We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of August and see what films faltered. Then we’ll look forward to October and see what has some potential.
Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts
August Retrospective
Before starting in on the four films I highlighted back in July, it must be noted that there were no other films to release theatrically in that window that struck me as having Oscar potential even some highly acclaimed films like Bottoms and Birth/Rebirth. As such, let’s just look at the prior four films and how they fared in August.
Of the wide releases, I discussed Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem and The Last Voyage of the Demeter. The latter landed with a thud both in terms of critical acclaim and theatrical viewership. The former, on the other hand, did quite well with both. The film sits among the handful of prominent animated films this year under consideration for Animated Feature and has a better shot at getting a nomination than the animated box office king of the year, The Super Mario Bros. Movie and that’s due to the branch’s bias against certain types of adaptations (The Lego Movie, anyone?).
On the limited side, let’s first toss out White Bird, which once again got its release window shifted. This time, it has moved to November. Whether this was a move to increase potential viewership or continuing lack of faith in its chances, we don’t know. Suffice it to say, it’s off the table for discussion right now. Before its limited release, Helen Mirren’s other 2023 film with a long delay had been pushed off a couple of times largely due to the negative early reaction the film had at Berlinale back in February. Still, it soldiered on and earned a release at last, but the formal impression of critics was the same: mediocrity. Now, Mirren still received solid notices, but this year’s Best Actress race is really shaping up to be a banger and with so many films coming out before and after with higher profiles, it’s not likely Mirren can hang on with this one.
October Forecast
While August seemed a bit tepid in its offerings, October is shaping up to be a major release window for Oscar contenders. All but one of the six titles I’m highlighting this month are limited releases with the remaining title needing a platform release rather than the wide one it’s charted. Let’s of course start with that film, Martin Scorsese’s latest.
Killers of the Flower Moon deals with a notorious incident in Oklahoma where several high profile Native American murders are committed after oil is discovered on Osage lands. Starring Leonardo DiCaprio as a man fighting against the wealthy oil barons wanting control, the film has earned strong reviews out of its out-of-competition Cannes debut with DiCaprio and co-stars Lily Gladstone and Robert De Niro getting the lion’s share of the attention. The film promises to be a strong Oscar contender, though I’m wary of its win potential. Scorsese has twice landed massive nomination tallies only to go home empty-handed. Gangs of New York was first and this his most recent effort, The Irishman, was the second. Could this film suffer the same fate? It all depends on where Gladstone is campaigned. If it’s in support, she could very well win. If it’s in lead, she’s likely to lose. On the other hand, De Niro has a decent shot at winning his third Oscar for the film. That said, it’s too early to tell if this is another film that Scorsese stans will love, but others won’t, or if it can land the kind of broad support Hugo received.
What’s going on with the limited releases? A lot. Three are certified festival hits, a fourth is shaping up to be a solid performer and the fifth might be a little lightweight for the Academy’s tastes.
That film is She Came to Me, the latest film starring 4-time Emmy winner Peter Dinklage, who should have had at least two Oscar nominations at this point, alongside Oscar winners Anne Hathaway and Marisa Tomei. The film is the latest from writer-director Rebecca Miller (Maggie’s Plan) and doesn’t have much going for it other than its terrific cast. This one is probably going to fall by the wayside as several more prominent and more serious productions jockey for position, leaving She Came to Me in the dust.
Nyad is the title that hasn’t gotten much attention yet. While a few initial reactions were positive, it hasn’t been the kind of overwhelming support one would expect, but multi-Oscar nominee Annette Bening can’t be counted out, nor can two-time Oscar winner Jodie Foster. We’ll have to see how final word builds after Toronto is done.
One of the reasons I wasn’t as high on Anatomy of a Fall as my fellow prognosticators was that Cannes releases regularly release a year after their premiere, but it looks like Anatomy of a Fall will be making out this year. The film did quite well at Cannes, earning the film the Palme d’Or, the festival’s top award. It also stars Sandra Hüller who was in not one but two Cannes festival winners. The other, Zone of Interest also looks like it might release this year, possibly guaranteeing Hüller a spot in the Best Actress race (if the Academy can settle on which to celebrate).
After a few misfires, Alexander Payne looks to be back with The Holdovers, a return to the realm of boarding schools and teacher-student relationships. Not only is the film earning raves, Paul Giamatti is being talked up as a sure fire Best Actor winner, long after he should have been nominated for Sideways and possibly even American Splendor. While he won’t be the odds-on favorite to win, a nomination seems nearly certain at this point.
Lastly, we have festival winner Priscilla, which took the Volpi Cup for best performance for star Cailee Spaeny as Priscilla Presley. It’s Sofia Coppola’s return to prominence, but it’s said to be a bit divisive. That might not help Spaeny with Oscar voters, especially with plenty of other contenders this year. Coppola’s film doesn’t seem like it’s going to be able to hang onto any momentum, so I wouldn’t count too much on it, but I could be wrong.
Now, let’s here what Pete and Thomas have to say.
Pete Patrick’s Thoughts
August Retrospective
Sorry, but nothing released in August seems worthy of an Oscar nomination in any category.
October Forecast
The big October release is certain to be Killers of the Flower Moon on 10/20. Nothing else seems likely to matter.
Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts
August Retrospective
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem might have an outside chance at an animated feature nom, providing it is a weak year for other animated films. It has not proved a strong year so far, but several films have yet to open, and I doubt it will make the cut.
Medusa Deluxe could pull off a surprise nomination for Makeup and Hairstyling for the wildly inventive hairdos that appear in the film. It is not the normal movie that picks up nominations, but the work looks so decidedly unlike anything else that perhaps it will get a nomination.
Golda would seem a likely Oscar pick for Helen Mirren, but I have heard almost no buzz about the movie that I fear she will be overlooked this year. Early reviews were also pretty mixed. It is hard to rule Dame Helen out, but it is starting to seem unlikely. If she does pull off a nomination look for a possible one for Makeup and Hairstyling too.
The Inventor looks too weak to be an animated feature nominee, but it could happen in a bad year.
October Forecast
Killers of the Flower Moon should be major Oscar bait, unless its 3 ½ hour running time turns too many people off. It got a huge ovation at Cannes and word of mouth has been strong. It should pull off noms for picture, director, actor, supporting actor, supporting actress (unless Lily Gladstone tries for best actress), and adapted screenplay. It should also do well in all of the tech categories, battling with Oppenheimer for the most nominations across the board.
Ever since its debut at the Cannes Film Festival, Anatomy of a Fall has looked poised to make a big run at the Oscars. France should put it forward as their entry for international film, which it might well win. It might also pull off a nom for best picture, which is less likely. But look for it to get an original screenplay nom as well as a probable best actress one for Sandra Hüller.
The Holdovers looks to bring Alexander Payne back into the Oscar discussion, though the first preview did not excite me. It seems likely to pull off nominations for picture, actor (Paul Giamatti), supporting actress (Da’Vine Joy Randolph), and original screenplay. Dominic Sessa might get a supporting actor nom.
If the critics are just impressed by Cailee Spaeny’s portrayal of Priscilla Presley in Sofia Coppolas’s Priscilla, she could pull off a nom for best actress, though I doubt that will happen. It could also be a possibility for sound and Makeup as well.
