With the shortlists revealed and many critics groups announced, this will be our most accurate list yet but we’ve still got at least a month before the finals.

KEY:

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: With many of the major critics groups announcing winners and/or nominees, things are speeding along. The guilds are going to start churning out as well, so next month’s update might well be the finale. And with the shortlists, I have predictions in several categories that I had left alone before the lists were available.
Pete Patrick: The early critics have spoken. The Critics Choice and Golden Globes nominations have been announced. What will AMPAS do? It won’t be long now before we find out.
Thomas LaTourette: With our penultimate predictions, some things feel pretty set, though a couple of snubs to Wicked: For Good make one wonder if it is solidly in the mix. It did well with the shortlists, so perhaps it will do well after all. Sinners did well there too. As did, surprisingly, the Spanish film Sirât, which makes it seem a contender for International Film. One Battle After Another seems poised to win best picture as it continues its roll through critics prizes. It is not my favorite of Paul Thomas Anderson’s movies, but it has become an impressive front runner. KPop Demon Hunters and its song Golden seem likely to win for animated feature and original song. Jessie Buckley also is primed to win best actress. Sinners probably has original screenplay and score down. Frankenstein should do well in the tech categories, probably besting Wicked: For Good in many races. Avatar: Fire and Ash will probably take visual effects. But a lot of the races are still up for grabs. It will be interesting to see how things shake out over the next few weeks.

Best Picture

WLPPTL Avatar: Fire and Ash
WLPPTL Frankenstein
WLPPTL Hamnet
WLPPTL It Was Just an Accident
WLPPTL Marty Supreme
WLPPTL One Battle After Another
WLPPTL The Secret Agent
WLPPTL Sentimental Value
WLPPTL Sinners
WLPPTL Train Dreams
WLPPTL Wicked: For Good

Best Animated Feature

WLPPTL Arco
WLPPTL Elio
WLPPTL KPop Demon Hunters
WLPPTL Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
WLPPTL A Magnificent Life
WLPPTL Zootopia 2

Best Directing

WLPPTL Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
WLPPTL Ryan Coogler – Sinners
WLPPTL Jafar Panahi – It Was Just an Accident
WLPPTL Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme
WLPPTL Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value
WLPPTL Chloë Zhao – Hamnet

Best Actor

WLPPTL Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme
WLPPTL Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
WLPPTL Joel Edgerton – Train Dreams
WLPPTL Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon
WLPPTL Michael B. Jordan – Sinners
WLPPTL Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent

Best Actress

WLPPTL Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
WLPPTL Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
WLPPTL Cynthia Erivo – Wicked: For Good
WLPPTL Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another
WLPPTL Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value
WLPPTL Amanda Seyfried – The Testament of Ann Lee
WLPPTL Emma Stone – Bugonia

Best Supporting Actor

WLPPTL Benicio Del Toro – One Battle After Another
WLPPTL Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein
WLPPTL Paul Mescal – Hamnet
WLPPTL Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
WLPPTL Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value

Best Supporting Actress

WLPPTL Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value
WLPPTL Ariana Grande – Wicked: For Good
WLPPTL Inga Ibsdotter Lilleas – Sentimental Value
WLPPTL Amy Madigan – Weapons
WLPPTL Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners
WLPPTL Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another

Best Original Screenplay

WLPPTL It Was Just an Accident
WLPPTL Jay Kelly
WLPPTL Marty Supreme
WLPPTL Sentimental Value
WLPPTL Sinners
WLPPTL Weapons

Best Adapted Screenplay

WLPPTL Bugonia
WLPPTL Frankenstein
WLPPTL Hamnet
WLPPTL One Battle After Another
WLPPTL Train Dreams
WLPPTL Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Casting

WLPPTL Frankenstein
WLPPTL Hamnet
WLPPTL Marty Supreme
WLPPTL One Battle After Another
WLPPTL Sentimental Value
WLPPTL Sinners
WLPPTL Wicked: For Good

Best Original Song

WLPPTL Dear Me – Diane Warren: Relentless
WLPPTL The Girl in the Bubble – Wicked: For Good
WLPPTL Golden – KPop Demon Hunters
WLPPTL I Lied to You – Sinners
WLPPTL No Place Like Home – Wicked: For Good
WLPPTL Train Dreams – Train Dreams

Best Original Score

WLPPTL Frankenstein
WLPPTL Hamnet
WLPPTL Jay Kelly
WLPPTL Marty Supreme
WLPPTL One Battle After Another
WLPPTL Sinners
WLPPTL Train Dreams

Best Film Editing

WLPPTL F1
WLPPTL Hamnet
WLPPTL Marty Supreme
WLPPTL One Battle After Another
WLPPTL Sentimental Value
WLPPTL Sinners

Best Cinematography

WLPPTL Frankenstein
WLPPTL Hamnet
WLPPTL One Battle After Another
WLPPTL Sinners
WLPPTL Train Dreams

Best Production Design

WLPPTL Avatar: Fire & Ash
WLPPTL The Fantastic Four: First Steps
WLPPTL Frankenstein
WLPPTL Hamnet
WLPPTL Marty Supreme
WLPPTL Sinners
WLPPTL Wicked: For Good

Best Costume Design

WLPPTL Frankenstein
WLPPTL Hamnet
WLPPTL Marty Supreme
WLPPTL Sinners
WLPPTL The Testament of Ann Lee
WLPPTL Wicked: For Good

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

WLPPTL Frankenstein
WLPPTL Kokuho
WLPPTL Nuremberg
WLPPTL One Battle After Another
WLPPTL Sinners
WLPPTL The Smashing Machine
WLPPTL The Ugly Stepsister
WLPPTL Wicked: For Good

Best Sound

WLPPTL Avatar: Fire and Ash
WLPPTL F1
WLPPTL Frankenstein
WLPPTL Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
WLPPTL One Battle After Another
WLPPTL Sinners
WLPPTL Wicked: For Good

Best Visual Effects

WLPPTL Avatar: Fire and Ash
WLPPTL F1
WLPPTL Frankenstein
WLPPTL Superman
WLPPTL Tron: Ares
WLPPTL Wicked: For Good

Best International Feature

WLPPTL It Was Just an Accident
WLPPTL No Other Choice
WLPPTL The Secret Agent
WLPPTL Sentimental Value
WLPPTL Sirât
WLPPTL The Voice of Hind Rajab

Best Documentary Feature

WLPPTL 2000 Meters to Andriivka
WLPPTL The Alabama Solution
WLPPTL Apocalypse in the Tropics
WLPPTL Come See Me in the Good Light
WLPPTL Cover-Up
WLPPTL Mr. Nobody and Putin
WLPPTL My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
WLPPTL The Perfect Neighbor
WLPPTL Yunani

Best Documentary Short Subject

WLPPTL All the Empty Rooms
WLPPTL All the Walls Came Down
WLPPTL Armed with Only a Camera
WLPPTL Bad Hostage
WLPPTL Cashing Out
WLPPTL Children No More: Were and Are Gone
WLPPTL The Devil Is Busy
WLPPTL Last Days on Lake Trinity
WLPPTL Rovina’s Choice
WLPPTL We Were the Scenery

Best Animated Short Film

WLPPTL Autokar
WLPPTL Butterfly
WLPPTL Éiru
WLPPTL The Girl Who Cried Pearls
WLPPTL I Died in Irpin
WLPPTL The Night Boots
WLPPTL The Quinta’s Ghost
WLPPTL Retirement Plan
WLPPTL The Shyness of Trees
WLPPTL Snow Bear
WLPPTL The Three Sisters

Best Live Action Short Film

WLPPTL Ado
WLPPTL Beyond Silence
WLPPTL Boy with White Skin
WLPPTL Butcher’s Stain
WLPPTL Butterfly on a Wheel
WLPPTL Dad’s Not Home
WLPPTL A Friend of Dorothy
WLPPTL Jane Austen’s Period Drama
WLPPTL The Pearl Comb
WLPPTL Rock, Paper, Scissors
WLPPTL The Singers
WLPPTL Two People Exchanging Saliva