We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of July and see what films faltered. Then we’ll look forward to September and see what has some potential.
Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts
July Retrospective
Let’s start this week looking back at July.
The wide release front proved to be a smorgasbord for popular entertainment that also has Oscar potential. Barbie and Oppenheimer were the clear leaders, but even Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Part One did well at the box office and all three films were well regarded by critics. Haunted Mansion, on the other hand, was the opposite, playing miserably at the box office and being savaged by critics. A split decision faced Joy Ride, which was a box office bomb, but which got strong reviews. The aforementioned three are likely to parlay those box office successes into Oscar nominations with Barbie and Oppenheimer both contending for Best Picture and slew of other categories while Mission: Impossible will be relegated to the craft awards. Joy Ride might still be a player for original screenplay, at least with critics, but it’s unlikely to parlay its financial failure into Oscar nominations.
Four limited releases were on my radar back in June, with Earth Mama earning terrific reviews, Afire picking up solid ones, and Biosphere and Sympathy for the Devil pulling mediocre notices. While all but Sympathy could get some attention from critics, none of them have the profile to translate into big Oscar contenders.
September Forecast
September is usually one of the weaker months in terms of Oscar contenders releasing at the box office. A scant four films with potential are releasing and I’m only optimistic about one of them. Let’s start with that optimistic choice: The Creator. In the long tradition of science-fiction, a film like this has significant potential to not just speak to the human condition, but to transcend the genre limitations of the Oscars. It will have to impress critics first, but if it does, watch out Academy.
Two other wide releases that might have minor potential are the latest Agatha Christie adaptation, A Haunting in Venice, and the latest tech-bro comedy, Dumb Money. Both films have plenty of pedigree, but neither are slam dunk contenders. Haunting suffers as the third film in a series that has yet to get an Oscar nomination. Dumb Money might have just too much dumb in it to be successful. That said, the latter is helmed similar to The Big Short and if it pulls the same kind of acclaim, it could be in the race.
The last September box office release I want to look at, albeit briefly, is The Good Mother. Hilary Swank has two Oscars under her belt, but has been starring in one dud after the other and this one sadly looks like another. That said, if it turns out to be better than expected, she could enter the Oscar race.
While the September box office might be a weak time for Oscar contenders to release, there are three major festivals that will have plenty of Oscar contenders on deck showing this month: Venice, Toronto, and Telluride. At the time of this post, Telluride hadn’t announced its competition slate, so we don’t know what they offer, but Venice and Toronto both have strong films showing, though Venice seems to have the more impressive roster.
As such, let’s start with Toronto. There, the aforementioned Dumb Money will compete against Lee and Nyad, which are two of this Oscar season’s biggest remaining question marks. Any or all of them could come out of the festival as major contenders, but they could also be duds. Watch for the film to win the audience award as that picture has a solid chance of getting at least a Best Picture nomination.
Venice has a ton of new content from major filmmakers, including a stacked slate of in-competition titles as well as a solid slate of out-of-competition offerings. Let’s start with the films not competing at Venice, but showing: Coup de Chance is Woody Allen’s latest film. He’s been on a downswing lately, so who knows if it will be any good. He’ll also have to contend with a hostile electorate. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar is a short film from Wes Anderson and with Asteroid City a flop, this could be his best shot at an Oscar nomination this year. La Sociedad de la Nieve is J.A. Bayona’s latest and is a biopic about a team of rugby players who crash land in the Andes. Bayona’s struggled to get Oscar’s attention, but this could be a contender. The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial was originally slated for a small screen release, but the recent death of director William Friedkin might encourage a traditional theatrical release. Hit Man is a new Richard Linklater comedy. Linklater has an off-and-on relationship with Oscar voters and with so little known about this film, it’s likely to be an off. Finally, The Palace is Roman Polanski’s latest feature. You can take or leave late-career Polanski, but his legal issues might make it difficult for Oscar voters to give him the consideration.
Now, let’s look at the six films that are competing in Venice Maestro is one of the most anticipated titles of the year and marks Bradley Cooper’s latest directorial effort. He stars, but it also boasts an impressive cast in a biopic of Leonard Bernstein, which will hit the Oscars right in the sweet spot. If it’s an impressive sophomore effort, Cooper could finally win the Oscar he’s been chasing. Next is Priscilla, Sofia Coppola’s latest film, a biopic about Elvis Presley’s wife Priscilla Presley. Coppola hasn’t been on Oscar’s radar in some time, but this could the film that puts her back in the limelight.
Michael Fassbender stars in David Fincher’s latest film, The Killer. It’s an action thriller that might play better to audiences than to Oscar voters. We’ve already seen a lot about Yorgos Lanthimos’ bizarre latest feature Poor Things, but no one’s seen it yet. It’s certainly positioned to make stars Emma Stone, Mark Ruffalo, and Willem Dafoe Oscar contenders along with the rest of the craftspeople who worked on the film.
Michael Mann has a new film out, this one a biopic of Italian sports carmaker Enzo Ferrari. Adam Driver takes on another famed Italian stylemaker in the aptly titled Ferrari alongside the likes of Shailene Woodley, Jack O’Connell, and Penélope Cruz. Mann is another well respected filmmaker that Oscar hasn’t paid attention to much in recent years, but this one could change that. Finally, Pablo Larraín has whose Jackie and Spencer both earned their stars Oscar nominations even if the films weren’t heavily favored in other categories. Not a lot is known about El Conde, but we should know more about it soon. Keep it on your list in pencil.
And that’s everything to look forward to in September. Will the festivals redirect the conversation or will they rubber stamp a lot of what we’ve thought so far. Either way, the Oscar landscape will get much more expansive by the time September is out.
Pete Patrick’s Thoughts
July Retrospective
As expected, both Oppenheimer and Barbie opened to strong review and box-office in July and both will factor into this year’s awards including multiple Oscar nominations for both.
September Forecast
The only September release that looks like it might repeat the box-office success of Oppenheimer and Barbie is the post-apocalyptic thriller, The Creator, which could be a contender for visual effects and sound.
Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts
July Retrospective
There were not a lot of films that seemed like Oscar possibilities released in July, but Barbie and Oppenheimer should make up for that.
Mission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning – Part One could be a contender for sound, visual effects, cinematography, and editing. I don’t view it as a strong contender in any of those categories, but it might pull off a couple of nominations.
The phenomenon of Barbie makes me think it might prove to be an Oscar contender after all. It definitely has been a box office sensation which should help it pull off a best picture nom. I am not certain that Greta Gerwig will get a directing nod to go with it, but I would not be surprised if she does. She might also pull off a nom for original screenplay. Both Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling are poised for possible acting noms. It seems set for production design and costume design. Film editing, original song, and makeup and hairstyling all have to be considered possibilities.
Oppenheimer has also proved a box office success and is a very talked-about movie. It would not surprise me if it ends up being the most nominated film of the year. Picture, director, actor (for Cillian Murphy), adapted screenplay, film editing, cinematography, production design, costume design, and sound all seem set, with score a strong possibility too. Emily Blunt and Robert Downey, Jr. look like likely supporting nominees and Matt Damon could even sneak in as a possible second supporting actor. I would also not put makeup and hairstyling out of reach for their fine work of making the actors look like the real life characters.
In a weak year, Haunted Mansion might pull off nominations for production design or visual effects, but I do not see that happening this year.
September Forecast
The only film that looks to be an Oscar possibility for the month’s releases is Dumb Money about the Game Stop rise and fall in the stock market. It probably has an adapted screenplay nomination, though I am dubious of any others. Outside possibilities are for picture, Paul Dano, and Jennifer Lawrence, but I do not see any of those occurring.
