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98th Oscar Morning: Final Nomination Thoughts

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Wesley Lovell

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Tomorrow morning, the nominations for the 98th Academy Awards will be announced. They’ll be revealed by Danielle Brooks and Lewis Pullman. Want to follow along tomorrow. See the checklist at the end of this article and mark off the selections as they are revealed.

Before the nominations are announced, I wanted to put down in writing my thoughts on this year’s categories and how I came to my choices for my final predictions. It’s been a long and tame ride to this year’s Oscar nominations and I’m surprised how well some selections have carried on into the final stretch with minimal room for surprises still to sneak in.

Since the nominations will be broken down in groups with less than half nominated in the first group and the remainder in the second, I will be breaking down my commentary similarly. I’ll put the categories in the order of how competitive I think they will be.

In addition, bringing back a tradition that we haven’t had in years, I’m including a checklist at the end of this article where you can check off the nominees as they are announced.

Before we dig into that, let’s start off with the presentation groupings. While the announcement order within the group was not revealed and subject to change, the below should give you an idea of when things should announce. That said, every year, one or two categories are swapped in the last-minute between groups.

Group 1 (alphabetical order):

  • Actor in a Supporting Role
  • Actress in a Supporting Role
  • Animated Short Film
  • Costume Design
  • Live Action Short Film
  • Makeup and Hairstyling
  • Music (Original Score)
  • Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
  • Writing (Original Screenplay)

Group 2 (alphabetical order):

  • Actor in a Leading Role
  • Actress in a Leading Role
  • Animated Feature Film
  • Casting
  • Cinematography
  • Directing
  • Documentary Feature Film
  • Documentary Short Film
  • Film Editing
  • International Feature Film
  • Music (Original Song)
  • Best Picture
  • Production Design
  • Sound
  • Visual Effects

Below, embedded in this article, is a video where you can watch the announcement streamed live starting at 5:30am PST / 7:30am CST / 8:30am EST / 1:30pm GMT / 9:30pm China for Group 1 and 5:41am PST / 7:41am CST / 8:41am EST / 1:41pm GMT / 9:41pm China for Group 2. Although you can watch it from my site, YouTube (or another of the Academy’s socials) may be the better bet.

To find my Hopefuls list without the commentary, click here: listed as Hopefuls.

Don’t miss all of Awards Landscape’s contributors and their thoughts in today’s other post: final nominations predictions post.

With all of that out of the way, let’s get to the commentary:

Group 1

Best Animated Short Film

My Predictions:

  • The Quinta’s Ghost (c-12/16, n-12/16, o-12/16)
  •  
  • Butterfly (c-12/16, n-12/16)
  • Éiru (c-12/16, n-12/16)
  • The Girl Who Cried Pearls (c-12/16, n-12/16)
  • I Died in Irpin (c-12/16, n-12/16)
  •  
  • Autokar (c-12/16)
  • Cardboard (c-12/16)
  • Forevergreen (c-12/16)
  • Hurikán (c-12/16)
  • The Night Boots (c-12/16)
  • Playing God (c-12/16)
  • Retirement Plan (c-12/16)
  • The Shyness of Trees (c-12/16)
  • Snow Bear (c-12/16)
  • The Three Sisters (c-12/16)

General Commentary: The short film categories are some of the most difficult to predict. That’s because you have to have seen them all and then seen most of what the Academy has previously nominated and then decide what will make the cut. I haven’t seen any of these titles and the only one I’m modestly confident about getting nominated is The Girl Who Cried Pearls because it’s been nominated elsewhere already. All of these selections were made based on the narrative rather than the content.

Best Live Action Short Film

My Predictions:

  • Jane Austen’s Period Drama (c-12/16, n-12/16, o-12/16)
  •  
  • Ado (c-12/16, n-12/16)
  • The Pearl Comb (c-12/16, n-12/16)
  • Rock, Paper, Scissors (c-12/16, n-12/16)
  • Two People Exchanging Saliva (c-12/16, n-12/16)
  •  
  • Amarela (c-12/16)
  • Beyond Silence (c-12/16)
  • The Boy with White Skin (c-12/16)
  • Butcher’s Stain (c-12/16)
  • Butterfly on a Wheel (c-12/16)
  • Dad’s Not Home (c-12/16)
  • Extremist (c-12/16)
  • A Friend of Dorothy (c-12/16)
  • Pantyhose (c-12/16)
  • The Singers (c-12/16)

General Commentary: Less difficult to predict because it’s content only (not animation style) that will determine the nominees. Right now, there are plenty that could get nominated based on what they are about but I couldn’t peg any specific one as a sure thing.

Best Adapted Screenplay

My Predictions:

  • One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson (c-4/17, n-4/17, o-4/17) — Lock —
  •  
  • Hamnet – Chloé Zhao (c-4/17, n-5/19) — Near Lock —
  • Bugonia – Jang Joon-hwan, Will Tracy (c-4/17, n-11/16) — Good —
  • Train Dreams – Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar (c-11/18, n-12/14) — Borderline —
  • Frankenstein – Guillermo del Toro (c-4/17, n-4/17) — Borderline —
  •  
  • Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery – Rian Johnson (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • No Other Choice – Park Chan-wook, Lee Kyoung-mi, Jahye Lee, Don McKellar (c-12/14) — Borderline —

Locks & Near Locks: One Battle After Another, Hamnet

Goods: Bugonia

Borderline/Predicted: Train Dreams, Frankenstein

Borderline/Not Predicted: Wake Up Dead Man, No Other Choice

In Summary: Although it’s not the most up-in-the-air category, there are only two titles whose omissions would be shocking: One Battle and Hamnet. Beyond that, any one of Bugonia, Train Dreams, Frankenstein, Wake Up Dead Man, and No Other Choice could make an appearance and there are possibly others that could as well but it seems to have largely come down to these seven contenders. The only one I’m not really confident of a nomination is Frankenstein. While I suppose it seems pretty solid, never underestimate Rian Johnson fans who’ve nominated both of his prior Knives Out mysteries. I could imagine it weaseling its way in over Frank or possibly even Train Dreams or Bugonia. Yet, I think Bugonia is unique enough to hold on while Train Dreams may well rely on its status as a Best Picture contender, something that seems less certain as the days go on but for now, I give them all the slight edge over Wake Up Dead Man.

Best Original Screenplay

My Predictions:

  • Sinners – Ryan Coogler (c-4/17, n-5/19, o-12/14) — Lock —
  •  
  • Marty Supreme – Josh Safdie, Ronald Bronstein (c-4/17, n-12/14) — Lock —
  • Sentimental Value – Joachim Trier, Skil Vogt (c-4/17, n-10/19) — Near Lock —
  • The Secret Agent – Kleber Mendonça Filho (c-12/14, n-1/11) — Borderline —
  • It Was Just an Accident – Jafar Panahi (c-9/22, n-9/22) — Borderline —
  •  
  • Sorry, Baby – Eva Victor (c-12/14) — Borderline —
  • Weapons – Zach Cregger (c-12/14) — Borderline —
  • Testament of Ann Lee – Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold (c-9/22) — Borderline —
  • If I Had Legs I’d Kick You – Mary Bronstein (c-12/14) — Borderline —
  • Blue Moon – Robert Kaplow (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • Jay Kelly – Noah Baumbach, Emily Mortimer (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • The Voice of Hind Rajab – Kaouther Ben Hania (c-9/22) — Borderline —

Locks & Near Locks: Sinners, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value

Goods: None

Borderline/Predicted: The Secret Agent, It Was Just an Accident

Borderline/Not Predicted: Sorry, Baby, Weapons, Testament of Ann Lee, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Blue Moon, Jay Kelly, The Voice of Hind Rajab

In Summary: Any of the three locks missing would be shocking, though Sentimental Value has at least a small chance of missing the list. It’s filling the remaining two slots that is difficult. It Was Just an Accident and The Secret Agent are both likely to be Best Picture nominees and considering the profile of Jafar Panahi (Accident), I’d be surprised if he didn’t make it. Still, Sorry, Baby and Weapons at least have Best Picture aspirations too and each could show up in surprise. That said, I don’t know that Weapons is much of a writer’s achievement, so if there’s a surprise, I think it’s Sorry, Baby.

Best Supporting Actor

My Predictions:

  • Benicio Del Toro – One Battle After Another (c-4/17, n-9/22, o-12/14) — Lock —
  •  
  • Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein (c-4/17, n-4/17) — Near Lock —
  • Sean Penn – One Battle After Another (c-4/17, n-12/14) — Good —
  • Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value (c-4/17, n-6/17) — Borderline —
  • Miles Caton – Sinners (c-1/19, n-1/20) — Borderline —
  •  
  • Paul Mescal – Hamnet (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • Delroy Lindo – Sinners (c-12/14) — Borderline —
  • Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly (c-12/14) — Borderline —
  • Andrew Scott – Blue Moon (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • William H. Macy – Train Dreams (c-11/18) — Doubtful —

Locks & Near Locks: Benicio Del Toro, Jacob Elordi

Goods: Sean Penn

Borderline/Predicted: Stellan Skarsgård, Miles Caton

Borderline/Not Predicted: Paul Mescal, Delroy Lindo, Adam Sandler, Andrew Scott

In Summary: Del Toro and Elordi are pretty sure things, though Frankenstein not performing well with the rest of the nominations could pull him under. It’s also likely that Oscar winner Sean Penn will make an appearance as well even though double nominations in supporting categories happen far less frequently than they once did. Stellan Skarsgård will likely secure a nomination as the veteran of the category and with that Globe speech at the right moment, I can see that putting him over the top. It’s the fifth slot that I’m going out on a limb to predict.

When the Screen Actors Guild announced its nominations, Miles Caton was one of the surprises of the morning. He’s something of the soul of the film and his auspicious debut has been celebrated all over the critics awards. He’s often displaced in predictions by Paul Mescal and that’s still a big possibility but I’m going off the rails to predict Caton makes a shock appearance. If he does, it will likely result in Sinners becoming Oscar history’s most nominated film. There’s some possibility that Visual Effects doesn’t materialize and keeps it from the record but I suspect it’s going to make a strong run at that record and, if it can pull it off, One Battle might just have a fight on its hands for the top award.

That said, I think Mescal’s a safer bet for a nomination. Hamnet has the Shakespeare in Love vibe and that did wonders for Judi Dench’s Oscar nomination. Mescal has been on the cusp of a second nomination for a couple of years now and with the popularity of Hamnet, he’s got a good chance. That said, the only actor so far to get near universal citation for their performance is star Jessie Buckley. Mescal remains enough of a bubble pick that I could see voters always putting him in a lower position on their ballots and never at the top where he would need to go to pull off a nod in this slate.

The only other actor I could genuinely see pulling off a surprise nomination is Delroy Lindo. Lindo has previously been on the edge of a nomination and failed to make the cut and while Lindo has the benefit of starring in one of the most successful films of the year, I think Caton is going to overshadow him in the end, but a double nomination for two films seems well outside the realm of possibility. If SAG can’t recognize Lindo over Caton, I don’t see the Academy following suit.

Best Costume Design

My Predictions:

  • Frankenstein – Kate Hawley (c-4/17, n-4/17, o-4/17) — Lock —
  •  
  • Sinners – Ruth E. Carter (c-4/17, n-4/17) — Near Lock —
  • Wicked: For Good – Paul Tazewell (c-4/17, n-4/17) — Good —
  • Hamnet – Malgosia Turzanska (c-4/17, n-5/19) — Borderline —
  • Testament of Ann Lee – Malgorzata Karpiuk (c-9/22, n-9/22) — Borderline —
  •  
  • Marty Supreme – Miyako Bellizzi (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • Hedda – Lindsay Pugh (c-1/19) — Borderline —
  • The Fantastic Four: First Steps – Alexandra Byrne (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale – Anna Robbins (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • The Phoenician Scheme – Milena Canonero (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • Kiss of the Spider Woman – Colleen Atwood (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • Train Dreams – Dakota Keller, Malgosia Turzanska (c-11/18) — Doubtful —

Locks & Near Locks: Frankenstein, Sinners

Goods: Wicked: For Good

Borderline/Predicted: Hamnet, Testament of Ann Lee

Borderline/Not Predicted: Marty Supreme, Hedda, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale, The Phoenician Scheme, Kiss of the Spider Woman.

In Summary: Frankenstein, Sinners, and to a slightly lesser extent, Wicked: For Good, are the only titles I think are guaranteed slots. Hamnet’s a solid bet for the fifth slot but the fifth is up in the air despite nothing quite feeling like a contender for it. Testament of Ann Lee has lots of period costumes to please costume designers and that might bolster its chances over the more recent period seen in Marty Supreme. That said, Marty Supreme ascended at the perfect moment and seems assured of several below the line nominations and while I think Testament will edge it out, I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Marty claim the fifth slot instead. Everything else seems unlikely at this point, though perhaps Hedda should be ranked higher.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

My Predictions:

  • Frankenstein (c-4/17, n-4/17, o-4/17) — Near Lock —
  •  
  • Sinners (c-4/17, n-7/20) — Good —
  • Wicked: For Good (c-4/17, n-4/17) — Borderline —
  • One Battle After Another (c-12/16, n-12/16) — Borderline —
  • The Ugly Stepsister (c-12/16, n-12/16) — Borderline —
  •  
  • Marty Supreme (c-12/16) — Borderline —
  • Nuremberg (c-12/16) — Borderline —
  • The Smashing Machine (c-12/16) — Borderline —
  • Kokuho (c-12/16) — Borderline —
  • The Alto Knights (c-12/16) — Borderline —

Locks & Near Locks: Frankenstein

Goods: Sinners

Borderline/Predicted: Wicked: For Good, One Battle After Another, The Ugly Stepsister

Borderline/Not Predicted: Marty Supreme, Nuremberg, The Smashing Machine, Kokuho, The Alto Knights

In Summary: Nothing is truly out of the question. This is the branch that once nominated Click for Best Makeup. The Alto Knights doesn’t seem like an outlandish suggestion now, does it? Frankenstein, and to a lesser extent Sinners, are the only titles I would be surprised not to see nominated. Wicked: For Good also seems like a solid possibility. It’s from there down that things become murkier. One Battle After Another might be a bit of a juggernaut but this could be its weakest link for a nomination. I still think it could pull things off but there are more obvious options available, including the title I rank fifth: The Ugly Stepsister. That film seems like the perfect picture for this branch’s proclivities. The same is true of the rest and I could make cases for any of them. That said, the same case to be made for Marty Supreme, Nuremberg, The Smashing Machine, and The Alto Knights is that they are heavy on period and character makeup, most notably old age makeup in Alto Knights. Then there’s Kokuho, which, like Ugly Stepsister, seems like an odd duckling until you realize how important makeup is to the themes of the film and then you might end up pushing it higher. Having said all that, I am not confident in any but my top three suggestions. The rest could easily be replaced by anything else on the shortlist.

Best Original Score

My Predictions:

  • Sinners – Ludwig Göransson (c-4/17, n-9/22, o-1/20) — Lock —
  •  
  • One Battle After Another – Jonny Greenwood (c-4/17, n-4/17) — Near Lock —
  • Frankenstein – Alexandre Desplat (c-4/17, n-4/17) — Borderline —
  • Hamnet – Max Richter (c-4/17, n-5/19) — Borderline —
  • Train Dreams – Bryce Dessner (c-11/18, n-12/14) — Borderline —
  •  
  • Sirât – Kangding Ray (c-12/14) — Borderline —
  • Bugonia – Jerskin Fendrix (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • Avatar: Fire and Ash – Simon Franglen (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • F1 – Hans Zimmer (c-12/14) — Borderline —
  • Wicked: For Good – John Powell, Stephen Schwartz (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • Tron: Ares – Nine Inch Nails (c-12/16) — Borderline —
  • Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery – Nathan Johnson (c-12/16) — Doubtful —
  • Marty Supreme – Daniel Lopatin (c-12/14) — Borderline —
  • A House of Dynamite – Volker Bertelmann (c-12/16) — Borderline —
  • Jay Kellly – Nicholas Britell (c-12/16) — Doubtful —
  • Hedda – Hildur Guðnadóttir (c-12/16) — Doubtful —
  • Diane Warren: Relentless – Lesley Barber (c-12/16) — Doubtful —
  • Captain America: Brave New World – Laura Karpman (c-12/16) — Doubtful —
  • Nuremberg – Brian Tyler (c-12/16) — Doubtful —
  • Truth and Treason – Aaron Zigman (c-12/16) — Doubtful —

Locks & Near Locks: Sinners, One Battle After Another

Goods: None

Borderline/Predicted: Frankenstein, Hamnet, Train Dreams

Borderline/Not Predicted: Sirât, Bugonia, Avatar: Fire and Water, F1, Wicked: For Good, Tron: Ares

In Summary: The shortlist was heavy with prominent composers but apart from quite a few prior nominees, there seems to be a lot of filler this year. Sinners and One Battle After Another (the latter of which I wouldn’t even remotely consider nominating) are pretty safe bets. The other three titles I’ve predicted also seem fairly strong but they have weaknesses. Hamnet’s score is subtle, not at all the kind of nomination this group tends to pick. Frankenstein has been fading a bit recently but Alexandre Desplat is the modern John Williams who can get nominated for just about anything. Train Dreams has gotten plenty of precursor love, which might help it hold on. That said, I could imagine nominations for almost any other title on the list, but the one I think most likely to pull off a shock is Sirât, which seems to be one of this year’s tech achievements in foreign film that can carry over to the Oscars. Between its placement on the shortlists here, in Cinematography, and in Sound, you can’t exactly count it out of contention and I think it could very easily replace one of the borderline three.

Best Supporting Actress

My Predictions:

  • Amy Madigan – Weapons (c-8/17) — Borderline —
  •  
  • Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another (c-4/17, n-1/11) — Borderline —
  • Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value (c-12/14, n-12/14) — Borderline —
  • Odessa A’zion – Marty Supreme (c-12/14, n-1/11) — Borderline —
  • Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners (c-12/14, n-12/14) — Borderline —
  •  
  • Ariana Grande – Wicked: For Good (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • Emily Watson – Hamnet (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • Gwyneth Paltrow – Marty Supreme (c-4/17) — Doubtful —

Locks & Near Locks: None

Goods: None

Borderline/Predicted: Amy Madigan, Teyana Taylor, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Odessa A’zion, Wunmi Mosaku

Borderline/Not Predicted: Ariana Grande, Elle Fanning, Emily Watson

In Summary: You might be surprised to see that none of my predictions are classed as lock, near lock, or good, and that’s because I can make cases against every single name on the list. Madigan’s in a horror film, Mosaku’s in a horror film, Taylor’s intentionally abrasive in One Battle. Only Ibsdotter Lilleaas and A’zion could be said to have no genuine negatives other than being no-names like most everyone else in contention. Madigan’s ubiquitous presence throughout Oscar season, along with her legacy as an actor should be enough to pull her across the line. Taylor won the Globe and that alone probably secures her nomination. Ibsdotter Lilleaas and Mosaku have shown up almost everywhere. I’d say they also have equal claims to a nomination. A’zion got a boost from Marty Supreme coming out at the right moment and with that surprise SAG nomination to boost, I think she’s probably a bit safer than even Moasku.

At one point, Ariana Grande was a much stronger contender and she’s managed to hold on in many places where costar Cynthia Erivo has fallen off so she still has a chance but considering the competition this year, I think if she makes it in, she barely makes it in and in over Mosaku for lack of a better option. Lastly, there’s Elle Fanning who was though to be in contention for a second supporting nomination for Sentimental Value. She’s one of the greatest working young actors and has never yet scored an Oscar nomination. While I would love to see her pick it up finally, it doesn’t seem to be in the cards this year.

Group 2

After the break, the Academy will announce its next batch of nominees, so let’s do the same.

Best Documentary Short Subject

My Predictions:

  • All the Empty Rooms (c-12/16, n-12/16, o-12/16)
  •  
  • Cashing Out (c-12/16, n-12/16)
  • Children No More: Were and Are Gone (c-12/16, n-12/16)
  • The Devil Is Busy (c-12/16, n-12/16)
  • Rovina’s Choice (c-12/16, n-12/16)
  •  
  • All the Walls Came Down (c-12/16)
  • Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud (c-12/16)
  • Bad Hostage (c-12/16)
  • Chasing Time (c-12/16)
  • Classroom 4 (c-12/16)
  • Heartbeat (c-12/16)
  • Last Days on Lake Trinity (c-12/16)
  • On Healing Land, Birds Perch (c-12/16)
  • Perfectly a Strangeness (c-12/16)
  • We Were the Scenery (c-12/16)

General Commentary: Another batch of shorts that are pure guess work. Again, I chose them based on narrative significance but there were enough that could earn nominations on that basis that I couldn’t say that any were guarantees.

Best International Feature

My Predictions:

  • Sentimental Value – Norway (c-11/21, n-12/16, o-12/16) — Good —
  •  
  • The Secret Agent – Brazil (c-11/21, n-12/16) — Good —
  • It Was Just an Accident – France (c-11/21, n-12/16) — Good —
  • No Other Choice – South Korea (c-11/21, n-12/16) — Borderline —
  • Sirât – Spain (c-11/21, n-12/16) — Borderline —
  •  
  • The Voice of Hind Rajab – Tunisia (c-11/21) — Borderline —
  • Belén – Argentina (c-11/21) — Borderline —
  • Left-Handed Girl – Taiwan (c-11/21) — Borderline —
  • Sound of Falling – Germany (c-11/21) — Borderline —
  • Palestine 36 – Palestine (c-11/21) — Borderline —
  • The President’s Cake – Iraq (c-11/21) — Borderline —
  • All That’s Left of You – Jordan (c-11/21) — Borderline —
  • Kokuho – Japan (c-11/21) — Borderline —
  • Homebound – India (c-11/21) — Borderline —
  • Late Shift – Switzerland (c-11/21) — Borderline —

General Commentary: This is probably the most stacked International Feature category in years. Not only are my top predictions all pretty good bets for nomination, there are at least five other shortlisters who could surprise. I started off putting the films most likely to secure Oscar nominations in other categories towards the top of the list. Sentimental Value, The Secret Agent, and It Was Just an Accident being the most likely. No Other Choice is a dark comedy and although it has the weakest foundation for other nominations of the five, I think this will be considered the perfect place to recognize it. That leaves the fifth slot. Sirât has earned plenty of acclaim and showed up on several shortlists but without being a major contender for Best Picture, it probably has the weakest profile. The Voice of Hind Rajab, Belén, Left-Handed Girl, and Sound of Falling all have solid profiles as well. Ultimately, I could see any one of those four swapping places in the nominations list with No Other Choice and/or Sirât somewhat easily.

Best Animated Feature

My Predictions:

  • Little Amélie or the Character of Rain – GKIDS (c-9/22, n-12/14, o-12/14) — Good —
  •  
  • Zootopia 2 – Disney (c-4/17, n-4/17) — Good —
  • Arco – Neon (c-9/22, n-12/14) — Good —
  • Elio – Pixar (c-4/17, n-4/17) — Borderline —
  • KPop Demon Hunters – Netflix (c-4/17, n-1/11) — Borderline —
  •  
  • A Magnificent Life – Sony Pictures Classics (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • Scarlet – Sony Pictures Classics (c-9/22) — Borderline —
  • Bad Guys 2 – Universal (c-9/22) — Borderline —
  • Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle – Aniplex of America (c-11/21) — Borderline —
  • Boys Go to Jupiter – Cartuna (c-11/21) — Borderline —
  • Endless Cookie – Obscured (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • In Your Dreams – Netflix (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • Dog Man – DreamWorks (c-4/17) — Borderline —

Locks & Near Locks: None

Goods: Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2, Arco

Borderline/Predicted: Elio, KPop Demon Hunters

Borderline/Not Predicted: A Magnificent Life, Scarlet, The Bad Guys 2, Demon Slayer, Boys Go to Jupiter, Endless Cookie, In Your Dreams, Dog Man

In Summary: I’ve been waiting a while to explain one of my longtime choices in this category. It’s time to finally explain why I didn’t put KPop Demon Hunters as a surefire nominee much earlier in the process. Before that, though, let’s discuss the three titles I think are the most likely to pull off nominations. Little Amélie looks like several other recent nominations in this category. It’s about a little girl learning about life through a framework of tragedy. Zootopia 2 is the de facto Disney nominee while Arco feels like one of those anime-esque selections that always make the list. That leaves two slots. I’m putting Elio in the fourth slot. Despite its box office failure, the film has consistently shown up throughout the season as a nominee. It may not be top tier Pixar but even second tier Pixar is a pretty safe bet.

Now, let’s talk about the film that I think would generate quite a bit of shock for not being nominated but which I believe firmly is very likely to happen. There are three examples I want to cite for why I think KPop Demon Hunters’ crowning is far from assured. The Adventures of Tintin. The Simpsons Movie. The Lego Movie. All three films were critically acclaimed and dominated the precursors. Two of them were box office successes (Tintin wasn’t) and all of them were thought to be invincible. Until they weren’t. Now, we can make excuses for why these three didn’t make it but KPop will but I think the profile is similar enough to build a foundation for missing the final slot. That defense is that KPop is not based on material previously produced or published. Simpsons was adapted from television. Lego Movie was the latest in a long series of movies using the same technology. Tintin had heavy motion capture use and that’s often been a medium animators are reticent to recognize as they consider it visual effects rather than traditional animation. KPop is an original property but it looks so much like any number of other anime (it’s definitely not anime) films out there you’d be forgiven for thinking it was adapted from a Korean cartoon. That’s the source of my reticence.

Although I still think something like A Magnificent Life could surprise with a nomination like one of that filmmaker’s prior efforts, I’m going to hesitantly put KPop into the list and dare the Academy to prove me wrong.

Best Casting

My Predictions:

  • Sinners – Francine Maisler (c-4/17, n-12/14, o-1/20) — Lock —
  •  
  • One Battle After Another – Cassandra Kulukundis (c-4/17, n-4/17) — Lock —
  • Marty Supreme – Jennifer Venditti (c-4/17, n-1/11) — Good —
  • Hamnet – Nina Gold (c-4/17, n-5/19) — Good —
  • Frankenstein – Robin D. Cook (c-4/17, n-4/17) — Borderline —
  •  
  • Sentimental Value – Yngvill Kolset Haga, Avy Kaufman (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • The Secret Agent – Gabriel Domingues (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • Weapons – Allison Jones (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • Wicked: For Good – Tiffany Little Canfield, Bernard Telsey (c-4/17) — Doubtful —
  • Sirât – TBD (c-4/17) — Doubtful —

Locks & Near Locks: Sinners, One Battle After Another

Goods: Marty Supreme, Hamnet

Borderline/Predicted: Frankenstein

Borderline/Not Predicted: Sentimental Value, The Secret Agent, Weapons, Wicked: For Good, Sirât

In Summary: This being a new category, it’s hard to know how voters will approach it. Thankfully, this will be voted on by casting directors so we’ll better understand after the first couple of years. As such, many of our selections are pure conjecture. Thankfully, they issued a shortlist we can parse for clues. Sinners and One Battle are certain. Large casts of new and prominent actors who have been praised for their casting. Marty Supreme and Hamnet went to a lot of trouble to cast knowns and unknowns as well with people like Odessa A’zion and Jacobi Jupe more than justifying their acclaim. That leaves a fifth slot that I think could honestly go any direction. Frankenstein seems like a safe bet and that’s why I’m not sure it will make it through. Any of the three non-English language options on the list could be picked as could Wicked: For Good for its diversity. Even Weapons has a chance. With all that out of the way, ultimately I think Frankenstein will barely edge out the others for a nomination but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sentimental Value to push it out.

Best Actor

My Predictions:

  • Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme (c-4/17, n-4/17, o-1/11) — Lock —
  •  
  • Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another (c-4/17, n-4/17) — Lock —
  • Michael B. Jordan – Sinners (c-4/17, n-6/17) — Near Lock —
  • Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent (c-11/18, n-12/14) — Good —
  • Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon (c-4/17, n-1/20) — Borderline —
  •  
  • Joel Edgerton – Train Dreams (c-11/18) — Borderline —
  • Jesse Plemons – Bugonia (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • Lee Byung-hun – No Other Choice (c-12/14) — Borderline —
  • Dwayne Johnson – The Smashing Machine (c-4/17) — Doubtful —
  • Jeremy Allen White – Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (c-4/17) — Doubtful —
  • Oscar Isaac – Frankenstein (c-4/17) — Doubtful —

Locks & Near Locks: Timothée Chalamet, Leonardo DiCaprio, Michael B. Jordan

Goods: Wagner Moura

Borderline/Predicted: Ethan Hawke

Borderline/Not Predicted: Joel Edgerton, Jesse Plemons, Lee Byung-hun

In Summary: There’s no chance that Chalamet, DiCaprio, or Jordan miss the list and after Moura’s win at the Golden Globes, I doubt he’s going to fail to secure a nomination either. That leaves one spot and the conventional wisdom would be Ethan Hawke in the final slot. He’s gotten the most attention of the rest this year. That said, Edgerton could make the list if his film scores a Best Picture nomination. Plemons made that surprise SAG appearance and Lee Byung-hun has a smattering of critical praise to bolster his candidacy. Ultimately, I think the fifth slot is Hawke’s to lose.

Best Directing

My Predictions:

  • One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson (c-4/17, n-9/22, o-10/19) — Lock —
  •  
  • Sinners – Ryan Coogler (c-4/17, n-12/14) — Near Lock —
  • Hamnet – Chloé Zhao (c-4/17, n-5/19) — Near Lock —
  • Marty Supreme – Josh Safdie (c-4/17, n-12/14) — Good —
  • Sentimental Value – Joachim Trier (c-4/17, n-12/14) — Borderline —
  •  
  • Frankenstein – Guillermo del Toro (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • It Was Just an Accident – Jafar Panahi (c-9/22) — Borderline —
  • Bugonia – Yorgos Lanthimos (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • No Other Choice – Park Chan-wook (c-12/14) — Borderline —
  • Train Dreams – Clint Bentley (c-11/18) — Borderline —
  • The Secret Agent – Kleber Mendonça Filho (c-12/14) — Borderline —
  • The Voice of Hind Rajab – Kaouther Ben Hania (c-9/22) — Borderline —
  • Avatar: Fire and Ash – James Cameron (c-4/17) — Doubtful —
  • Sirât – Oliver Laxe (c-12/14) — Doubtful —
  • Testament of Ann Lee – Mona Fastvold (c-9/22) — Doubtful —

Locks & Near Locks: Paul Thomas Anderson, Ryan Coogler, Chloé Zhao

Goods: Josh Safdie

Borderline/Predicted: Joachim Trier

Borderline/Not Predicted: Guillermo del Toro, Jafar Panahi, Yorgos Lanthimos, Park Chan-wook, Clint Bentley, Kleber Mendonca Filho, Kaouther Ben Hania

In Summary: It’s often a safe bet to take the five nominees at the DGA and carry them over here, swapping in one non-American name to the list. That’s what I’ve done here. There’s little likelihood of Anderson, Coogler, or Zhao missing the boat and Safdie seems pretty safe as well. It’s that fifth slot where things get interesting. Guillermo del Toro pulled it off at the DGA but that left two major international directors off the list and that doesn’t quite sit right. With Sentimental Value sure to pick up several nominations and to be the most nominated non-English film on the list this year, I think Joachim Trier replaces del Toro. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see del Toro make the list and have Safdie fail to make the cut.

Beyond Trier and del Toro, Jafar Panahi could also be the foreign director in the list. That would match up with other precursors but as much as the DGA supports its filmmakers, they aren’t ones for making political statements. There was enough time after Panahi’s “conviction” in Iran for voters to calm down about his potential inclusion, unlike several critics groups. Still, you can’t quite count him out. Lanthimos, Park, Bentley, Mendonca Filho, and Ben Hania could also make an appearance but I suspect their films are just enough on the outside to miss the list from a very insider-heavy group.

Best Film Editing

My Predictions:

  • One Battle After Another – Andy Jurgensen (c-4/17, n-4/17, o-12/14) — Lock —
  •  
  • Sinners – Michael P. Shawver (c-4/17, n-11/16) — Lock —
  • F1 – Stephen Mirrione (c-4/17, n-4/17) — Near Lock —
  • Marty Supreme – Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie (c-4/17, n-12/14) — Borderline —
  • Hamnet – Affonso Gonçalves, Chloé Zhao (c-4/17, n-1/20) — Borderline —
  •  
  • Frankenstein – Evan Schiff (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • Sentimental Value – Olivier Bugge Coutté (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • The Secret Agent – Matheus Alves, Tomaz Alves Souza (c-12/14) — Borderline —
  • Weapons – Joe Murphy (c-1/19) — Borderline —
  • Bugonia – Yorgos Mavropsaridis (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • A House of Dynamite – Kirk Baxter (c-1/19) — Borderline —
  • No Other Choice – Kim Ho-bin, Kim Sang-beom (c-12/14) — Borderline —
  • Train Dreams – Parker Laramie (c-11/18) — Doubtful —
  • Testament of Ann Lee – Sofía Subercaseaux (c-9/22) — Doubtful —
  • The Voice of Hind Rajab – Qutaiba Barhamji, Kaouther Ben Hania, Maxime Mathis (c-9/22) — Doubtful —
  • Wicked: For Good – Myron Kerstein (c-4/17) — Doubtful —

Locks & Near Locks: One Battle, Sinners, F1

Goods: None

Borderline/Predicted: Marty Supreme, Hamnet

Borderline/Not Predicted: Frankenstein, Sentimental Value, The Secret Agent, Weapons, Bugonia, A House of Dynamite, No Other Choice.

In Summary: You’ll hear this a lot today (you already have) but Sinners and One Battle are sure things. F1 also seems poised for a nomination. That leaves two slots. One thing you have to understand about the Film Editing category is that it is one of the most accurate precursors to a Best Picture win there is. 95% of the time, if a film doesn’t earn a Film Editing nomination, it cannot win Best Picture. That’s why One Battle, Sinners, Marty, and Hamnet all seem safe bets. These are the buzziest and most likely Best Picture winners in the bunch. F1 is that rare outsider that has no chance at Best Picture (probably won’t even get nominated) that the Academy’s editors often pick but otherwise, these are their top choices for Best Picture as well.

Frankenstein, Sentimental Value, The Secret Agent, and Bugonia are all likely Best Picture nominees, which explains their placement. Weapons is an outside Best Picture contender so it earns its spot here, though I don’t imagine a nomination in this category is likely either. Any surprise outside of these aforementioned titles will be genuinely shocking.

Best Documentary Feature

My Predictions:

  • The Perfect Neighbor (c-11/21, n-12/16, o-12/16)
  •  
  • 2000 Meters to Andriivka (c-11/21, n-1/11)
  • Come See Me in the Good Light (c-11/21, n-12/16)
  • Cover-Up (c-11/21, n-12/16)
  • My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (c-11/21, n-12/16)
  •  
  • The Alabama Solution (c-11/21)
  • Apocalypse in the Tropics (c-11/21)
  • Coexistence, My Ass! (c-11/21)
  • Cutting through Rocks (c-11/21)
  • Folktales (c-11/21)
  • Holding Liat (c-11/21)
  • Mistress Dispeller (c-11/21)
  • Mr. Nobody against Putin (c-11/21)
  • Seeds (c-11/21)
  • Yanuni (c-11/21)

General Commentary: The Academy’s members who see the documentary shortlist nominees rarely make expected choices. That’s why I don’t label them with “borderline,” descriptors because they are all borderline. The five listed here have shown up consistently in the precursors alongside The Alabama Solution, Apocalypse in the Tropics, and Mr. Nobody against Putin. Any one of these titles could make the list as well. It will just be interesting to see which of the five predictions I made gets left off the list.

Best Production Design

My Predictions:

  • Frankenstein – Tamara Deverell; Shane Vieau (c-4/17, n-4/17, o-4/17) — Lock —
  •  
  • Sinners – Hannah Beachler; Monique Champagne (c-4/17, n-12/14) — Near Lock —
  • Hamnet – Fiona Crombie; Ruthie Falconer (c-4/17, n-5/19) — Good —
  • Wicked: For Good – Nathan Crowley; Lee Sandales (c-4/17, n-4/17) — Borderline —
  • The Fantastic Four: First Steps – Kasra Farahani; Jille Azis (c-4/17, n-7/20) — Borderline —
  •  
  • Avatar: Fire and Ash – Dylan Cole, Ben Procter; Vanessa Cole (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • Marty Supreme – Jack Fisk; Adam Willis (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • Testament of Ann Lee – Sam Bader; Lauren Doss, Mercédesz Nagyváradi (c-9/22) — Borderline —
  • The Phoenician Scheme – Adam Stockhausen; Anna Pinnock (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • Train Dreams – Alexandra Schaller; Melisa Jusufi (c-11/18) — Doubtful —
  • Kiss of the Spider Woman – Scott Chambliss; Andrew Baseman (c-4/17) — Doubtful —
  • Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale – Donal Woods; Linda Wilson (c-4/17) — Doubtful —

Locks & Near Locks: Frankenstein, Sinners

Goods: Hamnet

Borderline/Predicted: Wicked: For Good, The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Borderline/Not Predicted: Avatar: Fire and Ash, Marty Supreme, Testament of Ann Lee, The Phoenician Scheme

In Summary: One of the few places you won’t see One Battle After Another. Sinners for sure. Frankenstein, the likely winner, absolutely. Hamnet also seems like a fairly safe bet. Beyond that, there are few guarantees. Wicked: For Good underperformed this year but it’s the kind of film that should have no problem securing this nomination, though there’s always room for doubt. That leaves the fifth slot and I’m not at all sure about The Fantastic Four. For production design, it certainly was a great period/sci-fi blend that voters in the Academy should be willing to recognize. Unfortunately, it’s still part of the Marvel Cinematic Universe and those films still struggle for Oscar recognition.

Avatar: Fire and Ash would seem like the most likely to upset and I wouldn’t see an issue with that. Marty Supreme and Testament of Ann Lee are also period enough to earn some recognition though neither is particularly sure of a nomination and with nothing really seeming like a guarantee, that’s why I fell back to Fantastic Four. I just don’t think there are sufficient other choices to supplant it.

Best Original Song

My Predictions:

  • I Lied to You – Sinners (c-12/16, n-12/16, o-12/16) — Lock —
  •  
  • Golden – KPop Demon Hunters (c-12/16, n-12/16) — Near Lock —
  • Dear Me – Diane Warren: Relentless (c-12/16, n-12/16) — Good —
  • The Girl in the Bubble – Wicked: For Good (c-12/16, n-12/16) — Borderline —
  • Train Dreams – Train Dreams (c-12/16, n-1/20) — Borderline —
  •  
  • No Place Like Home – Wicked: For Good (c-12/16) — Borderline —
  • Last Time (I Seen the Sun) – Sinners (c-12/16) — Borderline —
  • Dream As One – Avatar: Fire and Ash (c-12/16) — Borderline —
  • Highest 2 Lowest – Highest 2 Lowest (c-12/16) — Borderline —
  • As Alive As You Need Me to Be – Tron: Ares (c-12/16) — Borderline —
  • Drive – F1 (c-12/16) — Borderline —
  • Salt Them Sour Then Sweet – Come See Me in the Good Light (c-12/16) — Doubtful —
  • Our Love – The Ballad of Wallis Island (c-12/16) — Doubtful —
  • Dying to Live – Billy Idol Should Be Dead (c-12/16) — Doubtful —
  • Sweet Dreams of Joy – Viva Verdi! (c-12/16) — Doubtful —

Locks & Near Locks: I Lied to You, Golden

Goods: Dear Me

Borderline/Predicted: The Girl in the Bubble, Train Dreams

Borderline/Not Predicted: No Place Like Home, Last Time, Dream As One, Highest 2 Lowest, As Alive As You Need Me to Be

In Summary: One never quite knows how the Academy’s music branch will vote. The one thing we know for sure is that at least one track from a documentary will be selected and at least one song written by Dianne Warren will also make an appearance, thus Dear Me sits in a “good” position for both even if it has not been among the most talked about songs of the year. I Lied to You and Golden were, which is why they are situated as they are. The Girl in the Bubble should be able to overcome the anti-Wicked: For Good trendlines this season. Finish things off with an atypical nominee like Train Dreams and it seems like a pretty well established list.

Still, don’t count out No Place Like Home or Last Time. While two songs from the same film hasn’t been a common occurrence lately, it’s still possible. The Golden Globe nominees and a few of the others could also have some chance but ultimately, I think the top five on my list will make it through with perhaps one surprising change to the roster.

Best Sound

My Predictions:

  • Frankenstein (c-4/17, n-4/17, o-4/17) — Good —
  •  
  • F1 (c-4/17, n-6/17) — Near Lock —
  • Sinners (c-12/16, n-1/11) — Good —
  • One Battle After Another (c-12/14, n-1/20) — Borderline —
  • Sirât (c-12/14, n-1/20) — Borderline —
  •  
  • Avatar: Fire and Ash (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • Superman (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • Wicked: For Good (c-4/17) — Borderline —

Locks & Near Locks: F1

Goods: Frankenstein, Sinners

Borderline/Predicted: One Battle After Another, Sirât

Borderline/Not Predicted: Avatar: Fire and Ash, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Superman, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, Wicked: For Good

In Summary: With the Cinema Audio Society announcing nominations today and the Motion Picture Sound Editors last week, we have a good idea what films are likely to be nominated. Four titles are shared between the two groups. Frankenstein, F1, Sinners, and One Battle After Another. The latter of these four is the only one I can’t quite understand why it’s getting the acclaim it has for its sound design. Regardless, those showing up with both groups means they are very likely among the final selections. For the fifth slot, it’s a surprising choice to some but Sirât was shortlisted and has received quite a lot of acclaim for its sound design. As such, the film seems like a solid fifth slot finisher despite not being recognized in the primary categories from CAS and MPSE. Avatar: Fire and Ash would have seemed like a sure thing but it didn’t show up in either place and that’s a bit surprising all things considered. As such, I have to put it on the outside looking in. Mission: Impossible did make the CAS list and that gets it pushed a bit higher and I could certainly see it taking the fifth slot. Then again, any of the remaining three are also possibilities.

Best Cinematography

My Predictions:

  • Sinners – Autumn Durald Arkapaw (c-4/17, n-12/14, o-12/14) — Lock —
  •  
  • Train Dreams – Adolpho Veloso (c-11/18, n-12/14) — Near Lock —
  • Frankenstein – Dan Laustsen (c-4/17, n-4/17) — Borderline —
  • Hamnet – Lukasz Zal (c-4/17, n-5/19) — Borderline —
  • One Battle After Another – Michael Bauman (c-4/17, n-9/22) — Borderline —
  •  
  • Bugonia – Robbie Ryan (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • F1 – Claudio Miranda (c-12/16) — Borderline —
  • Marty Supreme – Darius Khondji (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • Nouvelle Vague – David Chambille (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • Sirât – Mauro Herce (c-12/16) — Borderline —
  • Wicked: For Good – Alice Brooks (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • Sound of Falling – Fabian Gamper (c-12/16) — Borderline —
  • Sentimental Value – Kasper Tuxen Andersen (c-12/16) — Borderline —
  • Die My Love – Seamus McGarvey (c-12/16) — Borderline —
  • Ballad of a Small Player – James Friend (c-12/16) — Doubtful —
  • Song Sung Blue – Amy Vincent (c-12/16) — Doubtful —

Locks & Near Locks: Sinners, Train Dreams

Goods: None

Borderline/Predicted: Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another

Borderline/Not Predicted: Bugonia, F1, Marty Supreme, Nouvelle Vague, Sirât, Wicked: For Good, Sound of Falling, Sentimental Value, Die My Love

In Summary: Apart from two titles I would be shocked to see on the final list, any of the rest could easily pull off a nomination despite being lower ranked on the list than other titles. Let’s start with the assured: Sinners and Train Dreams. Both films have earned plenty of praise for their photography. I’d be shocked to see either miss. Frankenstein, Hamnet, and One Battle are also common citations and thus why they end up filling out the list. That said, I could see Bugonia, F1, Marty, Nouvelle Vague, and Sirât all making the cut as well. In the end, I wouldn’t be surprised for a different slate but I also wouldn’t be surprised if these are the final five. Hamnet is the only one of my five predictions not on the ASC list, which went to Marty Supreme. That said, Darius Khondji is one of those legends the ASC recognizes that the Academy doesn’t, so don’t be surprised if he’s not a nominee.

Best Actress

My Predictions:

  • Jessie Buckley – Hamnet (c-4/17, n-9/22, o-1/20) — Lock —
  •  
  • Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (c-11/18, n-12/14) — Good —
  • Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value (c-4/17, n-9/22) — Borderline —
  • Emma Stone – Bugonia (c-4/17, n-9/22) — Borderline —
  • Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue (c-1/19, n-1/20) — Borderline —
  •  
  • Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another (c-12/14) — Borderline —
  • Amanda Seyfried – Testament of Ann Lee (c-9/22) — Borderline —
  • Jennifer Lawrence – Die My Love (c-9/22) — Borderline —
  • Cynthia Erivo – Wicked: For Good (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • Tessa Thompson – Hedda (c-12/14) — Doubtful —
  • Lucy Liu – Rosemead (c-4/17) — Doubtful —

Locks & Near Locks: Jessie Buckley

Goods: Rose Byrne

Borderline/Predicted: Renate Reinsve, Emma Stone, Kate Hudson

Borderline/Not Predicted: Chase Infiniti, Amanda Seyfried, Jennifer Lawrence, Cynthia Erivo

In Summary: If you don’t have Jessie Buckley already slotted as the winner this year, you’re probably hoping for another outcome. She might have run neck-and-neck with Rose Byrne for precursors but the Academy will absolutely fall all over itself to recognize the subtle power of her performance in Hamnet. Byrne will definitely be nominated but none of the other potential nominees are guaranteed a slot better yet have a chance of winning. Reinsve and Stone have managed to pick up just enough acclaim this season to slot into the third and fourth slots in the Best Actress slate. That fifth slot, though. That one’s going to be the controversial one and there are two reasons why.

I have slotted Kate Hudson in for the fifth slot based on the surprise SAG selection. It’s disability porn and has already gotten disability advocates up in arms for its simplistic and unrealistic portrayal of disability. However, the reason they are concerned is because it’s the kind of sympathetic performance that the Academy has a tendency to award even when it should stay as far away it as possible. The second reason is that she will likely be the fifth white woman on the list. With Chase Infiniti being a fifth slot contender, there could be quite the buzz about how yet another mediocre white woman in a “traditional” role stole the slot of a more deserving nominee and I can’t say they would be wrong. Sure, it’s not another whisper campaign like the one that pulled in Andrea Riseborough for disdain but it’s similar enough in spirit to be a real threat.

I’m hoping wiser heads will prevail and someone like Infini, Erivo, or Tessa Thompson might manage to pick up that fifth slot but if it isn’t Hudson, it could be Infiniti but is just as likely to be Amanda Seyfried or Jennifer Lawrence. That would at least quell some concerns because those women have delivered acclaimed performances while Hudson has not.

Best Visual Effects

My Predictions:

  • Avatar: Fire and Ash (c-4/17, n-4/17, o-12/14) — Lock —
  •  
  • Frankenstein (c-4/17, n-4/17) — Borderline —
  • F1 (c-12/16, n-1/13) — Borderline —
  • The Lost Bus (c-12/16, n-1/13) — Borderline —
  • Sinners (c-12/16, n-1/20) — Borderline —
  •  
  • Superman (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • Tron: Ares (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • Jurassic World Rebirth (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • Wicked: For Good (c-4/17) — Borderline —
  • The Electric State (c-12/16) — Doubtful —

Locks & Near Locks: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Goods: None

Borderline/Predicted: Frankenstein, F1, The Lost Bus, Sinners

Borderline/Not Predicted: Superman, Tron: Ares, Jurassic World: Rebirth, Wicked: For Good

In Summary: Avatar is the guaranteed winner so a guaranteed nomination is expected. The rest of the slate is fluid enough that I could see nearly any other contender getting a nomination. Frankenstein and F1 have earned plenty of praise and seem like solid contenders. I’m going out on a limb for the fourth slot and giving it to The Lost Bus. Lost Bus managed to secured Visual Effects Society nominations, including one in the top category. That will give it the edge over Sinners. I’m reticent to put Sinners on the list since it has so few visual effects on display but ultimately, I suspect it will eke out a nomination sliding Superman into sixth but that’s no guarantee and Sinners is just as likely to miss. Still, any of these could likely earn a nomination, though if there’s one title I’d say is least likely, it’s The Electric State.

Best Picture

My Predictions:

  • One Battle After Another – Warner Bros. (dir. Paul Thomas Anderson) (c-4/17, n-4/17, o-10/19) — Lock —
  •  
  • Sinners – Warner Bros. (dir. Ryan Coogler) (c-4/17, n-5/19) — Lock —
  • Marty Supreme – A24 (dir. Josh Safdie) (c-4/17, n-11/16) — Near Lock —
  • Hamnet – Focus Features (dir. Chloé Zhao) (c-4/17, n-5/19) — Near Lock —
  • Sentimental Value – Neon (dir. Joachim Trier) (c-4/17, n-6/17) — Good —
  • The Secret Agent – Neon (dir. Kleber Mendonça Filho) (c-12/14, n-12/14) — Borderline —
  • Bugonia – Focus (dir. Yorgos Lanthimos) (c-4/17, n-1/11) — Borderline —
  • Frankenstein – Netflix (dir. Guillermo del Toro) (c-4/17, n-4/17) — Borderline —
  • It Was Just an Accident – Neon (dir. Jafar Panahi) (c-9/22, n-11/16) — Borderline —
  • Train Dreams – Netflix (dir. Clint Bentley) (c-11/18, n-12/14) — Borderline —
  •  
  • No Other Choice – Neon (dir. Park Chan-wook) (c-12/14) — Borderline —
  • Weapons – Warner Bros. (dir. Zach Cregger) (c-1/19) — Borderline —
  • The Voice of Hind Rajab – WILLA (dir. Kaouther Ben Hania) (c-9/22) — Borderline —
  • Testament of Ann Lee – Searchlight (dir. Mona Fastvold) (c-9/22) — Borderline —
  • Sirât – Neon (dir. Oliver Laxe) (c-12/14) — Borderline —
  • Avatar: Fire and Ash – 20th Century (dir. James Cameron) (c-4/17) — Doubtful —
  • Sorry, Baby – A24 (dir. Eva Victor) (c-1/19) — Doubtful —
  • Wicked: For Good – Universal (dir. Jon M. Chu) (c-4/17) — Doubtful —

Locks & Near Locks: One Battle After Another, Sinners, Marty Supreme, Hamnet

Goods: Sentimental Value

Borderline/Predicted: The Secret Agent, Bugonia, Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident, Train Dreams

Borderline/Not Predicted: No Other Choice, Weapons, The Voice of Hind Rajab, The Testament of Ann Lee, Sirat

In Summary: And now we have the final category of the day: Best Picture. It’s been a rather interesting year. Sinners started out strong and held out all year while most of its competitors failed to materialize until the end of the year when One Battle After Another became the dominant force. As such, those two films are assured nominations above all others. The same could be said of Marty Supreme and Hamnet and, to a lesser extent, Sentimental Value. These are the five titles I would be confident enough to say would be the Best Picture nominees back in the days of five nominations. But there are ten and the remaining five slots seem to fill out pretty quickly. The Secret Agent, Bugonia, Frankenstein, and It Was Just an Accident seem like sure fits for those final five slots. It Was Just an Accident is the one I’m least assured on but at this point, it has a better shot than Train Dreams.

Train Dreams was bolstered by major critical acclaim but has been underperforming in recent weeks and there’s no assurance it will make the final spot. That said, there aren’t many good options to fill in instead. No Other Choice, Weapons, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Testament of Ann Lee, and Sirât all have some positives that could lead them to a selection but they also have a few negatives. As such, while I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of them beat out It Was Just an Accident, Train Dreams, or even Frankenstein, I’m doubtful they can quite pull it off. I’m also going to throw out a title that I doubt will be nominated but also wouldn’t be entirely left field. Sorry, Baby. That film got a major shoutout from Julia Roberts at the Globes and with Oscar voting incomplete at that point, I wouldn’t be surprised for it to barely skip past some of these more well-heeled titles to a tenth spot on the list. You will know if that’s even a possibility if it secures an Original Screenplay nomination, hardly a guarantee at this point.

And that’s everything for this year. I hope you enjoy. It’s been a crazy year, so let’s see how we do tomorrow.

If you want to follow along at home, below is a selection grid where you check off the nominees as they are announced.

This will be a test for the capabilities of what I can create. If it works great, please let me know.

Group 1 (alphabetical order):

Best Supporting Actor










Best Supporting Actress









Best Animated Short Film















Best Costume Design












Best Live Action Short Film















Best Makeup & Hairstyling










Best Original Score




















Best Original Screenplay












Best Adapted Screenplay







Group 2 (alphabetical order, except Picture):

Best Actor











Best Actress











Best Animated Feature



































Best Casting










Best Cinematography
















Best Directing















Best Documentary Feature















Best Documentary Short Subject















Best Film Editing
















Best International Feature Film















Best Original Song















Best Production Design












Best Sound










Best Visual Effects










Best Picture


















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