We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of September and see what films faltered. Then we’ll look forward to November and see what has some potential.
Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts
September Retrospective
While this series typically looks at movies that release within the month in question, the three big fall festivals happened in September, so my September Forecast back in August looked at both theatrical releases and festival offerings. Since I’ll be tackling some of the latter in more detail when they release later this year, I thought I’d do a quick rundown of some of the highlights of what sizzled, what simmered, and what soured.
Let’s start things off with the films that soured upon release either at the box office or at one of the three festivals, Venice, Toronto, and Telluride. The Creator was Gareth Edwards’ attempt to serve up a unique futuristic universe with plenty of allegorical and metaphorical hot takes. Unfortunately for him, critics were only modestly impressed and its box office was abysmal, so that one bites the dust. Hilary Swank is probably the only two-time Oscar winner whose subsequent output has been a steaming pile. While there was some hope that she would get out of her rut with The Good Mother, critics hated it and that was the end.
I’ll set Kenneth Branagh’s third Agatha Christie adaptation, A Haunting in Venice, on the side burner to simmer. While the critics seemed generally more receptive of it than the prior two efforts, the box office wasn’t terribly impressive, which diminishes its already-mediocre Oscar chances.
And that’s it for the theatrical releases. There weren’t many options for Oscar contenders, but September continues to be held up as an example of where to release films that have no good prospects of excellent critical reception or stupendous box office success.
So without sizzles at the box office, let’s turn to the festival output I was most looking forward to as potential Oscar players. But first, let’s hit up what soured. Only one film really bombed at the festival and it was Roman Polanski’s The Palace, a film that currently sits with a 0% Fresh rating at Rotten Tomatoes. Do you know how bad a film has to be to get that low a score? This stinker wasn’t likely to be an Oscar player due to Polanski’s persona-non-grata status, but this pretty much put the nail in his coffin.
The term simmering isn’t meant as a put down since all of these titles did quite well with critics, but their inability to stand out and above the films that truly excelled means they have solid chances, but aren’t going to be major players. Those include Kate Winslet’s passion project Lee, David Fincher’s assassin thriller The Killer, Woody Allen’s French-language Coup de Chance, the GameStop short-sale story Dumb Money, J.A. Bayona’s Society of the Snow, Michael Mann’s biopic Ferrari, and William Friedkin’s final film, The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial, which will almost assuredly go direct to TV rather than the big screen, but that destination might just end up with the film taking the Emmy next year.
With that out of the way, let’s look at the six films that absolutely sizzled. we start with the film that has only one shot at an Oscar nomination, Best Live-Action Short Film. Although Wes Anderson’s feature-length Asteroid City was poorly reviewed, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar was warmly received and that should be enough to nab it an Oscar nomination. Richard Linklater’s Hit Man was incredibly well received, but it’s a comedy and that’s not a genre the Academy supports very well. It could still be a player, but there are too many films competing with it for it to make it far. El Conde might not be Pablo Larraín’s most Oscar-friendly effort, but its strong reviews could bolster its chances, especially in Best Cinematography. Before I get to the two most successful festival entrants this year, let’s highlight a film that could be a quiet competitor in a number of races, including Best Actress. Sofia Coppola’s Priscilla looks at the relationship between Elvis Presley and his wife Priscilla, including the questionable courtship and the rocky marriage. Cailee Spaeny won the Venice prize for Best Actress, which bolsters her chances, but the race is chock full of contenders, so she hasn’t secured a spot just yet.
Who has secured a spot? Emma Stone. Poor Things is Yorgos Lanthimos’ most acclaimed film to date and the vast majority of the praise for the film is for star Stone. While she might struggle to gain traction for a second Oscar, she is certainly assured a nomination. The film also has potential in a lot of categories, including Best Picture, but it’s a bit of a bizarre one. It will need quite a few year-end critics prizes to make it in. Maestro won’t need that, though. Bradley Cooper directed and stars in a biopic of the late Leonard Bernstein. Cooper’s performance has drawn praise, as has the film and Hollywood loves to honor films about its major talents, but again the biggest success of the film is its female star, Carey Mulligan. Mulligan plays Bernstein’s wife and she’s gotten some of the best notices of her career. She should have won the Oscar for Promising Young Woman, but this film might be her ticket to the Oscar stage.
That wraps up the September retrospective. While I know I didn’t highlight all of the festival entrants that piqued our attention, I wanted to look primarily at those I had highlighted two months ago. With that out of the way, it’s time to tackle the films coming out in November that have the most Oscar potential.
November Forecast
First, let’s dispense with two of the titles on my list. Priscilla and Maestro, both of which I highlighted above, are releasing in November. Priscilla‘s going wide, like Elvis did before it, while Maestro‘s going the limited route. With those two major players out of the way, let’s tuck into the other wide releases with the most potential.
Three of the five wide release films I’m highlighting would never have released limitedly as they are destined for big box office (at least the studios hope so). From Disney, you have the latest Marvel film, The Marvels, which could contend in Best Visual Effects, as well as Wish, which is a non-sequel animated feature that the studio hopes will revive its downward box office trend. Another animated feature has fewer prospects than Wish, but could surprise in a year with few frontrunners: Trolls Band Together is the third film in the franchise, though history has shown the Academy isn’t fond enough of this series to give it a nomination.
Next Goal Wins is the latest film in the model of Cool Runnings, sports comedies about weak teams trying to overcome adversity to win. While Taika Waititi’s latest tries to turn that genre on its head, early festival word is that it’s not great, which could hinder its chances both at the box office and with Academy voters.
The last of the five wide releases I wanted to touch on is one of the last movies that has not been seen this year. Ridley Scott’s Napoleon is a historical drama the likes of which the Academy used to love recognizing. That said, someone posted a vague comment on an upcoming film from a major director that they had seen. Since this is the only such film left, I suspect they were referring to it. And that is troubling because the early word was incredibly negative. That could explain why it didn’t play at year-end festivals, though Scott has never been one to push for that attention. That said, the film is sure to be a competitor in several craft categories even if the film itself doesn’t crack the upper tier.
There are two other November releases that need to be discussed: Rustin and Saltburn. The former is a biopic of the gay Black civil rights icon Bayard Rustin. The film has been seen by some and while they praise Colman Domingo’s performance in the lead role, they haven’t really said if it will be much of a competitor otherwise. Still, when you have a Best Actor contender, your film has a lot more prospects than one without, so it’s still going to make a play for big-time recognition.
The latter, Saltburn, is Emerald Fennell’s follow-up to her Oscar-winning Promising Young Woman, which should have won more than just an Original Screenplay Oscar. Word out of the festival is divisive. Some didn’t care for Fennell’s style or the film’s premise, but others have put forth glowing approval of the film. While it might struggle with the Academy following a polarizing response, Banshees of Inisherin supporting actor Barry Keoghan is getting incredible buzz for his performance. Best Actor is incredibly cramped this year, so he might not be able to crack the list, but like Rustin, having a Best Actor contender is beneficial.
That’s it from me this month. We’ll see you in November for our final 2023 forecast and a recap of what happened in October.
Pete Patrick’s Thoughts
September Retrospective
The only September release I see having some Oscar prospects is Kenneth Branagh’s A Haunting in Venice which could score nominations in Production Design and Costume Design.
November Forecast
November will be big with Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers and Bradley Cooper’s Maestro, major Oscar contenders all, opening. Then there are Todd Haynes’ May December, David Fincher’s The Killer, Ridley Scott’s Napoleon, George C. Wolfe’s Rustin, Jimmy Chin and Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi’s Nyad, and Disney’s Wish, which will also be vying for awards attention.
Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts
September Retrospective
A Haunting in Venice might pick up nominations for production design or costume design, but that seems very unlikely.
The Inventor could pull off a nomination for animated feature film, but it does not seem to have that big a campaign building so I doubt it will succeed.
Dumb Money might pull off a nom for original screenplay, but that is probably its only possible Oscar nomination.
Flora and Son has entered a song for consideration for original song. Since it is one of the few movies that actually uses songs in the course of the movie rather than just over the end credits, that might be enough to gather a nomination for it.
The Creator has an outside chance of pulling off a visual effects nomination, though it may be hard to pull off against the big tentpole productions.
November Forecast
Priscilla has an outside chance of scoring a nomination for best actress for Cailee Spaeny, but that field is so strong that I doubt she will make it.
Nyad definitely could nab nominations for lead actress Annette Bening and supporting actress Jodie Foster. Bening has the stronger chance of being nominated, though she does not seem likely to win yet again.
Rustin should easily get a nomination for Colman Domingo for best actor and possibly one for Makeup & Hairstyling.
The Marvels might get a nomination for visual effects, but that seems unlikely.
The Killer could most likely be nominated for score and film editing. It stands less of a chance for picture, actor, and adapted screenplay.
The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes is a possibility for Makeup & Hairstyling, though I doubt it will pull that off.
Next Goal Wins could pull off noms for picture and score, though the early reviews make that seem very unlikely.
Trolls Band Together is a possibility for animated feature and original song, though earlier films in the franchise have not done well in either category.
May December could pull off noms for Natalie Portman, Julianne Moore, and Charles Melton, with other possibilities for picture and original screenplay. Right now I would say it is on the cusp of nominations and might either do very well or could easily miss out on most of them.
Saltburn had mixed early reviews, even leaning towards polarizing, but the later ones seem more favorable. While it has the possibility of several acting noms, picture, cinematography, and original screenplay, I am unsure of how many it will land.
Napoleon had sounded like Oscar bait, but Ridley Scott’s latest work just has not cracked into the public’s consciousness like I expected. It might pull off tech noms for cinematography, production and costume design, and perhaps makeup, but right now even those do not seem that likely.
Wish is a definite animated feature nominee, with a strong possibility for original song. I do not know if it will pull off any others.
Maestro got a lot of gruff for its makeup, but it still sounds like it will be a definite Oscar player. It should pull off easy nominations for picture, actor, actress, original screenplay, and makeup & hairstyling. Other possibilities are for director, costume design, and production design.
