We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of December and see what films succeeded and faltered. Then we’ll look forward to February and see what has some potential.
Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts
December Retrospective
Back in November, I looked at 9 films that I thought could have Oscar potential. One was an utter dud while six have managed to belly flop with precursors. Of the remaining two, one proved to be more successful than imagined while the last was a huge success and is a top tier contender.
Let’s start with the dud. Ella McCay was James L. Brooks’s return to directing and was a big disappointment. It’s dismal critic scores sealed its fate and it’s best if we never bring it up again.
The six that were largely flops were failures for differing reasons.
Two were box office successes but didn’t earn the level of critical acclaim that would put them into major awards contention. Avatar: Fire and Ash was a big box office performer but the reviews were mediocre at best. Apart from the acclaim the film received for its production design, sound, and visual effects, the film will be isolated to those categories and even production design is a longshot at this point. The other is The Housemaid, which turned out to be a surprise hit. It got decent reviews but was almost nowhere to be seen during the precursors. It seemed to fail to parlay that success into awards and that will likely be the same at the Oscars.
One secured terrific reviews and acclaim for its central performance. Rosemead was thought by some to be Lucy Liu’s chance to earn an Oscar nomination but the release strategy of its distributor buried it in December when an early-year release would have positioned it to build a bit of buzz as the only contender for a few months. Ultimately, the film’s been non-existent on the precursor circuit and Oscar is unlikely to follow as Liu is not going to get an Andrea Riseborough-level of groundswell.
The remaining two were animated films. Scarlet was another film from a prior Oscar nominee and it had middling reviews but with so many anime or anime-inspired films in competition, it never managed to stand out and with its too-late release, most critics had already settled on their choices for the best of the year. The other still might have some chance. A Magnificent Life is from a director who has picked up a surprise nomination before and it’s possible he could do so again. Not enough reviews have been released on the film and its failure to get out to critics groups successfully have left the film in limbo. Academy voters in the animation branch are much more attentive to all of the film’s releasing, so it has some potential but I can’t imagine it can overcome a lack of precursor attention.
Lastly, there’s Is This Thing On?. It received strong reviews as most of Bradley Cooper’s directorial efforts have but it seems to have been ignored by most critics groups in favor of more high profile entries. Perhaps the late release hurt its chances but at this point, it would be a surprise to see it with any Oscar nominations.
Now to the two films that had some success with the precursors. The Testament of Ann Lee was a hit with critics, performing better than a lot of the current top tier contenders. Still, something about the film hasn’t turned it into a leading Oscar contender. Sure, Amanda Seyfried has gotten a bit of attention but so far the precursors haven’t lavished attention on the film and although it could get a few nominations, they may not be numerous.
Then we have the biggest success of the month: Marty Supreme. Superb reviews and widespread precursor support declares this as a surefire nominee in multiple categories with a few like Odessa A’zion moving into a stronger position than expected. While it’s not likely to claim too many prizes, star Timothée Chalamet may finally reach the podium for a performance many claim is one of his best, which is a tough claim to land on considering the terrific work he’s done previously.
And that’s it for looking back at December, let’s move into February.
February Forecast
While January is always a dead zone for Oscar contenders, February isn’t always. Sometimes a surprise find can make it all the way to the Oscars. There are three films with potential this year.
Luc Besson’s Dracula is the umpteenth reimagining of the immortal Bram Stoker novel. Besson’s films aren’t usually top tier contenders but when they have sumptuous designs like this one is sure to, it certainly has a shot. Can it keep the interest alive until almost a year later? Probably not but it could be one of the early contenders.
The early year is always a prime release window for animated films. With little competition, they tend to do far better than they might in the middle of the summer. This year, there’s GOAT, a basketball movie with anthropomorphic animals. It’s sure to be a big hit with audiences but as Dog Man proved earlier this year, you can be well regarded as an animated film for kids but that doesn’t mean you’ll still be respected come year-end.
Lastly is a real threat for nominations. Wuthering Heights is the latest adaptation of the classic romance novel. Emerald Fennell’s directorial follow-up to Saltburn will put her on a collision course with Oscar…if the film is any good. Saltburn did well with critics and got a smattering of precursor attention but ended up falling short. The same could happen to this film and you have to wonder why a picture like this is releasing in the dead of February. That doesn’t give much hope. That said, Jacob Elordi and Margot Robbie will steam up the screen and it may well be a box office hit but we’ll have to see how critics feel before giving it too much attention.
And with those three out of the way, let’s hear why my compatriots think.
Pete Patrick’s Thoughts
December Retrospective
Avatar: Fire and Ash was the big box-office winner from December, while Marty Supreme did quite well in limited release, expanding now that the film’s star, Timothée Chalamet advances toward potential Oscar glory.
The Housemaid continued to hang on at the box-office longer than was anticipated while star Amanda Seyfried, Oscar contender The Testament of Ann Lee, did not fare well. Is This Thing On? and Song Sung Blue also did respectable business.
February Forecast
Scream 7 releases early in the month hopefully to satisfy horror fans while Dracula: A Love Tale supplies a different approach to the horror classic later in the month.
An animated Cat in the Hat will be released as will yet another version of Wuthering Heights. This one has star power with Oscar hopeful Jacob Elordi as Heathcliffe and Margot Robbie as Cathy with Emmy, Critics Choice and Golden Globe winner Owen Cooper with Hamnet himself, Jacobi Jupe playing Elordi’s character as a boy.
Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts
December Retrospective
A couple of the films fizzled and will end up with nothing, but Marty Supreme is set to do better than expected when nominations come out later this month. Avatar: Fire and Ash is the only other December release that is guaranteed any Oscar nominations, but a couple others could slide in for one or two.
Avatar: Fire and Ash should do well in the tech categories, especially visual effects, sound and production design. There is an outside chance that it could pull off a picture nomination too.
I originally thought Marty Supreme would pick up nominations for picture, actor and original screenplay. Director, supporting actress, casting, editing and score are now also possibilities which will make it one of the more nominated films of the year.
Song Sung Blue has been flying under the radar but there is a slight possibility that Kate Hudson could pull off a best actress nom. Getting an Actor award nomination helps her chances of repeating at the Oscars.
The Testament of Ann Lee has excellent reviews and could pull off a nomination for Amanda Seyfried for best actress, but that is getting less and less likely. It might get one for costume design as well.
Scarlet is on the bubble about pulling off a nomination for animated feature, and looking less likely as time passes.
February Forecast
February probably has the fewest releases of any month that go on to collect Oscar nominations. Films that were not deemed Oscar worthy for the previous year get dumped in the first months of the next year, and this year appears no exception. I do not see any films that are likely to be up for next year’s Academy Awards.
