The first televised awards show of the year comes a bit too early in the season to have much impact.
CRITICS CHOICE AWARDS
Legend:
Winner Predictions:
Wesley Lovell Pete Patrick Thomas LaTourrette
Runner-Up Predictions:
Wesley Lovell Pete Patrick Thomas LaTourrette
Wesley Lovell: When a group this large votes, they tend to vote to support trends rather than create momentum. They will occasionally come up with an off-the-wall selection (like Jon M. Chu’s Best Director win last year) but ultimately, their selections tend to be more mainstream and that helps them align with the Academy rather than with other critics groups. Many of my predictions will look at the current “frontrunners” and try to adjudicate which they will go for and which they will ignore. (Individual category commentary provided below)
Pete Patrick: The Critics Choice Awards are basically a combination of what the voters think should win and what they think will win Oscars with an emphasis on the latter, so with that in mind this is what I think they will do. (Individual category commentary NOT provided)
Thomas La Tourette: I do not know the trends of the Critics Choice Awards well, but I imagine that they will follow suit with One Battle After Another to win best picture and director. It will be interesting to see who they bestow the acting awards on as those may prove to be interesting races. Also will KPop Demon Hunters become the prohibitive front runner for animated feature? It will be interesting to see how it goes. (Individual category commentary NOT provided)
Best Picture
Bugonia Nil
Frankenstein Nil
Hamnet Nil
Jay Kelly Nil
Marty Supreme Nil
One Battle After Another WL PP TL
Sentimental Value Nil
Sinners WL PP TL
Train Dreams Nil
Wicked: For Good Nil
Wesley Lovell: Most of the evening’s battles will be One Battle After Another versus Sinners with the former winning most of the competitions and the latter picking up a few contests. Best Picture will very likely end up with One Battle coming out on top.
Best Animated Feature
Arco Nil
Elio Nil
In Your Dreams Nil
KPop Demon Hunters WL PP TL
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain WL
Zootopia 2 PP TL
Wesley Lovell: Little Amélie is the kind of film the Academy would pick so it’s in the competition but the undeniable popularity of KPop Demon Hunters will probably mean that film ekes out a win.
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another WL PP TL
Ryan Coogler – Sinners WL PP TL
Guillermo del Toro – Frankenstein Nil
Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme Nil
Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value Nil
Chloé Zhao – Hamnet Nil
Wesley Lovell: Many have been pushing for Paul Thomas Anderson to get an Oscar for directing for years and this looks to finally be the one and I see no reason they won’t amplify that potential.
Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme WL PP TL
Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another PP TL
Joel Edgerton – Train Dreams Nil
Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon Nil
Michael B. Jordan – Sinners WL
Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent Nil
Wesley Lovell: Essentially, there are three potential narratives that could unfold this year. Timothée Chalamet will self-actualize an Oscar, Ethan Hawke will surprise, or Michael B. Jordan will nab a long overdue prize. I don’t see Hawke coming out on top but I do see this group giving it to Chalamet but a surprise for Jordan might be in the cards with so much popularity for Sinners and few other places to recognize him. Plus the optics of an all-white acting slate is not a good one.
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley – Hamnet WL PP TL
Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You WL PP TL
Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another Nil
Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value Nil
Amanda Seyfried – The Testament of Ann Lee Nil
Emma Stone – Bugonia Nil
Wesley Lovell: The season has been dominated by Jessie Buckley and Rose Byrne. While Byrne is the critics’ favorite, Buckley has been circling around a nomination for years and will likely secure one. While a Renate Reinsve or Chase Infiniti win might be a surprise, I expect one fo the “B” actors to win and right now, I’m leaning towards the one in the more popular film with critics: Buckley.
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another WL PP TL
Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein Nil
Paul Mescal – Hamnet Nil
Sean Penn – One Battle After Another Nil
Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly Nil
Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value WL PP TL
Wesley Lovell: Benicio Del Toro has an Oscar already but it was more than twenty years ago and voters might have forgotten. Critics shouldn’t, which gives an opportunity for one of others. This could be a chance for them to push Sandler for a nomination, which he has so far failed to achieve but something tells me elder stateman Stellan Skarsgård might be a surprise winner for a clearly popular film.
Best Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value Nil
Ariana Grande – Wicked: For Good TL
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value Nil
Amy Madigan – Weapons WL PP
Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners PP
Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another WL TL
Wesley Lovell: Although I can’t imagine Madigan winning the Oscar, I can certainly see her winning with the critics. Of course, Teyana Taylor or Wunmi Mosaku could be bolstered by their films’ success with critics. In the end, I think Madigan ekes out a win and builds Oscar momentum.
Best Original Screenplay
Jay Kelly Nil
Marty Supreme PP
Sentimental Value TL
Sinners WL PP TL
Sorry, Baby Nil
Weapons WL
Wesley Lovell: Sinners has no real competition and should win easily.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Bugonia Nil
Frankenstein Nil
Hamnet PP TL
No Other Choice WL
One Battle After Another WL PP TL
Train Dreams Nil
Wesley Lovell: ibid, except One Battle After Another.
Best Casting and Ensemble
Hamnet PP
Jay Kelly Nil
Marty Supreme Nil
One Battle After Another WL PP TL
Sinners WL TL
Wicked: For Good Nil
Wesley Lovell: One Battle After Another and Sinners again battle it out for supremacy with One Battle having the slight edge with a starrier cast.
Best Song
Drive – F1 Nil
Clothed by the Sun – The Testament of Ann Lee Nil
The Girl in the Bubble – Wicked: For Good Nil
Golden – KPop Demon Hunters WL TL
I Lied to You – Sinners WL PP TL
.Train Dreams – Train Dreams PP
Wesley Lovell: “I Lied to You” seems to be the song that has gotten the most attention other than “Golden,” which could also come out on top.
Best Score
F1 Nil
Frankenstein Nil
Hamnet Nil
Marty Supreme Nil
One Battle After Another WL PP TL
Sinners WL PP TL
Wesley Lovell: Sinners has an advantage over One Battle in this category but not a substantial one.
Best Editing
F1 TL
A House of Dynamite Nil
Marty Supreme WL
One Battle After Another PP TL
The Perfect Neighbor Nil
Sinners WL PP
Wesley Lovell: This one could be close. Sinners has the action elements (as does One Battle, which comes in third in my estimation), but Marty Supreme makes ping pong exciting, which has often presaged an editing win.
Best Cinematography
F1 Nil
Frankenstein TL
Hamnet Nil
One Battle After Another WL PP
Sinners WL PP TL
Train Dreams Nil
Wesley Lovell: Sinners has the most unique color palette and that alone should boost it above One Battle, Frankenstein, and Train Dreams.
Best Production Design
The Fantastic Four: First Steps Nil
Frankenstein WL PP TL
Hamnet Nil
Marty Supreme Nil
Sinners WL PP
Wicked: For Good TL
Wesley Lovell: For once a category where the top two competitors won’t win. Although Wicked: For Good might have pulled off a win had it not been a critical weakling, Frankenstein will continue Guillermo del Toro’s trend of winning in this category.
Best Costume Design
Frankenstein WL PP TL
Hamnet Nil
Hedda Nil
Kiss of the Spider Woman Nil
Sinners Nil
Wicked: For Good WL PP TL
Wesley Lovell: This one is a bit closer for Wicked: For Good but Frankenstein just has “newer” clothing and Wicked: For Good looked like more of the same.
Best Hair & Makeup
28 Years Later Nil
Frankenstein WL PP TL
Sinners WL PP
The Smashing Machine Nil
Weapons Nil
Wicked: For Good TL
Wesley Lovell: Sinners should have an easy victory here if Frankenstein or 28 Years Later doesn’t surprise.
Best Sound
F1 TL
Frankenstein Nil
One Battle After Another WL PP
Sinners WL PP TL
Sirât Nil
Warfare Nil
Wesley Lovell: Sinners triumphs again. It pays to be unique among your competition.
Best Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash WL PP TL
F1 Nil
Frankenstein PP TL
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning Nil
Sinners WL
Superman Nil
Wesley Lovell: Avatar will continue its winning trend though Sinners and Superman might give it a run for its money.
Best Comedy
The Ballad of Wallis Island PP
Eternity WL PP TL
Friendship Nil
The Naked Gun WL TL
The Phoenician Scheme Nil
Splitsville Nil
Wesley Lovell: How some of these critically panned films could end up on a list of best comedies no one knows. That one of them could win is even more head-scratchingly bizarre. That said, Naked Gun will likely not pull it out as Eternity is probably the more highly praised title on this list.
Best Foreign Language Film
Belén Nil
It Was Just an Accident WL PP TL
Left-Handed Girl Nil
No Other Choice WL
The Secret Agent PP TL
Sirât Nil
Wesley Lovell: It Was Just an Accident has momentum and with Sentimental Value absent, the competition comes down to No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, or Sirât if nothing else.
Best Stunt Design
Ballerina WL
F1 TL
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning WL TL
One Battle After Another PP
Sinners PP
Warfare Nil
Wesley Lovell: Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning was made for this award, though Ballerina could surprise.
Best Young Actor / Actress
Everett Blunck – The Plague Nil
Miles Caton – Sinners WL PP TL
Cary Christopher – Weapons Nil
Shannon Mahina Gorman – Rental Family Nil
Jacobi Jupe – Hamnet WL PP TL
Nina Ye – Left-Handed Girl Nil
Wesley Lovell: Only two of these actors has come within a country mile of Oscar consideration, Miles Caton and Jacobi Jupe who are the most recognized of the batch with Caton more likely to triumph in the end.
