
Kneecap – Ireland (c-11/21, n-1/20) — Borderline —
Flow – Latvia (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Vermiglio – Italy (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Dahomey – Senegal (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Armand – Norway (c-11/21) — Borderline —
From Ground Zero – Palestine (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Santosh – United Kingdom (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Waves – Czech Republic (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Universal Language – Canada (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Touch – Iceland (c-11/21) — Doubtful —

Precursors:

All We Imagine as Light —– (32) [86.49%] —– (– BAFTA – Gotham – GG – Spirit – AWFJ – GALECA – OAFFC – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – KCFCC – LFCC – NBR – NCFC – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA –)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig —– (32) [86.49%] —– (– BAFTA – GG – NAACP – Sat – AWFJ – GALECA – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FFC – GFCA – HCA – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LVFCC – NBR – NCFC – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – WAFCA –)
Emilia Pérez —– (28) [75.68%] —– (– BAFTA – GG – NAACP – AWFJ – GALECA – AFCA – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FFC – HCA – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – KCFCC – LFCC – LVFCC – NCFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
I’m Still Here —– (22) [59.46%] —– (– BAFTA – GG – Sat – GALECA – AFCA – CCA – DFWFCA – FFC – HCA – HFC – HFCS – KCFCC – LFCC – LVFCC – NBR – NCFC – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – SFFC – UFCA – WAFCA –)
Flow —– (17) [45.95%] —– (– Spirit – AWFJ – GALECA – OAFFC – AFCA – CIC – CCA – DFC – GFCA – HCA – KCFCC – LVFCC – NTFC – OFCS – SFC – UFCA – WAFCA –)
Kneecap —– (16) [43.24%] —– (– BAFTA – AFCA – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – KCFCC – LFCC – LVFCC – NTFC – SFFC –)
Evil Does Not Exist —– (7) [18.92%] —– (– CFC – COFC – GWNY – IFJA – NCFC – PCC – SFC –)
The Girl with the Needle —– (6) [16.22%] —– (– GG – Sat – OAFFC – NBR – PCC – SDFC –)
Red Rooms —– (5) [13.51%] —– (– CFC – GFCA – GWNY – SFC – UFCA –)
Dahomey —– (4) [10.81%] —– (– AWFJ – OAFFC – SLFCA – WAFCA –)
Do Not Expect Too Much from the End of the World —– (3) [8.11%] —– (– FFC – NYFCO – SLFCA –)
Vermiglio —– (3) [8.11%] —– (– Gotham – GG – SDFC –)
La Chimera —– (2) [5.41%] —– (– AWFJ – LFCC –)
Green Border —– (2) [5.41%] —– (– Gotham – Spirit –)
Hard Truths —– (2) [5.41%] —– (– Gotham – Spirit –)
No Other Land —– (2) [5.41%] —– (– GWNY – SDFC –)
Aattam —– (1) [2.70%] —– (– IFJA –)
The Beast —– (1) [2.70%] —– (– SFC –)
Black Dog —– (1) [2.70%] —– (– Spirit –)
Los Firikis —– (1) [2.70%] —– (– IFJA –)
Inside the Yellow Cocoon Shell —– (1) [2.70%] —– (– Gotham –)
Look Back —– (1) [2.70%] —– (– IFJA –)
El Lugar de la Otra —– (1) [2.70%] —– (– NAACP –)
Mars Express —– (1) [2.70%] —– (– IFJA –)
Memoir of a Snail —– (1) [2.70%] —– (– NAACP –)
Queens —– (1) [2.70%] —– (– Sat –)
Santosh —– (1) [2.70%] —– (– NBR –)
The Three Musketeers: Milady —– (1) [2.70%] —– (– HFCS –)
Twilight of the Warriors: Walled In —– (1) [2.70%] —– (– KCFCC –)
Universal Language —– (1) [2.70%] —– (– NBR –)
The Wait —– (1) [2.70%] —– (– Sat –)
The Wall Street Boy —– (1) [2.70%] —– (– NAACP –)
Waves —– (1) [2.70%] —– (– Sat –)

General Commentary: Since this category is a bit foreign to me (pun intended), I don’t feel comfortable weighing in with much detail on this category. Emilia Pérez, if it’s the sole Best Picture nominee on the list, will very likely win, which means it has a certain spot. The Seed of the Sacred Fig also has a good chance at a nomination since it’s one of the most recognized international features this year. It has the BAFTA nod, so that’s a point in its favor. I’m Still Here also has a BAFTA nomination and that may well bolster its chances. That and Fernanda Torres’ potential of a nomination in Best Actress. The fourth and fifth slots could go to anything. Kneecap and All We Imagine as Light were the other BAFTA nominees and the latter isn’t eligible. I’d say Kneecap has a chance but so too do a lot of films, including Flow and Vermiglio.

Best Documentary Feature

My Predictions:

Sugarcane (c-11/21, n-12/17, o-12/17) — Good —
Daughters (c-11/21, n-1/20) — Good —
Will & Harper (c-11/21, n-1/20) — Borderline —
Dahomey (c-11/21, n-12/17) — Borderline —
The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (c-11/21, n-12/17) — Borderline —
No Other Land (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Black Box Diaries (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Porcelain War (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Frida (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (c-11/21) — Borderline —
The Bibi Files (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Eno (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Queendom (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Union (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Hollywoodgate (c-11/21) — Doubtful —

Precursors:

Will & Harper —– (31) [77.50%] —– (– BAFTA – AARP – AWFJ – GALECA – OAFFC – AFCA – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FFC – GFCA – HCA – HFC – HFCS – KCFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NBR – NCFC – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story —– (30) [75.00%] —– (– PGA – BAFTA – Sat – AARP – AFCA – CIC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFCS – IFJA – KCFCC – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NBR – NCFC – NTFC – NYFCO – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
Daughters —– (25) [62.50%] —– (– DGA – BAFTA – NAACP – AWFJ – GALECA – OAFFC – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFWFCA – FFC – GWNY – HCA – HFC – IFJA – LVFCC – MMCG – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFFC – WAFCA –)
Sugarcane —– (25) [62.50%] —– (– DGA – Gotham – Sat – AWFJ – GALECA – OAFFC – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – GFCA – HFC – HFCS – KCFCC – NBR – NCFC – NTFC – OFCS – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA –)
No Other Land —– (23) [57.50%] —– (– BAFTA – Gotham – Sat – Spirit – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – COFC – DFC – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – IFJA – LFCC – MMCG – NCFC – NYFCO – PCC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – WAFCA –)
Dahomey —– (16) [40.00%] —– (– Gotham – Sat – AWFJ – GALECA – AFCA – CFC – DFWFCA – KCFCC – LFCC – NBR – NCFC – NYFCO – OFCS – SFC – SLFCA – WAFCA –)
The Remarkable Life of Ibelin —– (12) [30.00%] —– (– GALECA – AFCA – COFC – CCA – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – IFJA – LVFCC – NTFC – UFCA –)
Music by John Williams —– (8) [20.00%] —– (– CIC – CCA – HCA – LVFCC – MMCG – SDFC – SLFCA – WAFCA –)
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat —– (7) [17.50%] —– (– DGA – Gotham – Spirit – CFC – FFC – GWNY – OFCS –)
Black Box Diaries —– (6) [15.00%] —– (– BAFTA – AWFJ – OAFFC – HCA – NBR – NYFCO –)
Piece by Piece —– (3) [7.50%] —– (– AARP – CCA – MMCG –)
Porcelain War —– (3) [7.50%] —– (– DGA – PGA – Sat –)
Gaucho Gaucho —– (2) [5.00%] —– (– PGA – Spirit –)
The Greatest Night in Pop —– (2) [5.00%] —– (– NAACP – CCA –)
I Am: Celine Dion —– (2) [5.00%] —– (– Sat – AARP –)
Look Into My Eyes —– (2) [5.00%] —– (– KCFCC – NBR –)
Luther: Never Too Much —– (2) [5.00%] —– (– NAACP – AARP –)
Union —– (2) [5.00%] —– (– Gotham – HFC –)
The Beach Boys —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– HFCS –)
Billy & Molly: An Otter Love Story —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– CCA –)
The Bloody Hundredth —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– Sat –)
Brats —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– HFCS –)
¡ Casa Bonita Mi Amor! —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– DFC –)
Copa ’71 —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– PCC –)
Elizabeth Taylor: The Lost Tapes —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– Sat –)
Ennio —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– IFJA –)
Frida —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– NAACP –)
Girls State —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– IFJA –)
Grand Theft Hamlet —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– LFCC –)
Hollywoodgate —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– DGA –)
Hummingbirds —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– Spirit –)
Intercepted —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– Gotham –)
Jim Henson Idea Man —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– CCA –)
King of Kings: Chasing Edward Jones —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– NAACP –)
The Last of the Sea Women —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– AWFJ –)
Made in England: The Films of Powell and Pressburger —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– LFCC –)
Mediha —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– PGA –)
Mountain Queen: The Summits of Lhakpa Sherpa —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– PGA –)
Patrice: The Movie —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– Spirit –)
Seeking Mavis Beacon —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– KCFCC –)
The Sixth —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– IFJA –)
Skylwalkers: A Love Story —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– UFCA –)
The Speedway Murders —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– IFJA –)
We Will Dance Again —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– PGA –)

General Commentary: While I don’t feel entirely comfortable going into immense detail in this category, I do have some things to say. First is that the PGA was so off base this year that they nominated only one film on the shortlist, Porcelain War. It also got a DGA nod, which isn’t something to sniff at. That said, Daughters and Sugarcane did too and I think they are far more likely nominees due to subject matter. BAFTA also went for Will & Harper, which could be a serious threat for the win if something like No Other Land isn’t nominated. That film was nominated at BAFTA but seems to have missed other prominent groups too. It could still get nominated as could Dahomey and cancer pic The Remarkable Life of Ibelin. But that’s why this category is so tough to predict. There are far too many possibilities and Oscar voters tend to throw curveballs too, so who knows where this one will land.

Best Actress

My Predictions:

Demi Moore – The Substance (c-10/20, n-12/15, o-1/20) — Near Lock —
Cynthia Erivo – Wicked (c-4/11, n-4/11) — Good —
Mikey Madison – Anora (c-7/21, n-9/17) — Good —
Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez (c-10/20, n-12/15) — Borderline —
Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths (c-4/11, n-12/15) — Borderline —
Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here (c-1/20) — Borderline —
Pamela Anderson – The Last Showgirl (c-12/15) — Borderline —
Angelina Jolie – Maria (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Nicole Kidman – Babygirl (c-9/17) — Borderline —
Saoirse Ronan – The Outrun (c-9/17) — Doubtful —
Tilda Swinton – The Room Next Door (c-9/17) — Doubtful —
Kate Winslet – Lee (c-4/11) — Doubtful —

Precursors:

Demi Moore – The Substance —– (39) [97.50%] —– (– SAG – BAFTA – Gotham – GG – Sat – Spirit – AARP – AWFJ – GALECA – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – KCFCC – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – UKFCA – WAFCA –)
Mikey Madison – Anora —– (38) [95.00%] —– (– SAG – BAFTA – Gotham – GG – Sat – Spirit – AWFJ – GALECA – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – HFCS – KCFCC – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – UKFCA – WAFCA –)
Cynthia Erivo – Wicked —– (32) [80.00%] —– (– SAG – BAFTA – GG – NAACP – Sat – AWFJ – GALECA – OAFFC – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – GFCA – HCA – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – KCFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SLFCA – UFCA – UKFCA – WAFCA –)
Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths —– (27) [67.50%] —– (– BAFTA – Gotham – AARP – AWFJ – GALECA – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – LFCC – NCFC – NYFCO – OFCS – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez —– (15) [37.50%] —– (– SAG – BAFTA – GG – Sat – AWFJ – GALECA – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – HCA – KCFCC – LVFCC – NYFCO – SFFC – WAFCA –)
Nicole Kidman – Babygirl —– (12) [30.00%] —– (– Gotham – GG – Sat – AARP – GALECA – AFCA – DFWFCA – FFC – LFCC – MMCG – NYFCO – PCC –)
Angelina Jolie – Maria —– (10) [25.00%] —– (– GG – Sat – CIC – CCA – DFWFCA – HCA – HFC – LVFCC – NYFCO – SFFC –)
Pamela Anderson – The Last Showgirl —– (8) [20.00%] —– (– SAG – Gotham – GG – AARP – AFCA – GWNY – NTFC – SLFCA –)
Amy Adams – Nightbitch —– (6) [15.00%] —– (– GG – Spirit – CIC – HFCS – MMCG – SDFC –)
Saoirse Ronan – The Outrun —– (6) [15.00%] —– (– BAFTA – Gotham – Sat – LFCC – SLFCA – UKFCA –)
Lily-Rose Depp – Nosferatu —– (5) [12.50%] —– (– Sat – CIC – COFC – GFCA – PCC –)
June Squibb – Thelma —– (5) [12.50%] —– (– Sat – Spirit – AARP – AWFJ – KCFCC –)
Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here —– (4) [10.00%] —– (– GG – Sat – GWNY – OFCS –)
Léa Seydoux – The Beast —– (3) [7.50%] —– (– CFC – FFC – SFC –)
Zendaya – Challengers —– (3) [7.50%] —– (– GG – OAFFC – NCFC –)
Tilda Swinton – The Room Next Door —– (2) [5.00%] —– (– GG – Sat –)
Ryan Destiny – The Fire Inside —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– Spirit –)
Kirsten Dunst – Civil War —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– IFJA –)
Carol Kane – Between the Temples —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– FFC –)
Regina King – Shirley —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– NAACP –)
Lady Gaga – Joker: Folie à Deux —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– HFCS –)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Tuesday —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– UFCA –)
Lashana Lynch – Bob Marley: One Love —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– NAACP –)
Lupita Nyong’o – A Quiet Place: Day One —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– NAACP –)
Winona Ryder – Thelma —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– Sat –)
Hunter Schafer – Cuckoo —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– Spirit –)
Naomi Scott – Smile 2 —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– HCA –)
Anya Taylor-Joy – Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– NTFC –)
Kerry Washington – The Six Triple Eight —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– NAACP –)
Kate Winslet – Lee —– (1) [2.50%] —– (– GG –)

Locks & Near Locks: Best Actress has the biggest range of possible nominees of most non-shortlisted categories. Sure, there are candidates like Demi Moore that seem assured of nominations but not a lot of certainty in this category.

Goods: Cynthia Erivo and Mikey Madison are the closest to being locks without being locks. Erivo’s film might not be an Oscar juggernaut and Madison is too new. That said, I would be surpised if either missed out at this point.

Borderline/Predicted: Karlia Sofía Gascón and Marianne Jean-Baptiste on the other hand face incredible headwinds. Jean-Baptiste is one of the most honored contenders this year but her Oscar traction has been rough. SAG skipped her but BAFTA picked her back up again. She’s the kind of critics darling that somehow misses a nod despite being widely acclaimed. On the other hand, Sofía Gascón is a contender I can’t quite get sold on. It’s not because she wasn’t well recognized by critics or BAFTA or SAG or the Globes. She was. The problem is that every other trans contender that’s emerged in the last couple of years have had some of those benefits has still not managed to break through. I sure hope she does but I wouldn’t be surprised if she were ignored.

Borderline/Not Predicted: Who could push out one of these, most likely Jean-Baptiste if no one else? Fernanda Torres’ surprise win and speech at the Golden Globes put her on the map and that could be the right kind of last-minute recognition that propels her into the race. That Globe nomination/win is her only major one, though. She didn’t place at SAG or BAFTA, so I’m not sure on her chances. Pamela Anderson rode a wave of last-minute support to a SAG nomination. She’s got the profile of an Andrea Riseborough and that could be tragic for her to replace a Black woman again so soon after the furor over the Riseborough nomination. Angelina Jolie could surprise as could Nicole Kidman and those are probably the only ones who could. When laid out like this, it doesn’t seem vast but considering all nine of these women have some claim to being a major threat for a nomination, you have to think it’s a wide set of contenders.

In Summary: Ultimately, I think the early wins for Jean-Baptiste put her film in their consciousness and in spite of the SAG miss, I can still see her making the final cut but it will be a tough road for her and I would be happy if she did finally make it back to the Oscars almost thirty years after her first nomination.

Best Picture

My Predictions:

The Brutalist – A24 (c-9/17, n-9/17, o-12/15) — Lock —
Anora – Neon (c-7/21, n-7/21) — Lock —
Conclave – Focus Features (c-4/11, n-4/11) — Lock —
Dune: Part Two – Warner Bros. (c-4/11, n-4/11) — Lock —
A Complete Unknown – Searchlight (c-4/11, n-12/15) — Near Lock —
Emilia Pérez – Netflix (c-4/11, n-12/15) — Near Lock —
The Substance – MUBI (c-12/15, n-12/15) — Borderline —
Wicked – Universal (c-4/11, n-4/11) — Borderline —
Sing Sing – A24 (c-12/15, n-12/15) — Borderline —
A Real Pain – Searchlight (c-4/11, n-1/20) — Borderline —
Nickel Boys – MGM (c-4/11) — Borderline —
September 5 – Paramount (c-10/17) — Borderline —
Challengers – MGM (c-12/15) — Borderline —
The Piano Lesson – Netflix (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Juror #2 – Warner Bros. (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Maria – Netflix (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Hard Truths – Bleecker Street (c-4/11) — Doubtful —

Precursors:

Anora —– (41) [87.23%] —– (– DGA – PGA – SAG – AFI – BAFTA – Gotham – GG – Sat – Spirit – AWFJ – GALECA – OAFFC – AFCA – BOFCA – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – KCFCC – LFCC – MMCG – NBR – NCFC – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SEFCA – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UKFCA – WAFCA –)
The Brutalist —– (36) [76.60%] —– (– DGA – PGA – AFI – BAFTA – GG – Sat – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – BOFCA – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFWFCA – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SEFCA – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
Conclave —– (34) [72.34%] —– (– DGA – PGA – SAG – AFI – BAFTA – GG – Sat – AARP – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – COFC – CCA – DFWFCA – FFC – GFCA – HCA – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – KCFCC – LFCC – LVFCC – NBR – NCFC – NTFC – NYFCO – OFCS – SDFC – SEFCA – SFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
The Substance —– (31) [65.96%] —– (– PGA – GG – Sat – Spirit – AWFJ – GALECA – OAFFC – AFCA – BOFCA – CFC – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – GFCA – HCA – HFC – IFJA – KCFCC – LFCC – MMCG – NCFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SEFCA – SFC – UFCA – UKFCA –)
Dune: Part Two —– (28) [59.57%] —– (– PGA – AFI – GG – Sat – AFCA – BOFCA – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – IFJA – KCFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – NTFC – OFCS – SDFC – SEFCA – SFC – SLFCA – UFCA – UKFCA –)
Nickel Boys —– (28) [59.57%] —– (– AFI – Gotham – GG – Sat – Spirit – AAFC – AWFJ – GALECA – OAFFC – AFCA – BOFCA – CFC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – IFJA – KCFCC – LFCC – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SEFCA – SFFC – SLFCA –)
Wicked —– (26) [55.32%] —– (– PGA – SAG – AFI – GG – NAACP – Sat – AAFC – AWFJ – AFCA – BOFCA – CIC – CCA – DFWFCA – GFCA – HCA – HFC – IFJA – KCFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NBR – NYFCO – OFCS – SEFCA – SLFCA – WAFCA –)
Sing Sing —– (25) [53.19%] —– (– AFI – Sat – Spirit – AAFC – AWFJ – AFCA – CIC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – GFCA – HCA – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – KCFCC – NBR – NTFC – PCC – SEFCA – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – WAFCA –)
A Complete Unknown —– (16) [34.04%] —– (– DGA – PGA – SAG – AFI – BAFTA – GG – AARP – CIC – CCA – DFWFCA – HFC – LVFCC – NBR – NYFCO – SEFCA – SLFCA –)
Challengers —– (15) [31.91%] —– (– Gotham – GG – GALECA – CIC – COFC – GFCA – GWNY – HCA – IFJA – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – SEFCA – SFC – UKFCA –)
Emilia Pérez —– (13) [27.66%] —– (– DGA – PGA – SAG – AFI – BAFTA – GG – AAFC – AARP – AWFJ – CCA – HCA – LFCC – NYFCO –)
A Real Pain —– (11) [23.40%] —– (– PGA – AFI – GG – Sat – DFWFCA – GWNY – HCA – HFC – IFJA – KCFCC – NBR –)
I Saw the TV Glow —– (10) [21.28%] —– (– GALECA – BOFCA – CFC – CIC – GWNY – IFJA – KCFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SFC –)
Nosferatu —– (9) [19.15%] —– (– AFCA – BOFCA – CIC – COFC – GWNY – HFCS – LFCC – NCFC – OFCS –)
Civil War —– (5) [10.64%] —– (– COFC – HFCS – IFJA – KCFCC – NCFC –)
September 5 —– (5) [10.64%] —– (– PGA – GG – AARP – NYFCO – SLFCA –)
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga —– (4) [8.51%] —– (– CFC – GWNY – NBR – SFC –)
A Different Man —– (3) [6.38%] —– (– Gotham – IFJA – NBR –)
Gladiator II —– (3) [6.38%] —– (– AAFC – AARP – NBR –)
Hard Truths —– (3) [6.38%] —– (– BOFCA – NBR – SFFC –)
Love Lies Bleeding —– (3) [6.38%] —– (– AFCA – COFC – NBR –)
Babygirl —– (2) [4.26%] —– (– Gotham – NBR –)
The Beast —– (2) [4.26%] —– (– FFC – SFC –)
Flow —– (2) [4.26%] —– (– BOFCA – GFCA –)
Ghostlight —– (2) [4.26%] —– (– Sat – NBR –)
His Three Daughters —– (2) [4.26%] —– (– IFJA – NBR –)
The Piano Lesson —– (2) [4.26%] —– (– NAACP – AAFC –)
Thelma —– (2) [4.26%] —– (– Sat – NBR –)
The Wild Robot —– (2) [4.26%] —– (– UFCA – UKFCA –)
Albany Road —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– AAFC –)
All We Imagine as Light —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– LFCC –)
Bad Boys: Ride or Die —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– NAACP –)
Bird —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– NBR –)
Bob Marley: One Love —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– NAACP –)
Cabrini —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– Sat –)
La Chimera —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– LFCC –)
Dahomey —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– AAFC –)
Dìdi —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– NBR –)
Exhibiting Forgiveness —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– AAFC –)
The Fire Inside —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– AAFC –)
Good One —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– NBR –)
Hit Man —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– Sat –)
Hundreds of Beavers —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– FFC –)
In a Violent Nature —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– IFJA –)
Juror #2 —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– NBR –)
Kneecap —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– LFCC –)
LeRoy, Texas —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– Sat –)
Longlegs —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– IFJA –)
Mars Express —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– IFJA –)
My Old Ass —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– NBR –)
No Other Land —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– GWNY –)
The Order —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– Sat –)
The People’s Joker —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– IFJA –)
Queer —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– NBR –)
Rebel Ridge —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– IFJA –)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– SLFCA –)
The Six Triple Eight —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– NAACP –)
Tuesday —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– UFCA –)
Young Woman and the Sea —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– Sat –)

Locks & Near Locks: There are five films that feel locked or nearly locked at this point: The BAFTA five. The Brutalist, Anora, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, and A Complete Unknown seem certain at this point. Even Dune: Part Two looks pretty solid. That makes six. The remaining four slots are prone to last-minute tinkering by voters.

Goods: None.

Borderline/Predicted: The Substance and Wicked round out the eight films that I think are most likely to get nominated. Both films have elements that won’t please a lot of voters and might result in them being knocked off the list in favor of more “serious” subject matters even though their subjects are very serious. Those eight films all have PGA nominations and that’s what keeps me from pulling any of them. The same can’t be said for PGA nominees A Real Pain or September 5. I still think A Real Pain could make it with its topical storyline but I think Sing Sing might barely eke out a top spot in spite of its poor release history. There aren’t many Black-centric stories in contention and with Nickel Boys being largely ignored at BAFTA, Sing Sing just feels like the safer bet.

Borderline/Not Predicted: I won’t count out Nickel Boys, though. Its topic is salient, especially now, and it’s gotten a few more citations than Sing Sing, which didn’t even show up at the Golden Globes. That still doesn’t account for the BAFTA longlist snubs and that’s why I’m being bearish on its chances. September 5 was one of those films that we thought was going to be a much bigger contender than it ended up not being. It still got some recognition, especially from the PGA but it also feels like a film that didn’t get that attention at the right time and may be forgotten as a result. Challengers is one of the earliest contenders on the list and has remained surprisingly in contention since then. The Globe nomination wasn’t a huge benefit but one can never overlook it, especially for a film that’s sure to get some craft nominations. I also don’t want to entirely discount Nosferatu or I Saw the TV Glow, two films that have gotten surprisingly strong critic prize bumps going into the home stretch. While I can’t see the latter making it across the finish line, I could see the former coasting in with its myriad craft nominations bolstering it.

In Summary: Ultimately, you have to wonder what Oscar voters made it through and whether they will vote enough of these films at the top of their lists to make a difference. That’s why so many films are rated “Borderline” because it’s entirely possible that they can’t rank first on enough lists to make the final cut. We’ll just have to see how things go on Thursday.

And that’s everything for this year. I hope you enjoy. It’s been a crazy year, so let’s see how we do on the morrow.