A mid-March broadcast gives the Oscars a lot of room to breathe, whether that’s because most of the precursors were done in January to avoid the Olympics or that even after the Olympics, the majors kept their distance from the Oscars. That doesn’t mean anything is settled but it does leave room for last minute shifts in prominence and with several of the precursors going largely different ways, it’s made for a rather unusual season.

With almost everything now behind us, let’s look at Sunday’s Oscars and see if we can make any final sense of what’s going on. Recent years have shown a tightening of races heading into the home stretch. Whether that’s a result of the broadening of the membership or some other factor, there are fewer and fewer races that feel settled at this point.

The categories below are sorted in order from least competitive to most competitive. They are further broken up into categories based on whether or not they are guaranteed outcomes, certain results, likely winners, or toss-ups. Best Picture, whether competitive or not (though it fits into the toss-up category this year), is last. While these are currently my final predictions, I reserve the right to change my mind at the last minute, though I rarely make changes this late in the program.

GUARANTEES

There are five categories where I feel there is a guarantee of a specific outcome. While they are guaranteed winners, please note that it’s always possible for an unexpected outcome to arise but, with these categories, that seems highly unlikely.

Best Adapted Screenplay

What Will Win: One Battle After Another (89.13% of all precursors, 84.21% of the majors). One of the most honored aspects of any film this year is Paul Thomas Anderson’s screenplay. There isn’t but one film that could even pose a challenge and even that is very remote. It would be a massive upset if anything else happened.
What Could Potentially Upset: Hamnet (6.52% of all precursors, 10.53% of the majors). Hamnet is the only Best Picture contender on this list that could stand a chance of upsetting One Battle but it’s not erudite enough to achieve a victory and without any crucial precursors, it simply feels like an also ran.
What I Would Like to See Happen: I can’t begrudge Paul Thomas Anderson an Oscar though I wish it had come a bit earlier in his career, especially for Boogie Nights or There Will Be Blood but better late than never.

Best Original Screenplay

What Will Win: Sinners (61.11% of all precursors, 60% of the majors). The Writers Guild of America, BAFTA, and Critics Choice agreed and that means this is pretty close to a done deal.
What Could Potentially Upset: Sentimental Value (1.85% of all precursors, 0% of the majors), It Was Just an Accident (12.96% of all precursors, 15% of the majors), Marty Supreme (3.70% of all precursors, 5% of the majors). Although 61% seems like a weak number, It Was Just an Accident was second with only 13%. That so much of the secondary votes were spread out suggests that there isn’t a lot of excitement about any particular spoiler and further confirms Sinners has the lead. Chicago and Los Angeles critics went for It Was Just an Accident and New York picked Marty Supreme. Sentimental Value also seems the weakest with no major precursors but it could well be a surprise victor if the stars align against Sinners.
What I Would Like to See Happen: Sinners was a fine screenplay andb like Get Out before it, it’s a worthy recognition of the inventive direction horror films featuring Black stories have gone in recent years.

Best Animated Feature

What Will Win: KPop Demon Hunters (72.73% of all precursors, 81.82% of the majors). With more than 70% of the precursors, including the Golden Globe, Annie, Producers Guild (PGA), and Critics Choice (CCA) prizes along with awards from Chicago, New York, and more, the film seems destined to win, the BAFTA non-nomination notwithstanding.
What Could Potentially Upset: Zootopia 2 (12.73% of all precursors, 4.55% of the majors). KPop’s nearest competitor, Zootopia 2, is the sequel to a film that overwhelmed a much better film to win this trophy but that doesn’t seem to be working out for its sequel.
What I Would Like to See Happen: Of the animated films I’ve seen so far, KPop Demon Hunters is the best. I went in not expecting it to be much but it was fun, humorous, and had a positive message and that’s the best this category can hope for in most years.

Best Visual Effects

What Will Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash (80% of all precursors, 75% of the majors). There aren’t a lot of major visual effects prizes out there. Most of the old guard critics groups don’t honor them and the ones that do split between Avatar: Fire and Ash (CCA) and Sinners (Chicago, OFCS). However, among the majors that define where this category typically goes, Avatar was the clear winner picking up Visual Effects Society (VES) and BAFTA prizes.
What Could Potentially Upset: The Lost Bus (0% of all precursors), Sinners (12% of all precursors, 37.5% of the majors). You would imagine that Sinners, which also won at VES, would be more likely to come in second but it’s possible that The Lost Bus might have more admirers, especially for those who’ve seen it. Lost Bus has tons of effects and Sinners has few. That said, you shouldn’t really expect an upset in this category.
What I Would Like to See Happen: I was unimpressed by Avatar‘s visual effects. They were so much like prior outings and are looking more and more like motion-smoothing effects, which make me nauseated, that I can’t cheer on its victory. Any of the others would be fine by me at this juncture.

Best Original Score

What Will Win: Sinners (90.91% of all precursors, 87.50% of the majors). Among the most lopsided contests this year, Original Score is among them. Sinners won nearly all of them with the Society of Composers & Lyricists (SCL), BAFTA, Globe, CCA, and Kansas City giving it the prize. It’s likely unbeatable at this point.
What Could Potentially Upset: One Battle After Another (6.82% of all precursors, 6.25% of the majors), Hamnet (0% of all precursors), Frankenstein (0% of all precursors). The only other awards to go different directions were Chicago for One Battle After Another, SCL also picked Train Dreams in a different category, and Los Angeles critics went with Sirât. Still, that’s not good enough to overcome Sinners‘ overwhelming lead.
What I Would Like to See Happen: Sinners has an okay score and I don’t even remember the one from One Battle After Another but I vividly recall the score for Hamnet. In a movie about quiet, subtle moments, that beautiful work underscore many scenes perfectly and it’s too bad they have to face off against two other titanic competitors this year.

CERTAINS

These are outcomes that I expect will come to pass but certain factors make them impossible to guarantee victories. There are four categories here this year.

Best Directing

Who Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson (49.23% of all precursors, 54.17% of the majors). Only two filmmakers won the preponderance of directing prizes this year. Paul Thomas Anderson and Ryan Coogler claimed the vast majority. Anderson, however, won the undisputed majority of the major prizes and received key wins from the Directors Guild (DGA), BAFTA, Globes, CCA, Chicago, Los Angeles, NBR, and National Society among others. It seems a foregone conclusion that Anderson will win.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Ryan Coogler (30.77% of all precursors, 33.33% of the majors). Coogler didn’t pick up any of the televised awards and only managed two major critics organizations: Boston and Southeastern. New York, the lone figure not represented in this group, went with non-nominated Jafar Panahi. Thus, without any significant win, Coogler will be considered an also-ran.
What I Would Like to See Happen: Anderson certainly deserves an award. He should have won for There Will Be Blood, but this seems the perfect time to recognize him. I think what Chloé Zhao did with Hamlet was more impressive but she doesn’t stand a ghost of a chance.

Best Costume Design

What Will Win: Frankenstein (78.95% of all precursors, 87.50% of the majors). One film has won the Costume Designers Guild (CDG), BAFTA, and CCA prizes. Those televised awards reflect the majority of awards for Frankenstein in this category and, without last year’s winner’s sequel in the running, it doesn’t seem like it has any competition.
What Could Potentially Upset: Hamnet (0% of all precursors), Sinners (15.79% of all precursors, 12.50% of the majors). Sinners didn’t manage to collect any significant awards outside of the Online Film Critics Society (OFCS) so it’s probably toast, though I imagine the more expansive Hamnet is a more likely winner than Sinners, except that neither is going to win.
What I Would Like to See Happen: Guillermo Del Toro’s films always look gorgeous but apart from a couple of costumes, everything was a bit mediocre. My choice would be Wicked: For Good if it had been nominated but among these particular nominees, I would begrudgingly award Frankenstein.

Best Production Design

What Will Win: Frankenstein (80% of all precursors, 77.78% of the majors). Slightly less decisive are the awards given to Frankenstein in Production Design. It once again picked up all the televised and guild awards so it would be a bit shocking at this point for anything else to win.
What Could Potentially Upset: Hamnet (4% of all precursors, 11.11% of the majors), Sinners (16% of all precursors, 22.22% of the majors). Hamnet and Sinners managed to pick off a few more awards from Frankenstein here than they did in Costume Design but neither still have much of a chance. Hamnet lost to The Fantastic Four: First Steps at the Art Directors Guild (ADG) but picked up the Set Decorators Society (SDS) prize while Sinners picked up no guild award and only Los Angeles and OFCS among the rest. This looks to be another assured category for Frankenstein.
What I Would Like to See Happen: This is one area where I think Frankenstein certainly compared favorably to Wicked: For Good. Del Toro’s films are always impressive in their design work so it’s no surprise his film is going to win this award and I’m fine with that.

Best Actress

Who Will Win: Jessie Buckley (54.10% of all precursors, 41.67% of the majors). Someone who’s won a bare majority of prizes, and less than half of the major ones, has turned into a major frontrunner whereas the other acting categories have not seen the same shift. That’s a bit surprising but when you see that Buckley is the only one of the acting winners to win at the Globes, BAFTA, SAG, and CCA, it makes more sense. She’s steamrolling to the Oscars and it’s unlikely any will stop her.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Rose Byrne (32.79% of all precursors, 50% of the majors). The other Globe winner, Byrne, is likely the only person who will be able to stop Buckley from winning. She picked up major prizes from Los Angeles, NBR, and New York but missed out on the crucial Nation Society prize (that went to non-contender Kathleen Chalafant). Still, her film isn’t nominated elsewhere at the Oscars and while that used to be no hindrance, recent years have shown more willingness to give the prize to the star of an Oscar nominee for Best Picture and that means Byrne may have to console herself with the tremendous showing she made with critics groups.
What I Would Like to See Happen: I absolutely loved Buckley in Hamnet and I would be disappointed if she didn’t win. Her subtle work is sheer brilliance and she’ll be handsomely rewarded for it.

LIKELIES

Five categories sit in this segment. These are wins that seem likely but which have a lot of mitigating factors that could upend the race. While changes with these are less likely to be considered surprises, they are not impenetrable.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

What Will Win: Frankenstein (100% of all precursors, 100% of the majors). You would think with a perfect record from precursors, Frankenstein would be the odds-on favorite to win and it is but it’s not as done a deal as some might think.
What Could Potentially Upset: Sinners (9.09% of all precursors, 16.67% of the majors), Kokuho (0% of all precursors), The Ugly Stepsister (0% of all precursors). The reason for that is twofold. One is that while Frank won at the Make Up Artists & Hair Stylists (MUAHS) guild, so too did Sinners and One Battle After Another. If there is indeed a sweep building for Sinners, this would be one of the easiest awards to pick off. Other than Frankenstein’s monster, there isn’t a lot of other makeup effects going on but there are a few more in Sinners. Then there’s Kokuho and The Ugly Stepsister, not nominated elsewhere, but with stronger makeup profiles than expected. Of course, they also contain a minimum amount of characters in makeup, which would seem to lead us once again back to Frankenstein. An upset is certainly possible but not terribly likely at this point.
What I Would Like to See Happen: The makeup in Sinners looked more authentic and detailed than Frankenstein and it would be nice to see a horror film win this award when so many important ones from the past (ahem A Nightmare on Elm Street) haven’t even been nominated.

Best Sound

What Will Win: F1 (53.33% of all precursors, 71.43% of the majors). What’s interesting in this race is just how wide the gap is between all precursors and just the major ones. The vast majority of the majors went to F1 but for all precursors it was just a little over 50%. That distinction won’t matter much to Oscar voters but when the majors in question are the Cinema Audio Society (CAS), BAFTA, and the CCA, it’s probably all over but the shouting.
What Could Potentially Upset: Sinners (33.33% of all precursors, 28.57% of the majors), Frankenstein (6.67% of all precursors, 14.29% of the majors), Sirât (0% of all precursors). The fly in the ointment comes from the sound editors. Their guild, the MPSE, gave no awards to F1 but did select three of the other Oscar nominees, giving one prize to Frankenstein, two to Sinners, and one to Sirât. Among these, the first two on the list are more likely to earn a surprise victory, especially if Sinners does some sweeping.
What I Would Like to See Happen: None of these would really be my choice but Frankenstein had more notable sound design for me than Sinners but I wouldn’t say I care much about the end result this time.

Best International Film

What Will Win: Sentimental Value (42.11% of all precursors, 42.86% of the majors). The question in this category is rarely who has seen the film but rather which one got the most other Oscar nominations. Sentimental Value triumphs easily in that regard and with this being the only International Feature nominee with a Best Directing nomination, it’s pretty clear cut the way voters will be leaning.
What Could Potentially Upset: The Secret Agent (12.28% of all precursors, 28.57% of the majors), It Was Just an Accident (29.82% of all precursors, 23.81% of the majors), The Voice of Hind Rajab (0% of all precursors), Sirât (1.75% of all precursors, 0% of the majors). The Secret Agent is the second-most nominated and is in the Best Picture race as well. That said, it didn’t pull off a writing nomination but It Was Just an Accident did. That film also was in the race for a Best Directing nomination as well, which could bolster its chances, but the one I’m most interested to see if it can pull off an upset is The Voice of Hind Rajab. Among my earlier Oscar predictions, this film had Best Picture, Directing, and Writing citations. The premise is such a poignant one that I could imagine Oscar voters going for it in a big way. Unfortunately, it released late in the competition after most had probably decided on what they would nominate so it didn’t have much hope of getting above the line citations. That’s why I think it could lead an upset this year. Although the war in Iran might shift some focus to Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident, the situation in Palestine is still fresh in a lot of memories and the tragic tale of a dead child might be able to overcome the damage.
What I Would Like to See Happen: I don’t really have an opinion here as I’m behind in my foreign language viewing, having to date only seen Sentimental Value.

Best Casting

What Will Win: Sinners (88.89% of all precursors, 85.71% of the majors). This is the first year for the Best Casting award so little precedent is available to gauge the race on. That said, there are a small smattering of precursors that speak to the race, specifically the guild Casting Society of America (CSA) and BAFTA, which has had this award for several years. The problem is that BAFTA sat this contest out and honored I Swear instead of anything nominated on this side of the Atlantic. Apart from that, all of the non-CSA precursors went to Sinners, which explains the near-90% success rate of the film. It should conceivably be 100% but the CSA has a surfeit of categories and honored no less than 7 films with prizes. Some of them are easily dismissed because none of the Oscar winners was nominated. Sentimental Value did win CSA but it was confoundingly left off the Oscar list. That means Sinners should ostensibly have no competition.
What Could Potentially Upset: One Battle After Another (0% of all precursors), Hamnet (0% of all precursors). That said, a lot of people tend to confuse Best Casting with Best Ensemble when they are tangentially related. As such, One Battle After Another and Hamnet, which have acclaimed ensembles, could conceivably pull off a victory. That said, there’s little evidence this will occur as most of the evidence points towards Sinners but a win by One Battle won’t be out of the question in an awards sweep. Then there’s The Secret Agent, which mixed professional and non-professional actors and that might be catnip for any Oscar voters who understand the distinction between casting and ensemble work.
What I Would Like to See Happen: Casting is the art of finding the right actors to fit the roles. Ensemble deals with the entire cast working well together and bolstering the performances of other members. That said, picking the right cast and that cast doing fine work is oftentimes the result. That said, when a director secures the actors they want and that want to work with them, it becomes less of a casting triumph than an ensemble one. This is true of One Battle After Another and could be true about Sinners as well but when relative unknowns get plucked from obscurity, it’s often the casting director (who wins this award) that is to thank. As such, I’d consider Sinners, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, and The Secret Agent to succeed while One Battle seems less of an accomplishment. I’d say Sinners is probably the best, though I wouldn’t begrudge Hamnet a win either.

Best Original Song

What Will Win: Golden (47.37% of all precursors, 80% of the majors). The largest gulf between major precursors and overall award wins is right here. 80% of the major precursors went with “Golden” while it tied in overall wins with “I Lied to You.” The Globes and the CCA went with “Golden” but it won at the SCL (which “I Lied to You” also won). Regardless, it seems like this category is going to KPop Demon Hunters unless a sweep builds for Sinners, that’s just the way the clues point.
What Could Potentially Upset: I Lied to You (47.37% of all precursors, 40% of the majors), Train Dreams (0% of all precursors). There isn’t much more to say since “I Lied to You” is largely playing catch up. “Golden” also won at the Grammys, which are friendly to songs like “I Lied to You.” If Sinners wins here and a couple of other places, Best Picture could be a lock for it.
What I Would Like to See Happen: I wasn’t impressed with any of the nominees, though that was my impression before seeing KPop. The song is actually quite good and more impressive in the context of the film. That said, it’s the non-nominees “The Girl in the Bubble” and “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good that would have been my favorites as both provide some heavy lifting in terms of narrative development in the film. Unfortunately, they aren’t nominated, so “Golden” is my choice for what I’d most like to see win.

TOSS-UPS

The remaining ten Oscar categories are too close to call. They represent races where some precursors have either left doubts or have erased leads we thought were unquestionable.

Best Live Action Short Film

What Will Win: Jane Austen’s Period Drama. There are a handful of precursors out there that award live action short films but none of this year’s Oscar nominees won those awards, so we’re left with instinct (per usual) There was a time when I guessed this category based on the title of the short alone and I got it right surprisingly frequently. Those days are long gone as I have seen all of the nominees in the short categories for a few years now. Based on that impression, I feel fairly confident in saying Jane Austen’s Period Drama (which I would have chosen in those olden days) will win this. It’s the funniest of the bunch and that should count for a lot.
What Could Potentially Upset: A Friend of Dorothy, Two People Exchanging Saliva, Butcher’s Stain, The Singers. That said, this category is also home to a historical trend of “important” winners. That means something like Butcher’s Stain might be a winner. And sometimes they go with shorts like The Singers, which amuses them, but I’m not quite certain why. A Friend of Dorothy features a stellar performance from Miriam Margolyes and has a cute message and a positive ending and that could be just the kind of film that could pull an upset. There’s also a historical trend that the longest nominee is often the winner and that favors Two People Exchanging Saliva. However, I don’t think the film is likely to win the votes because it seems a bit oblique for Oscar voters and I imagine they’d rather honor something they enjoyed more than they had to think about less.
What I Would Like to See Happen: My clear favorite is Jane Austen but I would be just as ok with Friend of Dorothy or Two People winning. I wouldn’t begrudge Butcher’s Stain but would be actively miffed if Singers were to win.

Best Documentary Feature

What Will Win: The Perfect Neighbor (50% of all precursors, 58.33% of the majors). From a precursor standpoint, it’s clear that The Perfect Neighbor should win. It has awards from the CCA, Chicago, OFCS, and Spirit Awards. It has the majority of awards but there’s a small problem. It hasn’t been winning guild or televised awards.
What Could Potentially Upset: Mr. Nobody Against Putin (1.67% of all precursors, 4.17% of the majors), The Alabama Solution (3.33% of all precursors, 0% of the majors), Come See Me in the Good Light (0% of all precursors), Cutting Through Rocks (0% of all precursors). A non-nominee won at the PGA (My Mom Jayne), so that really doesn’t point anywhere but it’s that BAFTA win for Mr. Nobody Against Putin that could be the deciding factor. It faces a similar slate of nominees and came out on top. What might impact that win, though, is the proximity of the UK to Russia. Russia poses a clear threat to all of Europe and the UK actually teaches world history and will know that Russia is a dangerous foe when not kept in check by a belligerent child. As such, Mr. Nobody may have had more salience to BAFTA voters. The Perfect Neighbor is certainly a more American issue and that could bolster its chances for a win. That said, this one is ending up surprisingly close in the final days.
What I Would Like to See Happen: I haven’t seen any of the nominees and have no opinion on them.

Best Cinematography

What Will Win: One Battle After Another (14% of all precursors, 21.05% of the majors). It’s not often that a film with the preponderance of awards in a category goes down to defeat but that looks like what might just happen in Best Cinematography. Thanks to a late rally to win the American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) and BAFTA prizes, One Battle After Another becomes the odds-on favorite. Its only other major citations were from Chicago and Kansas City.
What Could Potentially Upset: Sinners (64% of all precursors, 63.16% of the majors), Train Dreams(20% of all precursors, 21.05% of the majors). Most of the rest of the awards went to Sinners, which claimed awards from NBR, National Society, New York, and OFCS. Train Dreams picked up the CCA and Los Angeles awards and was seen as the potential spoiler well before One Battle moved into position. Of course, historically, Best Cinematography has been given to the film with the best lighting design even if shot selection and framing is just as important to the craft. Regardless, Sinners was in the lead until BAFTA and could well still replace One Battle if a sweep manifests. It should also be said that a win by Sinners would mean the first win by a female cinematographer and that might ultimately tip the balance.
What I Would Like to See Happen: I’m not quite sure how One Battle ended up the frontrunner because there’s nothing exceptionally memorable about its photography. Sinners, on the other hand, had plenty to talk about with its pools of light in the juke joint and the substantial amount of night and golden hour shots. Though, I may be falling into the lighting trap with that selection but I can’t think of a set of framing in this batch of nominees that would be worthy of acclaim. My choice for winner, had it been selected, would have been Hamnet. Many of the shots in the film were framed like renaissance paintings, making the historical context feel more important. There was some terrific natural lighting as well. I just can’t imagine why cinematographers, of all people, wouldn’t have recognized that with at least a nomination.

Best Film Editing

What Will Win: One Battle After Another (50% of all precursors, 58.33% of the majors). Taking half of all precursors and 58% of the major ones, One Battle likely has this one sewn up. It claimed the American Cinema Editors (ACE) guild prize and won at BAFTA, Chicago, and the OFCS. Yet, it’s missing some other precursors, namely Boston and CCA going to F1 and Los Angeles picking Marty Supreme. Then there’s the other ACE award to Sinners. While BAFTA will pretty much have solidified One Battle‘s chances, it did not cement them.
What Could Potentially Upset: F1 (20.59% of all precursors, 25% of the majors), Sinners (11.76% of all precursors, 8.3% of the majors). There’s a tendency in the Academy to pick a heavily edited film to win this category and while that could well be something like F1 or Marty Supreme, it seems like neither has gained the kind of expected traction for a winner. Sinners has that ACE prize and could pull off an upset but based on past history, F1 is the most likely to overcome One Battle and with this being such a tight race, anything could happen…except Sentimental Value winning.
What I Would Like to See Happen: Tension in One Battle and Sinners are both high and I have no real qualms about either winning at this point.

Best Animated Short Film

What Will Win: The Girl Who Cried Pearls. There is a timeline in which all five of this year’s nominees could win and it’s a tighter race than initially expected. That said, The Girl Who Cried Pearls is more likely to impress Oscar voters than the others. The stop motion animation is decent (though the lip syncing element is awful) and the story has a unique twist of an ending but the ostensible protagonist does not come off well. Some might not catch his dismissive and abusive personality but enough might glom onto that as reason for going with one of the other titles.
What Could Potentially Upset: Butterfly, The Three Sisters, Retirement Plan, Forevergreen. Butterfly is the least impressively drawn but it has a very potent and relatively timely message and that could push it over the edge. If voters are looking for something more amusing, The Three Sisters will fit the bill. Retirement Plan could as well but its appeal may be limited to older Academy voters to whom this type of story would have the most emotional impact. Lastly is Forevergreen, which is the most traditional, kid-friendly kind of story that purists might prefer. In the end, I wouldn’t be surprised for any of them to win but The Girl Who Cried Pearls might well have the best shot of them all.
What I Would Like to See Happen: I’d be happy for Three Sisters to win. It entertained me the most.

Best Supporting Actress

Who Will Win: Amy Madigan (52.54% of all precursors, 41.67% of the majors). I don’t always go for the person having won the most precursors but Amy Madigan sure seems to have the award-related profile of an Oscar winner. SAG, CCA, Kansas City, New York, and OFCS all picked her over the others and she’s a veteran pro-union Hollywood actor. She will have a lot of base support for a career honor even if her career hasn’t exactly been of the highest quality. The stumbling block for her is that horror does not get recognized nearly enough at the Oscars. While the occasional performance picks up a nomination (Sigourney Weaver) or even a win (Kathy Bates), most of the time, horror actors are ignored and it would certainly take someone like Amy Madigan and a film like Weapons to change that calculus. She’s barely in the lead at the moment but barely may be enough to triumph.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Teyana Taylor (18.64% of all precursors, 29.17% of the majors), Wunmi Mosaku (15.25% of all precursors, 16.67% of the majors). Early in the race, Teyana Taylor was talked about as the one to beat. She did pick up an array of prominent awards like the Globe and from Chicago, Los Angeles, and the National Society critics. However, as the season progressed the tide turned against her. First Amy Madigan won the CCA and then Wunmi Mosaku triumphed at BAFTA. Those victories turned this into a real race by pulling Taylor down. With One Battle looking like it might not win any acting awards despite having four of them, Taylor seems like a strong candidate to pull off an upset. Sinners isn’t in the same position but that BAFTA win could be telling if it weren’t for Mosaku growing up in the UK. That may have influenced the category a little. Any one of these three ladies could win or split the vote and allow one of the film-splitting nominees from Sentimental Value to shock everyone.
What I Would Like to See Happen: This is a tough category. I’ve seen all of the nominees and Taylor is electric in her early scenes but there’s not much after that. Mosaku is quietly powerful and that’s a type of performance I like to see. I don’t see that Madigan did nearly as much in Weapons as her most ardent fans feel she has but she does make for a rather unnerving character. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas and Elle Fanning are good as well and if I were picking, I’d probably go with Ibsdotter Lilleaas over the others but it’s a really tight race even for me.

Best Actor

Who Will Win: Michael B. Jordan (31.15% of all precursors, 36.36% of the majors). Other than Best Supporting Actor, no category has had more ups and downs than Best Actor. One actor then another has led this contest and we’re no closer to predicting the winner. Trendlines favor Michael B. Jordan who went from only having major prizes from Kansas City, OFCS, and Southeastern critics to winning at SAG. The caveat is that SAG voters are actors and they love challenging performances, like playing twin brothers with different personalities, and that’s what Michael B. Jordan did. That doesn’t mean he’s not leading in the Oscar race. BAFTA went to a non-nominee this year and that tells you there’s no immense love for any one of these performances but someone has to win. The high profile win suggests Jordan is at least in the race but I’m reminded of the Chadwick Boseman shocker from a few years ago. Boseman was thought to be heading into the Oscars as the prohibitive frontrunner and then lost to veteran Anthony Hopkins.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Timothée Chalamet (27.87% of all precursors, 22.73% of the majors), Wagner Moura (8.20% of all precursors, 13.64% of the majors), Ethan Hawke (14.75% of all precursors, 18.18% of the majors), Leonardo DiCaprio (11.48% of all precursors, 9.09% of the majors). The closest we have to that in this race is Leonardo DiCaprio and there’s no one we would be surprised more to see win over the remaining nominees. The others all have positive results in their favor. Timothée Chalamet started off strong with the CCA and Golden Globe awards to go with his awards from Chicago and London critics. Wagner Moura, who might just be a come-from-behind victor, has the high profile Golden Globe and that is on top of wins at Cannes and with New York critics. Ethan Hawke has the majority of the old guard critics winning Boston, Los Angeles, and National Society. Then we’re back to DiCaprio. He won a long overdue Oscar already but is one of those actors you can see winning a second. He was the recipient of critics prizes from NBR and Dallas-Fort Worth critics. With the old guard split and Sinners ascendant, it still seems like Jordan could pull this one out but don’t be surprised if any of the others win.
What I Would Like to See Happen: I like Jordan’s performance and I like DiCaprio’s. If DiCaprio hadn’t won for The Revenant, this might be the best performance to honor him. That said, Jordan has been impressive for a while and his work here runs a rather intense gamut from passionate to aggressive and it all works quite well. I will have to decide with the others in the mix once I see those films.

Best Supporting Actor

Who Will Win: Stellan Skarsgård (18.97% of all precursors, 28.57% of the majors). Of the above-the-line categories, this is probably the tightest race of them all. Every nominee in this category has a chance to win. The reason I’m settling on Stellan Skarsgård is his prominence as a character actor. He’s been appreciated for a long time but this is his first and probably only Oscar nomination. He has awards from Los Angeles and the Globes, so he has a decent profile for winning. That said, he’s also got the third lowest number of precursor wins.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Sean Penn (36.21% of all precursors, 33.33% of the majors), Delroy Lindo (8.62% of all precursors, 4.76% of the majors), Jacob Elordi (12.07% of all precursors, 14.29% of the majors), Benicio del Toro (36.21% of all precursors, 33.33% of the majors). Leading the way there is Benicio del Toro who claimed roughly a third of the prizes, both overall and major ones. He won Chicago, NBR, National Society, and New York, which is three-fourths of the old guard critics. Yet, he hasn’t won a single televised prize and his best chance at that was the SAG awards and they went with his One Battle co-star Sean Penn. Penn is an interesting case. With SAG, BAFTA, Kansas City, and London awards, he has a decent profile going into the Oscars. He also has two Oscars already. Perhaps the days when actors were kept away from their third trophies for a long time is passed but that’s his only real stumbling block. At BAFTA and SAG, that wasn’t the case, so honoring his body of work was acceptable, but that’s not true of the Oscars. Jacob Elordi’s high profile victory was at the CCA. No one really considered him a contender to win until that moment. The problem is that he had no major prizes before and ended up with not much after, leaving his candidacy a bit of a blip. The last man standing is in a similar situation but even more dire. Delroy Lindo wasn’t even in the conversation until his “semi-surprise” nomination and although he didn’t win any major prizes, he has the hallmarks of a career performer winning their first and only Oscar. He’s similar to Skarsgård in that respect except Lindo has one thing more going for him. There was a lot of buzz around Lindo being in contention for an Oscar nomination for Da 5 Bloods. That didn’t materialize and that may have been an underlying theme of getting him this nod. I don’t think the Academy is going to go for a supporting performance that isn’t very long and Penn and Elordi both have extensive presences in their respective films. Skarsgård does too but he takes a backseat more frequently than those two. Del Toro seems an even odder choice considering his very brief appearance in One Battle and those early prizes don’t make a whole lot of sense, unlike Taylor who gives a stronger performance in her brief appearance. Regardless at this point, any of them could win and while I think Skarsgård has a good chance, I wouldn’t be surprised for it to go to any of the others. The consolation for Lindo is that losing makes him the perfect candidate for an honorary Oscar in the future…though they really need to give one to James Hong first.
What I Would Like to See Happen: Having seen all of these nominees, I’d have to say Penn gives the best performance of the bunch with Skarsgård a solid second place. He was also brilliant in his two other Oscar-winning performances and so I don’t have an issue with him picking up a third. Some actors get awards for mediocre performances so someone getting three for three terrific performances isn’t such a bad thing.

Best Documentary Short Subject

What Will Win: Armed Only with a Camera. What makes this category so difficult to predict is that the options are four challenging portraits of controversial subjects. Abortion, dead children in Gaza, dead children in America, and dead journalists covering difficult topics. Which direction will voters go? Abortion is a hot topic but as past quality live action shorts have shown, Oscar voters don’t tend to award them. Dead children cover two different topics: 2nd amendment in one and the horrors of war in the other. That might split those interested in awarding such a document. That leaves a topic that sort of hits on two of these topics, Armed Only with a Camera. It’s an iffy prospect and I’m not completely certain it will win but other than The Devil Is Busy, I have a hard time focusing in on why it couldn’t win.
What Could Potentially Upset: The Devil Is Busy, All the Empty Rooms, Children No More, Perfectly a Strangeness. All the Empty Rooms had the potential to be the definitive choice for this but the volume of school shootings isn’t terribly visible in the short and focusing on five keeps things short but also diminishes some of the impact. Add in the journalist’s self-congratulatory perspective and it might turn off just as many as it appeals to. Children No More is harrowing, depicting hundreds of Palestinian children being slaughtered in the war in Gaza and the disturbing indifference and outright hostility of Israeli citizens to that horror. It is a gut-wrenching portrait that we don’t often see but the subject matter is so polarizing, even in Hollywood, that I could see this attracting far too few votes to pull out a win. The Devil Is Busy feels more like a traditional documentary and it covers an important subject. That it has no perspective of the women getting abortions robs it of some of its power but what’s left doesn’t lack it. With all of this, while I have to lean towards Armed, I can’t help but feel any of these four could win.
What I Would Like to See Happen: I rank The Devil Is Busy as my top choice and I would be pleased with a win but the other three I’ve referenced would be solid winners as well. The only thing I don’t want to see happen is a split vote crowning Perfectly a Strange the winner. What a waste of celluloid that was. I saw better documentaries in grade school than that one. It was pretty but vacuous, just like the space it showcases.

Best Picture

What Will Win: One Battle After Another (52.17% of all precursors, 57.69% of the majors). And here we have the award of the night. Although some recent years predicting Best Picture has been easy, this time we’re definitely facing a crisis of faith in our predictions. One Battle After Another dominated the early precursors, winning all of the old guard: New York, Los Angeles, NBR, and National Society. Winning all four and losing Best picture is practically unheard of. Even La La Land, which was upset by Moonlight, didn’t have those four. To make matters stronger, CCA, Globe, BAFTA, DGA, and PGA all went from One Battle. Matter of fact, the only major critics group that didn’t was Boston and they went for Sinners. This should make One Battle After Another a fait accompli. And yet, there’s doubt.
What Could Potentially Upset: Sinners (31.88% of all precursors, 34.62% of the majors), Hamnet (7.25% of all precursors, 3.85% of the majors). The reason for that doubt is Sinners, which won an impressive number of precursors, including the SAG Best Cast award. SAG, though, is not a good Oscar precursor. They have correctly predicted Best Picture 14 times out of 30 opportunities. That’s less than 50% of the time. They have hit and missed as frequently in the last ten years as they have historically, so this is definitely not a guarantee. Further, and what keeps me from saying to expect an upset, is that of the 12 times the PGA and DGA have gone to one film and SAG to a different one, only in three of those cases did the SAG winner triumph (Shakespeare in Love, Crash, and Parasite). Two of those times, neither won (12 Years a Slave and Moonlight). That leaves 7 times PGA/DGA were accurate. I’m sure we could dig deeper with that but for now, that should be enough. Still, Sinners won a lot of the late-breaking prizes and the desire to recognize it seems to have been building. We won’t truly know until the final envelope is opened. If it can pick up one or two unexpected Oscars early in the night (song, editing, sound, or supporting actor), it might have a chance but if everything plays out as expected, One Battle will be crowned Best Picture. Then, of course, if those two heavyweights are busy duking it out and another film manages to secure just enough choices outside of voters for those two, then I expect a Hamnet shocker would be perfectly in line for the night, though I consider this potential incredibly unlikely.
What I Would Like to See Happen: I had more problems with the frontrunners than most people did. One Battle felt cribbed from the Coens and Sinners felt like it was trying too hard and left a couple of plot threads hanging. I enjoyed Hamnet more than these two and I wouldn’t be upset to see it or even Sentimental Value win. I won’t hate One Battle or Sinners winning, they just won’t be my favorites of the year.

And that’s all for my predictions for this year’s Oscars. We’ll have a post on the Best Picture race this morning and our group’s final predictions tomorrow. We’ll see you again on Sunday as we post the winners as they happen and then you’ll hear from us again on Tuesday with our final report on the ceremony.