Having significantly less influence over this year’s Oscar winners, with perhaps one exception, these awards are largely just going to be for the fun of it. We’ll find out the winners on Sunday.

SPIRIT AWARDS

Legend:

Winner Predictions:
Wesley Lovell Pete Patrick Thomas LaTourrette

Runner-Up Predictions:
Wesley Lovell Pete Patrick Thomas LaTourrette

Best Feature

Peter Hujar’s Day Nil
The Plague Nil
Sorry, Baby WL TL
Train Dreams WL PP TL
Twinless PP

Wesley Lovell: Oscar nominee Train Dreams should be able to pull out a victory, though Sorry, Baby and Twinless could benefit from a groundswell of support since this group no longer seems to feel compelled to honor the Oscar nominee(s) in the race.
Pete Patrick: Train Dreams, which is the only Best Picture Oscar nominee in the running seems a safe bet with Twinless as likely as any to pull a surprise win.
Thomas La Tourrette: The well-reviewed and well-liked Train Dreams should be the winner.

Best Director

Clint Bentley – Train Dreams WL PP TL
Mary Bronstein – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You PP
Lloyd Lee Choi – Lucky Lu Nil
Ira Sachs – Peter Hujar’s Day Nil
Eva Victor – Sorry, Baby WL TL

Wesley Lovell: No Oscar nominees here, though two of the films listed have other Oscar nominations. Bentley seems the most likely to duplicate a Best Feature win in Best Director but Eva Victor could get a welcome to the club win.
Pete Patrick: Any of the nominees are possible but I’d bet on Clint Bentley winning for Train Dreams over Mary Bronstin for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Thomas La Tourrette: I think Clint Bentley easily wins for Train Dreams.

Best Lead Performance

Everett Blunck – The Plague Nil
Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You WL PP TL
Kathleen Chalfant – Familiar Touch PP
Chang Chen – Lucky Lu Nil
Joel Edgerton – Train Dreams WL TL
Dylan O’Brien – Twinless Nil
Keke Palmer – One of Them Days Nil
Théodore Pellerin – Lurker Nil
Tessa Thompson – Hedda Nil
Ben Whishaw – Peter Hujar’s Day Nil

Wesley Lovell: There is one Oscar nominee on the list: Rose Byrne. I can’t imagine she would lose even with a relatively stacked list like this. Joel Edgerton was probably closest to getting a nomination out of the rest of these, so he’s my second-place selection.
Pete Patrick: These intersex nominations are as difficult to predict as they are blatantly unfair.
Thomas La Tourrette: Rose Byrne has the edge over the quiet performance of Joel Edgerton.

Best Supporting Performance

Naomi Ackie – Sorry, Baby TL
Zoey Deutch – Nouvelle Vague WL
Kirsten Dunst – Roofman Nil
Rebecca Hall – Peter Hujar’s Day PP
Nina Hoss – Hedda WL PP TL
Jane Levy – A Little Prayer Nil
Archie Madekwe – Lurker Nil
Kali Reis – Rebuilding Nil
Jacob Tremblay – Sovereign Nil
Haiepng Xu – Blue Sun Palace Nil

Wesley Lovell: Not a single Oscar nominee in this one. It’s strange considering how well Oscar contenders have done in recent years that this would be a largly Oscar-less bunch of nominees. That leaves us with a real horse race. Obviously any one of these could win but of them all, Nina Hoss got the most acclaim throughout awards season so that’s where I’m leaning but Zoey Deutch as legendary Jean Seberg could be the best runner-up contender.
Pete Patrick: Let’s give the supporting award to one of the ladies as well.
Thomas La Tourrette: Nina Hoss probably had the best reviews of this group, but I could see Naomi Ackie winning.

Best Screenplay

A Little Prayer Nil
Sorry, Baby WL PP TL
Sovereign Nil
Splitsville Nil
Twinless WL PP TL

Wesley Lovell: No Oscar nominees again but Sorry, Baby was the most acclaimed of the bunch and is likely to come out on top (more likely for Eva Victor to get her coming out trophy in this category rather than directing). Of course, Twinless also got plenty of acclaim so who knows for sure.
Pete Patrick: I’m going to go with Twinless over Sorry, Baby.
Thomas La Tourrette: Sorry, Baby has gotten the most press and best reviews of these films, so I think it will easily win.

Best Editing

Eephus PP
Good Boy WL
Splitsville Nil
The Testament of Ann Lee TL
Warfare WL PP TL

Wesley Lovell: No Oscar nominees again and of these, Warfare seems to be the most heavily edited but Good Boy, Eephus, and Testament of Ann Lee are also possible.
Pete Patrick: Euphus has to win something.
Thomas La Tourrette: The battle film Warfare will get this award.

Best Cinematography

Blue Sun Palace Nil
Dust Bunny Nil
Peter Hujar’s Day Nil
Train Dreams WL PP TL
Warfare WL PP TL

Wesley Lovell: Oscar nominee Train Dreams is unlikely to face stiff competition from this batch.
Pete Patrick: Train Dreams should walk away with this.
Thomas La Tourrette: It would be surprising if anything but Train Dreams wins.

John Cassavetes Award

Nil
The Baltimorons WL TL
Boys Go to Jupiter Nil
Eephus WL PP
Esta Island (This Island) Nil
Familiar Touch PP TL

Wesley Lovell: Eephus was the most acclaimed of this bunch but The Baltimorons seems more like a Spirit Award winner than any of the others.
Pete Patrick: Familiar Touch should be hard to beat but if any film can do so it’s likely to be Euphus.
Thomas La Tourrette: From what I’ve read, Familiar Touch could be the winner with a good performance by Kathleen Chalfant.

Best International Film

All That’s Left of You Nil
On Becoming a Guinea Fowl Nil
A Poet Nil
The Secret Agent WL PP TL
Sirāt WL PP TL

Wesley Lovell: Two Oscar nominees and it probably won’t be much of a competition for The Secret Agent.
Pete Patrick: Brazil’s The Secret Agent should win this over Spain’s Sirat.
Thomas La Tourrette: The Secret Agent should have an easy win here, with only Sirat having a chance to upset.

Best Documentary

Come See Me in the Good Light WL TL
Endless Cookie PP
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow Nil
The Perfect Neighbor WL PP TL
The Tale of Silyan Nil

Wesley Lovell: Two Oscar nominees and a shortlister will vie for this award. The Perfect Neighbor had the most acclaim and is heading towards an Oscar victory so I imagine it will triumph but watch out for .
Pete Patrick: The Perfect Neighbor is the one with the greatest exposure making it a likely winner.
Thomas La Tourrette: The Oscar front runner, The Perfect Neighbor, should win here.

Best First Feature

Blue Sun Palace Nil
Dust Bunny Nil
East of Wall TL
Lurker WL PP TL
One of Them Days WL PP

Wesley Lovell: None of these seem likely winners, so I’ve hedged my bets with the acclaimed Lurker over the mainstream One of Them Days.
Pete Patrick: Lurker seems to be in the winner position with One of Them Days an outside possibility.
Thomas La Tourrette: East of Wall sounds like the type of film that wins this award.

Best Breakthrough Performance

Liz Larsen – The Baltimorons WL PP
Kayo Martin – The Plague PP TL
Misha Osherovich – She’s the He Nil
Sza – One of Them Days WL
Tabatha Zimiga – East of Wall TL

Wesley Lovell: I would not be surprised to see Sza win this but Liz Larsen could also take the victory. That said, any of these could possibly contend.
Pete Patrick: It seems a bit silly to give a breakthrough award to 67-year-old Broadway veteran Liz Larsen, but why not?
Thomas La Tourrette: I could see Tabitha Zimiga winning this, but it could go to any of them.

Best First Screenplay

Blue Sun Palace Nil
Friendship Nil
Lurker WL PP TL
One of Them Days WL PP
Outerlands TL

Wesley Lovell: Like in the other category, I’m going Lurker over One of Them Days.
Pete Patrick: This one should be another prize for Lurker over One of Them Days.
Thomas La Tourrette: Lurker seems like the film to beat.