Our final predictions before the precursors begin to flood in at the beginning of December, we’ll take a look back in a month to see how close we were. Until then, have a look at our newest predictions with numerous changes setting us up for the awards season that will likely precede Thanksgiving this year (it falls far too late in the month for the typical early-adopters to release after). Please note that predictions for Original Song, International Feature, and Documentary Feature were not required. Pete chose to make some in the interim. We are waiting until the shortlists appear in December before requiring forecasts there.

KEY:

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: Several more films have been dumped from my list, especially those titles which didn’t fare well in limited or wide release or which never built the buzz beyond initial “perhaps” commentary. Train Dreams gets added to my list in several places thanks to its surprising resurgence in recent weeks. It debuted at Sundance but didn’t gain any traction. The few reviews I’ve seen of it recently suggest it could be a strong contender. I don’t know yet if it gets nominated but enough prominent features have failed in recent months that it is edging towards more than just a passing fancy. Things are still in flux but are starting to solidify in certain quarters.
Pete Patrick: This month’s predictions will be the last heavy guessing for the year. By this time next month, we will have already seen some actual nominations and awards on which to base our final predictions. My biggest break with most pundits is my move of Paul Mescal back to Best Actor where he belongs. Best actress beyond Jessie Buckley, Cynthia Erico, and Renate Reinsve is a crap shoot which will probably stay that way for a while. The same is true of Supporting Actor beyond Sean Penn and Stellan Skarsgård with Mescal out of the picture. There are so many contenders for Supporting Actress that no one beyond Ariana Grande is safe at this point, though that doesn’t mean that she will necessarily win. Next month could look completely different in all the acting categories.
Thomas LaTourette: It is funny how even this late in the season, movies like Train Dreams and performances like Ethan Hawke’s in Blue Moon are suddenly being talked about. I do not have Train Dreams or star Joel Edgerton on my list this month but could imagine them moving on before too long. I slotted Train Dreams in for screenplay and cinematography. I replaced Jeremy Allen White with Ethan Hawke as Blue Moon is hot, and the Springsteen biopic seems to be fading from consciousness. Hamnet, One Battle After Another, and Sinners appear to be the major players for best picture. I was not overwhelmed with One Battle so I will be eagerly awaiting Hamnet. If Chloé Zhao had not recently won for Nomadland, Hamnet would probably be a clear front runner. People look at Paul Thomas Anderson’s 0 for 11 Oscar wins and say he is due, but I do not think this is the film he should win for. It is rather like Martin Scorsese winning for The Departed. So it is turning into an interesting race all around. Will see what the next couple months bring for changes in the lists.

Best Picture

WLPPTL Avatar: Fire and Ash
WLPPTL Bugonia
WLPPTL Frankenstein
WLPPTL Hamnet
WLPPTL It Was Just an Accident
WLPPTL Kiss of the Spider Woman
WLPPTL Marty Supreme
WLPPTL One Battle After Another
WLPPTL The Secret Agent
WLPPTL Sentimental Value
WLPPTL Sinners
WLPPTL The Voice of Hind Rajab
WLPPTL Wicked: For Good

Best Animated Feature

WLPPTL Arco
WLPPTL Dog Man
WLPPTL Elio
WLPPTL KPop Demon Hunters
WLPPTL Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
WLPPTL A Magnificent Life
WLPPTL Scarlet
WLPPTL The Twits
WLPPTL Zootopia 2

Best Directing

WLPPTL Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
WLPPTL Chu – Wicked: For Good
WLPPTL Ryan Coogler – Sinners
WLPPTL Guillermo del Toro – Frankenstein
WLPPTL Jafar Panahi – It Was Just an Accident
WLPPTL Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value
WLPPTL Chloë Zhao – Hamnet

Best Actor

WLPPTL Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme
WLPPTL Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
WLPPTL Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon
WLPPTL Michael B. Jordan – Sinners
WLPPTL Paul Mescal – Hamnet
WLPPTL Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent
WLPPTL Jeremy Allen White – Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Actress

WLPPTL Cate Blanchett – Father Mother Sister Brother
WLPPTL Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
WLPPTL Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
WLPPTL Cynthia Erivo – Wicked: For Good
WLPPTL Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue
WLPPTL Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value
WLPPTL Amanda Seyfried – The Testament of Ann Lee
WLPPTL Emma Stone – Bugonia

Best Supporting Actor

WLPPTL Joe Alwyn – Hamnet
WLPPTL Jonathan Bailey – Wicked: For Good
WLPPTL Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another
WLPPTL Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein
WLPPTL William H. Macy – Train Dreams
WLPPTL Paul Mescal – Hamnet
WLPPTL Josh O’Connor – Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
WLPPTL Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
WLPPTL Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value
WLPPTL Jeremy Strong – Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Supporting Actress

WLPPTL Glenn Close – Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
WLPPTL Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value
WLPPTL Ariana Grande – Wicked: For Good
WLPPTL Regina Hall – One Battle After Another
WLPPTL Inga Ibsdotter Lilleas – Sentimental Value
WLPPTL Amy Madigan – Weapons
WLPPTL Charlotte Rampling – Father Mother Sister Brother
WLPPTL Tilda Swinton – Ballad of a Small Player
WLPPTL Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another

Best Original Screenplay

WLPPTL It Was Just an Accident
WLPPTL Jay Kelly
WLPPTL Marty Supreme
WLPPTL One Battle After Another
WLPPTL Sentimental Value
WLPPTL Sinners
WLPPTL The Voice of Hind Rajab

Best Adapted Screenplay

WLPPTL Bugonia
WLPPTL Frankenstein
WLPPTL Hamnet
WLPPTL One Battle After Another
WLPPTL Train Dreams
WLPPTL Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
WLPPTL Wicked: For Good

Best Casting

WLPPTL Father Mother Sister Brother
WLPPTL Frankenstein
WLPPTL Hamnet
WLPPTL Marty Supreme
WLPPTL One Battle After Another
WLPPTL Sentimental Value
WLPPTL Sinners
WLPPTL Wicked: For Good

Best Original Song

WLPPTL The Girl in the Bubble – Wicked: For Good
WLPPTL Golden – KPop Demon Hunters
WLPPTL I Lied to You – Sinners
WLPPTL ( Last Time) I Seen the Sun – Sinners
WLPPTL No Place Like Home – Wicked: For Good

Best Original Score

WLPPTL After the Hunt
WLPPTL Frankenstein
WLPPTL Hamnet
WLPPTL Jay Kelly
WLPPTL Marty Supreme
WLPPTL One Battle After Another
WLPPTL Sinners

Best Film Editing

WLPPTL F1
WLPPTL Frankenstein
WLPPTL Hamnet
WLPPTL Marty Supreme
WLPPTL One Battle After Another
WLPPTL Sentimental Value
WLPPTL Sinners

Best Cinematography

WLPPTL Frankenstein
WLPPTL Hamnet
WLPPTL Nouvelle Vague
WLPPTL One Battle After Another
WLPPTL Sinners
WLPPTL Train Dreams
WLPPTL Wicked: For Good

Best Production Design

WLPPTL Avatar: Fire & Ash
WLPPTL The Fantastic Four: First Steps
WLPPTL Frankenstein
WLPPTL Hamnet
WLPPTL Kiss of the Spider Woman
WLPPTL Marty Supreme
WLPPTL Sinners
WLPPTL Wicked: For Good

Best Costume Design

WLPPTL Frankenstein
WLPPTL Hamnet
WLPPTL Marty Supreme
WLPPTL Sinners
WLPPTL The Testament of Ann Lee
WLPPTL Wicked: For Good

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

WLPPTL 28 Days Later
WLPPTL Bugonia
WLPPTL Frankenstein
WLPPTL The Phoenician Scheme
WLPPTL Sinners
WLPPTL The Smashing Machien
WLPPTL Wicked: For Good

Best Sound

WLPPTL Avatar: Fire and Ash
WLPPTL F1
WLPPTL Frankenstein
WLPPTL Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
WLPPTL One Battle After Another
WLPPTL Sinners
WLPPTL Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
WLPPTL Wicked: For Good

Best Visual Effects

WLPPTL Avatar: Fire and Ash
WLPPTL F1
WLPPTL The Fantastic Four: First Steps
WLPPTL Frankenstein
WLPPTL Superman
WLPPTL Tron: Ares
WLPPTL Wicked: For Good

Best International Feature

WLPPTL It Was Just an Accident
WLPPTL No Other Choice
WLPPTL The Secret Agent
WLPPTL Sentimental Value
WLPPTL The Voice of Hind Rajab

Best Documentary Feature

WLPPTL The Alabama Solution
WLPPTL Apocalypse in the Tropics
WLPPTL Mr. Nobody and Putin
WLPPTL The Perfect Neighbor
WLPPTL Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk