When the Oscars were airing at the end of March or beginning of April, things felt more leisurely. While the Oscars got the early March berth this year, which would have helped, the fires near Los Angeles caused several postponements and everything got bunched up into the last few weeks, making it a whirlwind January/February.

With almost everything now behind us, let’s look at Sunday’s Oscars and see if we can make any final sense of what’s going on. This is one of the few years where there are limited “slam dunk” winners. Some races have certainly settled (Like the supporting categories) but many, including Best Picture, Directing, and the lead acting races, have gone from potential certainties to uncertain guesses.

The categories below are sorted in order from least competitive to most competitive. They are further broken up into categories based on whether or not they are guaranteed outcomes, certain results, likely winners, or toss-ups. Best Picture, whether competitive or not (though it fits into the toss-up category this year), is last. While these are currently my final predictions, I reserve the right to change my mind at the last minute. That said, doing that has often been my undoing, so it will likely stay the same.

GUARANTEES

There are three categories where I feel there is a guarantee of a specific outcome. Best Supporting Actor, Best Costume Design, and Best Makeup & Hairstyling. While they are guaranteed winners, please note that it’s always possible for an unexpected outcome to arise but, with these three categories, that seems highly unlikely.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Who Will Win: The Substance (84.62% of precursors). What does a guarantee look like? The Substance is said poster child. Having won all of the major trophies (Make-Up Artists & Hair Stylists Guild, BAFTA (British Academy), Critics Choice Association), it seems like a lock at this point. It boasts tons of prosthetic makeup and that’s the kind of heavy work the Academy loves to recognize.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Nosferatu (0% of precursors), A Different Man (7.69% of precursors), Wicked (15.38% of precursors). We always have to have room for doubt and three of the remaining nominees have various claims to potential wins. Nosferatu has extensive work, A Different Man has very obvious prosthetic work, and Wicked has a lot of more subtle work that might appeal to some voters. Wicked also has an MUAHS award. That said, none of these are as bold or inventive as Substance, so you can expect the guarantee to hold.
What I Would Like to See Happen: As much as I appreciate the work in The Substance, the subtlety of the makeup in Wicked required a good deal of effort itself. Those close-ups of Elphaba alone showcase why the makeup there is so great (managing to get freckles on such a rich green skin tone cannot have been easy). While I don’t have any issue with The Substance winning, I would be happy for a Wicked win as well.

Best Supporting Actor

Who Will Win: Kieran Culkin (61.67% of precursors). With more than half of precursors going for Culkin, you have to think of him as the most likely winner. While he doesn’t have the profile of a Casey Affleck kind of domination, he’s got the four major prizes (Screen Actors Guild, BAFTA, Golden Globe, Critics Choice) and that’s about as perfect a foundation as one could expect.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Guy Pearce (13.33% of precursors), Edward Norton (1.67% of precursors), Yura Borisov (8.33% of precursors). The three most likely usurpers have notably fewer awards between them with Guy Pearce narrowly outpacing Yura Borisov with late entry Edward Norton a distant fourth. Yet, none of them have one of those crucial prizes so I wouldn’t expect any of them to triumph.
What I Would Like to See Happen: Of the nominees I’ve seen, I would certainly support a Yura Borisov win. Against the more manic and excessive performance of co-star Mikey Madison, his quiet approach to his character is subtle and compelling. I would hate to see Pearce win. His performance is a blunt cudgel in a film that doesn’t need the moustache-twirling. I’ve liked Pearce for a very long time and would have loved to see him nominated for The Adventures of Priscilla, but this is not one of his best performances. It’s probably one of his worst.

Best Costume Design

Who Will Win: Wicked (78.95% of precursors). With the three-pronged victory of Costume Designers Guild, BAFTA, and Critics Choice, Wicked has dominated the costuming category all year. It has the showy, expressive costumes that often win this category and I see no reason to believe otherwise.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Nosferatu (15.79% of precursors), Conclave (5.26% of precursors). Of course, voters also have two other CDG winners they can get behind. Nosferatu is the more traditional period film that frequently won this prize and Conclave has some richly detailed frocks that voters might recognize, though its modern setting might dissuade most of them. I doubt there’s a shock but if it is, it’s one of these two.
What I Would Like to See Happen: There is no question in my mind that Wicked should win. Nothing else even comes close to its confectionary creations. The fantastical period costumes simply cannot be beat.

CERTAINS

These are outcomes that I expect will come to pass but certain factors make them impossible to guarantee victories. There is only one category here this year and it’s Best Supporting Actress.

Best Supporting Actress

Who Will Win: Zoe Saldaña (25.86% of precursors). While we place Kieran Culkin as a guaranteed frontrunner for securing the same four prizes as Saldaña (SAG, BAFTA, GG, CCA), the unfortunate fact is that her film has been trending downwards thanks to her co-star’s bigoted past Tweet history. That said, the Academy can and will ignore that kind of factor for a strong performance and they’ve shown with the late-breaking BAFTA and SAG wins that they can move past it. That she only has just over a quarter of the precursor prizes is the only factor that makes her fit into the certain category rather than the guarantee one.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Ariana Grande (22.41% of precursors), Isabella Rossellini (5.17% of precursors). That’s because Ariana Grande has almost as many prizes but failed to win any of the important ones. So while she could pull out a stunner, I seriously doubt it. Less likely is veteran actor Rossellini who could ride a wave of career accolades to a victory. Still, neither of these have all-important wins from the big-four televised awards, so they are unlikely to triumph.
What I Would Like to See Happen: Saldaña was certainly the best she’s ever been but hers is a lead performance and being shoehorned into support denies a victory to Ariana Grande who was a surprise revelation as Glenda the Good. Rossellini was also good. I would not begrudge Saldaña’s win but it’s still category fraud.

LIKELIES

Seven categories sit in this segment. These are wins that seem likely but which have a lot of mitigating factors that could upend the race. While changes with these are less likely to be considered surprises, they are not impenetrable.

Best Production Design

Who Will Win: Wicked (48% of precursors). Based on the precursor’s it has won (Art Directors Guild, Set Decorators Society, BAFTA, CCA) it would seem like a foregone conclusion that Wicked would win the Oscar. I’ll admit until BAFTA, I wasn’t very certain of this in spite of a 48% win rate. Yet, here it is. And while I still have it marked as “Likely” rather than “Certain,” it’s because there are a couple of titles that would seem to be potential upsetters.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Nosferatu (24% of precursors), The Brutalist (20% of precursors). Nosferatu also has an ADG award but The Brutalist has a lot of architectural elements that would fit into the Academy’s wheelhouse. That said, the only two films of similar bent, There Will Be Blood and Lincoln, were a bit farther removed from the present than the 1940/50s/60s era of Brutalist. It’s still conceivable that it will triumph in the end because neither Blood nor Lincoln won at BAFTA but at this juncture it would be a mild surprise.
What I Would Like to See Happen: I admire most of the work in this category but I’ll be the first to admit I would vote for Wicked. The library scene alone would have earned my vote but that immense amount of detail and creativity from Munchkinland to the Emerald City is so magical that you can’t help but hope for its victory.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Who Will Win: Conclave (46.34% of precursors). Here’s another category where precursor-wise, it would seem to be a foregone conclusion. Conclave has the BAFTA, GG, USC Scripter, and CCA awards in its pocket but lost out at the Writers Guild of America because it wasn’t even eligible. That slight aside, things look to be lining up for a Conclave victory.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Nickel Boys (29.27% of precursors), A Complete Unknown (0% of precursors). The film that won at WGA in Conclave‘s place would seem to be a strong contender. Nickel Boys, however, only received two nominations and was ignored at BAFTA in most categories so was clearly not widely beloved by either body. A Complete Unknown on the other hand did get a lot of attention from those groups and so if there’s an upset, it sadly won’t be the sublime Nickel Boys that comes out on top.
What I Would Like to See Happen: I am not opposed to a Conclave victory. It was well-written but the Nickel Boys adaptation was more compelling and required digging into a real-life story fictionalized for its literary source. There are a lot of things that could have gone wrong but didn’t. As such, Nickel Boys would be my first choice and not simply because the ending doesn’t come from out of nowhere like Conclave‘s does.

Best Original Song

Who Will Win: El Mal (25% of precursors). There aren’t a lot of organizations that give out Original Song awards. 25% of them went with “El Mal” and with two of those being big televised awards (GG and CCA), you have to think the song is still on a trajectory to win.
Who Could Potentially Upset: The Journey (10% of precursors), Never Too Late (0% of precursors). The challenge is in its competition. Diane Warren’s “The Journey” won prizes from the Hollywood Music in Movies awards and the Society of Composers & Lyricists. That suggests there’s plenty of industry support for the multi-nomination, never-won Warren. Then there’s legendary singer/songwriter Elton John who’s nominated for “Never Too Late” and while it might not be too late for him to win an Oscar, he probably doesn’t have a lot more chances to win another one. Both of these factors could play into a groundswell support for an upset but I’m dubious about that considering the “El Mal” profile.
What I Would Like to See Happen: “El Mal” wasn’t even the best song in Emilia Pérez and I’m mystified why it became the big hit it has been. Fellow nominee “Mi Camino” is easily the better song but never caught on. I’m not a fan of any of these nominees. None of them would make my year-end list of the best songs of the year. If I had to pick a winner, it would probably be “The Journey” since it is the most interesting composition of these five, though “Mi Camino” wouldn’t be a bad choice either.

Best Animated Short Film

Who Will Win: Wander to Wonder (66.67% of precursors). It is very rare for the Annie Awards and BAFTA to agree on a winner. BAFTA only nominates shorts released in the UK during the eligibility period while the Academy has more broad and atypical rules about festival awards for consideration. As such, having the potent one-two combination this year might help.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Yuck! (0% of precursors), In the Shadow of the Cypress (0% of precursors), Magic Candies (0% of precursors). If Academy voters aren’t impressed with the bleakness of Wander to Wonder, then the stylistic In the Shadow of the Cypress might be an alternative, as might the more youth-oriented shorts Yuck! and Magic Candies. I think the latter is too slight to win but stranger things have happened. The only thing I feel reasonably certain about is that Beautiful Men won’t be the winner.
What I Would Like to See Happen: Wander to Wonder is definitely the best of these and I wouldn’t mind a Yuck! victory but the rest had too many flaws for me to fully support.

Best Sound

Who Will Win: Dune: Part Two (64.29% of precursors). This year’s sound categories have been strangely confusing. More confusing than in some time. Dune: Part Two has the perfect profile of a winner. It even has Motion Picture Sound Editors and BAFTA awards for its sound work. Yet, the film has been struggling to find success this year in spite of its solid 64.29% precursor win rate.
Who Could Potentially Upset: A Complete Unknown (7.14% of precursors), Wicked (21.43% of precursors). That’s mostly because the Cinema Audio Society, which is a more solid precursor for this category than MPSE, went shockingly for A Complete Unknown. No one was expecting that and so it moved very quickly into a position of contending. Wicked, which also won at MPSE, would seem like a stronger candidate especially considering its own precursor haul. The Best Sound category has been drifting away from big blockbusters in recent years and so a Complete Unknown victory wouldn’t be surprising.
What I Would Like to See Happen: I’d be fine with Dune: Part Two winning but the sound mix on Wicked was more impressive.

Best Documentary Feature

Who Will Win: No Other Land (26.23% of precursors). No Other Land has the kind of story Oscar voters have typically loved. The problem is that it hasn’t won many precursors. That’s partially because Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story failed to make the shortlist for the Oscars but was the clearly dominant winner this year and partially because it never secured a U.S. distributor due to fears that its content would bring ruin to any studio that bought it. The latter is why No Other Land didn’t get nominated at some of the bigger awards (Producers Guild of America and Directors Guild of America. Their rules limit eligibility to films released within the U.S. during the eligibility window and the Academy’s rules are…weird.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Porcelain War (1.64% of precursors), Sugarcane (11.48% of precursors), Black Box Diaries (1.64% of precursors). The only film on this slate that did get both nominations was Porcelain War, which even managed to win at the DGA. That makes it a serious threat for a win. With the Ukraine War in the news more recently than the Israeli/Palestinian conflict, it’s entirely possible Porcelain wins. I wouldn’t entire discount the other three, any of them could conceivably win.
What I Would Like to See Happen: I have no horse in this race. I’m not the biggest fan of documentaries so I’ve not seen any of them.

Best Original Screenplay

Who Will Win: Anora (31.58% of precursors). In the original field, there are a lot of potential winners and the precursors were split between them. Anora leads the field of most precursors but only picked up one of the majors: WGA. Had it also claimed BAFTA, then the race would likely have been over but it isn’t. Since I’m predicting Anora in several later categories, it would make sense for the film to triumph here but spreading the love might just be the plan of enough Oscar voters to send the result elsewhere. I’m actually rather surprised I have this as “Likely” when it seems more of a “Toss-Up” but it’s right on that edge.
Who Could Potentially Upset: A Real Pain (24.56% of precursors), The Substance (15.79% of precursors). The two potential benefactors are A Real Pain, which won at BAFTA, and The Substance, which won at CCA. Both films will take home only two or one (respectively) other award but considering the subject matter of A Real Pain and all the praise Culkin has been giving Jesse Eisenberg, it’s entirely possible they’ll give him the award. What The Substance has is different, though, it’s the only genuinely bonkers, off-the-wall story on the list. That craziness will appeal to those who look for originality in their screenplays rather than things that resemble other films just with slightly different approaches. While I think Anora is going to win, I won’t be surprised by a Real Pain victory.
What I Would Like to See Happen: I’d have to give my vote to The Substance. Coralie Fargeat’s wildly original story was filled with homage and insight about the plight of society’s quiet dismissal of women as they age. I don’t think it can win. The CCA award is not a gateway to the Oscar but it would be nice to see Fargeat take something home.

TOSS-UPS

The remaining twelve Oscar categories are too close to call. They represent races where some precursors have either left doubts or have erased leads we thought were unquestionable.

Best International Film

Who Will Win: Emilia Pérez (25.42% of precursors). If you threw a leaf into the air and had to guess which square on a hopscotch field it would land on, that’s how you would probably feel about the categories rated as “Toss-Ups.” With these all listed in the order of most competitive to least, it seems appropriate to guess which way the International Film leaf will blow this year because it wasn’t always a toss-up. For those not familiar with the controversy, Emilia Pérez star Karlia Sofía Gascón didn’t scrub her Twitter account before becoming an Oscar contender so it was discovered that she’d had some very impolitic things to say about minorities in the recent past. This became fodder for a movement that has largely been successful in avoiding Netflix’s Oscar contender. While that hasn’t entirely resulted in the film tanking, it’s stopped all but two or three categories from shifting from contender to also-ran. One of those categories is International Feature Film. The film is centered around her character, so it’s very difficult to sever the connection. The Golden Globes and Critics Choice Association completed voting before the controversy arose, which explains why it did well with them. However, BAFTA voting was conducted entirely after the incident. As such, if there was going to be a chink in its armor, it would be at BAFTA where the film still managed to win. That’s why it sits as my current prediction but there’s a fly in that ointment.
Who Could Potentially Upset: I’m Still Here (6.78% of precursors), Flow (1.86% of precursors). I’m Still Here made a surprise showing in the Best Picture race after Fernanda Torres’ surprise win at the Golden Globes. This gave the film some cachet and because Emilia was slipping, I imagined I’m Still Here might pick up the slack. That it didn’t win at BAFTA suggests I was right to keep Emilia on top but there’s a good possibility that it manages to come out ahead in Oscar voting where political considerations are often (whether intended or not) more important. I still think Emilia wins but I’m Still Here and Flow could be beneficiaries of the fall out.
What I Would Like to See Happen: I’ve only seen two of these so far. Between Emilia and Flow, I’d go with Flow.

Best Visual Effects

Who Will Win: Dune: Part Two (68% of precursors). Another category that should be a slam dunk for the predicted winner but isn’t. Dune: Part Two has done well with precursors and has BAFTA and CCA on its side. What makes this competitive is the response from the Visual Effects Society.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (4% of precursors). The VES went with Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes. Both films are essentially sequels but they went with the mocap adventures of Kingdom over Dune, which is quite telling. That said, VES doesn’t have the best track record predicting the Oscar but if BAFTA can see its way to Dune, I expect the Oscars to do so as well.
What I Would Like to See Happen: To be frank, nothing really stood out to me as anything better than normal. A Dune: Part Two win would be just fine but I’d also be fine with any other winner as well.

Best Actress

Who Will Win: Demi Moore (26.23% of precursors). Before the Golden Globes, there were a couple of people who seemed more plausible than Demi Moore including non-nominated Marianne Jean-Baptiste. However, the Globes went with Moore and she gave the most compelling speech possible and got thrust into the front of the pack. Since then, she won CCA and SAG. The fly in the ointment is BAFTA.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Mikey Madison (45.90% of precursors), Fernanda Torres (4.92% of precursors). BAFTA went a surprising direction by selecting Mikey Madison who also happens to be the leader of the precursor pack. Her youth seemed like it might make her triumph difficult but if this were 1990s Oscar voters, I’d say she’d be an easy choice. However, with the diversification of the Academy’s membership, a performance like Moore’s is much more acceptable. Then again, so is a performance like Fernanda Torres’. I’ve heard from one Academy member in particular that she would be the hands-down winner if everyone watched her movie and that has to give you pause. That said, there are thousands of members so one member’s perspective isn’t indicative. Since Torres wasn’t nominated at BAFTA, we can’t really test that theory. As such, we’re left to guess. Narrative seems to favor Moore but another selection wouldn’t be out of the ordinary, though it might be somewhat shocking.
What I Would Like to See Happen: I hate to use the cliché about how much an actor puts into a role but that has never been more accurate than in describing the vulnerability and brazenness Demi Moore gave to Elisabeth Sparkle. Acknowledging her own age and her history in Hollywood, she infuses all of that into this role and I can’t imagine a more worthy winner. Mikey Madison was ok but I don’t really love her performance. Karla Sofía Gascón was decent in Emilia Pérez but she never got me fully emotionally invested in her success. Having said all that, Cynthia Erivo really did a tremendous job with Wicked. That character is very familiar to me, not only vocally but theatrically. I’m familiar with the book and the stage musical (saw a touring show and listened to the cast album). Erivo had some very big shoes to fill and she did it so much more successfully than I could have hoped. Those moments of trepidation, the frustration, the righteous anger, it all feels natural and well earned. While I certainly support Moore’s victory, a part of me will always wish that Erivo could take home the little golden guy.

Best Actor

Who Will Win: Adrien Brody (36.21% of precursors). All season long, I’ve felt Adrien Brody’s candidacy was weak. Here was an actor who won a surprise Oscar in 2002, becoming the youngest Best Actor winner in history. It wasn’t a very good performance, IMO, so perhaps that has colored my view of this race. Regardless, I’ve been looking for a Brody-killer all season and although Timothée Chalamet was the one I thought could usurp his lead, after GG, CCA, and BAFTA, I gave up the hope.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Timothée Chalamet (10.34% of precursors), Colman Domingo (36.21% of precursors), Ralph Fiennes (10.34% of precursors). Then something unexpected happened at SAG. Chalamet managed to pull off the win. Sure, he’s young but this is an actor who’s already on his second nomination and might have been on his third if Wonka had done better. Yet, youth in the Best Actor race is always a detriment and so Brody still seems like a possible winner. However, this is also a different Academy and while Brody’s intervening performances have largely been trash, Chalamet has continued to give consistently good performances since his Call Me by Your Name nomination. I will say that had the SAG awards happened before the Oscars, it might have changed the trajectory. I just don’t think it will have any impact. That, however, would also be barring a lot of disgust at his self-centered SAG speech. It was tone deaf and ungracious and so even the win probably wouldn’t have put him over the top, though it might have cost him the award either way.
What I Would Like to See Happen: I very much liked Brody in The Brutalist, so it’s not the performance I object to, it’s the idea of him becoming a two-time Oscar winner for a career that has been the epitome of mediocrity. Think Hilary Swank’s career after winning her two. So, while I won’t begrudge his awards for this film (from groups who didn’t recognize him back in 2002), I would lament the decision. Ralph Fiennes would be a fine winner even though his performance is way too non-explosive to pull off a surprise. Colman Domingo is also an actor whose done some fine work and who I wouldn’t be disappointed about winning an Oscar.

Best Original Score

Who Will Win: The Brutalist (21.43% of precursors). SCL and BAFTA both went for The Brutalist. That’s a lot of support for the film. It’s also a category that’s missing its heavy hitters (Challengers and Dune: Part Two). It’s the dregs of the race competing for victory.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Emilia Pérez (7.14% of precursors), The Wild Robot (11.90% of precursors), Conclave (2.38% of precursors), Wicked (0% of precursors). If it weren’t for the controversy, Emilia Pérez might well be in the lead here but only for the original song score. Can anyone even remember the background music? It also won the HMM award. Really, any of these selections could win, even the seemingly derivative Wicked. Even The Wild Robot has an SCL prize. Conclave is well supported as well. In a situation where it could go any direction, picking the BAFTA winner is probably the least bad option.
What I Would Like to See Happen: The Brutalist had many exceptional elements and its score was one of them. From the first trailer I saw using that “brutalist” style of score, I was supportive of a potential win. This coming from someone who adores the Wicked soundtrack. I just don’t understand how something that derived its themes from the stage musical would be considered original while Dune: Part Two would be too derivative of its predecessor. Emilia doesn’t really deserve the prize, so any of the other four would be ok with me.

Best Live Action Short Film

Who Will Win: I’m Not a Robot (0% of precursors). This category often favors humor and creativity over impassioned, forthright importance. As such, I’m Not a Robot, which is the only apolitical choice on this list, is very likely to win. It’s funny and inventive.
Who Could Potentially Upset: A Lien (0% of precursors), The Last Ranger (0% of precursors), Anuja (0% of precursors), The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent (0% of precursors). However, with the Academy you never know for sure what you’re going to get and these others have potential. A Lien is presently topical about ICE round-ups and the struggle of immigrants; The Last Ranger tackles the always-important dangers of the rhino-horn trade; Anuja is a modern Les Misérables in a sense; and The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent is just as current as A Lien but from an outsiders perspective. All of them have claims to being possible winners, so I’ll stick with my prediction of the lone comedy of the bunch.
What I Would Like to See Happen: I try not to make my predictions match up to my favorites but in this case, I think it’s warranted by the historical nature of the category. I wouldn’t mind A Lien winning either.

Best Animated Feature

Who Will Win: The Wild Robot (57.89% of precursors). When you have Annie, PGA, and CCA on your side, you have to think that your dominance of the precursors would secure your victory. However, as Across the Spider-Verse proved, you can pick up all the acclaim you like but if you’re a sequel or a byproduct of an American studio, you risk being felled by a foreign artist. For years, Disney/Pixar dominated this category and with its faltering, Academy voters have become interested in branching out and giving their awards to films not in that sphere of influence.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Flow (33.33% of precursors), Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (5.26% of precursors). That’s why Globe and Annie winner Flow has a great shot at overcoming The Wild Robot. It’s even got that Best International Feature nomination to bolster its credibility. The fly in the ointment is once again BAFTA. They went with Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl. Wallace and Gromit are the most Oscar-decorated animated characters in history with several Animated Short Film wins along with a Best Animated Feature win with Curse of the Were-Rabbit. The problem for that film is that BAFTA has an understandable British bias. That may entirely explain why the film won. Voters couldn’t pick between the other two and so Wallace and Gromit snuck in behind them to claim victory.
What I Would Like to See Happen: I’ve seen all but Inside Out 2 and I love them all in different ways. I wouldn’t have an issue with any one of the four winning, though I lean towards The Wild Robot because it’s more accessible and has a message that’s more resonant with kids who need to grow up with such messages than the all-silent Flow would be.

Best Directing

Who Will Win: Sean Baker (14.29% of precursors). One of the single most predictive precursors is the Directors Guild of America. They are so accurate that losing the award has often foreshadowed a frontrunner fumbling and that’s why Baker is currently sitting in the pole position. This also tracks with Anora‘s strength in Best Picture.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Brady Corbet (23.81% of precursors), Coralie Fargeat (17.46% of precursors), James Mangold (0% of precursors). Yet two other crucial precursors went to Corbet, BAFTA and GG. They are significantly less accurate so while his strong precursor showing (stronger than Baker’s) could foreshadow his Oscar win, Baker has to be the odds-on favorite. Of course a surprise win by Fargeat or industry veteran Mangold aren’t out of the question either.
What I Would Like to See Happen: I admire what Corbet did. Baker’s work is solid but I’m not as impressed with his film as some others are. Fargeat did some tremendous work but that lengthy New Year’s Eve scene was unnecessarily excessive and was entirely a directorial decision. My choice would be Jon M. Chu who breathed life into Wicked but I don’t have that option. I would give it to Brady for making an old-timey intermission-broken epic in VistaVision. It’s the kind of work we expect from filmmakers who have studied and are influenced by the past.

Best Cinematography

Who Will Win: The Brutalist (22% of precursors). What a strange little category. Historical understanding in this category has been virtually unimportant. None of the nominees genuinely feel like the kinds of movies that feel cinematographically compelling. That’s why I’m reticent to go anywhere but the BAFTA winner. The Brutalist feels like the most interestingly photographed of the nominees. That said, it’s a very weak frontrunner with such a low precursor response rate.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Nosferatu (42% of precursors), Maria (2% of precursors), Dune: Part Two (14% of precursors). Nosferatu is much more impressive in that regard, claiming nearly 50% of the precursors, including the CCA; however, the winner of the American Society of Cinematographers award was Maria, a thoroughly unexpected choice that carried over to the Oscar ballot. While ASC members value Edward Lachman, Academy voters probably couldn’t identify most of his best work. That doesn’t mean he can’t be an upset favorite but with the film only winning one precursor, it just doesn’t seem like it has the right profile for a win. Dune: Part Two could follow its predecessor to a win but the film has done significantly worse as the season has gone on than anyone expected so it probably doesn’t have quite enough support to claim the mantle. As such, I’m barely sticking with Brutalist but it’s for want of a more viable alternative.
What I Would Like to See Happen: Apart from the use of VistaVision, I didn’t see much in The Brutalist to impress me. Dune: Part Two looked good except its black-and-white scenes, which took you out of the film. I appreciate what Pablo Larraín has done in the past, so I could see Maria as being a favorite had I seen it. Unfortunately, the best cinematography of the year wasn’t nominated. Nickel Boys should have claimed this prize and without it in the competition, I really couldn’t care less what wins.

Best Film Editing

Who Will Win: Conclave (3.23% of precursors). This is one of the few categories I can’t decide on. There are two titles that seem like they would be sure things in any other year but neither of them claimed awards at BAFTA or the CCA. And without the American Cinema Editors winners to direct our thoughts, we’re left to our own devices. I’ve barely landed on the BAFTA winner and that’s only because I can’t quite sell myself on an Anora victory.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Anora (9.68% of precursors), The Brutalist (3.23% of precursors), Emilia Pérez (6.45% of precursors). The reason for that is the fact that the director is the editor. It has some stunningly well cut scenes, such as those in the strip club and in the mansion but the Academy just doesn’t love director-editors. Granted, it makes sense that a director would want to cut his own film but then superfluous material makes it in that an editor might rightly cut. That’s not really the case with Anora as it is pretty tightly edited and I can’t put my finger on any major mistakes in what is presented. If it weren’t for the collapse of Emilia Pérez, I’d have a film to latch onto as a likely winner. Then there’s The Brutalist, a film I’m surprised was included. If there’s a picture that had more unnecessary material left on the screen, it’s that one. I can’t imagine anyone voting for it but in a four-way race where the competition is tight, anything could sneak through. That film fits the bill for what the Academy typically honors. Of course, if the precursor leader for this year, Challengers, had been nominated, there would be no doubt it would be the certain winner. For now, it’s a toss-up.
What I Would Like to See Happen: I may not have loved Challengers as much as some but I will agree it was one of the best edited films of the year. However, I’m stuck with this group and while in another year I’d go with Anora, Wicked is significantly better. Blending action, music, dancing, and sound together is a challenging task and the film succeeded. I don’t think I’d really mind Conclave winning either since it was very well edited and seldom dull…given the material, that’s quite the accomplishment.

Best Documentary Short Subject

Who Will Win: Death by Numbers (0% of precursors). I usually rate the short film categories as toss-ups and while I have one that isn’t that way this year, this and Live Action fall into this category fairly easily. I can’t say exactly which film the Academy will love but unlike Live Action Short Film, Documentary Short Subject usually goes to something that has political importance. While a couple of them have a politically charged foundation, only Death by Numbers tugs at the heartstrings effectively. Told from the point of view of one of the victims of the Parkland school shooting. It’s a riveting watch and while I think the Academy will likely favor it, I can’t totally discount the others.
Who Could Potentially Upset: I Am Ready, Warden (0% of precursors), The Only Girl in the Orchestra (0% of precursors), Instruments of a Beating Heart (0% of precursors). I Am Ready, Warden is one of the other highly politicized stories about a death row inmate and the people around him who either want him dead or want him to be spared. It’s a surprisingly adroit short that does have some emotional heft but I just can’t imagine the Academy picking it as the year’s best. The Only Girl in the Orchestra is incredibly engaging following a prominent double-bassist who is ready to retire years after becoming the first female musician in the New York Philharmonic. You get to know her and her trailblazing but become invested in her story as her charm and uncomplicated style win you over. If they were looking for a feel good production, this might well be the winner. Then there’s Instruments of a Beating Heart. I didn’t care for it mostly because some of what happens feels rather abusive but it involves kids and that’s often catnip for some voters who might overlook that. Lastly, is the only nominee I cannot see winning. Incident takes no sides but its presentation of the videos collected during a fatal police shooting is intriguing and the documentary evokes an antiquated sense of not having an obvious slant. That in itself may be why it feels so disconnected and impersonal, which is why I don’t think it can win.
What I Would Like to See Happen: I wouldn’t have a problem with Death by Numbers, I Am Ready, Warden, or The Only Girl in the Orchestra winning. My choice would be Numbers followed by Orchestra.

Best Picture

Who Will Win: Anora (37.88% of precursors). At last we come to the most important award of the night. In recent years, epics have gone down to small independent movies like Nomadland, Moonlight, Parasite, and Everything Everywhere All at Once. Anora doesn’t feel like any of these titles. The first faced off against a weaker slate during the pandemic; Moonlight was a shock victory over the critically acclaimed La La Land; and Everything Everywhere All at Once was a big film with lots of technical aspects and while it would feel like an epic, it was far removed from the type of film that won in the 1980s and 1990s. Parasite is probably the closest in profile to Anora. Like that film, Anora was a critics’ darling that won the Critics Choice award for Best Picture. Unlike Parasite, Anora won both PGA and DGA but didn’t win at SAG like Parasite did. With a PGA/DGA win, it would seem a far more likely winner in Best Picture than any film.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Conclave (7.58% of precursors), The Brutalist (16.67% of precursors), The Substance (12.12% of precursors), I’m Still Here (0% of precursors), A Complete Unknown (3.03% of precursors). The BAFTA connection is also relevant here. When Parasite lost at DGA and PGA, it lost to 1917, which won at BAFTA. This year, Conclave picked up the BAFTA prize without getting PGA and DGA. It also got a surprise SAG win for Best Cast, which ups its profile enough to suggest it’s a possible spoiler. We can’t entirely rule out GG winner The Brutalist, which won the Drama Golden Globe to Emilia Pérez‘s Comedy/Musical one. Brutalist seemed like it would be right up the Academy’s alley and it could end up taking the same awards The Pianist did way back in 2002, excepting Original Screenplay. That film still came up short in Best Picture and I think it will do so again. The Globe just isn’t enough of a win to carry over to the Oscars (especially with nothing else major in support). Emilia Pérez could still do it but I would be incredibly shockeed if that happened. The Substance is probably too niche for a win but A Complete Unknown could surprise, especially if it picks up the Sound and Actor prizes. Ultimately, Anora makes a lot more sense as a winner given these conditions than any other film.

There’s also one other set of “guidelines” that I’ve talked little about this season but remains important. Best Picture has historically been given to films that have acting, directing, writing, and editing nominations. That gives Anora, The Brutalist, and Emilia Pérez a head start. Conclave had all but a directing nomination, The Substance missed in Editing, and A Complete Unknown also didn’t get an editing nomination. Wicked got acting and editing citations. Nickel Boys and I’m Still Here only got one other nomination, writing and acting respectively. Then Dune: Part Two has none. We can probably toss these latter four entirely. Conclave missing the directing nomination was quite surprising, especially since A Complete Unknown actually made it in. That is the main reason I don’t think Conclave can win. That said, CODA managed it. CODA could also make a case for anything really, though, but none of these films built a groundswell of support throughout Oscar season in the same way, so we’ll still disregard the bottom four. The Substance and A Complete Unknown have more solid footing without the editing nomination. Although it’s a pretty accurate precursor, it is one of the weaker ones. Acting, Directing, and Writing are far more crucial to a Best Picture win. This is why I’ve kept Anora as one of the top potential winners. It has all four nominations and has managed to maintain voter interest throughout the season while Brutalist and Emilia Pérez have faded for different reasons.
What I Would Like to See Happen: Wicked is easily my choice for best of the year. I wouldn’t mind Anora winning too much but I’d prefer Conclave to it. The Brutalist just has too many liabilities (hello, Felicity Jones) for me to support a Best Picture win but I could at least understand that. The Substance would be a thrilling choice as well.

And that’s the 97th Academy Awards. I would like to think I tapped into some amount of prescience here or perhaps I’m just hoping to be a good guesser. Whatever the reason, I really hope to do better with my winner predictions than with my nominations predictions this year.

Now, as much as I love Oscar season, I will be taking a break after I do my post-Oscars write-up. Our first predictions for the 98th will be coming out sometime in April. So enjoy the run-up to the big night and, hopefully, we’ll all be pleasantly surprised at least more than a few times on Sunday.