The second televised awards show of the season and the last for a while, the Globes have changed a lot since they were spun off from the now-defunct Hollywood Foreign Press Association. They have certainly come a more appropriately international organization but their Oscar prognosticative capabilities are in the air for now. We’ll see how these turn out.
GOLDEN GLOBE AWARDS
Legend:
Winner Predictions:
Wesley Lovell Pete Patrick Thomas LaTourrette
Runner-Up Predictions:
Wesley Lovell Pete Patrick Thomas LaTourrette
Wesley Lovell: The Golden Globes organization will redefine how they are seen in the Oscar season but for now, we’ll operate on the same assumptions that they want to match the Oscars. I’m going to look at them in that light while acknowledging their more international flavor of recent vintage.
Pete Patrick: With One Battle After Another ridiculously placed in Comedy, chances are that Warner Bros.’ two front-runners, One Battle and Sinners will both win their categories with whatever surprises there are likely to come from other categories.
Thomas La Tourette: Back when the Hollywood Foreign Press ran the Globes, it was fairly easy to guess how awards might go. If there was a big marquee name, then that person was likely to win. Under the newer membership, it is usually closer to an Oscar vote. One Battle After Another should easily win the Comedy/Musical category, but will set up an interesting race between Timothée Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio for best actor in a Comedy/Musical. Drama will be between Hamnet and Sinners, with my heart saying Hamnet. Jessie Buckley seems a safe bet for drama actress with Rose Byrne perhaps getting actress in a Comedy/Musical. They may go on to vie for the Oscar as well. Paul Thomas Anderson should easily win best director of One Battle After Another. I am guessing that Sinners will win the award for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement as they probably won’t award it best picture. There will probably be some surprises, but not as many as there used to be.
Best Picture, Drama
Frankenstein Nil
Hamnet WL TL
It Was Just an Accident Nil
The Secret Agent Nil
Sentimental Value PP
Sinners WL PP TL
Wesley Lovell: Most of this year’s races have been decided between One Battle After Another and Sinners. I see no reason to believe it will go any other way. This would be the place to start a steamroll for Hamnet or Frankenstein.
Pete Patrick: Sinners is the presumptive winner here but either Sentimental Value or Hamnet could upset.
Best Picture, Comedy/Musical
Blue Moon Nil
Bugonia Nil
Marty Supreme PP TL
No Other Choice WL
Nouvelle Vague Nil
One Battle After Another WL PP TL
Wesley Lovell: This is probably a slam dunk for One Battle unless the international flavor of the group chooses to go with No Other Choice, which seems unlikely.
Pete Patrick: One Battle is not a comedy and Marty Supreme isn’t really one either but one or the other will likely win here.
Best Picture, Animated
Arco Nil
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba the Movie: Infinity Castle Nil
Elio Nil
KPop Demon Hunters WL PP TL
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain WL
Zootopia 2 PP TL
Wesley Lovell: KPop Demon Hunters seems the safe bet but Little Amélie could surprise.
Pete Patrick: Popularity should control this one with Netflix phenomenon KPop being slightly more popular than box-office smash Zootopis 2.
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another WL PP TL
Ryan Coogler – Sinners WL PP TL
Guillermo del Toro – Frankenstein Nil
Jafar Panahi – It Was Just an Accident Nil
Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value Nil
Chloé Zhao – Hamnet Nil
Wesley Lovell: Paul Thomas Anderson is likely to win unless Sinners begins to mount as a dark horse contender.
Pete Patrick: PTA should continue his sweep of awards as this year’s most touted director. Coogler is his closest competitor.
Best Actor, Drama
Joel Edgerton – Train Dreams Nil
Oscar Isaac – Frankenstein Nil
Dwayne Johnson – The Smashing Machine Nil
Michael B. Jordan – Sinners WL PP TL
Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent WL PP TL
Jeremy Allen White – Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere Nil
Wesley Lovell: Michael B. Jordan seems like the frontrunner but don’t count out Wagner Moura who’s been impressing all year with his dark horse status.
Pete Patrick: If Moura is going to win a major award this year, it is likely to be the Globe. If not, Jordan is likely to win this one.
Best Actor, Comedy/Musical
Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme WL PP TL
George Clooney – Jay Kelly Nil
Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another WL PP TL
Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon Nil
Lee Byung-Hun – No Other Choice Nil
Jesse Plemons – Bugonia Nil
Wesley Lovell: Under the old Globes, this would be a slam dunk for Leonardo DiCaprio. It still could be but Timothée Chalamet may now have some moementum.
Pete Patrick: Chalamet is likely to repeat his triumph at least week’s Critics Choice awards with DiCaprio close on hie heels.
Best Actress, Drama
Jessie Buckley – Hamnet WL PP TL
Jennifer Lawrence – Die My Love Nil
Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value WL PP TL
Julia Roberts – After the Hunt Nil
Tessa Thompson – Hedda Nil
Eva Victor – Sorry, Baby Nil
Wesley Lovell: Without her prime competition for the season (Rose Byrne), it should be an easy win for Buckley. Reinsve needs this to change the narrative.
Pete Patrick: Buckley should be an easy winner here with Reinsve the only other possibility.
Best Actress, Comedy/Musical
Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You WL PP TL
Cynthia Erivo – Wicked: For Good Nil
Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue PP
Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another Nil
Amanda Seyfried – The Testament of Ann Lee Nil
Emma Stone – Bugonia WL TL
Wesley Lovell: Rose Byrne may have a lot of support from critics but if Globes voters want to shake things up, Emma Stone or Chase Infiniti could be the benefactor. Don’t count out Amanda Seyfried either.
Pete Patrick: Hudson would have been an easy victor under the old Globes. It will be interesting to see if the new voters will go the same way.
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another WL TL
Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein PP
Paul Mescal – Hamnet Nil
Sean Penn – One Battle After Another Nil
Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly Nil
Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value WL PP TL
Wesley Lovell: Del Toro was the lead contender for the Oscar until Jacob Elordi slowed his roll. I expect this group to get Del Toro back into the action.
Pete Patrick: Will the international makeup of the Globes give the award to Skarsgård, will they go the way of most of the year’s critics and go with Del Toro, or will they repeat the Critics Choice of Elordi?
Best Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt – The Smashing Machine Nil
Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value Nil
Ariana Grande – Wicked: For Good TL
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value PP
Amy Madigon – Weapons WL PP
Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another WL TL
Wesley Lovell: If they truly love One Battle After Another, Teyana Taylor has a good shot at this. Amy Madigan winning the Critics Choice could shift momentum but Ariana Grande would be a traditional Globes choice, though they are not traditional anymore (save the Julia Roberts selection).
Pete Patrick: Madigan has the edge with Elordi voters but a vote for Skarsgard could either go her way or help Lilleaas.
Best Screenplay
Hamnet Nil
It Was Just an Accident Nil
Marty Supreme Nil
One Battle After Another WL PP TL
Sentimental Value Nil
Sinners WL PP TL
Wesley Lovell: The two powerhouses from original and adapted categories will finally pair off on a televised program and might help us determine whether frontrunner One Battle remains such.
Pete Patrick: The Globes mix original and adapted so this could go either way.
Best Song
Dream As One – Avatar: Fire and Ash Nil
Golden – KPop Demon Hunters WL PP TL
I Lied to You – Sinners WL PP TL
No Place Like Home – Wicked: For Good Nil
The Girl in the Bubble – Wicked: For Good Nil
.Train Dreams – Train Dreams Nil
Wesley Lovell: This isn’t an easy category to predict but the year’s two main contenders have been “Golden” and “I Lied to You.” “Golden” is more likely to come out on top but I refuse to think “I Lied to You” couldn’t prevail.
Pete Patrick: I’d like to think they’ll vote for Train Dreams, but they probably won’t.
Best Original Score
F1 Nil
Frankenstein Nil
Hamnet Nil
One Battle After Another WL PP TL
Sinners WL PP TL
Sirāt Nil
Wesley Lovell: This is one of the few areas where Sinners has an edge over One Battle.
Pete Patrick: Another race between the front-runners.
Best Non-English Language Film
It Was Just an Accident TL
No Other Choice Nil
The Secret Agent WL PP
Sentimental Value WL PP TL
Sirāt Nil
The Voice of Hind Rijab Nil
Wesley Lovell: Three of these are nominated in the main Best Picture categories so could all contend. Sentimental Value has the most nominations but The Secret Agent has done decently this awards season as has No Other Choice. Any one of them could win but I suspect Sentimental Value probably has the edge, Crtics Choice be damned.
Pete Patrick: Any of the nominees would make an excellent choice but I see this as going to The Secret Agent in a close race with Sentimental Value.
Cinematic and Box Office Achievement
Nil
Avatar: Fire and Ash WL PP
F1 Nil
KPop Demon Hunters Nil
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning Nil
Sinners WL PP TL
Weapons Nil
Wicked: For Good TL
Zootopia 2 Nil
Wesley Lovell: Sinners is contending in Best Picture and if they decide to give it this award, then it’s probably out of that competition but a double win is not inconceivable.
Pete Patrick: They will probably want to share the wealth here and give it to Avatar: Fire and Ash over Sinners.
