We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of November and see what films succeeded and faltered. Then we’ll look forward to January and see what has some potential.

Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts

November Retrospective
Quite a few titles released in November with Oscar potential and so far, a handful of them have shown themselves to be consistent competitors, while others have not.

Let’s start with the titles that managed to find no traction. The Running Man lost the race pretty quickly when the critics largely panned the film. Even the effects haven’t proven to be much of a contender. Eternity seems to have done well with critics but has been nonexistent on the precursor circuit so far. Likewise, Nuremberg did surprisingly well with critics considering how milquetoast it looked but doing well and winning support for the precursors is another thing altogether. Christy was not well received outside of star Sydney Sweeney’s central performance. However, what was thought to be one of the year’s leading female acting contenders has turned out to be a lot of hot air.

The next four titles are doing decently with the precursors but not to the level we were expecting. Wicked: For Good is the most clearly disappointing. The reviews weren’t great and while Ariana Grande has shown up consistently, the film (in Best Picture) and Cynthia Erivo have missed some very important nominations. Rental Family only really had a shot for a follow-up nomination for star Brendan Fraser and he’s been cited a few times but not to the degree that would make him a formiddible competitor.

Jay Kelly has picked up some steam in the last few months, scoring several nominations for Adam Sandler and a few other elements; however, it seems to be one of those titles that feels like an also-ran, a competitor that won’t score much and might be forgotten altogether. Fairing better than Sweeney, Jennifer Lawrence has been picking up a handful of nominations for Die My Love although the frequency of which is concerning for her continued viability. is in a much better position than any of these prior films is Zootopia 2. The film underperformed its predecessor in terms of critical acclaim and while it’s showing up on nominations lists, it doesn’t seem to be gaining traction towards a win. Then again, it wasn’t a foregone conclusion that the prior film would win until it did.

Lastly are four titles, two non-English language. We’ll start with those titles. The Secret Agent has picked up a number of mentions for itself but also for star Wagner Moura who might well be one of the handful of non-English language performances to be in contention this year, though Sentimental Value is likely to have the most. The film has done very well, scoring nominations both in International Feature and Picture categories along with consistent nominations for stars Renate Reinsve, Stellan Skarsgård, Elle Fanning, and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleeas. This looks like it will be the best performing international film in the competition.

As expected, Hamnet followed up its Toronto People’s Choice Awards with numerous precursor nominations and is poised to earn nearly double-digit nominations, though it won’t be the most nominated. The stumbling block is the lack of acting potential. So far, only Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal have been cited and that’s probably the extent of it. The big surprise, to an extent, is Train Dreams. Premiering way back at Sundance, it seemed to have stalled through most of the summer but has roared to life during precursor season and looks to be sailing towards numerous nominations.

Those are the titles I highlighted two months ago but there were a few more titles I didn’t mention that released last month that have shown up a handful of times in the precursor derbies so far, so let’s take a look at those in ascending Oscar potential order.

The three titles I’m not particularly certain we’ll see much of are The Tale of Silyan, Peter Hujar’s Day, and Belén. These titles have all received some precursor love. Unfortunately for them, they aren’t by groups that would be looked to for foreshadowing ability.

Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery is the third in a series of films that has so far secured two writing nominations. Will that persist this year? It doesn’t seem that likely. The film hasn’t been showing up in expected places and although it’s been seen, that visibility is minimal. The WGA could bolster its chances still but we’ll have to wait and see.

Among the remaining two, Arco is the only one that seems poised for a single nomination. That’s because it’s not likely to compete outside of Animated Feature. However, it does seem likely at this point to be one of the five nominees there. Sirat, on the other hand, might just make a showing in multiple categories. Original Score and International Feature for Spain seem good possibilities but Sound could have an outside chance as well as a handful of other places if Oscar voters really take to it.

And with that, we’ve got one last month to look back at and then we’ll be in the full swing of Oscar season for the 98th and a dearth of content for the 99th.

January Forecast
Unfortunately, January is where Oscar contenders get their platform releases increased but no new releases make a dint in the next year’s race. And looking at what’s on deck for new films, there’s just nothing with Oscar potential.

Pete Patrick’s Thoughts

November Retrospective
As expected, November saw the release of a number of films that figure in both box-office might and Oscar potential.

Most successful at the box office were Wicked: For Good and Zootopia 2, which will enhance their Oscar chances.

There’s no reason to not expect Wicked: For Good to do as well as last year’s Wicked at the Oscars. It should show up in nominations for Best Picture, Actress for Cynthia Erivo, Supporting Actress for Ariana Grande, receive nominations for two new songs and mentions in various technical categories. The sequel to the Oscar winning Zootopia should at least be nominated for Best Animated Feature.

Both Frankenstein and Train Dreams benefitted from their Netflix streaming debuts after their short theatrical runs and Jay Kelly should as well in the coming weeks. All three are showing up in early awards voting.

Sentimental Value and Hamnet did not fare as well in early awards voting as anticipated but that should change as the season wears on.

Rental Family, which opened to mixed reviews, even made the National Board of Review’s list of the year’s ten best films which could help the film’s shaky Oscar chances.

January Forecast
It’s been a long time since a film of note has opened in January.  The films that are successful at the box office are generally holdovers from December and before.  The month mostly serves as a dumping ground for films that the studios know have no awards potential in the hopes that they will at least make a little money to earn back their costs.  This January looks no different.  

Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts

November Retrospective
November did not disappoint. Some films like Nuremburg, Die My Love, and Christy came and went quickly and look unlikely to score any nominations, but a number of big films did open that will do well with the nominations.

Sentimental Value should be a major player with nominations for picture, director, actress, supporting actor, and maybe two for supporting actress. It has been riding high for months and should pull off a number of noms.

There is a possibility that Train Dreams could pull off nominations for picture, Joel Edgerton for best actor, cinematography, and adapted screenplay. Edgerton is in the weakest spot of the group, but he might get there.

Jay Kelly had been primed to get George Clooney another nomination, but he has fallen way down the list. It does look likely that Adam Sandler may finally get a nom for supporting actor. And it will probably get one for original screenplay too. It might pull off one for picture as well, but those hopes are fading.

Wicked: For Good should probably score many nominations, picture, actress, and supporting actress as well as some tech ones as well, unless there is a feeling that it was honored enough last year.

Zootopia 2 should be guaranteed a nom for animated feature, the original having won in this category.

The Secret Agent could be up for International Film as well as picking up a nom for Walter Moura as best actor who has gotten rave reviews.

Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery might pick up a nomination for adapted screenplay.

Hamnet should also be a major player with the Chloé Zhao film being up for picture, director, screenplay, actress, and supporting actor. Perhaps it will pick up a few tech ones as well. It is a picture that people are looking forward to.

January Forecast
I do not see anything opening next month that looks likely to score a nomination.