We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of June and see what films faltered. Then we’ll look forward to August and see what has some potential.
Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts
June was a month of successes and flops, both on the theatrical release side and also on the limited release side. Let’s start with the box office and the underperformance of five of six titles that all had Oscar potential before their dismal showings.
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse was the only success in the bunch thanks to affinity for the prior film as well as stellar reviews. Its current main competition for the Best Animated Feature Oscar collapsed at the box office thanks to Disney’s own dissolution of its brand with its streaming platform. Elemental also did poorly with critics, continuing a trend for the once monolithic Pixar brand. This cuts its Oscar chances down to almost nothing. While it still has a chance to earn a nomination for Best Animated Feature, it is no longer the frontrunner it could have been. Another competitor, DreamWorks’ Ruby Gillman, Teenage Krane, did even worse with critics and was a categorical flop at the box office. Its chances of a nomination have dwindled enough that it might struggle to even get in at this juncture.
Two of the other flops weren’t likely to be major Oscar contenders, but both had chances at nominations in either Sound or Visual Effects, the latter being the more likely. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts can still overcome its mediocre box office/critical performance and score an Oscar nomination, but that franchise has struggled for several years, so it’s not a clear winner. The Flash, on the other hand, had slightly better reviews, which might help it into an Oscar nomination for Best Visual Effects, but either of these titles will have to face the music of not being prime contenders any longer.
Lastly, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny got reviews on par with the second film in the franchise, which isn’t a promising development. Still, Steven Spielberg cannot be counted out and while the film is certainly not a competitor in any high profile categories, all of the craft categories, especially Original Score and Production Design, are still strong possibilities.
Having tackled those, let’s look at five films I would have considered to have Oscar potential and two that were not expected but whose reviews might well bolster their chances.
Let’s start with the unqualified successes. Past Lives was on my list of potential Oscar contenders going into June and not only does it remain a solid competitor, it improves its standings thanks to terrific reviews. The film may well be one of the key contenders this year. Although I wasn’t entirely sold on its chances going into the month, I’m more bullish on its potential coming out of it.
Two titles that did well with critics, but weren’t on my list of potential Oscar competitors, are Every Body and Blue Jean. The former is really only on track for a Best Documentary Feature nomination while the latter might still struggle with Oscar voters in the narrow indie lane at the Academy Awards. Blue Jean has some minor potential, but with Past Lives soaking up all the attention, its chances are somewhat diminished.
Of the four other titles I had my eye on going into June, The Angry Black Girl and Her Monster, Asteroid City, and Revoir Paris did decently with critics while Daliland didn’t. That latter film was only really in contention for Ben Kingsley’s performance, but those chances seem to have dropped drastically. Of the other three, only Asteroid City really had much chance at Oscar consideration, but its strong, but not overwhelmingly positive reviews, are unlikely to impress and while it could still get a handful of craft nominations, its chances at a Best Picture or other above-the-line categories nominations have dwindled.
With June out of the way, let’s look forward to August. There are three wide releases that could have some potential, but in different ways. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem isn’t likely to be a broad Oscar contender, but it will at least contend in Best Animated Feature where the collapse of several other films might give it a chance. It has a lot of the same appeal for it that Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse did, so it could do better than expected, but it will need strong critical support to become a competitor.
The Last Voyage of the Demeter looks like it could be hampered by its horror genre, but it’s a period production, which could help it into the Production Design and Costume Design races. Solid reviews aren’t necessary, but they will help. Then there’s Blue Beetle, the last of the original DCEU productions to release to theaters. While it’s targeted at Hispanic audiences, solid reviews could bolster it. That said, it’s still only going to compete for Best Visual Effects. Anything beyond that is unlikely.
Finally, there are two limited releases that I think could have potential, though one of them I’ve become bearish on lately. White Bird is a semi-sorta follow up to Wonder. What sets this film apart is that its set prior to World War II and compares the lives of a disabled boy and a Jewish girl. That heart-tugging element could bolster the film’s chances, but like its predecessor, I wouldn’t expect too much without a huge showing with critics. Helen Mirren goes supporting in that film, but the other film on my wait-and-see list gives her the lead. Golda got mediocre reviews coming out of its festival run, but that doesn’t always hinder acting nominations, especially in Best Actress. Mirren’s make-up intensive performance certainly looks like a contender, but a full U.S. release should tell us more if that’s a possibility or not.
And that’s it for my August forecast. We’ll see you again next month. Read on for thoughts from Pete and Thomas.
Pete Patrick’s Thoughts
June Retrospective
Expect Spider-Man: Arcoses the Spider-Verse to be nominated for Best Animated Feature. It could also receive nods for Best Picture and Best Visual Effects.
The only live-action June release that seemingly has any hope of receiving Oscar recognition is the live action version of The Little Mermaid and that only in Visual Effects.
August Forecast
Nothing major, but there are two longshot Oscar hopefuls releasing in August, A Little Prayer and Golda for the performances of David Strathairn and Helen Mirren, respectively.
Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts
June did not bring too many Oscar possibilities, though perhaps three of the five animated films might have come out then. Indiana Jones and Spider-Man might earn several noms each, but not sure if they will.
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse has to be considered a shoo-in for animated feature, though it could possibly rack up some nominations in other categories if it is as well received as the first film.
Past Lives could pick up some noms if South Korea enters it as their film. Chances are slim otherwise.
Transformers… could pull off noms for sound and visual effects, but that seems unlikely.
The Flash is a possibility for visual effects, but I expect it to be supplanted by other films.
Elemental and Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken stand reasonable possibilities of animated feature noms, but neither seem guaranteed now.
Asteroid City cannot be ruled out, but the critical reaction to Wes Anderson’s latest film makes it seem highly unlikely to score any noms.
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny could score visual effects, sound, makeup and hairstyling and score, but the movie hasn’t done that well, so maybe not.
A quick look at next month’s upcoming movies leaves me looking forward to the fall.
White Bird could pull off a nom or two if it’s any good as Nazi films can never be discounted.
I know nothing about Babylon 5: The Road Home, but good science fiction can always get noms for visual effects and sound and maybe makeup.
Nothing else looks to be a possibility at this point.
