We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of August and see what films succeeded and faltered. Then we’ll look forward to October and see what has some potential.
Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts
August Retrospective
August, as usual, was kind of a bum month for Oscar contenders. Of the four I highlighted last month, none particularly engaged audiences and while critics loved three of them, none of them are likely to benefit from that in the coming months.
The best reviewed of the four was Sketch, a children’s fantasy film. The box office was dismal and while the reviews might have helped it, the genre doesn’t play well with Oscar voters. The next best was Highest 2 Lowest, a Spike Lee adaptation of an Akira Kurosawa film. Lee is usually pretty strong at the box office but even with Denzel Washington in the lead, the film failed to impress and that might be a signal for the film’s eventual Oscar misses. That said, don’t count out Washington just yet.
Caught Stealing has decent reviews but a wide release box office tally that doesn’t speak well to its chances. Darren Aronofsky is an iffy director when it comes to Oscar chances so a weak critical performance isn’t likely to bolster its potential. Finally, there’s The Roses in addition to being a box office dud, it was also a critical failure. The adaptation of War of the Roses had potential but it appears to have been squandered.
Instead of these four films, the real action was in the late-August festivals (Toronto was early September but we’ll talk about it here anyway).
The festival had a few major stand outs that look like our pre-Oscar forecasts may have been right about. Hamnet won the audience award at Toronto, Frankenstein came in second, Father Mother Sister Brother took a controversial top place prize at Venice while The Voice of Hind Rajab emerges as a major International Feature contender. There were other films of note but these were the four that seemed to garner the most buzz-worthy prizes. We’ll have to talk more about them when they release.
October Forecast
As to October, there is an embarrassment of riches coming to a theater near you with six potential Oscar contenders releasing wide and eleven limited releases. We’ll go through them all in the order of Oscar potential split between wide and limited releases.
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere will likely be the biggest Oscar contender of the wide releases thanks to its subject matter. A biopic of Bruce Springsteen, the film features hot-at-the-moment Jeremy Allen White (The Bear) in a Scott Cooper film. Cooper has been trying to find a vehicle to get him to the Oscars big time and when you tackle a legend like Springsteen, you have a good chance. Springsteen is one of those music superstars that everyone knows and most people love. If A Complete Unknown can make a late break at the Oscars, this film can too. It did decently in its Telluride debut but that’s not the crowd this film hopes to please.
One of the films that was indisputably helped by its festival run is The Smashing Machine, a biopic of UFC champion Mark Kerr. Director Benny Safdie hasn’t quite broken through with Oscar voters and this is another less-than-respected actor (Dwayne Johnson) taking on a career-defining role for the filmmaker and with Oscar nominee Emily Blunt at his side, the film has a slightly better chance to score some nominations. That said, Safdie hasn’t really broken through yet and while the film has done decently at the festivals, Johnson got no awards and the film still has to impress audiences before it can be considered a definite contender. Still, it’s in the race.
It’s hard to know how to think about Kiss of the Spider Woman‘s chances. Every critic I’ve seen talk about it talked voluminously about how much they enjoyed it. Yet, it released at Sundance and buzz didn’t materialize. It wasn’t well liked and the film seemed to hibernate into a chrysalis for most of the year. It’s finally releasing and perhaps they’ve tinkered with the edit? Bill Condon has succeeded at scoring Oscar nominations for big musical projects so it cannot be counted out. From the trailers, the production design and costumes are gorgeous and have to be considered threats for nominations even if the film isn’t but if it turns into a box office hit, we might have to reconsider its chances.
One of only two wide releases that didn’t get a festival release, Tron: Ares is Disney’s third film in the series and it looks to be its most visually outstanding yet. The real world setting will enhance the action and allow the visual effects to feel unique. Tron: Legacy was surprisingly not nominated for Visual Effects but did nab a Sound Editing nomination. Unfortunately, that category has been merged into Best Sound where films that are largely sound effects achievements aren’t getting recognized as often. The film does look like it could earn a nomination for Visual Effects but there are a lot of contenders in that space this year so there is no sure thing for this film.
Roofman debuted to modest acclaim at Toronto and you have to consider director Derek Cianfrance a potent booster for the film’s chances. He’s gotten nominations for his actors before so there is potential. That said, the film barely got any coverage after its festival bow and it appears to be a comedy at a time when dramas are ascendant. While it might still have some chances, you have to consider them minimal.
Lastly, and most certainly least of these is Pets on a Train. This animated feature looks like it might be a crowd pleaser but also looks like it will be a critical dud. Its inclusion is mostly because the year in animation has been devoid of a major hit, at least nothing that would guarantee an Oscar nomination. If this film is better than it looks (like Dog Man was earlier this year), it could be a contender but I wouldn’t hold your breath.
From here on out, it’s limited releases and the one that many doubted but seems to be a bona fide success is Frankenstein. It’s an adaptation of material that has been done to death and that might have been part of the reticence to recognize its chances. However, in the hands of Guillermo del Toro, any old fashioned or overused story can gain new life. The second place finish at Toronto definitely tells us it’s a crowd pleaser and with Del Toro’s recent history of strong Oscar contention, this has to be considered the biggest contender of October.
There was a time when a film like Bugonia would be dismissed. It’s unusual premise and zaniness were turn offs to many Academy voters. After the minor success of The Lobster and the major success of Poor Things, Yorgos Lanthimos can no longer be considered an Academy outsider and this film should be taken seriously. There were strong opinions out there about the film and while it initially seems to be divisive, there’s no question that acting nominations are likely coming. How broadly the Academy embraces it remains to be seen but it’s a solid contender at this juncture.
Oscar nominee Edward Berger isn’t locking himself into a single type of film. His breakthrough was a re-adaptation of All Quiet Along the Western Front. His follow up was Vatican-set papal conclave mystery. Ballad of a Small Player, on paper seems like it’s similar in theme to Lost in Translation but the first trailer suggested it has a touch of bizarreness and that makes it different enough to question its chances. The only thing I’ve really heard about the film is that Berger is still very much at the peak of his profession so it could be a contender, especially for star Colin Farrell.
Luca Guadagnino may have had a success with Call Me by Your Name but his subsequent Oscar contenders have largely come up dry. That’s why After the Hunt is lower on the list than it might normally be. A #MeToo-era drama about sexual impropriety on a college campus is loaded with strong actors but there hasn’t been much buzz out of its Venice debut. That suggests that he might well be out of luck this year but don’t count out recognition for stars Julia Roberts, Andrew Garfield, and Ayo Edebiri.
We’re now getting into films that have an iffy chance at Oscar consideration and one of those films is Hedda, a new adaptation of Henrik Ibsen’s noted play Hedda Gabler. Tessa Thompson has been delivering strong work for years and this seemed like it might have had potential, especially under the watch of director Nia DaCosta. It didn’t generate much buzz out of Toronto and so the film seems to be fading quite quickly. A strong box office play might help but that seems difficult in a month that is so packed with other potential contenders.
Still trying to prove her Best Directing win for The Hurt Locker, Kathryn Bigelow’s A House of Dynamite needed an explosive debut out of Venice but the response has been tepid. While the reviews so far have been solid, if she couldn’t quite seal the deal with Zero Dark Thirty and flopped with Detroit, it seems unlikely she’s going to make it back to the Oscars with this one, though its timely narrative might bolster its chances.
Richard Linklater has two pictures out this year that could have Oscar voters buzzing but the one with the best chance is Nouvelle Vague. Filmed in black-and-white and looking back at Jean-Luc Godard’s making of Breathless, the film piques the curiosity of any film history buff and I’m sure that Martin Scorsese would be all over the film but Linklater’s films since Boyhood have failed to generate the same kind of success and although it premiered at Cannes four months ago, it’s barely been talked about sense. It could contend with a strong bow with critics but the sea of potential critics’ darlings is so high that it might just get lost in the shuffle.
The only reason anyone is talking about Anemone is that three-time Oscar winner Daniel Day-Lewis came out of retirement to co-write and star in son Ronan’s film. While the first trailer suggests he may give an explosive performance, the film looks a little bland and while Day-Lewis is well respected, none of his six Oscar-nominated performances came from films that were otherwise ignored by the Academy. Critics could rescue the film but this was a film that should have debuted at one of the major festivals but is opening at the New York Film Festival instead…that might bolster its chances by making it a more recent victor but a lot will ride on just how enthusiastic critics are on whether or not he can get a return-to-acting nomination.
Speaking of Richard Linklater earlier, his other 2025 release, Blue Moon, starring frequent collaborator Ethan Hawke, also takes a look at entertainment history, though this one is targeted at Broadway rather than Hollywood. The film is centralized to Hawke’s Lorenz Hart, cataloguing his alcoholism and mental health issues during the opening of Oklahoma!. Like with Nouvelle Vague, it’s clear Linklater wants to examine often ignored segments of entertainment history but whether they were ignored because there wasn’t much there or because they wouldn’t sell well, it’s not certain. Whatever the reason, Hawke might be a stealth contender for Best Actor but this film has put up very little buzz since it’s Berlin Film Festival debut, so I’m not counting on it.
Rose Byrne has received her best notices to date for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, a character study of a woman spiraling into a mental health collapse. The film premiered at Sundance and has literally been kicking around for the intervening eight months with very little attention. She might pick up some minor critics prizes (or even a big one if NYFCC or LAFCA decide to give her a boost) but I don’t see her as being a major player this year, especially against a crowded field.
Lastly is It Was Just an Accident. Director Jafar Panahi has been under house arrest since 2011 and is unable to leave Iran. Although he had been banned from making films for a time, he’s made a handful since and one of his most acclaimed post-incarceration films so far is It Was Just an Accident. Because his political commentary is very subtle to avoid being re-convicted, it’s still there and while that can be appealing to the Academy, his films have struggled to gain traction with Oscar voters. This film could change that since it’s his most acclaimed film to date but beyond International Feature, I think he runs up against The Voice of Hind Rajab as the belle of the International Feature ball this year and may still not get the respect he’s due.
That was a lot. So many films releasing in October and that means November and December are sure to be just as busy but now that I’m signing off (finally), let’s give Pete and Thomas their turns.
Pete Patrick’s Thoughts
August Retrospective
The most talked about release of August 2025 was Zach Greggers’ horror film, Weapons which opened early in the month and dominated the box office all month long and into September.
Julia Garner, Josh Brolin, and Alden Ehrenreich were the leads, but veteran actress Amy Madigan was the film’s standout in a role that could earn her a second Oscar nomination, her first since 1985’s Twice in a Lifetime exactly forty years ago.
October Forecast
There are lots of eagerly awaited releases on tap for October.
Friday October 3 kicks off the month with the wide opening of Roofman, and the limited releases of Anemone, The Smashing Machine, and Avatar: The Way of Water: 3D, all of which will be vying for box office gold and awards recognition.
TRON: Ares and Kiss of the Spider Woman open wide on Friday October 10, while If I Had Legs I’d Kick You goes into limited release.
It Was Just an Accident and Ballad of a Small Player will go into limited release on Wednesday October 15. Two days later, After the Hunt will be given a wide release while Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein and Blue Moon will be given limited releases.
Friday October 22 will see the wide release of Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere and the limited release of Bugonia which will expand the following Friday which will appropriately be Halloween.
Some will be hits and factor into year-end awards while others will flop and fade away quickly. Only time will tell which will be which.
Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts
August Retrospective
No films that opened in August look likely to score Oscar nominations. The one possibility is Highest 2 Lowest, the latest Spike Lee joint. He is not an artist who can be ruled out but this seemed to be viewed as one of his lesser films. It might net nominations for picture, director or adapted screenplay, but that seems pretty unlikely.
October Forecast
There are definitely a number of films coming out in October that could prove Oscar players. We are getting into the fall season when studios have held their contenders for late releases, so there are finally some films to look forward to.
The Smashing Machine has Dwayne Johnson being seriously talked about as a possible Oscar nominee. I am not certain if I buy that and the trailer left me dubious about the film, but at this point both he and Emily Blunt have to be in consideration. It might score a nom for Makeup & Hairstyling too.
The much awaited return of Daniel Day-Lewis to acting means he could score a nomination for Anemone. But so little is known about the film that I would not even pencil him in as a possibility just yet.
Every few years Jennifer Lopez is talked about as a first-time nominee. This year it is for Kiss of the Spider Woman, though mixed reviews are making that less likely. The relative newcomer Tonatiuh seems the more likely nominee, but it could well be a film that ends up with nothings. Bill Condon is unlikely to repeat his success of Chicago.
Tron: Ares is a likely nominee for visual effects.
After the Hunt sounded great on paper, strong cast led by Julia Roberts. But less than mediocre reviews are making it likely to not score anything.
A House of Dynamite could bring Kathryn Bigelow nominations again as it could be up for Picture and director and possibly original screenplay. I do not expect it to get much else even if it pulls off those. Nuclear war thrillers tend not to get lots of noms.
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You could pull off a nomination for Rose Byrne’s gutsy performance, but that is likely the only nomination it would get.
Ballad of a Small Player could pull off nominations for picture and actor, Colin Farrell, but early reviews are not kind and it may fade into obscurity.
Frankenstein should make a big splash in all the tech categories, but the mixed reviews may keep it from doing much above the line.
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere looks to be this year’s musical biopic that does good. Nominations for picture, actor, supporting actor and adapted screenplay all seem pretty set. Sound and perhaps a couple other below the line noms could happen too.
Ever since Poor Things, Yorgos Lanthimos’ films are talked up as possible major contenders. Kinds of Kindness did not live up to the hype, but early reviews of Bugonia make it seem possible. Picture, actor and actress all are likely at this point.
There is a faint possibility that Hedda could nab a nomination for Tessa Thompson, but the strength of the category makes that seem unlikely.
Little Amelie or the Character of Rain is a possibility for animated feature. At this point I would say it is not likely to happen but it could.
