With the VES, you can usually see a sweep coming. It’s very likely to go to one film alone but any weakness shown by said film could suggest a shift in interests at the Oscars.

VISUAL EFFECTS SOCIETY AWARDS

Legend:

Winner Predictions:
Wesley Lovell Pete Patrick Thomas LaTourrette

Runner-Up Predictions:
Wesley Lovell Pete Patrick Thomas LaTourrette

Best Visual Effects in a Photoreal Feature

Avatar: Fire and Ash WL PP TL
F1 PP
How to Train Your Dragon Nil
Jurassic World: Rebirth TL
The Lost Bus WL

Wesley Lovell: Avatar is a fait accompli. Whether the rest of the awards make that obvious or not is the open question.
Pete Patrick: Avatar: Fire and Ash should win this easily.
Thomas La Tourrette: Avatar has this in the bag.

Best Supporting Visual Effects in a Photoreal Feature

After the Hunt Nil
Dongji Rescue Nil
A House of Dyanmite WL PP
Sinners WL PP TL
Warfare TL

Wesley Lovell: Not a lot here that could win with Sinners, an Oscar nominee for Best Visual Effects (the only one in this list), being the most likely.
Pete Patrick: Should be A House of Dynamtie as the supporting visual effects were the most interesting thing about the film.
Thomas La Tourrette: Sinners being the only film here with an Oscar nomination should prevail.

Best Animation in an Animated Feature

The Bad Guys 2 Nil
Elio WL
In Your Dreams Nil
KPop Demon Hunters WL PP TL
Zootopia 2 PP TL

Wesley Lovell: Although KPop Demon Hunters is dominant this season, the VES won’t likely care and could go a different direction.
Pete Patrick: This is likely to go to the most rewarded animated feature of the year – KPop Demon Hunters.  Zootopia 2 is probably a distant second in the race.
Thomas La Tourrette: KPop is such a phenomenon that it should win this easily.

Best Character in a Photoreal Feature

Krypto the Superdog – Superman TL
Queen Malgosha – A Minecraft Movie Nil
Stitch – Lilo & Stitch WL PP
Varang: Leader of the Ash Clan – Avatar: Fire and Ash WL PP TL

Wesley Lovell: Avatar: Fire and Ash is likely to take this one in a walk.

Best Character in an Animated Feature

Gary De’Snake – Zootopia 2 TL
Glordon – Elio Nil
Ooooo the Liquid Supercomputer – Elio WL PP TL
Rumi – KPop Demon Hunters WL PP

Wesley Lovell: It’s hard to decide which will win but I’d go for the one that has the most and effects-empowered intriguing name.

Best CG Cinematography

Avatar: Fire and Ash WL PP TL
KPop Demon Hunters PP
Tron: Ares WL TL
Zootopia 2 Nil

Wesley Lovell: Another win for Avatar: Fire and Ash it’s not entirely live action but is more so than two of the nominees, which are actual animation.

Best Compositing & Lighting in a Photoreal Feature

Bridgehead Industrial City – Avatar: Fire and Ash WL PP TL
Fights and Metropolis City Destruction – Superman Nil
Modern Race & POV Footage – F1 PP
The Wind Traders, Bridgehead, Rivers and Ocean – Avatar: Fire and Ashe WL TL

Wesley Lovell: With the amount of detail involved in the Wind Traders, Bridgehead, Rivers, and Oceans, I’d say they are likely to take the compositing prize.

Best Effects Simulations in an Photoreal Feature

Escape from Hell – The Lost Bus WL
Metropolis City Destruction – Superman PP
Simulating Pandora – Avatar: Fire and Ash WL PP TL
Together TL

Wesley Lovell: While “Simulating Pandora” has the category title in its name, I could imagine the fire of The Lost Bus being more intriguing to these voters (since there’s more fire in that film than in Avatar.

Best Effects Simulations in an Animated Feature

The Bad Guys 2 Nil
In Your Dreams Nil
KPop Demon Hunters WL PP TL
Zootopia 2 WL PP TL

Wesley Lovell: There are plenty of effects in KPop so I give it the edge but any of the others could also take the trophy.

Best Created Environment in a Photoreal Feature

The Bodyweb – The Gorge Nil
Bridgehead Industrial City – Avatar: Fire and Ash WL PP TL
Dillinger’s Grid City – Tron: Ares TL
Feather River Canyon by the Pulga Bridge – The Lost Bus Nil
The Wildfires of Roe Road – The Lost Bus WL PP

Wesley Lovell: With The Lost Bus possibly splitting, the Bridgehead Industrial City should be the benefactor, especially since it more aptly fits the “theme” of the category.

Best Created Environment in an Animated Feature

Cairo City – The Bad Guys 2 Nil
The Communiverse – Elio WL TL
Marsh Market – Zootopia 2 WL PP
Seoul – KPop Demon Hunters PP TL

Wesley Lovell: Seoul just doesn’t have the pizazz that I think voters in this category will go for, which is why I gave both Elio and Zootopia 2 better odds to win.

Best Model in a Photoreal or Animated Project

Bison – Wicked: For Good Nil
The Fortress of Solitude – Superman PP TL
The Niflheim Spaceship – Mickey 17 WL
The Windtraders’ Gondola – Avatar: Fire and Ash WL PP TL

Wesley Lovell: Another win for Avatar as the windtraders’ ship is pretty spectacular, though the voters do love their space ships in this category.

Best Special (Practical) Effects in a Photoreal or Animated Project

Bags – Gen V WL PP TL
Who Are You? – Andor WL PP TL

Wesley Lovell: Both of these are television programs this year so not really impactful in terms of Oscars but Andor was more acclaimed in terms of effects so it will probably win.

Emerging Technology Award

Nil
BodyOpt – Avatar: Fire and Ash WL TL
Detached Facial Features – Win or Lose Nil
Kora Fire Toolset – Avatar: Fire and Ash WL
Real-Time High Fidelity Animation System Using Signed Distance Functions – Elio PP
REVIZE – Mickey 17 PP TL

Wesley Lovell: Ever since this category’s introduction, Avatar has been the most forward-pushing film and thus one of its two selections should win and since the water toolset from the prior film won this award, I’m imagining the Kora Fire Toolset will too.