Tomorrow’s the big day. After months of predictions and critics awards, it’s time to see how much the Academy agrees with the critics and prognosticators. We agreed fully on only two categories: Animated Feature and Actor. Beyond that, we are largely in agreement with several small discrepancies in each category, so predictable? Maybe.

KEY:

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: My commentary for each category will appear in a separate post you can view here.
Pete Patrick: For the first time in years, most awards bodies agree on the main contenders in the major categories making forecasting easier if a bit duller as well. I have comments on all categories except the shorts.
Thomas LaTourette: With the nominations coming out Thursday, I am sending out my final predictions. There is talk that Sinners and perhaps One Battle After Another will break the record of most nominations which has stood at 14 since 1950. I really have no idea if that will happen, but it adds an extra layer of interest to the coming announcements. For either to get there they will need multiple nominations in certain categories like song for Sinners or supporting actor for OBAA. One Battle will probably tie for most acting nominations ever with five. Sinners may just get two though I would like to see it get more as those characters have stayed more in my mind than any other film this year. Frankenstein and Hamnet may also make it to double digit nominations with Marty Supreme and Sentimental Value not too far behind. Sequels like Wicked: For Good and Avatar: Fire and Ash do not look to come close to repeating the nomination hauls that the originals did. These are my best predictions but doubt I will be that close as the Academy always has some surprises.

Best Picture

WLPPTL Bugonia
WLPPTL Frankenstein
WLPPTL Hamnet
WLPPTL It Was Just an Accident
WLPPTL Marty Supreme
WLPPTL One Battle After Another
WLPPTL The Secret Agent
WLPPTL Sentimental Value
WLPPTL Sinners
WLPPTL Train Dreams
WLPPTL Weapons

Pete Patrick: Mine is a very safe list with Weapons my only real guess over Wicked: For Good, Wake Up Dead Man, and Bugonia its only real competition.
Thomas LaTourette: I ended up changing two titles from last month, dropping both Avatar: Fire and Ice and Wicked: For Good off the list. Bugonia is back on, though I am surprised at the love it is getting as I found it an odd film. The Secret Agent could make it on, especially following its Golden Globes win for best actor. That could make three foreign language films nominated, which would be the most ever. The film that seems most likely to supplant it would be F1 which the Producers Guild nominated. Of course, it really is just a race between One Battle After Another and Sinners, with maybe Hamnet in as a dark horse.

Best Animated Feature

WLPPTL Arco
WLPPTL Elio
WLPPTL KPop Demon Hunters
WLPPTL Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
WLPPTL Zootopia 2

Pete Patrick: A rather dull list for me but there isn’t much else to choose from.
Thomas LaTourette: I had no movement in this category so feel these are the likely nominees.

Best Directing

WLPPTL Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
WLPPTL Ryan Coogler – Sinners
WLPPTL Guillermo del Toro – Frankenstein
WLPPTL Jafar Panahi – It Was Just an Accident
WLPPTL Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme
WLPPTL Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value
WLPPTL Chloë Zhao – Hamnet

Pete Patrick: I see the DGA nominees except for Safdie repeating here with Joaquim Trier replacing him.
Thomas LaTourette: Only three of these feel set, Anderson, Zhao and Coogler. The last two positions I am not sure of. Marty Supreme’s Josh Safdie and Frankenstein’s Guillermo del Toro could easily fill out the roster. However, a director of a foreign language film has been nominated in the last few years, so both Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value and Jafar Panahi for It Was Just an Accident could easily knock one of them out, or both could sneak in. The Directors guild went with an all American roster but I do not think the Academy will follow suit. Unless Trier and Panahi split the foreign vote. It is really hard to predict how this will go. I will stick with last month’s predictions of two foreign directors slipping in but will not be surprised if neither makes the cut.

Best Actor

WLPPTL Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme
WLPPTL Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
WLPPTL Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon
WLPPTL Michael B. Jordan – Sinners
WLPPTL Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent

Pete Patrick: Chalamet and DiCaprio are certain nominees with Hawke, Jordan, Moura and Joel Edgerton vying for the other three slots. I think Edgerton is the one they will ultimately leave out.
Thomas LaTourette: This is a second category where I had no movement from last month. Ethan Hawke, Walter Moura and Michael B. Jordan all seem fairly set to be nominated but love for Bugonia could conceivably drop one of them out for Jesse Plemons or less likely Joel Edgerton’s quiet performance in Train Dreams. As much as people predict that Sinners could break the record for most Oscar nominations, I could also imagine a backlash where it does not do as well as predicted which could leave Jordan slightly at risk. It will be interesting to see how this one plays out. Ethan Hawke and Walter Moura do seem to be peaking at the right time to pick up nominations.

Best Actress

WLPPTL Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
WLPPTL Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
WLPPTL Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue
WLPPTL Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another
WLPPTL Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value
WLPPTL Emma Stone – Bugonia

Pete Patrick: Buckley and Byrne are virtual certainties with Infiniti and Reinsve seemingly pretty safe. The last slot is between two-time winner Emma Stone, Cynthia Erivo and Kate Hudson, among which Hudson is my guess as to the one who will prevail.
Thomas LaTourette: I have finally dropped Cynthia Erivo off my list and put Emma Stone back on it. However, the question of whether Chase Infiniti or Kate Hudson gets the final spot is a difficult one to make. Does the Academy go with the newcomer or reward the one who has been around for 25 years. Cases could be made both ways, and I do not know which will prevail. I will go with Infiniti as the Academy does like ingenues, but Hudson does have powerful allies in Hollywood.

Best Supporting Actor

WLPPTL Miles Caton – Sinners
WLPPTL Benicio Del Toro – One Battle After Another
WLPPTL Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein
WLPPTL Paul Mescal – Hamnet
WLPPTL Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
WLPPTL Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value

Pete Patrick: I see no reason why anyone would upset any of the five frontrunners.
Thomas LaTourette: I am sticking with last month’s predictions but wonder about Jay Kelly’s Adam Sandler or Sinners’ Delroy Lindo or Miles Caton sneaking into the final five. Or conceivably both if Sinners does as well as predicted. But it is difficult to imagine any of these actors being bumped off the list. Skarsgard was left off the Actors awards list, but the Academy is not likely to go with all English-speaking roles like SAG did. Even with his high profile win from the Critics Choice, Elordi would have to be viewed as the most vulnerable, but I think he will still be named on Thursday.

Best Supporting Actress

WLPPTL Odessa A’zion – Marty Supreme
WLPPTL Ariana Grande – Wicked: For Good
WLPPTL Inga Ibsdotter Lilleas – Sentimental Value
WLPPTL Amy Madigan – Weapons
WLPPTL Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners
WLPPTL Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another

Pete Patrick: Elle Fanning remains a strong contender who could upset one of the five, probably Ariana Grande.
Thomas LaTourette: I replaced Sentimental Values’ Elle Fanning with Wunmi Mosaku from Sinners. Either Ariana Grande or Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas might be dropped for Fanning or Odessa A’zion if either of those pictures overperforms. I would hate to see Grande knocked out as she really gave Wicked: For Good its heart. It is a category that could go various ways.

Best Original Screenplay

WLPPTL It Was Just an Accident
WLPPTL Marty Supreme
WLPPTL The Secret Agent
WLPPTL Sentimental Value
WLPPTL Sinners
WLPPTL Weapons

Pete Patrick: A solid lineup that should be able to withstand other possibilities.
Thomas LaTourette: The Secret Agent is probably in the weakest position here and could be edged out by Blue Moon, Sorry, Baby or Weapons, with Sorry, Baby having the best chance to cop a nomination.

Best Adapted Screenplay

WLPPTL Bugonia
WLPPTL Frankenstein
WLPPTL Hamnet
WLPPTL One Battle After Another
WLPPTL Train Dreams
WLPPTL Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Pete Patrick: This is a volatile group of nominees considering its vast competition.
Thomas LaTourette: I am staying with last month’s predictions and feel these are the most likely nominees. Looking at the other nominees, I am not sure what might replace one of them.

Best Casting

WLPPTL Frankenstein
WLPPTL Hamnet
WLPPTL Marty Supreme
WLPPTL One Battle After Another
WLPPTL Sentimental Value
WLPPTL Sinners
WLPPTL Wicked: For Good

Pete Patrick: This new category could pull some surprises but I’m confident that those I think will make it, will do so.
Thomas LaTourette: Hamnet, Marty Supreme, OBAA and Sinners all seem pretty set, though since this is a new category, who knows? We have no precedents so it will be interesting. I am keeping Wicked: For Good in the final spot, though that movie will not be getting nearly as many nominations as the first one did. The casting feels so good in it that it is difficult to imagine other actors in the roles, even though they are repeating last year’s parts. If the Academy goes for totally new films, then Sentimental Value or Frankenstein stand the best chance of knocking out Wicked.

Best Original Song

WLPPTL Dear Me – Diane Warren: Relentless
WLPPTL The Girl in the Bubble – Wicked: For Good
WLPPTL Golden – KPop Demon Hunters
WLPPTL I Lied to You – Sinners
WLPPTL Last Time (I Seen the Sun) – Sinners
WLPPTL No Place Like Home – Wicked: For Good
WLPPTL Train Dreams – Train Dreams

Pete Patrick: I deliberately left out perennial nominee Diane Warren for her latest composition which could be a mistake. Every other time I deliberately ignored her, she showed up anyway.
Thomas LaTourette: The first four songs are the most likely nominees, as one can never rule out Diane Warren. After that it is murky. Last Time seems the strongest candidate, especially if Sinners get the 14 or 15 possible nominations that people are predicting. But Salt then Sour then Sweet or Train Dreams might take the fifth spot instead.

Best Original Score

WLPPTL Frankenstein
WLPPTL Hamnet
WLPPTL Marty Supreme
WLPPTL One Battle After Another
WLPPTL Sinners
WLPPTL Train Dreams

Pete Patrick: These are all solid scores.
Thomas LaTourette: I replaced Jay Kelly with Marty Supreme, but the other four seem solid. If the Academy decides to toss in a surprise, then Sirat might make the final list, but that feels unlikely.

Best Film Editing

WLPPTL F1
WLPPTL Hamnet
WLPPTL Marty Supreme
WLPPTL One Battle After Another
WLPPTL Sentimental Value
WLPPTL Sinners

Pete Patrick: Barring any surprises, these should be the nominees.
Thomas LaTourette: I am keeping last month’s predictions intact. Hamnet might be bumped for Frankenstein, but the other four should make the cut.

Best Cinematography

WLPPTL Frankenstein
WLPPTL Hamnet
WLPPTL One Battle After Another
WLPPTL Sinners
WLPPTL Train Dreams

Pete Patrick: This is another solid list of nominees.
Thomas LaTourette: Hamnet was left off the guild’s list of nominees, both US and British, but I think it will prevail here. F1 or Marty Supreme are the most likely to knock it off if the Academy does not nominate it.

Best Production Design

WLPPTL The Fantastic Four: First Steps
WLPPTL Frankenstein
WLPPTL Hamnet
WLPPTL Marty Supreme
WLPPTL Sinners
WLPPTL Wicked: For Good

Pete Patrick: I’m not sure about Wicked: For Good but this seems like as safe as any category for the continuation of last year’s Wicked.
Thomas LaTourette: I dropped Avatar: Fire and Ash off my list in favor of Marty Supreme but would not be surprised if it makes the cut after all. One Battle After Another could sneak in if the Academy goes overboard with nominations for that film.

Best Costume Design

WLPPTL Frankenstein
WLPPTL Hamnet
WLPPTL Hedda
WLPPTL Sinners
WLPPTL The Testament of Ann Lee
WLPPTL Wicked: For Good

Pete Patrick: Solid craftsmanship is the hallmark of these nominees.
Thomas LaTourette: Frankenstein, Hamnet and Sinners feel solid. Wicked: For Good should also make the cut unless members felt that winning last year was enough. The little seen Hedda probably is in the weakest spot and could be replaced by Marty Supreme or The Testament of Ann Lee.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

WLPPTL Frankenstein
WLPPTL Marty Supreme
WLPPTL Nuremberg
WLPPTL One Battle After Another
WLPPTL Sinners
WLPPTL The Smashing Machine
WLPPTL The Ugly Stepsister
WLPPTL Wicked: For Good

Pete Patrick: Don’t know, but these all seem likely.
Thomas LaTourette: Marty Supreme is the one that could be knocked out in favor of One Battle After Another or conceivably Kokuho, but the others should be nominated. This branch can make some surprising nominations so we might be surprised on Thursday morning after all.

Best Sound

WLPPTL Avatar: Fire and Ash
WLPPTL F1
WLPPTL Frankenstein
WLPPTL One Battle After Another
WLPPTL Sinners
WLPPTL Sirât
WLPPTL Wicked: For Good

Pete Patrick: Some obvious contenders here.
Thomas LaTourette: I have kept last month’s predictions but wonder if Wicked will be supplanted by Frankenstein or Sirat.

Best Visual Effects

WLPPTL Avatar: Fire and Ash
WLPPTL F1
WLPPTL Frankenstein
WLPPTL The Lost Bus
WLPPTL Sinners
WLPPTL Superman
WLPPTL Wicked: For Good

Pete Patrick: These mirror the nominees in Sound which somehow doesn’t feel right but we shall see.
Thomas LaTourette: I have also kept this list intact, though Wicked could fall to Sinners if that film hits or breaks the record for most nominations ever.

Best International Feature

WLPPTL It Was Just an Accident
WLPPTL No Other Choice
WLPPTL The Secret Agent
WLPPTL Sentimental Value
WLPPTL Sirât
WLPPTL The Voice of Hind Rajab

Pete Patrick: These are the strongest contenders this year.
Thomas LaTourette: These still seem the most likely nominees, though No Other Choice might sneak in instead. I have only seen one of the nominees so far, so I cannot give my own preferences yet. It does sound like it was a good year for foreign language films. There are often surprises in this category so will not be shocked if it goes a different route in place of a couple of my picks.

Best Documentary Feature

WLPPTL 2000 Meters to Andriivka
WLPPTL The Alabama Solution
WLPPTL Apocalypse in the Tropics
WLPPTL Come See Me in the Good Light
WLPPTL Cover-Up
WLPPTL Mr. Nobody and Putin
WLPPTL My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
WLPPTL The Perfect Neighbor
WLPPTL Yunani

Pete Patrick: This is all guesswork as I haven’t seen any of the nominees.
Thomas LaTourette: There are always surprises in this category, so I am guessing what will be nominated but without any surety. The lengthy My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 – Last Air in Moscow might make the cut. Or perhaps something totally out of left field.

Best Documentary Short Subject

WLPPTL All the Empty Rooms
WLPPTL All the Walls Came Down
WLPPTL Armed with Only a Camera
WLPPTL Cashing Out
WLPPTL Children No More: Were and Are Gone
WLPPTL The Devil Is Busy
WLPPTL Rovina’s Choice
WLPPTL We Were the Scenery

Thomas LaTourette: These are just guesses at this point as so little is known about them yet.

Best Animated Short Film

WLPPTL Autokar
WLPPTL Butterfly
WLPPTL Éiru
WLPPTL The Girl Who Cried Pearls
WLPPTL I Died in Irpin
WLPPTL The Night Boots
WLPPTL The Quinta’s Ghost
WLPPTL Retirement Plan
WLPPTL Snow Bear
WLPPTL The Three Sisters

Thomas LaTourette: Again, these are purely guesses.

Best Live Action Short Film

WLPPTL Ado
WLPPTL Amarela
WLPPTL Beyond Silence
WLPPTL Boy with White Skin
WLPPTL A Friend of Dorothy
WLPPTL Jane Austen’s Period Drama
WLPPTL The Pearl Comb
WLPPTL Rock, Paper, Scissors
WLPPTL The Singers
WLPPTL Two People Exchanging Saliva

Thomas LaTourette: These are also guesses.