We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of July and see what films succeeded and faltered. Then we’ll look forward to September and see what has some potential.
Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts
July Retrospective
July was an odd month at the box office with several films doing well but not exceptionally so. The few hits are just barely so. Let’s start by eliminating two films that were slated for July release but ultimately pushed back. Strangely, both Caught Stealing and The Roses have moved to August 29.
There are five remaining titles with Oscar chances. Let’s look at them in box office order. And at the bottom, the enigmatically wide released Eddington, which barely passed $10 million and decent but unexceptional reviews. While it could still make some waves with critics but unlikely to a degree that will resurrect its chances.
Next up but not by much money, we have the animated flop Smurfs, which has taken in a paltry $30 million so far. With dismal reviews, this film is now officially a non-contender.
The Fantastic Four: First Steps was supposed to bring Marvel back to the forefront of the box office and critical reception. It fell short of both. The box office is decent at around $230 million but that’s a far cry from their glory days. The reviews were definitely better but Thunderbolts* managed to score much higher despite it’s lower prominence. The film is still likely to figure in many craft categories but guaranteed nominations are no longer.
On the mediocre review front, Jurassic World Rebirth is probably the top of the box office winners. At $326 million and counting, the film was undeniably a box office success but as the prior films in the series have proven, that’s not an Oscar guarantee and I really don’t see anything with this film’s performance at the box office or with critics that will help it score any Oscar nominations.
Lastly is the rebirth of Superman, which got decent reviews and soared at the box office. While $331 is solid, it’s the reviews that will really matter. The film scored decently with critics but it’s not the relaunch that breaks a film out of the technical hole of the Oscars, namely blockbusters rarely compete outside of the crafting categories.
Now, let’s move to the month with the weakest history of the final four months of the year for Oscar contention.
September Forecast
Three big Oscar, one minor, and a craft-only contender release in September. They’ll need both box office success and critical acclaim to survive.
We will get the craft-only contender out of the way first. Although the TV series was Emmy catnip, the subsequent films have not been up Academy voters’ alleys. Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale looks like many of the others and outside of Production Design and Costume Design, it likely has little chance of succeeding.
The minor contender on the list is Eleanor the Great, Scarlett Johansson’s directorial debut. It was also supposed to be in contention for star June Squibb. Unfortunately, in spite of the reported ovation at Cannes, the reviews were mixed and that’s not a good sign for a film like this, which will likely be forgotten in the heat of September unless it can mine box office gold.
Of the three big Oscar players, one of them has been seen. The History of Sound received generally positive reviews but the coverage out of Cannes was that the film was poorly received. It’s an odd way of looking at things. Needless to say the film was supposed to be one of the power players this year and its buzz cratered after that. It still has a chance, especially if it’s revived by critics groups, though it’s likely only to figure in the acting races if nowhere else.
The last two films on the list are unknowns. Both feature major industry attention but either or both could flop with a September release making the potential greater.
We’ll start with the one that only has A-list stars. A Big Bold Beautiful Journey features Margot Robbie and Colin Farrell in an existential romantic drama. Directed by Kogonada, his track record isn’t great but the actors at the top of the ticket have done well with the Academy in recent years. The premise presented in the trailer is fascinating and it has some Pleasantville-like vibes. Had the film released in a 10 Best Picture era, I am sure it would have been nominated. I think this one has potential unless it’s worse than it looks. We’ll definitely have to see how critics respond. It could be one of the first major contenders of the year if it’s really good. A dynamic box office would also help.
The other may feature major actors but it’s the director at the helm that makes this a must-see, important contender for the year. Paul Thomas Anderson’s new film, One Battle After Another, is sure to be an Oscar player even if critics aren’t too high on it. With stars like Leonardo DiCaprio, Sean Penn, and Benicio del Toro, you have to think it could do quite well. It’s a bit quirky and feels a bit similar to Caught Stealing, but it could also be a Coen-esque triumph for the director so keep it penciled in for year-end awards. Of course, terrible reviews and a box office flop might change that calculus but at least DiCaprio will remain in the conversation even if the film does not.
And that’s all I have for September, now on to my fellow contributors.
Pete Patrick’s Thoughts
July Retrospective
The Fantastic 4: First Steps, Superman, and Jurassic World: Rebirth all opened to strong box-office with the first two also garnering strong reviews. All three have awards potential in tech categories but none are likely to show up in acting, writing, or directing categories.
September Forecast
The most highly anticipated film seems to be Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another with an all-star cast led by Leonardo DiCaprio. Also sparking interest are Kogonada’s romantic fantasy, A Big Bold Beautiful Journey starring Colin Farrell and Margot Robbie, and for the older crowd, Simon Curtis’ Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale for which Joely Richardson and Paul Giamatti join the cast of the popular TV series for their third and final post-series theatrical film. Will any of them figure into year-end awards anticipation or will we still be waiting for October for excitement in that area to ratchet up?
Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts
July Retrospective
Three films that came out in July could possibly get nominations for special effects and even less likely for sound, the reboots of Superman and The Fantastic Four: First Steps and Jurassic World: Rebirth. Summer blockbusters can often do well in the special effects category, so all of them have to be considered possibilities.
The only other film that could possibly snag a nomination might be Eddington. The drama set during the early days of COVID might get a nomination for screenplay, but I would not bet on it.
September Forecast
With the Toronto International Film Festival starting on the fourth of September, we should get a better idea of the upcoming Oscar possibilities. It is often a launching pad for major winners. Aside from that, there is not a lot opening that seem guaranteed of nominations.
None of the previous two Downton Abbey films have scored a nomination, so while it could get ones for costume and production design, it likely will not.
Spinal Tap II: The End Continues could pull off a song nomination, though the first film did not succeed there.
The History of Sound has slim possibilities of a supporting actor nom for Josh O’Connor and perhaps adapted screenplay, but neither seems likely.
A Big Bold Beautiful Journey might pull off an original screenplay nomination, but that is the most it could hope for.
The Lost Bus could bring Matthew McConaughey and America Ferrara second nominations, but neither seems to have risen to the top five in their respective categories.
Predators and Riefenstahl could get nominations for feature documentary, but one never knows what that branch of the Academy will deem worthy.
June Squibb is again talked about as a possible late career nomination for Eleanor the Great, but that seems less likely with time.
Like any Paul Thomas Anderson film, One Battle After Another is brought up as an Oscar possibility. Best actor, supporting actor, supporting actress, casting, picture and director are all mentioned as places it could score. The most likely one it could get would be screenplay as I think the others will end up out of the top five placements. Having seen the trailer, I find it hard to believe that it will get much of anything.
