Tomorrow morning, the nominations for the 96th Academy Awards will be announced. They’ll be revealed by TV stars Zazie Beetz (Atlanta, Deadpool 2) and Jack Quaid (The Boys, Star Trek: Lower Decks).

Before the nominations are announced, I wanted to put down in writing my thoughts on this year’s categories and how I came to my choices for my final predictions. In past years, I would talk about the alphabetical order announcement and dig into what is in trouble and what isn’t depending on where they are announced in the order. I’m going to try something differently this year and not do that at all rather talk about the various types of predictions I’ve made (locks and near locks; good bets; borderlines and doubtfuls). I’ll talk where the break is, why those above and below it should feel safe or in danger and more. I hope this will be inherently more educational.

Since the nominations will be broken down in groups with less than half nominated in the first group and the remainder in the second, I will be breaking down my commentary similarly. I’ll try to sort the categories in each group by their volatility, though that might be difficult this year considering how much there already is and just how competitive everything will be this year.

Before we dig into that, let’s start off with the presentation groupings. While the announcement order within the group was not revealed and subject to change, the below should give you an idea of when things should announce. That said, every year, one or two categories are swapped in the last-minute between groups.

Group 1 (alphabetical order):

• Actor in a Supporting Role
• Actress in a Supporting Role
• Animated Short Film
• Costume Design
• Live Action Short Film
• Makeup and Hairstyling
• Music (Original Score)
• Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
• Writing (Original Screenplay)

Group 2 (alphabetical order):

• Actor in a Leading Role
• Actress in a Leading Role
• Animated Feature Film
• Cinematography
• Directing
• Documentary Feature Film
• Documentary Short Film
• Film Editing
• International Feature Film
• Music (Original Song)
• Best Picture
• Production Design
• Sound
• Visual Effects

Below, embedded in this article, is a video where you can watch the announcement streamed live starting at 5:30am PST / 7:30am CST / 8:30am EST / 1:30pm GMT / 9:30pm China for Group 1 and 5:41am PST / 7:41am CST / 8:41am EST / 1:41pm GMT / 9:41pm China for Group 2. Although you can watch it from my site, YouTube (or another of the Academy’s socials) may be the better bet.

To find my Hopefuls list without the commentary, click here: listed as Hopefuls.

Don’t miss all of Awards Landscape’s contributors and their thoughts in today’s other post: final nominations predictions post.

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With all of that out of the way, let’s get to the commentary:

Group 1

Best Animated Short Film

My Predictions:

• Letter to a Pig (c-12/21, n-1/16, o-1/16)
• Boom (c-12/21, n-1/16)
• Once Upon a Studio (c-12/21, n-1/16)
• Pete (c-12/21, n-1/16)
• War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko (c-12/21, n-1/16)
• 27 (c-12/21)
• Eeva (c-12/21)
• Humo (Smoke) (c-12/21)
• I’m Hip (c-12/21)
• A Kind of Testament (c-12/21)
• Koerkorter (Dog Apartment) (c-12/21)
• Ninety-Five Senses (c-12/21)
• Our Uniform (c-12/21)
• Pachyderme (c-12/21)
• Wild Summon (c-12/21)

Precursors:

• Carne de Dios —– (1) [33.33%] —– (– Annie –)
• Crab Day —– (1) [33.33%] —– (– BAFTA –)
• Daffy in Wackyland —– (1) [33.33%] —– (– Annie –)
• Humo —– (1) [33.33%] —– (– Annie –)
• Invincible: Atom Eve —– (1) [33.33%] —– (– Annie –)
• Once Upon a Studio —– (1) [33.33%] —– (– HCA –)
• Pina —– (1) [33.33%] —– (– Annie –)
• Shape Island: The Winter Blues —– (1) [33.33%] —– (– Annie –)
• The Smeds and the Smoos —– (1) [33.33%] —– (– Annie –)
• Snoopy Presents: One-of-a-Kind Marcie —– (1) [33.33%] —– (– Annie –)
• The Velveteen Rabbit —– (1) [33.33%] —– (– Annie –)
• Visible Mending —– (1) [33.33%] —– (– BAFTA –)
• War Is Over! Inspired by the Music John & Yoko —– (1) [33.33%] —– (– Annie –)
• Wild Summon —– (1) [33.33%] —– (– BAFTA –)

General Commentary: For the short film categories, I have not assigned a “lock/borderline” rating because there is sometimes no rhyme or reason the Academy’s voters pick what they do, so we’ll just go over my predictions and if there are any precursors and whether anything will have an inherent benefit that is obvious. In this category, the short that has a built in advantage is Once Upon a Studio. That’s a Disney-lovers dream featuring numerous characters from across Disney’s 100-year history coming to celebrate that event. I suspect it will get nominated on that basis alone.

The rest will all depend on how they make members feel. Some will select them because they make them laugh, others will be chosen for tackling challenging topics effectively, and others will be chosen on the pure aesthetic and creative merits. My choices are all based on content rather than animation style and even then I can’t say what will be good for one person or another, so these are best guesses. Based on the precursors, only 3 have a chance at a nomination as they are the only ones with prior recognition: Once Upon a Studio, Humo, and Wild Summon. I don’t think that’s a particularly good way to choose them, but the three certainly have some support.

Best Live Action Short Film

My Predictions:

• Red, White and Blue (c-12/21, n-1/16, o-1/16)
• The Anne Frank Gift Shop (c-12/21, n-1/16)
• Invincible (c-12/21, n-1/16)
• Strange Way of Life (c-12/21, n-1/16)
• The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar (c-12/21, n-1/16)
• The After (c-12/21)
• An Avocado Pit (c-12/21)
• Bienvenidos a Los Angeles (c-12/21)
• Dead Cat (c-12/21)
• Good Boy (c-12/21)
• Invisible Border (c-12/21)
• Knight of Fortune (c-12/21)
• The One Note Man (c-12/21)
• The Shepherd (c-12/21)
• Yellow (c-12/21)

Precursors:

• The After —– (1) [25.00%] —– (– HCA –)
• Festival of Slaps —– (1) [25.00%] —– (– BAFTA –)
• For People in Trouble —– (1) [25.00%] —– (– LFCC –)
• Gorka —– (1) [25.00%] —– (– BAFTA –)
• Jellyfish and Lobster —– (1) [25.00%] —– (– BAFTA –)
• Motherland —– (1) [25.00%] —– (– CSA –)
• Muna —– (1) [25.00%] —– (– LFCC –)
• Newbie —– (1) [25.00%] —– (– CSA –)
• Outlets —– (1) [25.00%] —– (– LFCC –)
• Predators —– (1) [25.00%] —– (– LFCC –)
• S.P.I.C. —– (1) [25.00%] —– (– CSA –)
• Strange Way of Life —– (1) [25.00%] —– (– HCA –)
• Such a Lovely Day —– (1) [25.00%] —– (– BAFTA –)
• Us —– (1) [25.00%] —– (– CSA –)
• We Were Meant To —– (1) [25.00%] —– (– CSA –)
• The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar —– (1) [25.00%] —– (– HCA –)
• Yellow —– (1) [25.00%] —– (– BAFTA –)

General Commentary: Another short film category and another list where my guesses are largely based on content. That said, two major filmmakers have shorts on this list: Pedro Almodóvar and Wes Anderson. Strange Way of Life and The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar are those two films and I think with the star power on deck for each, they should be shoo-ins for nominations. That said, this group can be cliquey and purposely avoid those titles, but I don’t think so this time. Although I wasn’t that impressed with Strange Way of Life, I can see why it might have some appeal and so I include both of them for that reason alone. The After, Strange Way of Life, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, and Yellow are the only four shorts on the shortlist that have been previously recognized with awards nominations.

Best Original Screenplay

My Predictions:

• The Holdovers – David Hemingson (c-5/11, n-5/11, o-5/11) — Lock —
• Anatomy of a Fall – Justine Triet (c-9/20, n-9/20) — Lock —
• Past Lives – Celine Song (c-9/20, n-9/20) — Good —
• Maestro – Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Borderline —
• May December – Samy Burch, Alex Mechanik (c-8/13, n-12/19) — Borderline —
• Saltburn – Emerald Fennell (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• The Boy and the Heron – Hayao Miyazaki (c-1/18) — Borderline —
• The Iron Claw – Sean Durkin (c-1/18) — Borderline —
• Passages – Ira Sachs, Mauricio Zacharias (c-1/18) — Borderline —
• Air – Alex Convery (c-5/11) — Doubtful —

Precursors:

• Past Lives —– (31) [88.57%] —– (– BAFTA – GG – HCA – Sat – Spirit – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – COFC – CCA – DFC – FCAUK – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• The Holdovers —– (30) [85.71%] —– (– BAFTA – HCA – Sat – Spirit – AARP – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – MMCG – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Barbie —– (27) [77.14%] —– (– BAFTA – GG – HCA – Sat – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFC – FCAUK – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Anatomy of a Fall —– (24) [68.57%] —– (– BAFTA – GG – Gotham – HCA – Sat – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – DFWFCA – FCAUK – FFC – GWNY – LFCC – MMCG – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• May December —– (20) [57.14%] —– (– Sat – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFC – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – IFJA – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – UFCA –)
• Air —– (5) [14.29%] —– (– HCA – CCA – LVFCC – SLFCA – WAFCA –)
• Maestro —– (5) [14.29%] —– (– BAFTA – Sat – CCA – HFC – LVFCC –)
• Asteroid City —– (3) [8.57%] —– (– COFC – FFC – IFJA –)
• The Iron Claw —– (3) [8.57%] —– (– CIFCC – COFC – HFC –)
• Saltburn —– (3) [8.57%] —– (– HCA – AWFJ – DFC –)
• Bottoms —– (2) [5.71%] —– (– Spirit – IFJA –)
• Dream Scenario —– (2) [5.71%] —– (– GFCA – IFJA –)
• Birth/Rebirth —– (1) [2.86%] —– (– Spirit –)
• Fair Play —– (1) [2.86%] —– (– IFJA –)
• A Thousand and One —– (1) [2.86%] —– (– IFJA –)
• Tótem —– (1) [2.86%] —– (– Gotham –)

Locks & Near Locks: The Holdovers and Anatomy of a Fall are so well regarded that it would be a shock should either miss the nomination. With Barbie out of the way, these films are the only certain nominees this year.

Goods: That said, Past Lives is probably also in good standing, but the question has been whether it will go over big with Academy voters the way it did with critics? BAFTA suggests it might not be that popular, but with so few contending original screenplays, that should be enough to put this film in a comfortable third place.

Borderline/Predicted: Although Maestro seems stronger after the BAFTA nominations, it still feels like a film that’s running on fumes. The film got great early buzz in its festival debut, but when the critics started handing out awards, it seemed like an also-ran. May December has the opposite problem. The critics have been strongly supportive in spite of a mediocre festival debut. It has done quite well in their estimations, but has hit road blocks from more mainstream groups (Globes, BAFTA, etc.). What’s the disconnect? For some reason, Todd Haynes’ films always struggle with Academy voters. We all thought Carol would do extremely well and then came up short. May December, being the weaker of the two films both in terms of acclaim and precursor support, only benefits from the dearth of competition.

Borderline/Not Predicted: Air was one of my earliest predictions in this category, but it has been largely forgotten in precursor season with much of its momentum fading in the last few months. Saltburn is another early prediction thanks to Emerald Fennell’s past Oscar successes and of the films I am not predicting, this is one of the ones I think that has the strongest claim to taking up residence. The lack of competition forced me to look for some unusual choices that might come out of nowhere for nominations. I put films on the list that I never would have considered had there been a healthy competition on offer. Those films are The Boy and the Heron, The Iron Claw, and Passages. Each of these titles were late-season triumphs, Heron in Animated Feature, Passages in Best Actor, and The Iron Claw the last-minute arrival whose presence in the competition has been negligible, but could have been greater had producers realized it would do so well with critics.

In Summary: All of the Good/Lock/Near Lock titles were the most frequently cited in precursor season with May December also in the top echelons of Original Screenplay/Screenplay victors. Maestro and Air were on the fringes of those citations and, were Barbie put in Adapted like it was likely to be at the Oscars, we might know what that fifth slot would look like. I still think May December could be weaker than Maestro simply because BAFTA didn’t care for the former, but they are both in the bottom position on my predictions for a reason and either missing at this point wouldn’t be a shock, though what replaces them might be.

Best Costume Design

My Predictions:

• Poor Things – Holly Waddington (c-10/17, n-12/19, o-12/19) — Lock —
• Barbie – Jacqueline Durran (c-5/11, n-6/25) — Lock —
• Killers of the Flower Moon – Jacqueline West (c-5/11, n-1/16) — Borderline —
• Wonka – Lindy Hemming (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Borderline —
• Napoleon – Janty Yates (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Borderline —
• Chevalier – Oliver Garcia (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• The Color Purple – Francine Jamison-Tanchuck (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Asteroid City – Milena Canonero (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Oppenheimer – Ellen Mirojnick (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Priscilla – Stacey Battat (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• Maestro – Mark Bridges (c-5/11) — Borderline —

Precursors:

• Poor Things —– (16) [80.00%] —– (– CDG – BAFTA – HCA – Sat – OAFFC – CFC – CIFCC – CCA – HFC – LFCC – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – SFC – SLFCA –)
• Barbie —– (15) [75.00%] —– (– CDG – BAFTA – HCA – Sat – OAFFC – CFC – CIFCC – CCA – HFC – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – SFC – SLFCA –)
• Killers of the Flower Moon —– (14) [70.00%] —– (– CDG – BAFTA – HCA – Sat – OAFFC – CFC – CIFCC – CCA – HFC – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – SFC – SLFCA –)
• Napoleon —– (8) [40.00%] —– (– CDG – BAFTA – Sat – CCA – HFC – LVFCC – SDFC – SFC –)
• Oppenheimer —– (8) [40.00%] —– (– CDG – BAFTA – Sat – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – SLFCA –)
• The Color Purple —– (6) [30.00%] —– (– HCA – Sat – CIFCC – CCA – LVFCC – NCFC –)
• Priscilla —– (5) [25.00%] —– (– OAFFC – CFC – CIFCC – SFC – SLFCA –)
• Asteroid City —– (3) [15.00%] —– (– OAFFC – CFC – OFCS –)
• Wonka —– (2) [10.00%] —– (– CIFCC – CCA –)
• American Fiction —– (1) [5.00%] —– (– CDG –)
• Chevalier —– (1) [5.00%] —– (– HCA –)
• Ferrari —– (1) [5.00%] —– (– HFC –)
• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 —– (1) [5.00%] —– (– HCA –)
• The Haunted Mansion —– (1) [5.00%] —– (– CDG –)
• The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes —– (1) [5.00%] —– (– CDG –)
• The Little Mermaid —– (1) [5.00%] —– (– CDG –)
• Maestro —– (1) [5.00%] —– (– CDG –)
• May December —– (1) [5.00%] —– (– CDG –)
• Nyad —– (1) [5.00%] —– (– CDG –)
• Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire —– (1) [5.00%] —– (– CDG –)
• Renfield —– (1) [5.00%] —– (– CDG –)
• Saltburn —– (1) [5.00%] —– (– CDG –)

Locks & Near Locks: Poor Things and Barbie are easily the most recognized costume designs and a competition without either of them is unthinkable.

Goods: None, though Killers of the Flower Moon‘s precursor count would make it a fitting inclusion here, but that’s not how I chose to rate it.

Borderline/Predicted: That’s because Killers of the Flower Moon isn’t so far removed that its period feels creative/inventive. I’m sure there are some Native American designs in the film that might bolster its chances, but it’s not the kind of film that just stands up and shouts “I have costumes!” That’s why it is listed here. That said, it probably has a better chance than one of the two others I predicted, the heavily period Napoleon and Wonka. Both would have seemed like no-brainer choices were it not for their anemic representation in the precursors. Napoleon at least has as many nominations as Oppenheimer in the field, but Wonka has been mysteriously under-performing lately. Two citations, neither of which were from the Costume Designers Guild, are certainly concerning and if costumers aren’t that interested, then what hope does it have?

Borderline/Not Predicted: Even The Color Purple, which has severely underperformed, didn’t get nominated at CDG. It, Chevalier, Asteroid City, and Oppenheimer are all on the verge of nominations and I could see any one of them replacing Napoleon or Wonka, possibly even Killers. Why I’m not more hopeful for Oppenheimer is that the 1940s aren’t all that long ago and the costumes in it aren’t leap-off-the-screen imaginative. I am surprised the CDG even went for the film, but here we are. It’s probably the film with the best hope dwindling the farthest down on my list and I just can’t bring myself to give it the nomination.

In Summary: Anything could happen, including a surprise. It’s why there are only two films I consider locks and all the rest are scrambling for those final three slots. I fully expect to be the most wrong in this category.

Best Original Score

My Predictions:

• Oppenheimer – Ludwig Göransson (c-5/11, n-5/11, o-1/16) — Lock —
• Poor Things – Jerskin Fendrix (c-10/17, n- 12/19) — Near Lock —
• Killers of the Flower Moon – Robbie Robertson (c-5/11, n-9/20) — Near Lock —
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – Daniel Pemberton (c-12/19, n-1/16) — Good —
• The Zone of Interest – Mica Levi (c-9/20, n-12/19) — Borderline —
• American Symphony – Jon Batiste (c-12/21) — Borderline —
• Society of the Snow – Michael Giacchino (c-12/19) — Borderline —
• Barbie – Alexandre Desplat (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• The Boy and the Heron – Joe Hisaishi (c-12/19) — Borderline —
• Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny – John Williams (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Elemental – Thomas Newman (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Saltburn – Anthony Willis (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• The Color Purple – Kris Bowers (c-12/21) — Borderline —
• The Holdovers – Mark Orton (c-5/11) — Doubtful —
• May December – Marcelo Zarvos (c-12/19) — Doubtful —

Precursors:

• Oppenheimer —– (28) [96.55%] —– (– HMM – SCL – BAFTA – GG – Grammy – HCA – Sat – AFCA – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Killers of the Flower Moon —– (27) [93.10%] —– (– HMM – SCL – BAFTA – GG – HCA – Sat – AFCA – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse —– (22) [75.86%] —– (– BAFTA – GG – HCA – Sat – AFCA – CIFCC – CCA – DFC – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Poor Things —– (19) [65.52%] —– (– BAFTA – GG – HCA – Sat – AFCA – CFC – COFC – CCA – DFC – GFCA – GWNY – HFCS – IFJA – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SFC – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• The Zone of Interest —– (10) [34.48%] —– (– SCL – GG – CFC – DFC – GFCA – LFCC – OFCS – PCC – SFC – SLFCA –)
• Barbie —– (6) [20.69%] —– (– Grammy – AFCA – CFC – CIFCC – CCA – HFC –)
• The Boy and the Heron —– (5) [17.24%] —– (– SCL – GG – CIFCC – FFC – HFCS –)
• The Killer —– (5) [17.24%] —– (– HMM – GWNY – IFJA – LVFCC – NCFC –)
• American Fiction —– (4) [13.79%] —– (– HMM – SCL – Sat – COFC –)
• Saltburn —– (4) [13.79%] —– (– HMM – SCL – BAFTA – HCA –)
• Society of the Snow —– (3) [10.34%] —– (– Sat – CCA – LVFCC –)
• American Symphony —– (2) [6.90%] —– (– SCL – HFC –)
• Godzilla Minus One —– (2) [6.90%] —– (– COFC – IFJA –)
• May December —– (2) [6.90%] —– (– IFJA – SLFCA –)
• Asteroid City —– (1) [3.45%] —– (– IFJA –)
• Chevalier —– (1) [3.45%] —– (– HMM –)
• The Color Purple —– (1) [3.45%] —– (– WAFCA –)
• Elemental —– (1) [3.45%] —– (– HCA –)
• Ferrari —– (1) [3.45%] —– (– SCL –)
• How to Blow Up a Pipeline —– (1) [3.45%] —– (– IFJA –)
• Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny —– (1) [3.45%] —– (– Grammy –)
• Mushka —– (1) [3.45%] —– (– SCL –)
• Nyad —– (1) [3.45%] —– (– HMM –)
• Rustin —– (1) [3.45%] —– (– HMM –)
• Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie —– (1) [3.45%] —– (– SCL –)
• Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem —– (1) [3.45%] —– (– IFJA –)
• A Thousand and One —– (1) [3.45%] —– (– FFC –)

Locks & Near Locks: Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Poor Things have been the dominant forces in the composing world this precursor season with plenty of recognition between them. I could even see any one of them winning.

Goods: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is merely “good” not because it hasn’t done well but because it just doesn’t feel like something the Academy would recognize. That said, I was convinced by its BAFTA nomination that it’s a solid fourth-place finisher.

Borderline/Predicted: That leaves only one slot for nomination and there are nine films I could see taking that spot. What leads me to believe that The Zone of Interest lands in fifth is not the lack of BAFTA citation, which was a bit puzzling, but because Mica Levi is a prior nominee combined with the fact that The Zone of Interest seems to be performing admirably better in precursor season than expected.

Borderline/Not Predicted: Saltburn was an utterly unusual choice for BAFTA and were it not for that nomination, I would have completely discounted its chances. That said, American Symphony, Society of the Snow, Barbie, The Boy and the Heron, and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny all have more going for them in terms of Oscar potential. American Symphony gets a big boost by the fact that it’s the entire reason for being for the documentary. The documentary is about its composition. I wouldn’t be surprised if symphony-loving Oscar voters wouldn’t give it the fifth spot easily. Indiana Jones has the perennial John Williams factor while The Boy and the Heron has the long-unnominated Joe Hisaishi as a potential career accolade pending. Society of the Snow‘s score is one of its most recognized and applauded elements while Barbie might get in just because of its song score (even though that’s not what this category is intended to recognize and is the reason I don’t have it higher).

Other Citations: Could one of the undiscussed four, The Color Purple, Elemental, The Holdovers, and May December make the cut? Yes, but none of them are likely.

In Summary: As one of a handful of categories with shortlists, we don’t have a lot of options to select nominees from, but even with a broad range of candidates, it’s easy to isolate the few that have gotten most of the praise and push those into the nominations circle.

Best Sound

My Predictions:

• Oppenheimer (c-5/11, n-5/11, o-5/11) — Lock —
• Maestro (c-5/11, n-9/20) — Good —
• Ferrari (c-12/19, n-1/16) — Good —
• Napoleon (c-5/11, n-11/20) — Borderline —
• Killers of the Flower Moon (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Borderline —
• The Zone of Interest (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• Barbie (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• The Creator (c-12/21) — Borderline —
• Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• The Killer (c-12/19) — Doubtful —

Precursors:

• Oppenheimer —– (8) [61.54%] —– (– CAS – MPSE – BAFTA – HCA – Sat – HFC – NCFC – SDFC –)
• Maestro —– (7) [53.85%] —– (– CAS – MPSE – BAFTA – HCA – Sat – HFC – SDFC –)
• Ferrari —– (6) [46.15%] —– (– CAS – MPSE – BAFTA – HCA – Sat – HFC –)
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse —– (5) [38.46%] —– (– CAS – MPSE – HCA – HFC – NCFC –)
• The Zone of Interest —– (5) [38.46%] —– (– MPSE – BAFTA – LFCC – NCFC – SDFC –)
• American Symphony —– (3) [23.08%] —– (– CAS – MPSE – Sat –)
• John Wick: Chapter 4 —– (3) [23.08%] —– (– MPSE – HCA – NCFC –)
• The Killer —– (3) [23.08%] —– (– MPSE – HCA – NCFC –)
• Killers of the Flower Moon —– (3) [23.08%] —– (– CAS – MPSE – Sat –)
• Napoleon —– (3) [23.08%] —– (– MPSE – Sat – HFC –)
• 32 Sounds —– (2) [15.38%] —– (– CAS – MPSE –)
• Barbie —– (2) [15.38%] —– (– CAS – MPSE –)
• Elemental —– (2) [15.38%] —– (– CAS – MPSE –)
• Godzilla Minus One —– (2) [15.38%] —– (– MPSE – SDFC –)
• Mission: Impossible – Deck Reckoning Part One —– (2) [15.38%] —– (– BAFTA – SDFC –)
• Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie —– (2) [15.38%] —– (– CAS – MPSE –)
• The Super Mario Bros. Movie —– (2) [15.38%] —– (– CAS – MPSE –)
• Taylor Swift: The Era Tour —– (2) [15.38%] —– (– CAS – MPSE –)
• Anatomy of a Fall —– (1) [7.69%] —– (– MPSE –)
• The Boy and the Heron —– (1) [7.69%] —– (– CAS –)
• The First Slam Dunk —– (1) [7.69%] —– (– LFCC –)
• Gran Turismo —– (1) [7.69%] —– (– MPSE –)
• Little Richard: I Am Everything —– (1) [7.69%] —– (– CAS –)
• Migration —– (1) [7.69%] —– (– MPSE –)
• Mourning in Lod —– (1) [7.69%] —– (– MPSE –)
• Poor Things —– (1) [7.69%] —– (– MPSE –)
• Society of the Snow —– (1) [7.69%] —– (– MPSE –)
• Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem —– (1) [7.69%] —– (– CAS –)

Locks & Near Locks: Oppenheimer likely being the lead contender to win, is the only lock in this category. It’s the only film I can’t imagine them ignoring.

Goods: Maestro and Ferrari are almost to that point, but something about both candidates makes it difficult to deny that they could be forgotten. Both are BAFTA nominees, which gets them their good standing.

Borderline/Predicted: Napoleon is largely set on a battlefield and we know the Academy’s voting members love them some war movies. That said, they love them more as Sound Editing nominees and that category doesn’t exist anymore. It’s been shoehorned here because it totally makes sense (not). Anyway, it probably has a better chance than the rest of the shortlisters. Killers of the Flower Moon has a decent amount of violence in it, so I could imagine that playing into its nomination. That and its Cinema Audio Society/Motion Picture Sound Editors dual citation being the other determining factor.

Borderline/Not Predicted: That said, The Zone of Interest would be the least shocking of the potential replacers. It doesn’t have the CAS nomination, but it got in at MPSE and was a BAFTA nominee. Since that’s one of the categories that BAFTA voters nominate without the intervention of a committee, I think it has the upper hand to replace Killers or Napoleon. Barbie made the citation list from the Motion Picture Sound Editors, but not at BAFTA or CAS and that makes it a weak competitor. The Creator has that sci-fi vibe that has often been recognized in this category, but neither CAS or MPSE nominated the film, so it may not be as strong as we might have thought otherwise. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One has a BAFTA nomination and that’s the only thing giving it any hope of an Oscar nomination. CAS and MPSE didn’t recognize it and that’s the only reason it isn’t higher in my list of replacements.

Other Citations: That only leaves one shortlister, The Killer, that probably doesn’t have much hope in spite of an MPSE nomination.

In Summary: Still, it’s possible that any of the ten shortlist titles could make the cut and I wouldn’t be shocked to see if any of the borderlines get in (which is my reason for putting them there in the first place, naturally).

Best Adapted Screenplay

My Predictions:

• American Fiction – Cord Jefferson (c-9/20, n-9/20, o-12/19) — Good —
• Poor Things – Tony McNamara (c-5/18, n-9/20) — Lock —
• Barbie – Noah Baumbach, Greta Gerwig (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Borderline —
• Killers of the Flower Moon – Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Borderline —
• Oppenheimer – Christopher Nolan (c-5/11, n-1/16) — Borderline —
• All of Us Strangers – Andrew Haigh (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• The Zone of Interest – Jonathan Glazer (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• Origin – Ava DuVernay (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. – Kelly Fremon Craig (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• BlackBerry – Matt Johnson, Matthew Miller (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• The Color Purple – Marcus Gardley (c-5/11) — Doubtful —

Precursors:

• Oppenheimer —– (30) [83.33%] —– (– BAFTA – GG – HCA – Sat – USC – AARP – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFC – FCAUK – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LFCC – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• American Fiction —– (28) [77.78%] —– (– BAFTA – HCA – Sat – Spirit – USC – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFC – FFC – GFCA – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Poor Things —– (28) [77.78%] —– (– BAFTA – GG – Gotham – HCA – Sat – USC – AARP – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – DFC – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SFC – SFFC – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Killers of the Flower Moon —– (25) [69.44%] —– (– GG – HCA – Sat – USC – AARP – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFC – FCAUK – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – IFJA – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret —– (16) [44.44%] —– (– HCA – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – IFJA – LVFCC – SDFC – SLFCA – UFCA –)
• All of Us Strangers —– (9) [25.00%] —– (– BAFTA – Gotham – Sat – CCA – DFC – GWNY – LFCC – NCFC – SFFC –)
• The Zone of Interest —– (9) [25.00%] —– (– BAFTA – Gotham – Sat – AWFJ – CFC – OFCS – SDFC – SFFC – SLFCA –)
• Barbie —– (3) [8.33%] —– (– AARP – HFCS – IFJA –)
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse —– (3) [8.33%] —– (– HCA – IFJA – SFFC –)
• Origin —– (2) [5.56%] —– (– USC – WAFCA –)
• Beau Is Afraid —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– IFJA –)
• Ferrari —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– HFC –)
• How to Blow Up a Pipeline —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– IFJA –)
• Knock at the Cabin —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– IFJA –)
• Saltburn —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– CCA –)

Locks & Near Locks: Poor Things is the only lock and that’s because this is one of the most highly competitive categories this year and not even the likely Oscar winner, American Fiction, is guaranteed a slot though I really think Poor Things is.

Goods: Speaking of American Fiction, I’m fitting it in here. Originally, I had it as a borderline candidate, but that BAFTA nomination for a distinctly “American” topic leads me to believe it may still be in “good” standing.

Borderline/Predicted: Were this any other year, Oppenheimer might be in the “good” position and probably should be, but there’s something that’s been scratching at the back of my mind suggesting this is the one category where a shocker will drop Oppenheimer. Other than being a feat of directorial prowess and immense research, this doesn’t feel like a film that hinges on a great screenplay. Even a serviceable one could have resulted in the film we saw. While this isn’t quite a Titanic, it feels like the kind of movie that gets overlooked for its screenwriting in spite of plenty of precursor attention. That’s why I have both Barbie and Killers of the Flower Moon more likely.

Barbie is borderline only because it went from the safe competition of Original Screenplay into the wolf’s den of Adapted Screenplay where the competition is truly fierce. That said, it is one of the year’s most honored screenplays and other than as a boycott of the Adapted placement, I can’t see the Academy’s writers ignoring it. Killers of the Flower Moon is another film that, like Oppenheimer doesn’t seem like a feat of great writing. It, unlike Oppenheimer, also doesn’t have the benefit of a BAFTA nomination. Those went to All of Us Strangers and The Zone of Interest. Most of us are trying to figure out what the shock omission will be and while I think Oppenheimer will more likely be the film, Killers has BAFTA saying that it will be.

Borderline/Not Predicted: All of Us Strangers and The Zone of Interest sit right at the top of my list of potential fillers in this category simply because they are both being well recognized for their screenwriting efforts and those BAFTA nominations really give them hope. Origin is one of those films that’s quietly building last-minute momentum. The surprise USC Scripter nomination is what is bolstering its credentials at this point, so I don’t really think it will surpass any of the seven films above it on the list. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. and BlackBerry were both well recognized but are unlucky to be competing in years with such a wealth of adapted screenplays to choose from.

Other Citations: The only reason The Color Purple is still on the list is because it’s still a long-shot contender for Best Picture. I don’t really think it will be nominated, but I do think there will be a shock in this category.

In Summary: Barbie threw a high heel into this category by not realizing it was going to get pushed into Adapted in the first place. The Academy is nothing if not consistent on its adaptation rules. As such, this category has been far more competitive than it might have been without that film’s presence. That said, even without Barbie, landing on five would have been difficult.

Best Supporting Actor

My Predictions:

• Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer (c-5/11, n-7/22, o-7/22) — Lock —
• Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon (c-5/11, n-1/16) — Good —
• Ryan Gosling – Barbie (c-5/11, n-7/22) — Good —
• Dominic Sessa – The Holdovers (c-12/19, n-1/18) — Borderline —
• Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction (c-12/19, n-12/19) — Borderline —
• Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things (c-5/18) — Borderline —
• Willem Dafoe – Poor Things (c-5/18) — Borderline —
• Paul Mescal – All of Us Strangers (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• Charles Melton – May December (c-12/19) — Borderline —
• Glenn Howerton – BlackBerry (c-1/16) — Doubtful —

Precursors:

• Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer —– (33) [91.67%] —– (– SAG – BAFTA – GG – HCA – Sat – AARP – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FCAUK – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Ryan Gosling – Barbie —– (32) [88.89%] —– (– SAG – BAFTA – GG – Gotham – HCA – Sat – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFC – FCAUK – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Charles Melton – May December —– (29) [80.56%] —– (– GG – Gotham – HCA – Sat – Spirit – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FCAUK – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – IFJA – LFCC – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things —– (27) [75.00%] —– (– GG – Sat – AARP – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FCAUK – FFC – GWNY – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – UFCA –)
• Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon —– (17) [47.22%] —– (– SAG – BAFTA – GG – Sat – AARP – AFCA – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – MMCG – NCFC – OFCS – SFC –)
• Dominic Sessa – The Holdovers —– (14) [38.89%] —– (– BAFTA – HCA – Sat – CIFCC – COFC – DFWFCA – FFC – GWNY – HFCS – IFJA – PCC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction —– (11) [30.56%] —– (– SAG – Spirit – AWFJ – CCA – GFCA – MMCG – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – WAFCA –)
• Glenn Howerton – BlackBerry —– (9) [25.00%] —– (– Gotham – HCA – Spirit – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – FCAUK – GFCA – LVFCC –)
• Willem Dafoe – Poor Things —– (5) [13.89%] —– (– SAG – GG – AARP – IFJA – PCC –)
• Colman Domingo – The Color Purple —– (2) [5.56%] —– (– HCA – AARP –)
• John Magaro – Past Lives —– (2) [5.56%] —– (– OAFFC – HFC –)
• Paul Mescal – All of Us Strangers —– (2) [5.56%] —– (– BAFTA – LFCC –)
• Jacob Elordi – Saltburn —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– BAFTA –)
• Jamie Foxx – They Cloned Tyrone —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– Gotham –)
• Noah Galvin – Theater Camp —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– Spirit –)
• Ben Whishaw – Passages —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– Spirit –)
• Donnie Yen – John Wick: Chapter 4 —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– FFC –)

Locks & Near Locks: There was a point in precursor season where you could have argued that this category was nearly locked down. Yet, we’re looking at only one lock and two fairly good possibilities and a lot of confusion. Starting with the lock, eventual winner Robert Downey Jr. should be prepping a better speech than his Critics Choice one because he’s going to need it. No point in not locking him in for a nomination.

Goods: You could probably also lock Robert De Niro and Ryan Gosling for nods. Their slightly weaker profiles (in spite of precursor dominance) were affirmed by BAFTA, so I can’t imagine either missing out at this point.

Borderline/Predicted: While other categories with borderline possibilities aren’t nearly as broad as I probably think they are, Supporting Actor is. Of the six individuals I have listed as borderline, any one of them could be an Oscar nominee tomorrow. The two I settled on as nominees are for slightly different reasons. Dominic Sessa was a candidate I wasn’t sold on until he landed that BAFTA nomination. I always thought he had a little potential to be swept up in The Holdovers‘ wave, but BAFTA assured me that he’s probably in like Flynn. Sterling K. Brown, on the other hand, is an incredibly weak fifth-place finisher and were he not the only Black candidate, I probably wouldn’t seat him as a nominee, but I think that might give a slight boost to his chances.

Borderline/Not Predicted: Mark Ruffalo and Willem Dafoe are both cusp nominees but both failed to get in at BAFTA. I think Ruffalo’s British accent might have disrupted his prospects there. He also missed out at SAG, which was perhaps the more damning result. Dafoe, on the other hand, did show up at SAG. Perhaps its his vaunted reputation that helped, but having the more sympathetic character might have also been a determining factor. Paul Mescal’s BAFTA citation is the only reason I’m still considering him a borderline contender. He’s made it to the Oscar nominees circle before and with him seemingly everywhere, that has likely bolstered his profile.

Poor Charles Melton. After Downey Jr. and Gosling, Melton has the most precursor citations. He’s also got numerous awards for his work in May December. Yet, his lack of SAG nomination and his inability to get on the longlist at BAFTA have convinced me that this is a critics-only choice that never manifests into Oscar recognition. Too bad for him because this really could have been his breakthrough year.

Other Citations: The unfortunate part for Glenn Howerton is that he had one thing going for him: Bird-in-the-Hand thinking. BlackBerry was one of the first and earliest screeners that went out. This enabled him to pick out a solid number of nominations. Yet, none of the major groups (Globes, SAG, CCA, or BAFTA) singled him out. Were he in a less competitive year, he might have been a borderline nominee, but this year, he isn’t.

In Summary: Going from five-to-six serious competitors to nine has turned this from a pretty easy category to predict into one of the most challenging.

Best Supporting Actress

My Predictions:

• Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers (c-9/20, n-9/20, o-12/19) — Lock —
• Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple (c-11/20, n-11/20) — Borderline —
• Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer (c-5/11, n-1/16) — Borderline —
• Jodie Foster – Nyad (c-5/11, n-9/20) — Borderline —
• Sandra Hüller – The Zone of Interest (c-12/19, n-1/20) — Borderline —
• America Ferrera – Barbie (c-12/19) — Borderline —
• Rosamund Pike – Saltburn (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Penélope Cruz – Ferrari (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• Julianne Moore – May December (c-8/13) — Borderline —
• Claire Foy – All of Us Strangers (c-1/20) — Borderline —
• Rachel McAdams – Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. (c-1/16) — Borderline —
• Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon (c-6/27) — Borderline —
• Taraji P. Henson – The Color Purple (c-5/11) — Doubtful —

Precursors:

• Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers —– (35) [97.22%] —– (– SAG – BAFTA – GG – Gotham – HCA – Sat – Spirit – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FCAUK – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Rachel McAdams – Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret —– (23) [63.89%] —– (– Gotham – HCA – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIFCC – DFC – FCAUK – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LVFCC – MMCG – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA –)
• Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer —– (22) [61.11%] —– (– SAG – BAFTA – GG – Sat – OAFFC – AFCA – CIFCC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FCAUK – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HFCS – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Julianne Moore – May December —– (20) [55.56%] —– (– GG – HCA – Sat – AARP – AFCA – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFWFCA – FCAUK – FFC – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SLFCA –)
• Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple —– (16) [44.44%] —– (– SAG – BAFTA – GG – HCA – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – GFCA – HFCS – NCFC – OFCS – SFC – WAFCA –)
• Jodie Foster – Nyad —– (12) [33.33%] —– (– SAG – GG – AARP – CFC – COFC – CCA – DFWFCA – HFC – LVFCC – SDFC – SFFC – WAFCA –)
• Rosamund Pike – Saltburn —– (11) [30.56%] —– (– BAFTA – GG – Sat – AWFJ – DFC – FCAUK – HFCS – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – PCC –)
• America Ferrera – Barbie —– (10) [27.78%] —– (– HCA – Sat – AWFJ – OAFFC – CIFCC – CCA – GWNY – MMCG – NCFC – UFCA –)
• Sandra Hüller – The Zone of Interest —– (9) [25.00%] —– (– BAFTA – Gotham – AWFJ – CFC – LFCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – UFCA –)
• Penélope Cruz – Ferrari —– (7) [19.44%] —– (– SAG – Gotham – COFC – GFCA – HFC – PCC – SFC –)
• Viola Davis – Air —– (6) [16.67%] —– (– HCA – AARP – HFC – IFJA – SLFCA – WAFCA –)
• Claire Foy – All of Us Strangers —– (3) [8.33%] —– (– BAFTA – Gotham – LFCC –)
• Juliette Binoche – The Taste of Things —– (2) [5.56%] —– (– Gotham – Sat –)
• Anne Hathaway – Eileen —– (2) [5.56%] —– (– Spirit – GWNY –)
• Erika Alexander – American Fiction —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– Spirit –)
• Taraji P. Henson – The Color Purple —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– AARP –)
• Marin Ireland – Eileen —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– Spirit –)
• Catalina Saavedra – Rotting in the Sun —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– Spirit –)
• Leslie Uggams – American Fiction —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– AARP –)
• Sigourney Weaver – Master Gardener —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– FFC –)

Locks & Near Locks: Da’Vine Joy Randolph is yet another going-to-win candidate this year so her exclusion would send shockwaves through the industry.

Goods: I can’t really say that any of the remaining candidates are guaranteed a nomination. It’s just too volatile a category.

Borderline/Predicted: Although Danielle Brooks, Jodie Foster, and Emily Blunt are likely to be nominated, I wouldn’t consider any of them a sure thing at this point. The Color Purple went from a major contender to an afterthought pretty quickly. Brooks has surprisingly held on most of Oscar season, but her chances have always been marginal at best. The same is true of Jodie Foster who makes her first major push at an Oscar nomination in many years. While we all thought Annette Bening was going to be the major contender from Nyad, Foster has inserted herself into a far weaker category and become a mainstay. If it weren’t for the popularity of Oppenheimer, would anyone have thought Emily Blunt a contender? She has a small role with very little to do in the film except for being antagonistic towards the men who are trying to destroy her husband. It’s a pretty easy performance for her to give and after all the years of being ignored for far better work, it’s a bit surprising that Oppenheimer is the film she’ll get her first nomination for.

That said, all three of those have a better claim to a slot than America Ferrera. Ferrera’s position in the category is more wishful than logical thinking at this point. Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling have gotten most of the attention, but Ferrera’s plot-turning monologue is legendary and plenty of people think so. That has bolstered her chances at a nomination quite high. Her speech at the Critics Choice Association might have pushed her over the top were Oscar voting not almost over at the time she gave it. That’s why I have her borderline. That and because she didn’t get a SAG or a BAFTA nomination for the performance. That reason alone is why I’m going back to Sandra Hüller for the fifth slot. Hüller DID get that BAFTA nomination and while getting two nominations in a single year is a rare feat, I suspect the popularity of both Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest may propel her into lead and supporting categories to become the first actor in Oscar history to get two nominations in a single year for foreign-language-based performances.

Borderline/Not Predicted: I won’t entirely count out Ferrera, but some of her other borderliners also have reasons to believe they could get the nod. Chief among these are Penélope Cruz and Rosamund Pike. Cruz scored at SAG while Pike scored at BAFTA. Pike has that Globe nomination as well, which helps. That said, neither actor is in a film that will be a major Oscar player and both are actors who’ve been nominated before. What gives Cruz the edge is that she’s got far more nominations and a lot of respect. For some, she’s also the only Hispanic actor in competition this year and thus may have a well of support Pike wouldn’t. Never count out Julianne Moore or Claire Foy either. Moore has a Globe nomination and is the fourth-most-nominated supporting actress this year. Her film isn’t well loved, though. Foy is in a similar position. She did get in at BAFTA, but her film has been struggling with American critics and organizations. Neither has the best chance at Oscar consideration, but I wouldn’t count them out either.

That leaves two candidates that are wonky for different reasons. Rachel McAdams plays the matriarch in Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. While many have recognized her work as superlative, there’s equal resistance to hers being the most rewardable performance in the film. Both star Abby Ryder Fortson and supporting Kathy Bates have gotten better praise from some circles. Why is McAdams showing up with the second-most-nominations of the season? Who knows, but she didn’t get nominations at the Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, or BAFTA. Blunt, who has one fewer precursor citation, has three of those. That’s why McAdams’ candidacy is weird. Of course, she also famously scored a nomination for Spotlight in spite of not being much on the radar.

The other is Lily Gladstone. Gladstone’s performance in Killers of the Flower Moon was originally thought to be supporting and we all had her penciled into the Supporting Actress race where she might have actually won. Somewhere along the line, she decided to go lead and she was supported for it. Many of us thought that was a bad decision since there was stiff competition in the lead category. Yet, as precursor season started, she landed award after award for lead, cementing her status as a lead. And she picked up plenty of citations in that category, but then BAFTA completely ignored her. How does someone who’s been a leading contender all season suddenly disappear at BAFTA? My suspicion is the belief that her performance is supporting and not leading. Of course, BAFTA’s wonky committee system might have been her undoing, but I wonder if we might not be in a Kate Winslet for The Reader kind of situation. The same thing happened there but in reverse. Winslet was doing great in the supporting category and most considered her a shoo-in for a nomination and a win, but the Academy nominated her in lead instead. She still won. The same, but the opposite could be happening with Gladstone. We’ll just have to see what happens Tuesday morning.

Other Citations: Taraji P. Henson is playing a role that previously earned Margaret Avery an Oscar nomination. It was thought that she, not Brooks, would be the primary contender from the film. While Brooks is following Oprah Winfrey’s trajectory in the same role, Henson has been almost ignored. She got a single nomination from the AARP and that tells you all you need to know about why she’s still on my list. Stranger things have happened though, and a last-minute surge of support for The Color Purple could help her out, but I sincerely doubt it.

In Summary: There’s a lot of volatility in this category. I struggle to find a scenario where I’m confident in all five nominees. Expect surprises.

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Group 2

After the break, the Academy will announce its next batch of contenders, so let’s do the same.

Best Documentary Short Subject

My Predictions:

• The ABCs of Book Banning (c-12/21, n-1/16, o-1/16)
• Camp Courage (c-12/21, n-1/16)
• Deciding Vote (c-12/21, n-1/16)
• The Last Repair Shop (c-12/21, n-1/16)
• Last Song from Kabul (c-12/21, n-1/16)
• The Barber of Little Rock (c-12/21)
• Bear (c-12/21)
• Between Earth & Sky (c-12/21)
• Black Girls Play: The Story of Hand Games (c-12/21)
• How We Get Free (c-12/21)
• If Dreams Were Lightning: Rural Healthcare Crisis (c-12/21)
• Islands in Between (c-12/21)
• N?i Nai & Wài Pó (c-12/21)
• Oasis (c-12/21)
• Wings of Dust (c-12/21)

Precursors:

• The ABCs of Book Banning —– (2) [50.00%] —– (– HCA – CCA –)
• The Last Repair Shop —– (2) [50.00%] —– (– HCA – CCA –)
• The Barber of Little Rock —– (1) [25.00%] —– (– CCA –)
• Between Earth & Sky —– (1) [25.00%] —– (– CCA –)
• Keys to the City —– (1) [25.00%] —– (– CCA –)
• Last Song from Kabul —– (1) [25.00%] —– (– CCA –)
• The Veiled City —– (1) [25.00%] —– (– LFCC –)

General Commentary: A small, unrepresentative group of members review and vote for these shortlisters. It’s why there are quite a few strange situations cropping up in this category. Still, there are a small number of precursors, so some of the titles have already gotten attention. Who knows, though, how many of these shorts, were even viewed by these groups. As such, I wouldn’t trust any of them to be that accurate. Ultimately, it comes down to which subject matters seem most interesting and might appeal to the tendencies of this group. These are my choices, but they could all miss for all any of us know.

Best Animated Feature

My Predictions:

• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – Sony (c-5/11, n-5/11, o-6/25) — Lock —
• The Boy and the Heron – GKIDS (c-9/20, n-9/20) — Lock —
• Robot Dreams – Neon (c-12/7, n-12/19) — Borderline —
• Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem – Paramount (c-8/13, n-1/16) — Good —
• Nimona – Netflix (c-9/20, n-9/20) — Borderline —
• Elemental – Pixar (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Suzume (c-12/7) — Borderline —
• Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget – Netflix (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• The Super Mario Bros. Movie – Illumination (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia (c-12/7) — Borderline —
• They Shot the Piano Player (c-12/7) — Borderline —
• The Amazing Maurice (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
• Blue Giant (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
• Chang’an (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
• Deep Sea (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
• The First Slam Dunk (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
• The Inventor (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
• Leo (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
• Lonely Castle in the Mirror (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
• The Magician’s Elephant (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
• Migration – Illumination (c-5/11) — Doubtful —
• Miraculous: Ladybug & Cat Noir, The Movie (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
• The Monkey King (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
• My Love Affair with Marriage (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
• Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
• The Peasants (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
• Perlimps (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
• Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken – DreamWorks (c-5/11) — Doubtful —
• Titina (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
• Trolls Band Together – DreamWorks (c-5/11) — Doubtful —
• Unicorn Wars (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
• Warrior King (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
• Wish – Disney (c-5/11) — Doubtful —

Precursors:

• The Boy and the Heron —– (33) [94.29%] —– (– Annie – PGA – BAFTA – GG – HCA – Sat – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse —– (32) [91.43%] —– (– Annie – CSA – PGA – BAFTA – GG – HCA – Sat – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FFC – GWNY – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem —– (28) [80.00%] —– (– Annie – CSA – PGA – HCA – Sat – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFC – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – HFCS – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Elemental —– (21) [60.00%] —– (– CSA – PGA – BAFTA – GG – HCA – Sat – OAFFC – AFCA – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFC – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – LVFCC – NCFC – PCC – SFFC – SLFCA – WAFCA –)
• Nimona —– (18) [51.43%] —– (– Annie – HCA – AWFJ – OAFFC – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – GWNY – HFCS – IFJA – MMCG – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Robot Dreams —– (15) [42.86%] —– (– Annie – Sat – AWFJ – CFC – FFC – GFCA – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LFCC – OFCS – SDFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA –)
• Suzume —– (9) [25.71%] —– (– Annie – GG – HCA – Sat – AFCA – FFC – IFJA – LFCC – SFC –)
• The Super Mario Bros. Movie —– (8) [22.86%] —– (– PGA – GG – CIFCC – DFC – GFCA – IFJA – LVFCC – MMCG –)
• Wish —– (4) [11.43%] —– (– CSA – GG – CCA – PCC –)
• Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget —– (2) [5.71%] —– (– BAFTA – SDFC –)
• Leo —– (2) [5.71%] —– (– CSA – CFC –)
• Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia —– (1) [2.86%] —– (– Annie –)
• Four Souls of Coyote —– (1) [2.86%] —– (– Annie –)
• The Inventor —– (1) [2.86%] —– (– Annie –)
• White Plastic Sky —– (1) [2.86%] —– (– Annie –)

Locks & Near Locks: Spider-Man: Across the Universe and The Boy and the Heron are the only titles that I feel confident won’t miss out on a nomination.

Goods: At one point, I didn’t think Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem could overcome the biases the Academy’s animators have, yet the film has been consistently recognized and picked up crucial Annie and PGA nominations. That said, I wouldn’t be honest if I said I didn’t have doubts about its potential. While I still think it’s a safe bet for a nomination, I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Academy went more art house for the remaining three slots.

Borderline/Predicted: Nimona picked up a nomination at the Annies, but it was the only major group to recognize it. BAFTA and Globe voters didn’t pick it. That said, Netflix has done quite well getting its films nominated at the Academy. They’ve done far better at the Annies in terms of awards, but with the Academy, I’m pretty sure they’ll allow this one in as their fourth choice. As to the fifth? That’s a tough call. Elemental and Robot Dreams are the two most nominated animated films remaining of the borderline contenders. That’s why I have them marked as such. The reason I went for Robot Dreams over Elemental is that Robot Dreams seems like the critically acclaimed independent animated film that this branch has given a boost to.

Borderline/Not Predicted: That doesn’t mean Elemental is out of it. It’s the only Disney and/or Pixar effort left that could contend and that might be enough to boost it into the race. That said, other independents are also champing at the bit for a nomination, including Suzume, Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia, and They Shot the Piano Player. Suzume and Ernest & Celestine were both nominated at the Annies. Suzume has solid reviews, but the Ernest & Celestine sequel hasn’t been nearly as highly rated as its Oscar-nominated predecessor. They Shot the Piano Player is the only one of these that hasn’t gotten any precursor citations and that’s why I put it at the bottom of the borderline list. It has potential, but is unlikely.

That leaves Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget and The Super Mario Bros. Movie are the only two borderlines I haven’t discussed yet. Chicken Run‘s reviews have been unimpressive but it did get a BAFTA nomination. That might signal a shift in thought at the Oscars. That said, it’s the most British feeling of the nominees and that alone might be the reason BAFTA nominated it. After all, it’s from the near-infallible Aardman and there is still a lot of love out there for the studio. Super Mario Bros. on the other hand was not well received by critics, but it was a box office sensation. That is why it got a PGA nomination for Best Animated Feature. It was also nominated by the Golden Globes. However, even the Critics Choice Association didn’t nominate it and they LOVE their populism. That should give anyone pause in voting for it. The other issue is that the Academy’s animation branch have a huge bias against content adapted from other mediums. The Simpsons Movie, The Lego Movie, and The Adventures of Tintin were all immensely better reviewed films that the Academy ignored. I wouldn’t expect them to make an exception for a film that even critics didn’t love.

Other Citations: There are numerous “Doubtful” selections on my list and most of them make up the portion of the list that almost no one has heard of. That’s most of this list and that alone will probably doom them. There are some A-list titles in here, though. The Inventor, Leo, Migration, Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie, Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken, Trolls Band Together, and Wish are all major films with varying levels of success at the box office. The reason they find themselves “doubtful” is because either their studios almost never score Oscar nominations or they were so poorly reviewed that it would be surprising to see them nominated. There’s one other title not among these that I am disappointed to not see doing better this season. I recently reviewed the trailer for The Peasants, which is in the same vein as the award-winning Loving Vincent. As in hundreds of oil painters made a film together and it looks magnificent. Yet, it has gotten no traction. Who knows why, but I wanted to mention it here in case the art-loving members of the branch decide surprisingly pay attention to any film, I think it might be this one.

In Summary: The category has some fluctuation to it, but also seems pretty set in its potential nominees and upsetters.

Best Cinematography

My Predictions:

• Oppenheimer – Hoyte Van Hoytema (c-5/11, n-5/11, o-5/11) — Lock —
• Maestro – Matthew Libatique (c-5/11, n-9/20) — Near Lock —
• Poor Things – Robbie Ryan (c-10/17, n-12/19) — Good —
• Killers of the Flower Moon – Rodrigo Prieto (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Good —
• El Conde – Edward Lachman (c-1/16, n-1/16) — Borderline —
• The Zone of Interest – Lukasz Zal (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• Saltburn – Linus Sandgren (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Barbie – Rodrigo Prieto (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Napoleon – Dariusz Wolski (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Asteroid City – Robert D. Yeoman (c-5/11) — Borderline —

Precursors:

• Oppenheimer —– (28) [93.33%] —– (– ASC – BAFTA – HCA – Sat – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFWFCA – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Killers of the Flower Moon —– (27) [90.00%] —– (– ASC – BAFTA – HCA – Sat – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFWFCA – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HFCS – IFJA – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Poor Things —– (24) [80.00%] —– (– ASC – BAFTA – HCA – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Maestro —– (18) [60.00%] —– (– ASC – BAFTA – HCA – Sat – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – COFC – CCA – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – IFJA – LVFCC – PCC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Barbie —– (13) [43.33%] —– (– AFCA – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – HFC – HFCS – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFFC – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• The Zone of Interest —– (10) [33.33%] —– (– BAFTA – AWFJ – CFC – CIFCC – FFC – IFJA – PCC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA –)
• Saltburn —– (7) [23.33%] —– (– HCA – Sat – OAFFC – CCA – HFCS – IFJA – LVFCC –)
• Asteroid City —– (4) [13.33%] —– (– CFC – IFJA – OFCS – SLFCA –)
• John Wick: Chapter 4 —– (4) [13.33%] —– (– HCA – FFC – IFJA – NCFC –)
• Napoleon —– (3) [10.00%] —– (– Sat – LVFCC – SDFC –)
• All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt —– (2) [6.67%] —– (– Spirit – GFCA –)
• Ferrari —– (2) [6.67%] —– (– Sat – HFC –)
• Beau Is Afraid —– (1) [3.33%] —– (– IFJA –)
• Chronicles of a Wandering Saint —– (1) [3.33%] —– (– Spirit –)
• El Conde —– (1) [3.33%] —– (– ASC –)
• The Creator —– (1) [3.33%] —– (– SFC –)
• The Holdovers —– (1) [3.33%] —– (– Spirit –)
• The Iron Claw —– (1) [3.33%] —– (– GWNY –)
• King Coal —– (1) [3.33%] —– (– ASC –)
• Kokomo City —– (1) [3.33%] —– (– ASC –)
• Mission —– (1) [3.33%] —– (– Sat –)
• Monica —– (1) [3.33%] —– (– Spirit –)
• Murder in Big Horn – Episode 1 —– (1) [3.33%] —– (– ASC –)
• Past Lives —– (1) [3.33%] —– (– LFCC –)
• We Grown Now —– (1) [3.33%] —– (– Spirit –)
• The Killer —– (0) [0.00%] —– (—)

Locks & Near Locks: There is little question that Oppenheimer, the frontrunner for the win, and Maestro are the main locks in this category. They are both the kinds of achievements the Academy loves to recognize and both have the BAFTA/American Society of Cinematographers seals of approval.

Goods: Likewise, Poor Things and Killers of the Flower Moon are probably assured nominations. They each have both prizes and they are both high on artistic achievement. That said, neither is so assured a nomination that they couldn’t be bumped off. It will be unlikely though.

Borderline/Predicted: That leaves El Conde edging out BAFTA nominee The Zone of Interst. Zone seems like an unusual choice, even for the Brits, so we can’t overestimate its potential, but the ASC picked El Conde. It’s a film that hasn’t gotten a lot of precursor attention but is from a major cinematographer, Edward Lachman. That alone may help it get a nomination, bolstered by its black-and-white photography, which is catnip for cinematographers these days. We’ve seen more foreign language black-and-white nominees sneak into this category in recent years than we can seriously discount.

Borderline/Not Predicted: The Zone of Interest, which is from Oscar-nominated cinematographer Lukasz Zal, can’t be counted out either and could very well be the fifth title. We could also see Linus Sundgren, Dariusz Wolski, and Robert D. Yeoman nominated. They are all likewise past Oscar nominees. Of course, Rodrigo Prieto could land a rare double nomination for his work on Barbie. What makes all of them, except Zone, unlikely is the lack of guild/BAFTA support.

In Summary: While the category might feel fairly solid, that volatile fifth slot is enough to make one question if anything is safe.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

My Predictions:

• Poor Things (c-9/20, n-9/20, o-12/19) — Lock —
• Oppenheimer (c-12/21, n-12/21) — Lock —
• Society of the Snow (c-12/21, n-12/21) — Good —
• Maestro (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Good —
• Golda (c-7/22, n-7/22) — Borderline —
• Beau Is Afraid (c-12/21) — Borderline —
• Napoleon (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• The Last Voyage of the Demeter (c-12/21) — Borderline —
• Killers of the Flower Moon (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Ferrari (c-12/21) — Doubtful —

All of the Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Makeup branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Precursors:

• Maestro —– (7) [58.33%] —– (– MHG – BAFTA – HCA – CIFCC – CCA – HFC – NCFC –)
• Poor Things —– (7) [58.33%] —– (– MHG – BAFTA – HCA – CIFCC – CCA – HFC – NCFC –)
• Barbie —– (5) [41.67%] —– (– MHG – HCA – CIFCC – CCA – NCFC –)
• Oppenheimer —– (5) [41.67%] —– (– MHG – BAFTA – CCA – HFC – NCFC –)
• The Color Purple —– (3) [25.00%] —– (– MHG – HCA – CCA –)
• Priscilla —– (3) [25.00%] —– (– CIFCC – CCA – NCFC –)
• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 —– (2) [16.67%] —– (– MHG – HCA –)
• Killers of the Flower Moon —– (2) [16.67%] —– (– BAFTA – HFC –)
• Candy Cane Lane —– (1) [8.33%] —– (– MHG –)
• Chevalier —– (1) [8.33%] —– (– MHG –)
• Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves —– (1) [8.33%] —– (– HCA –)
• Ferrari —– (1) [8.33%] —– (– HFC –)
• Golda —– (1) [8.33%] —– (– MHG –)
• The Haunted Mansion —– (1) [8.33%] —– (– MHG –)
• The Iron Claw —– (1) [8.33%] —– (– CIFCC –)
• Joy Ride —– (1) [8.33%] —– (– MHG –)
• Medusa Deluxe —– (1) [8.33%] —– (– LFCC –)
• Napoleon —– (1) [8.33%] —– (– BAFTA –)
• Nyad —– (1) [8.33%] —– (– MHG –)
• Pain Hustlers —– (1) [8.33%] —– (– MHG –)
• Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire —– (1) [8.33%] —– (– MHG –)
• Saltburn —– (1) [8.33%] —– (– MHG –)

Locks & Near Locks: Poor Things for its Dafoe makeup and Oppenheimer for its over-time aging makeup are both pretty much guaranteed nominations. BAFTA agreed.

Goods: They also agreed on Maestro and I suspect it is also pretty safe for a nomination, but there was a big dustup (an unnecessary one) over the prosthetic nose the non-Jewish Cooper dons to play Jewish Leonard Bernstein. Some were accusing the film of being anti-Semitic because of it. Yet, both Bernstein’s family and the Anti-Defamation League disagreed and the story eventually quieted down. That said, if there’s a reason the film doesn’t get nominated, that “controversy” might be the reason. My second “Good” rating is for Society of the Snow, a film that got zero precursor nominations, not even at BAFTA. It’s a shortlist candidate and the reason I’m predicting it for a nomination is the volume of frostbitten faces that dominate the film It’s a walking advertisement for great makeup effects. I think that alone may bolster its chances.

Borderline/Predicted: Golda is a film that didn’t generate the same controversy as Maestro, which shows how targeted that campaign was. Golda makes Dame Helen Mirren look exactly like Golda Meir. Why the comparison? Neither Cooper nor Mirren are Jewish. Perhaps it was because Cooper only had a prosthetic nose and Mirren’s was an entire facial transformation. It really shouldn’t matter. And that’s not the reason I have Golda nominated. I have it nominated because the makeup work is terrific. Just one look at the trailer was enough to know that this would be a major player. That said, it’s borderline because it’s a single character’s makeup and that is often enough to toss out a citation. At least with Maestro, the characters age through the film where as Golda is set during a single historical event.

Borderline/Not Predicted: Beau Is Afraid makes up Joaquin Phoenix to look like multiple different characters even though they are all Beau. The same reason I think Golda is weak is the same reason I think this film might struggle. It’s only for a single character. Napoleon on the other hand has several more, all of which have historical period makeup and hairstyling to handle. Throw in dirty battlefields and you have a recipe to for a nomination. The Last Voyage of the Demeter is another period film that fits into the same Napoleonic profile. That said, it’s a horror film and has more intense makeup for its vampiric character, so it might just have a better or worse chance on both counts. Finally, we have Killers of the Flower Moon. Something in the film appealed to the makeup branch, so it has a shot. Since it’s also a major Oscar contender, that might bolster its chances. That said, I was very close to putting this one down as doubtful simply because it wouldn’t make sense.

Other Citations: That leaves our actual only doubtful. Ferrari looks like it might have a lot of makeup, but like Killers, it doesn’t quite have the profile of a film that would be nominated for makeup. That this film is also doing poorly in the run-up to the Oscars, that’s why it’s down as “doubtful.”

In Summary: With such a small list of candidates, it’s difficult not to say that anything can happen. This is a category that has been rife with surprises throughout its history, so I can’t help but think we might be in for some shocks. We already had one when Barbie wasn’t shortlisted, but we must learn that the category is only nominally about “Hairstyling,” very few, if any, films have ever been nominated solely because of their hairstyling work.

Best Production Design

My Predictions:

• Barbie – Sarah Greenwood; Katie Spencer (c-5/11, n-5/11, o-5/11) — Lock —
• Poor Things – Shona Heath, James Price; Zsuzsa Mihalek (c-10/17, n-12/19) — Lock —
• Oppenheimer – Ruth De Jong; Claire Kaufman, Adam Willis (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Borderline —
• Asteroid City – Adam Stockhausen; Kris Moran (c-5/11, n-12/19) — Borderline —
• Wonka – Nathan Crowley; Laura Ng (c-5/11, n-9/20) — Borderline —
• Killers of the Flower Moon – Jack Fisk; Adam Willis (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• The Zone of Interest – Chris Oddy; Joanna Kus, Katarzyna Sikora (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• Saltburn – Neneh Lucia; Charlotte Dirickx (c-12/19) — Borderline —
• Napoleon – Arthur Max (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Maestro – Kevin Thompson; Rena DeAngelo (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• The Color Purple – Paul D. Austerberry; Larry Dias (c-5/11) — Borderline —

Precursors:

• Barbie —– (20) [90.91%] —– (– ADG – SDSA – BAFTA – HCA – Sat – CFC – CIFCC – CCA – FFC – GFCA – HFC – LFCC – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – WAFCA –)
• Killers of the Flower Moon —– (19) [86.36%] —– (– ADG – SDSA – BAFTA – HCA – Sat – CFC – CIFCC – CCA – FFC – GFCA – HFC – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – WAFCA –)
• Poor Things —– (18) [81.82%] —– (– ADG – SDSA – BAFTA – HCA – CFC – CIFCC – CCA – FFC – GFCA – HFC – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – WAFCA –)
• Oppenheimer —– (17) [77.27%] —– (– ADG – SDSA – BAFTA – HCA – Sat – CFC – CIFCC – CCA – GFCA – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – WAFCA –)
• Asteroid City —– (13) [59.09%] —– (– ADG – SDSA – HCA – CFC – CCA – FFC – GFCA – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SFFC – SLFCA – WAFCA –)
• Napoleon —– (5) [22.73%] —– (– ADG – SDSA – Sat – HFC – SDFC –)
• Maestro —– (4) [18.18%] —– (– ADG – SDSA – Sat – HFC –)
• Saltburn —– (4) [18.18%] —– (– ADG – SDSA – HCA – CCA –)
• Wonka —– (3) [13.64%] —– (– ADG – SDSA – SFC –)
• American Fiction —– (2) [9.09%] —– (– SDSA –)
• The Creator —– (2) [9.09%] —– (– ADG – GFCA –)
• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 —– (2) [9.09%] —– (– ADG – SDSA –)
• The Killer —– (2) [9.09%] —– (– ADG – SDSA –)
• Mission: Impossible – Deck Reckoning Part One —– (2) [9.09%] —– (– ADG – SDSA –)
• The Zone of Interest —– (2) [9.09%] —– (– BAFTA – FFC –)
• Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret —– (1) [4.55%] —– (– SDSA –)
• Beau Is Afraid —– (1) [4.55%] —– (– ADG –)
• The Boy and the Heron —– (1) [4.55%] —– (– ADG –)
• Candy Cane Lane —– (1) [4.55%] —– (– SDSA –)
• The Color Purple —– (1) [4.55%] —– (– CIFCC –)
• Elemental —– (1) [4.55%] —– (– ADG –)
• Ferrari —– (1) [4.55%] —– (– Sat –)
• The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes —– (1) [4.55%] —– (– SDSA –)
• Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny —– (1) [4.55%] —– (– SDSA –)
• John Wick: Chapter 4 —– (1) [4.55%] —– (– ADG –)
• Leave the World Behind —– (1) [4.55%] —– (– SDSA –)
• The Little Mermaid —– (1) [4.55%] —– (– SDSA –)
• May December —– (1) [4.55%] —– (– SDSA –)
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse —– (1) [4.55%] —– (– ADG –)
• The Super Mario Bros. Movie —– (1) [4.55%] —– (– ADG –)
• Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem —– (1) [4.55%] —– (– ADG –)

Locks & Near Locks: Barbie and Poor Things are assured spots. I can’t imagine either missing out.

Goods: I might have been tempted to put Oppenheimer here, but it’s one of those films that don’t look like an assured nominee in spite of all factors to the contrary. That’s why I’ve placed it as “Borderline,” but it could easily have been listed as “Good.”

Borderline/Predicted: Alongside the two locks, Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon have the Art Directors Guild, Set Decorators Society, and BAFTA nominations under their belts. Both have been ever-present and both should be nominated, but why is Oppenheimer slotted while I have Killers of the Flower Moon missing? It’s difficult to say but Killers feels more like one of the traditional candidates that miss in spite of being well regarded. Of course, I can’t say why I put Wonka in instead. Wonka has both the ADG and SDSA, but it doesn’t have the BAFTA. That’s true of Asteroid City. The reason they both make it in over Killers is because they feel more like the kinds of big, inventive or period production designs that get the nomination while Killers does not.

Borderline/Not Predicted: The two films sitting on the edge of nomination here are the aforementioned Killers and fellow BAFTA nominee The Zone of Interest. Why I have Killers at the top of the might-breakthrough list and not Zone is just the prestige. That said, the Zone nomination feels more akin to the kind of creative designscapes that the Academy does recognize. I could see either earning nods in lieu of Wonka and Asteroid City. I could also see Oppenheimer missing out. Saltburn is unlikely because it’s too modern. Napoleon could be possible if people liked the movie more. Maestro had some small smattering of precursor support and the ADG/SDSA coupling, so it’s also possible. The Color Purple has a lot of impressive sets and that might bolster its chances. It’s the only reason I have it down as borderline and not doubtful.

In Summary: If there’s a category that is more traditional than this, I can’t think of one. They like things that are very easy to define and rarely go out on limbs. That’s why I’m not sold on any but the top three nominations on my list. Any of the rest could swap and I wouldn’t be shocked.

Best Visual Effects

My Predictions:

• The Creator (c-11/20, n-12/8, o-12/19) — Lock —
•  
• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (c-5/11, n-1/16) — Good —
• Godzilla Minus One (c-12/8, n-12/19) — Borderline —
• Poor Things (c-12/8, n-1/21) — Borderline —
• Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (c-5/11, n-12/21) — Borderline —
•  
• Society of the Snow (c-12/8) — Borderline —
• Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Napoleon (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (c-12/8) — Borderline —
• Rebel Moon: Part One – Child of Fire (c-12/8) — Borderline —

Precursors:

• The Creator —– (17) [73.91%] —– (– VES – BAFTA – HCA – Sat – OAFFC – CIFCC – CCA – DFC – FFC – HFC – HFCS – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SFC – SLFCA – UFCA –)
• Oppenheimer —– (16) [69.57%] —– (– VES – HCA – Sat – OAFFC – CFC – CIFCC – CCA – DFC – FFC – LFCC – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – SFC – SLFCA –)
• Poor Things —– (14) [60.87%] —– (– BAFTA – HCA – OAFFC – CFC – CIFCC – CCA – DFC – FFC – HFC – HFCS – OFCS – SDFC – SFC – UFCA –)
• Godzilla Minus One —– (13) [56.52%] —– (– CFC – CIFCC – DFC – FFC – HFC – HFCS – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – SFC – SLFCA – UFCA –)
• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 —– (13) [56.52%] —– (– VES – BAFTA – HCA – OAFFC – CIFCC – CCA – DFC – HFCS – LVFCC – NCFC – SFC – SLFCA – UFCA –)
• Mission: Impossible – Deck Reckoning Part One —– (11) [47.83%] —– (– BAFTA – HCA – Sat – CFC – CCA – HFC – HFCS – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – SLFCA –)
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse —– (9) [39.13%] —– (– VES – HCA – Sat – OAFFC – CCA – FFC – HFC – LVFCC – UFCA –)
• Napoleon —– (3) [13.04%] —– (– VES – BAFTA – Sat –)
• Barbie —– (1) [4.35%] —– (– CFC –)
• Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget —– (1) [4.35%] —– (– VES –)
• Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves —– (1) [4.35%] —– (– VES –)
• Elemental —– (1) [4.35%] —– (– VES –)
• Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny —– (1) [4.35%] —– (– VES –)
• John Wick: Chapter 4 —– (1) [4.35%] —– (– VES –)
• Killers of the Flower Moon —– (1) [4.35%] —– (– VES –)
• Nimona —– (1) [4.35%] —– (– VES –)
• Nyad —– (1) [4.35%] —– (– VES –)
• Society of the Snow —– (1) [4.35%] —– (– VES –)
• Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem —– (1) [4.35%] —– (– VES –)
• Transformers: Rise of the Beasts —– (1) [4.35%] —– (– Sat –)

Locks & Near Locks: Of the ten shortlist titles, The Creator is the only film I feel certain will be nominated. It and Oppenheimer were the most cited visual effects pieces of the year. The Creator is the only one of those two who made the shortlist. Oppenheimer‘s surprise omission is one of the reasons this category feels so amorphous this year.

Goods: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 only misses out on being considered a lock because it’s a superhero film, a type that has been short-shrifted at the Oscars more times than they deserve. However, BAFTA agreeing with the Visual Effects Society nomination has settled it into the “Good” slot on my list.

Borderline/Predicted: Godzilla Minus One was the most injured film on this list by the BAFTA omission. Many of us had the film slotted as a contender ever since the shortlist came out and some before that. It’s the kind of city-destroying film we’ve seen nominated before and its surprise box office strength has turned it into a contender when it otherwise would have been forgotten. Plenty of precursor citations have affirmed that decision, but BAFTA wasn’t the only group to ignore it. VES did too and that’s probably the more concerning miss. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny didn’t miss VES, though. That gives it at least some support going into final balloting. That said, it wasn’t nominated at BAFTA, which should be worrying. I wasn’t going to predict Poor Things but being the only major Best Picture contender on the list, that has to count for something. It was nominated at BAFTA, which puts it ahead of several others.

Borderline/Not Predicted: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, and Napleon were nominated at BAFTA, which is why they are both right on the borderline of getting a nomination. Society of the Snow has gotten a lot of acclaim, but it doesn’t have the obvious visual effects that would score a Visual Effects nomination. That’s also true of Mission: Impossible. Napoleon, on the other hand, which is the only one of the three to score at VES, does seem like the kind of prestige pic that comes up with a Visual Effects nomination, though that isn’t assured. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is one of the rare animated films contending in Visual Effects. The last to really give it a go, Kubo and the Two Strings, succeeded. The reason for that might be the reason Spider-Man doesn’t get nominated. Kubo was stop-motion animation, which meant it was filmed on an actual set with actual figures, thus a visual effects team creating additional effects is expected. Spider-Man, on the other hand, is entirely a computer-generated universe. When you have computer artists creating everything, does it really make sense that it has visual effects? No. That’s why I have it so far down on my list.

That brings us to Rebel Moon: Part One – Child of Fire. Were the film better reviewed, we might all be thinking of this as a slam dunk nominee, but the film has been torn apart by critics. The trailer’s comparison to Star Wars wasn’t far off and the end result is something that critics have generally shown disdain for. That shouldn’t be disqualifying, but sometimes it is. That said, I wouldn’t actually be shocked to see it nominated, though a lot of Oscar purists will hate having to watch this one just to check it off their lists.

In Summary: As with the other shortlist categories, nothing should be considered out of the realm of possibility. After all, these were films the branch that’s voting these nominations believe are already among the best. So, while I may settle on this as my top five, that doesn’t mean I think it’s sacrosanct.

Best Film Editing

My Predictions:

• Oppenheimer – Jennifer Lame (c-5/11, n-5/11, o-12/19) — Lock —
• Killers of the Flower Moon – Thelma Schoonmaker (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Near Lock —
• Poor Things – Yorgos Mavropsaridis (c-10/17, n-12/19) — Good —
• Anatomy of a Fall – Laurent Sénéchal (c-9/20, n-1/16) — Good —
• Barbie – Nick Houy (c-5/11, n-9/20) — Borderline —
• The Holdovers – Kevin Trent (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• The Zone of Interest – Paul Watts (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• Maestro – Michelle Tesoro (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Saltburn – Victoria Boydell (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One – Eddie Hamilton (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Past Lives – Keith Fraase (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• May December – Affonso Gonçalves (c-8/13) — Borderline —
• American Fiction – Hilda Rasula (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – Michael Andrews (c-12/19) — Doubtful —
• The Color Purple – Jon Poll (c-5/11) — Doubtful —
• Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. – Oona Flaherty, Nick Moore (c-5/11) — Doubtful —

Precursors:

• Oppenheimer —– (22) [81.48%] —– (– BAFTA – HCA – Sat – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – GWNY – HFC – IFJA – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Killers of the Flower Moon —– (20) [74.07%] —– (– BAFTA – HCA – Sat – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – COFC – CCA – GWNY – IFJA – LFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Poor Things —– (16) [59.26%] —– (– BAFTA – Sat – OAFFC – AFCA – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – GWNY – HFC – IFJA – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – SFC – SFFC –)
• Barbie —– (12) [44.44%] —– (– Sat – OAFFC – COFC – CCA – GWNY – HFC – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Maestro —– (9) [33.33%] —– (– Sat – AWFJ – AFCA – CCA – HFC – IFJA – LVFCC – SLFCA – WAFCA –)
• The Holdovers —– (7) [25.93%] —– (– HCA – Sat – OAFFC – AFCA – CIFCC – SLFCA – UFCA –)
• Anatomy of a Fall —– (6) [22.22%] —– (– BAFTA – HCA – AWFJ – OFCS – SDFC – SFFC –)
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse —– (6) [22.22%] —– (– HCA – CIFCC – COFC – IFJA – SFC – UFCA –)
• John Wick: Chapter 4 —– (5) [18.52%] —– (– HCA – CFC – IFJA – NCFC – WAFCA –)
• The Zone of Interest —– (4) [14.81%] —– (– BAFTA – AWFJ – SFFC – SLFCA –)
• The Killer —– (3) [11.11%] —– (– COFC – IFJA – SLFCA –)
• Air —– (2) [7.41%] —– (– CCA – LVFCC –)
• How to Blow Up a Pipeline —– (2) [7.41%] —– (– Spirit – IFJA –)
• Past Lives —– (2) [7.41%] —– (– GWNY – SFC –)
• All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt —– (1) [3.70%] —– (– CFC –)
• BlackBerry —– (1) [3.70%] —– (– IFJA –)
• Fair Play —– (1) [3.70%] —– (– IFJA –)
• Fera —– (1) [3.70%] —– (– HFC –)
• Full Time —– (1) [3.70%] —– (– LFCC –)
• The Iron Claw —– (1) [3.70%] —– (– CIFCC –)
• Mission: Impossible – Deck Reckoning Part One —– (1) [3.70%] —– (– CFC –)
• Rotting in the Sun —– (1) [3.70%] —– (– Spirit –)
• Theater Camp —– (1) [3.70%] —– (– Spirit –)
• Upon Entry —– (1) [3.70%] —– (– Spirit –)
• We Grown Now —– (1) [3.70%] —– (– Spirit –)

Locks & Near Locks: Oppenheimer is certain while Killers of the Flower Moon is only as likely as it is because of Thelma Schoonmaker.

Goods: Poor Things is fairly likely and its BAFTA nomination confirms that. It crosses events between characters well enough to make it seem like it’s doing a lot of heavy lifting. Anatomy of a Fall, however, is earning acclaim with a less obvious style of editing. Both seem assured of nominations at this point.

Borderline/Predicted: There is a historical connection between Best Picture and Best Editing. It is one of the few categories where a failure to earn a nomination can sometimes spell your Best Picture doom. That’s why so many Best Picture contenders are in the borderline list. Why did I settle on Barbie even though it wasn’t nominated at BAFTA? It’s the cross-cutting of narratives that earns it its spot. It’s also a bit of wishful thinking though. It’s wishful thinking that has a foundation in reality.

Borderline/Not Predicted: Other Best Picture contenders in the running are BAFTA-nominated The Zone of Interest, The Holdovers, Maestro, Past Lives, American Fiction, and May December. I also have Saltburn and Mission: Impossible as contenders though I doubt either has as much of a chance as the others.

Other Citations: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse has gotten a decent amount of precursor love, but animated films, based solely on their content, are just not film editing contenders. That doesn’t mean one might not one day surprise, but with so many other live action contenders, I don’t see it happening for this film. The Color Purple and Are You There God? are also here because they are Best Picture contenders but are “doubtful” because so too are their Best Picture chances.

In Summary: There’s something to be said that the fifth slot may well be a popularity contest. Which film has more broad support could be reflected in this choice. We’ll have to see.

Best Actor

My Predictions:

• Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers (c-5/11, n-12/19, o-1/16) — Lock —
• Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Lock —
• Bradley Cooper – Maestro (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Borderline —
• Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction (c-9/20, n-11/20) — Borderline —
• Colman Domingo – Rustin (c-5/18, n-1/16) — Borderline —
• Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Andrew Scott – All of Us Strangers (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• Teo Yoo – Past Lives (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• Barry Keoghan – Saltburn (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Franz Rogowski – Passages (c-12/19) — Borderline —

Precursors:

• Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers —– (33) [91.67%] —– (– SAG – BAFTA – GG – HCA – Sat – AARP – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FCAUK – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LFCC – MMCG – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer —– (32) [88.89%] —– (– SAG – BAFTA – GG – HCA – Sat – AWFJ – AFCA – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FCAUK – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction —– (32) [88.89%] —– (– SAG – GG – Gotham – HCA – Sat – Spirit – AARP – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Bradley Cooper – Maestro —– (24) [66.67%] —– (– SAG – BAFTA – GG – HCA – Sat – AWFJ – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FCAUK – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – PCC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Andrew Scott – All of Us Strangers —– (19) [52.78%] —– (– GG – Gotham – Sat – Spirit – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – COFC – FCAUK – FFC – GWNY – HFCS – LFCC – NCFC – OFCS – SFC – SFFC – UFCA –)
• Colman Domingo – Rustin —– (15) [41.67%] —– (– SAG – BAFTA – GG – HCA – Sat – AARP – COFC – CCA – DFWFCA – GFCA – IFJA – LVFCC – NCFC – SDFC – WAFCA –)
• Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon —– (12) [33.33%] —– (– GG – Sat – AFCA – CFC – COFC – CCA – DFWFCA – HFCS – IFJA – OFCS – PCC – SLFCA –)
• Barry Keoghan – Saltburn —– (8) [22.22%] —– (– BAFTA – GG – HCA – Sat – OAFFC – DFC – FCAUK – PCC –)
• Nicolas Cage – Dream Scenario —– (5) [13.89%] —– (– GG – Sat – AARP – IFJA – LVFCC –)
• Franz Rogowski – Passages —– (4) [11.11%] —– (– Gotham – Sat – Spirit – FFC –)
• Zac Efron – The Iron Claw —– (3) [8.33%] —– (– COFC – MMCG – SDFC –)
• Joaquine Phoenix – Beau Is Afraid —– (3) [8.33%] —– (– GG – Sat – IFJA –)
• Teo Yoo – Past Lives —– (3) [8.33%] —– (– Spirit – CFC – CIFCC –)
• Kôji Yakusho – Perfect Days —– (2) [5.56%] —– (– OAFFC – SFC –)
• Timothée Chalamet – Wonka —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– GG –)
• Matt Damon – Air —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– GG –)
• Adam Driver – Ferrari —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– HFC –)
• Anthony Hopkins – Freud’s Last Session —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– AARP –)
• Glenn Howerton – BlackBerry —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– IFJA –)

Locks & Near Locks: Paul Giamatti and Cillian Murphy have been going back and forth all season as winners and both can claim being a type of frontrunner. As such, I would lock both in.

Goods: There is no middle ground this year. Either you’re a lock or you’re struggling for a nomination.

Borderline/Predicted: That brings us to the lucky three whose nominations may come down to politics. What is most interesting about the Best Actor race is that Bradley Cooper and Jeffrey Wright, the third- and fourth-most honored lead actors of the year, would be fighting to keep their slots when in another year they would be locks. That should tell you all you need about this race. Cooper’s struggle is in direct relation to his film’s struggles, which I’ve discussed previously. The BAFTA nomination has to be considered a bolstering sign for him. Yet, it’s Colman Domingo and not Jeffrey Wright that’s benefiting from his BAFTA nomination. That’s because Wright was shocking left off. For many, this is the performance that should finally earn Wright the Oscar attention he’s long been denied, yet even that possibility is called into doubt. So why do I have Domingo in the fifth slot and not Wright? Because Domingo’s film isn’t particularly well regarded. It will likely be an Original Song nominee but won’t be cited anywhere else. Meanwhile American Fiction is definitely in contention elsewhere. That’s the sole reason.

Borderline/Not Predicted: If Cooper and Wright are struggling in a year they should have been shoo-ins, how must you feel if you’re Leonardo DiCaprio. This was supposed to be his latest Oscar-nominated performance, but he’s struggling to break through against a stacked slate of actors. He might have been nominated at the Globes but BAFTA voters shunned him. Hell, they even shunned home town favorite Andrew Scott who should have been a certain nominee until he wasn’t. Instead, they went for Barry Keoghan whose profile has zoomed up thanks to that. Yet, he’s still not likely to overcome DiCaprio or Scott if a slot should open up. But who gets burned? It’s almost impossible to say for sure at this point.

Other Citations: Although I saved this section for the “doubtful” candidates, I’m taking two borderlines and discussing them here because I don’t see either as a likely Oscar nominee. Teo Yoo has been riding the wave of support for his film, Past Lives, to chatter about a nomination. However, he’s consistently come up short. The same is true of Franz Rogowski. He was put on the map by the surprise New York Film Critics Circle award but little has manifested to suggest he’s actually a contender otherwise.

In Summary: In the end, some actors will wish their films had opened next year instead and they might have had a shot but the competition is too fierce this year for everyone to be cited.

Best Actress

My Predictions:

• Emma Stone – Poor Things (c-5/18, n-9/20, o-1/16) — Lock —
• Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall (c-9/20, n-12/19) — Good —
• Carey Mulligan – Maestro (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Good —
• Margot Robbie – Barbie (c-5/11, n-7/22) — Borderline —
• Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon (c-9/20, n-9/20) — Borderline —
• Greta Lee – Past Lives (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Annette Bening – Nyad (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Origin (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• Natalie Portman – May December (c-8/13) — Borderline —
• Teyana Taylor – A Thousand and One (c-5/11) — Doubtful —

Precursors:

• Emma Stone – Poor Things —– (33) [91.67%] —– (– SAG – BAFTA – GG – HCA – Sat – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FCAUK – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon —– (31) [86.11%] —– (– SAG – GG – HCA – Sat – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FCAUK – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LFCC – MMCG – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Greta Lee – Past Lives —– (29) [80.56%] —– (– GG – HCA – Sat – Spirit – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FCAUK – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Margot Robbie – Barbie —– (24) [66.67%] —– (– SAG – BAFTA – GG – HCA – Sat – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – COFC – CCA – DFC – FCAUK – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – WAFCA –)
• Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall —– (22) [61.11%] —– (– BAFTA – GG – Sat – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIFCC – CCA – DFWFCA – FCAUK – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – LFCC – MMCG – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC –)
• Carey Mulligan – Maestro —– (17) [47.22%] —– (– SAG – BAFTA – GG – HCA – Sat – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – GFCA – HFC – IFJA – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – UFCA –)
• Natalie Portman – May December —– (11) [30.56%] —– (– GG – Sat – Spirit – CFC – FFC – GWNY – IFJA – LVFCC – PCC – SLFCA – UFCA –)
• Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple —– (5) [13.89%] —– (– BAFTA – GG – HCA – Sat – HFCS –)
• Annette Bening – Nyad —– (4) [11.11%] —– (– SAG – GG – AARP – LVFCC –)
• Teyana Taylor – A Thousand and One —– (4) [11.11%] —– (– Gotham – Spirit – FFC – IFJA –)
• Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Origin —– (3) [8.33%] —– (– Gotham – AARP – WAFCA –)
• Cailee Spaeny – Priscilla —– (3) [8.33%] —– (– GG – Gotham – Sat –)
• Alma Pöysti – Fallen Leaves —– (2) [5.56%] —– (– GG – Sat –)
• Juliette Binoche – The Taste of Things —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– AARP –)
• Jessica Chastain – Memory —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– Spirit –)
• Penélope Cruz – Ferrari —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– Sat –)
• Phoebe Dynevor – Fair Play —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– IFJA –)
• Abby Ryder Fortson – Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– SDFC –)
• Lily Gladstone – The Unknown Country —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– Gotham –)
• Jennifer Lawrence – No Hard Feelings —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– GG –)
• Trace Lysette – Monica —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– Spirit –)
• Helen Mirren – Golda —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– AARP –)
• Vivian Oparah – Rye Lane —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– BAFTA –)
• Judy Reyes – Birth/Rebirth —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– Spirit –)
• Babetida Sadojo – Our Father, the Devil —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– Gotham –)
• Michelle Williams – Showing Up —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– Gotham –)
• Julia Roberts – Leave the World Behind —– (0) [0.00%] —– (—)

Locks & Near Locks: Emma Stone is guaranteed another nomination. A second win, on the other hand, might not be in the cards.

Goods: Sandra Hüller and Carey Mulligan seem assured of nominations. Their BAFTA recognitions should see to that.

Borderline/Predicted: There was a time when I would have said Lily Gladstone was a lock. Then BAFTA bypassed her. Now she’s borderline. Do I think she’ll still get the nomination? Yes, but only barely. That’s why I put her so far down the list. Margot Robbie also got in at BAFTA and that was no guarantee, so I suspect Robbie is in fourth with Gladstone hoping she doesn’t get bumped down to support or off either list entirely.

Borderline/Not Predicted: Fantasia Barrino may have gotten in at BAFTA, but it’s very certain hers was a diversity save by the committee as it wasn’t likely she was a top-two finisher. The same could be said for Vivian Oparah who used to be in my predictions back when I first made them but who was bumped quickly when it was clear her film was going nowhere. The BAFTA citation doesn’t put her back in the race by any stretch of the imagination. Instead, we’re looking at a race between Greta Lee (who really could have used a BAFTA nomination), Annette Bening (who also could have), and Natalie Portman. Those are the three who have the best claim to being a contender to replace Gladstone should the previously-unthinkable occur.

Then there’s Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor who is said to be building buzz for her work in Origin. The film has been poorly handled by the studio, which seems to be a trend for Ava DuVernay’s projects. She could nab a nomination in a surprise bid but I’m still doubtful of her chances since so few have seen her film so far. Ultimately, I think Lee and Bening probably have the best chances but I wouldn’t count any of these ladies out at this point.

Other Citations: Teyana Taylor was thought to be a better contender than Vivian Oparah but in the end that BAFTA choice means Taylor’s well-regarded work looks to be on its way to being forgotten by the Academy.

In Summary: Stranger things have happened in Best Actress and it would only be fitting if Ellis-Taylor pulled an Andrea Riseborough. I wouldn’t expect it but it would be an interesting turn of events. Let’s just hope it’s not at the expense of someone who deserved a nomination much like Riseborough’s sudden appearance did.

Best Directing

My Predictions:

• Oppenheimer – Christopher Nolan (c-5/11, n-5/11, o-12/19) — Lock —
• The Holdovers – Alexander Payne (c-5/11, n-1/16) — Good —
• Killers of the Flower Moon – Martin Scorsese (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Borderline —
• Poor Things – Yorgos Lanthimos (c-10/17, n-12/19) — Borderline —
• Barbie – Greta Gerwig (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Borderline —
• The Zone of Interest – Jonathan Glazer (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• Maestro – Bradley Cooper (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Anatomy of a Fall – Justine Triet (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• All of Us Strangers – Andrew Haigh (c-1/20) — Borderline —
• Past Lives – Celine Song (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• American Fiction – Cord Jefferson (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• May December – Todd Haynes (c-8/13) — Borderline —
• Saltburn – Emerald Fennell (c-5/11) — Doubtful —

Precursors:

• Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer —– (33) [94.29%] —– (– DGA – BAFTA – GG – HCA – Sat – AARP – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FCAUK – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Greta Gerwig – Barbie —– (29) [82.86%] —– (– DGA – GG – HCA – Sat – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFC – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon —– (28) [80.00%] —– (– DGA – GG – HCA – Sat – AARP – AWFJ – AFCA – CFC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FCAUK – GFCA – GWNY – HFCS – IFJA – LFCC – MMCG – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Celine Song – Past Lives —– (24) [68.57%] —– (– DGA – GG – HCA – Spirit – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CIFCC – COFC – DFWFCA – FCAUK – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – IFJA – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things —– (23) [65.71%] —– (– DGA – GG – HCA – Sat – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SFC – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Alexander Payne – The Holdovers —– (10) [28.57%] —– (– DGA – BAFTA – HCA – Sat – AARP – CIFCC – CCA – DFWFCA – HFCS – IFJA –)
• Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest —– (8) [22.86%] —– (– BAFTA – Sat – AWFJ – FCAUK – FFC – LFCC – PCC – SFFC –)
• Bradley Cooper – Maestro —– (7) [20.00%] —– (– BAFTA – GG – HCA – CIFCC – CCA – HFC – LVFCC –)
• Todd Haynes – May December —– (6) [17.14%] —– (– Spirit – CFC – FFC – GWNY – IFJA – SLFCA –)
• Cord Jefferson – American Fiction —– (6) [17.14%] —– (– DGA – HCA – GFCA – HFC – MMCG – SDFC –)
• Emerald Fennell – Saltburn —– (4) [11.43%] —– (– HCA – AWFJ – DFC – FCAUK –)
• Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall —– (3) [8.57%] —– (– BAFTA – AWFJ – OAFFC –)
• Ben Affleck – Air —– (2) [5.71%] —– (– HCA – AARP –)
• Andrew Haigh – All of Us Strangers —– (2) [5.71%] —– (– BAFTA – Spirit –)
• Wes Anderson – Asteroid City —– (1) [2.86%] —– (– FFC –)
• Joaquim Dos Santos, Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson – Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse —– (1) [2.86%] —– (– IFJA –)
• Ava DuVernay – Origin —– (1) [2.86%] —– (– AWFJ –)
• David Fincher – The Killer —– (1) [2.86%] —– (– IFJA –)
• Kelly Fremon Craig – Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret —– (1) [2.86%] —– (– SDFC –)
• Michael Mann – Ferrari —– (1) [2.86%] —– (– AARP –)
• Manuella Martelli – Chile ’76 —– (1) [2.86%] —– (– DGA –)
• Noora Niasari – Shayda —– (1) [2.86%] —– (– DGA –)
• William Oldroyd – Eileen —– (1) [2.86%] —– (– Spirit –)
• A.V. Rockwell – A Thousand and One —– (1) [2.86%] —– (– DGA –)
• Ira Sachs – Passages —– (1) [2.86%] —– (– Spirit –)
• Chad Stahelski – John Wick: Chapter 4 —– (1) [2.86%] —– (– IFJA –)

Locks & Near Locks: You have Christopher Nolan and then you have everyone else. While Nolan has struggled to get the Academy’s directing branch to recognize him for years, there’s no doubt that he’ll be recognized this year.

Goods: That’s also true of Alexander Payne but for other reason. The directors adore him. They’ve nominated him more often than most and often for films that didn’t seem like directors vehicles. He went from being a borderline contender to being a good bet for a nomination. That said, The Holdovers isn’t a film that people stand up and acclaim the director for even though they should more often. That alone might make him a weaker contender and result in Payne getting dropped out in a shock bid. Only DGA/BAFTA affirms my prediction.

Borderline/Predicted: The biggest surprise at the BAFTA nominations was that three of the five DGA nominees were not nominated and they were Yorgos Lanthimos, Martin Scorsese, and Greta Gerwig. It’s an unthinkable situation, but it happened. That alone is the reason I have all three slotted as borderline contenders. Before this, I would have thought the DGA five were on track for Oscar nominations. Now, that doesn’t seem likely. While I think it would be more shocking if Scorsese or Lanthimos were left off, sadly it may be Gerwig that takes the hit.

A lot of people take Gerwig’s achievement with Barbie for granted, but it was very much a directors’ film. She had a hand in crafting the entire picture and it was her creative vision that made it across the finish line. She’s no different than Nolan in that regard but because the film is more “girly” and less “serious,” a lot of the heavily male membership of the directors branch might do the unthinkable and ignore her. That said, no one thought George Miller would make it through for Mad Max: Fury Road for many of the same reasons and he did, so there’s still hope.

Borderline/Not Predicted: Of the candidates to replace her are the three white guys and one white woman that got BAFTA nominations. The most likely of these is Bradley Cooper who earns a lot of respect for the years of effort he put into bringing the film to the screen. Some have called it over-directed, which might not matter to directors who like to have more control over their projects. Jonathan Glazer could be riding the last-minute swell of support for The Zone of Interest to a nomination. I could see him being in the fifth slot but a five-wide all-white, all-male slate would be controversial. That’s why I think if anyone replaces Gerwig, it might be Justine Triet. She would save the directors the embarrassment of being out-of-touch white dudes and only earn them accusations of being anti-populist, which they wouldn’t mind.

The fourth is Andrew Haigh who has never really been thought of as a major contender but whose All of Us Strangers nomination nevertheless puts him on the map. I still doubt he’ll get the nomination, but he has to be held out as a possibility. The same is true of Celine Song who has a better claim to a nomination than any of the BAFTA four and almost as much of a claim to it as Gerwig. Gerwig was the second-most nominated director this year while Song is fourth-most. How this hasn’t been discussed as a year with potentially three women nominated for directing rather than a woman-less slate is unfathomable but it’s now a real possibility. Todd Haynes would also love to be a nominee but that’s not likely at all. The last person who could make a push for a nomination is Cord Jefferson whose debut feature American Fiction is a Best Picture nomination contender. That should earn him more attention but it hasn’t. Could Ava DuVernay come out of nowhere for Origin? That’s far less likely than Jefferson at this point.

Other Citations: Saltburn‘s Emerald Fennell would also love to be a part of the big-day-for-women event that won’t happen but even if it did she’s just not likely to have been a part of it. Her film was far too divisive.

In Summary: There are going to be a lot of disappointed people on Tuesday but if there were a better year as a defense for an expansion of the Best Directing slate to 10, this would certainly be it.

Best Documentary Feature

My Predictions:

• 20 Days in Mariupol (c-12/7, n-12/19, o-12/19)
• American Symphony (c-12/7, n-12/19)
• Beyond Utopia (c-12/7, n-12/19)
• Stamped from the Beginning (c-12/7, n-1/16)
• Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (c-12/7, n-12/21)
• 32 Sounds (c-12/7)
• Apolonia, Apolonia (c-12/7)
• Bobi Wine: The People’s President (c-12/7)
• Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy (c-12/7)
• The Eternal Memory (c-12/7)
• Four Daughters (c-12/7)
• Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (c-12/7)
• In the Rearview (c-12/7)
• A Still Small Voice (c-12/7)
• To Kill a Tiger (c-12/7)

Precursors:

• Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie —– (27) [75.00%] —– (– BAFTA – HCA – AARP – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – HFCS – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NBR – NCFC – OFCS – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – WAFCA –)
• 20 Days in Mariupol —– (24) [66.67%] —– (– PGA – BAFTA – Gotham – HCA – Sat – AWFJ – AFCA – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – HFCS – IFJA – LFCC – NBR – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• American Symphony —– (22) [61.11%] —– (– PGA – BAFTA – HCA – Sat – AWFJ – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Beyond Utopia —– (21) [58.33%] —– (– PGA – BAFTA – HCA – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CCA – DFC – GFCA – HFCS – IFJA – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – OFCS – PCC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA –)
• Kokomo City —– (12) [33.33%] —– (– Spirit – OAFFC – CFC – COFC – CCA – DFC – FFC – GWNY – IFJA – LVFCC – OFCS – SDFC –)
• Four Daughters —– (8) [22.22%] —– (– Gotham – Spirit – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – GFCA – GWNY – HFC –)
• Little Richard: I Am Everything —– (8) [22.22%] —– (– HCA – Sat – AFCA – FFC – HFC – LVFCC – SDFC – WAFCA –)
• Menus-Plaisirs – Les Troisgros —– (6) [16.67%] —– (– CFC – FFC – GWNY – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA –)
• The Eternal Memory —– (5) [13.89%] —– (– CCA – FFC – HFCS – LFCC – NBR –)
• The Mission —– (5) [13.89%] —– (– CCA – GFCA – NCFC – PCC – UFCA –)
• The Pigeon Tunnel —– (4) [11.11%] —– (– AARP – DFWFCA – GFCA – NBR –)
• The Deepest Breath —– (3) [8.33%] —– (– OAFFC – CCA – DFWFCA –)
• A Still Small Voice —– (3) [8.33%] —– (– NBR – PCC – UFCA –)
• 32 Sounds —– (2) [5.56%] —– (– COFC – NBR –)
• The Disappearance of Shere Hite —– (2) [5.56%] —– (– PGA – CIFCC –)
• Judy Blume Foreever —– (2) [5.56%] —– (– AARP – CCA –)
• Lakota Nation vs. United States —– (2) [5.56%] —– (– Sat – IFJA –)
• The Mother of All Lies —– (2) [5.56%] —– (– PGA – Spirit –)
• Silver Dollar Road —– (2) [5.56%] —– (– CIFCC – NCFC –)
• Smoke Sauna Sisterhood —– (2) [5.56%] —– (– PGA – AWFJ –)
• Stamped from the Beginning —– (2) [5.56%] —– (– Sat – CCA –)
• Taylor Swift: The Era Tour —– (2) [5.56%] —– (– HCA – GWNY –)
• Against the Tide —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– Gotham –)
• Albert Brooks: Defending Your Life —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– HFC –)
• Anselm —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– COFC –)
• Apolonia, Apolonia —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– Gotham –)
• Bad Press —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– Sat –)
• Bye Bye Tiberias —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– Spirit –)
• Close to Vermeer —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– Sat –)
• Dear Mama —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– Grammy –)
• Even Hell Has Its Heroes —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– SFC –)
• Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– Spirit –)
• Greener Pastures —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– IFJA –)
• How I’m Feeling Now —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– Grammy –)
• I Am Everything —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– Grammy –)
• Invisible Beauty —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– AARP –)
• It Ain’t Over —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– SLFCA –)
• Live from Paris, The Big Steppers Tour —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– Grammy –)
• The Lost Weekend: A Love Story —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– AARP –)
• Love to Love You, Donna Summer —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– Sat –)
• May the Lord Watch: The Little Brother Story —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– NCFC –)
• Our Body —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– Gotham –)
• Scala!!! —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– LFCC –)
• Sly —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– MMCG –)
• Squaring the Circle (The Story of Hipgnosis) —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– PGA –)
• They Shot the Piano Player —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– WAFCA –)
• Turn Every Page – The Adventures of Robert Caro and Robert Gottlieb —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– IFJA –)
• WHAM! —– (1) [2.78%] —– (– BAFTA –)

General Commentary: Like the short film categories, I don’t like to put “lock/borderline” statements on documentary features. While there are plenty of precursors to tell us what should be popular, the end result is often that they don’t matter. Most critics work off the calendar year for their nominees/winners but the Academy uses different criteria. Theirs is perhaps a bit more generous but that disconnect is the reason for not setting favorites in this category. Further, the frequency with which critically acclaimed films are left off in favor of productions that few have heard of is a bit too common. That said, the five films listed as my predictions are among the most acclaimed productions of the year. Still seems like the kind of documentary the Academy shockingly overlooks but I think it’s still a safer bet than others. That said, any of the shortlisters could pull off a nomination and none of us can be surprised about that.

Best International Feature

My Predictions:

• The Zone of Interest – United Kingdom (c-12/7, n-12/19, o-12/19)
• Perfect Days – Japan (c-12/7, n-12/19)
• The Taste of Things – France (c-12/7, n-12/19)
• The Teachers’ Lounge – Germany (c-12/7, n-12/19)
• Totem – Mexico (c-12/7, n-12/19)
• 20 Days in Mariupol – Ukraine (c-12/7)
• Amerikatsi – Armenia (c-12/7)
• Fallen Leaves – Finland (c-12/7)
• Four Daughters – Tunisia (c-12/7)
• Godland – Iceland (c-12/7)
• Io Capitano – Italy (c-12/7)
• The Monk and the Gun – Bhutan (c-12/7)
• The Mother of All Lies – Morocco (c-12/7)
• The Promised Land – Denmark (c-12/7)
• Society of the Snow – Spain (c-12/7)

Precursors:

• The Zone of Interest —– (34) [100.00%] —– (– BAFTA – GG – Gotham – HCA – Sat – Spirit – AARP – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LFCC – LVFCC – NBR – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Anatomy of a Fall —– (33) [97.06%] —– (– BAFTA – GG – Gotham – HCA – Sat – Spirit – AWFJ – OAFFC – AFCA – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LFCC – LVFCC – NBR – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Godzilla Minus One —– (19) [55.88%] —– (– AFCA – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFC – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LVFCC – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFC – UFCA –)
• Perfect Days —– (14) [41.18%] —– (– HCA – AARP – OAFFC – COFC – CCA – GFCA – GWNY – HFCS – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SFFC – SLFCA – WAFCA –)
• Fallen Leaves —– (13) [38.24%] —– (– GG – HCA – Sat – AWFJ – OAFFC – DFWFCA – LFCC – NBR – OFCS – PCC – SDFC – SFFC – SLFCA –)
• The Taste of Things —– (12) [35.29%] —– (– HCA – AARP – OAFFC – AFCA – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – GFCA – HFC – SFFC – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• The Boy and the Heron —– (10) [29.41%] —– (– AFCA – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – IFJA – LFCC – SFC –)
• Society of the Snow —– (10) [29.41%] —– (– BAFTA – GG – HCA – Sat – CCA – DFWFCA – HFCS – LVFCC – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Past Lives —– (7) [20.59%] —– (– BAFTA – GG – AWFJ – DFC – IFJA – LFCC – NCFC –)
• The Teachers’ Lounge —– (6) [17.65%] —– (– HCA – Sat – AWFJ – CFC – NBR – SLFCA –)
• Monster —– (3) [8.82%] —– (– IFJA – SDFC – SFC –)
• Tótem —– (3) [8.82%] —– (– Gotham – Spirit – NBR –)
• When Evil Lurks —– (3) [8.82%] —– (– CIFCC – IFJA – LVFCC –)
• Io Capitano —– (2) [5.88%] —– (– GG – Sat –)
• Radical —– (2) [5.88%] —– (– HCA – AARP –)
• 20 Days in Mariupol —– (1) [2.94%] —– (– BAFTA –)
• Afire —– (1) [2.94%] —– (– COFC –)
• All of Us Strangers —– (1) [2.94%] —– (– Gotham –)
• Amerikatsi —– (1) [2.94%] —– (– AARP –)
• Blaga’s Lessons —– (1) [2.94%] —– (– Sat –)
• La Chimera —– (1) [2.94%] —– (– NBR –)
• Concrete Utopia —– (1) [2.94%] —– (– HCA –)
• Godland —– (1) [2.94%] —– (– Spirit –)
• Jawan —– (1) [2.94%] —– (– HCA –)
• Mami Wata —– (1) [2.94%] —– (– Spirit –)
• Pathaan —– (1) [2.94%] —– (– IFJA –)
• Poor Things —– (1) [2.94%] —– (– Gotham –)
• The Promised Land —– (1) [2.94%] —– (– IFJA –)
• Suzume —– (1) [2.94%] —– (– IFJA –)
• The Three Musketeers – Part 1: D’Artagnan —– (1) [2.94%] —– (– HFC –)

General Commentary: While I was tempted to put chances onto these nominees, I ultimately decided not to. That’s because the Academy’s voters make some off-the-wall selections in this category and sensing which will happen is a fool’s errand. My predictions are among the most acclaimed and, other than The Zone of Interest, I can imagine any of the others being left off for various reasons. Those same reasons why any of those on the shortlist could also be nominated in spite of appearing to be also-rans.

Best Original Song

My Predictions:

• What Was I Made For? – Barbie (c-12/19, n-12/19, o-12/19) — Good —
• I’m Just Ken – Barbie (c-12/19, n-12/19) — Good —
• Road to Freedom – Rustin (c-12/19, n-12/19) — Good —
• It Never Went Away – American Symphony (c-12/21, n-1/18) — Borderline —
• The Fire Inside – Flamin’ Hot (c-12/19, n-1/16) — Borderline —
• Quiet Eyes – Past Lives (c-12/21) — Borderline —
• Am I Dreaming – Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (c-12/21) — Borderline —
• Keep It Movin’ – The Color Purple (c-12/19) — Borderline —
• Can’t Catch Me Now – The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes (c-12/21) — Borderline —
• Meet in the Middle – Flora and Son (c-12/21) — Borderline —
• High Life – Flora and Son (c-12/19) — Borderline —
• Superpower (I) – The Color Purple (c-12/21) — Doubtful —
• Dance the Night – Barbie (c-12/19) — Doubtful —
• Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People) – Killers of the Flower Moon (c-12/21) — Doubtful —
• Dear Alien (Who Art in Heaven) – Asteroid City (c-12/21) — Doubtful —

Precursors:

• I’m Just Ken – Barbie —– (14) [82.35%] —– (– HMM – SCL – GG – Grammy – HCA – Sat – CIFCC – CCA – DFC – GFCA – HFC – HFCS – LVFCC – NCFC –)
• What Was I Made For? – Barbie —– (14) [82.35%] —– (– HMM – SCL – GG – Grammy – HCA – Sat – CIFCC – CCA – DFC – GFCA – HFC – HFCS – LVFCC – NCFC –)
• Peaches – The Super Mario Bros. Movie —– (10) [58.82%] —– (– SCL – GG – HCA – Sat – CIFCC – CCA – GFCA – HFC – LVFCC – NCFC –)
• Road to Freedom – Rustin —– (8) [47.06%] —– (– HMM – SCL – GG – Sat – CCA – DFC – HFC – LVFCC –)
• Dance the Night – Barbie —– (7) [41.18%] —– (– GG – Grammy – HCA – CCA – DFC – HFC – HFCS –)
• Keep It Movin’ – The Color Purple —– (4) [23.53%] —– (– HMM – CIFCC – DFC – HFCS –)
• Am I Dreaming – Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse —– (3) [17.65%] —– (– DFC – GFCA – NCFC –)
• The Fire Inside – Flamin’ Hot —– (3) [17.65%] —– (– HMM – SCL – Sat –)
• Can’t Catch Me Now – The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes —– (2) [11.76%] —– (– SCL – NCFC –)
• It Never Went Away – American Symphony —– (2) [11.76%] —– (– SCL – Sat –)
• This Wish – Wish —– (2) [11.76%] —– (– HCA – CCA –)
• Addicted to Romance – She Came to Me —– (1) [5.88%] —– (– GG –)
• All About Me – The L Word: Generation Q —– (1) [5.88%] —– (– SCL –)
• Barbie World – Barbie —– (1) [5.88%] —– (– Grammy –)
• Better Place – Trolls Band Together —– (1) [5.88%] —– (– LVFCC –)
• Better Times – Jacob the Baker —– (1) [5.88%] —– (– SCL –)
• Camp Isn’t Home – Theater Camp —– (1) [5.88%] —– (– HCA –)
• High Life – Flora and Son —– (1) [5.88%] —– (– HMM –)
• I Am – Origin —– (1) [5.88%] —– (– HMM –)
• Meet in the Middle – Flora and Son —– (1) [5.88%] —– (– HFCS –)
• Quiet Eyes – Past Lives —– (1) [5.88%] —– (– GFCA –)
• Slip Away – Carmen —– (1) [5.88%] —– (– SCL –)
• This – The Beanie Bubble —– (1) [5.88%] —– (– HMM –)
• A World of Our Own – Wonka —– (1) [5.88%] —– (– CIFCC –)

Locks & Near Locks: I put Original Song in the penultimate position because it’s the category with the most possibility for upsets. That’s also why there are zero locks and near locks on the list.

Goods: That said, there are three good bets. “What Was I Made For?” and “I’m Just Ken” are the best recognized titles from Barbie and with the music branch limitation to two nominees from a single film, these are the two I’ve settled on while “Dance the Night” sits in the “doubtful” category even though I don’t think it’s really that off-the-wall as a potential nominee. The third “Good” choice is “Road to Freedom,” which has done too well this season to miss a nomination.

Borderline/Predicted: “The Fire Inside” just doesn’t seem like an Oscar contender until you discover that perennial nominee Diane Warren wrote it. Then it becomes almost guaranteed. She’s been nominated for some of the most questionable songs this century, so getting another nod for this one doesn’t seem out of the question. “It Never Went Away” is one of those songs that songwriters love to recognize. It’s both from a documentary and is about the songwriting process (to an extent). That’s catnip for this branch and is why I’ve given it the fourth slot on the list just ahead of the Warren monstrosity.

Borderline/Not Predicted: Almost any of the other titles, including those listed as “doubtful,” could succeed on getting a nomination but the “borderline” ones are the ones that have had the most chatter surrounding them. I can’t really say that any of them are deserving/not deserving of a nomination just that I can see equally valid reasons for them getting nominated and for not getting nominated.

Other Citations: I can’t really say much about the doubtful selections because I don’t really think they’re doubtful, just slightly less likely than the “borderline” efforts. As such, I won’t fathom a guess as to whether they will be forgotten just that they are more likely to be than not.

In Summary: It’s a very volatile category with so many potential nominations and upsets. I can’t wrap my head around what really makes one or the other invalid, so I’ll just hope that I’m close to right in the end.

Best Picture

My Predictions:

• Oppenheimer – Universal (c-5/11, n-5/11, o-12/19) — Lock —
• The Holdovers – Focus (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Near Lock —
• Killers of the Flower Moon – Paramount (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Near Lock —
• Poor Things – Searchlight (c-10/17, n-10/17) — Near Lock —
• Anatomy of a Fall – Neon (c-9/20, n-9/20) — Good —
• The Zone of Interest – A24 (c-9/20, n-12/19) — Good —
• Barbie – Warner Bros. (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Good —
• Past Lives – A24 (c-9/20, n-9/20) — Borderline —
• American Fiction – MGM (c-9/20, n-9/20) — Borderline —
• Maestro – Netflix (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Borderline —
• The Color Purple – Warner Bros. (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• All of Us Strangers – Searchlight (c-1/16) — Borderline —
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – Sony (c-1/16) — Borderline —
• Saltburn – Amazon Prime (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• May December – Netflix (c-8/13) — Borderline —
• Godzilla Minus One – Toho International (c-1/16) — Doubtful —
• The Iron Claw – A24 (c-1/16) — Doubtful —

Precursors:

• Oppenheimer —– (43) [91.49%] —– (– CSA – ICG – PGA – SAG – AFI – BAFTA – GG – HCA – Sat – AARP – AWFJ – BFCC – OAFFC – AFCA – AFCC – BOFCA – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FCAUK – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HFCS – IFJA – LFCC – LVFCC – NBR – NCFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – PFC – SDFC – SEFCA – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Past Lives —– (39) [82.98%] —– (– CSA – PGA – AFI – GG – Gotham – HCA – Sat – Spirit – AWFJ – BFCC – OAFFC – AFCA – AFCC – BOFCA – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FCAUK – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HFCS – IFJA – LFCC – MMCG – NBR – NCFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – PFC – SEFCA – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Barbie —– (38) [80.85%] —– (– CSA – ICG – PGA – SAG – AFI – GG – HCA – Sat – AARP – AWFJ – BFCC – OAFFC – AFCA – AFCC – BOFCA – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FCAUK – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LFCC – LVFCC – MMCG – NBR – NCFC – OFCS – PFC – SEFCA – SFC – SLFCA – WAFCA –)
• Killers of the Flower Moon —– (38) [80.85%] —– (– CSA – PGA – SAG – AFI – BAFTA – GG – HCA – Sat – AARP – AWFJ – AFCA – AFCC – BOFCA – CFC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – FCAUK – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – HFCS – IFJA – LFCC – LVFCC – NBR – NCFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – PFC – SDFC – SEFCA – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA – UFCA –)
• The Holdovers —– (33) [70.21%] —– (– CSA – PGA – AFI – BAFTA – GG – HCA – Sat – AWFJ – AFCA – AFCC – BOFCA – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFWFCA – GFCA – GWNY – HFCS – IFJA – LFCC – MMCG – NBR – NCFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – PFC – SDFC – SEFCA – SFC – SLFCA – UFCA – WAFCA –)
• Poor Things —– (33) [70.21%] —– (– PGA – AFI – BAFTA – GG – Sat – BFCC – OAFFC – AFCA – AFCC – BOFCA – CFC – CIFCC – COFC – CCA – DFC – DFWFCA – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – LFCC – MMCG – NBR – NCFC – NYFCO – OFCS – PCC – PFC – SEFCA – SFC – SFFC – UFCA –)
• American Fiction —– (29) [61.70%] —– (– CSA – PGA – SAG – AFI – GG – HCA – Sat – Spirit – AWFJ – BFCC – AFCA – AFCC – BOFCA – COFC – CCA – DFWFCA – GFCA – HFC – HFCS – IFJA – MMCG – NCFC – NYFCO – PFC – SDFC – SEFCA – SFC – SLFCA – WAFCA –)
• May December —– (19) [40.43%] —– (– CSA – AFI – GG – Sat – Spirit – AFCC – BOFCA – CFC – COFC – DFWFCA – FFC – GFCA – GWNY – IFJA – LFCC – NYFCO – OFCS – SFC – SLFCA –)
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse —– (18) [38.30%] —– (– ICG – AFI – HCA – BFCC – AFCA – AFCC – CIFCC – COFC – FCAUK – GFCA – GWNY – HFC – IFJA – NCFC – NYFCO – PFC – SEFCA – SFC –)
• Anatomy of a Fall —– (16) [34.04%] —– (– PGA – BAFTA – GG – AWFJ – BFCC – OAFFC – AFCC – BOFCA – CIFCC – DFWFCA – LFCC – MMCG – NYFCO – OFCS – SEFCA – SLFCA –)
• Maestro —– (16) [34.04%] —– (– CSA – ICG – PGA – AFI – GG – HCA – Sat – AARP – BFCC – CCA – DFWFCA – LVFCC – NBR – NYFCO – PFC – SLFCA –)
• The Zone of Interest —– (14) [29.79%] —– (– PGA – GG – AWFJ – BOFCA – CIFCC – COFC – LFCC – NCFC – OFCS – PCC – SEFCA – SFC – SFFC – SLFCA –)
• The Color Purple —– (7) [14.89%] —– (– CSA – SAG – HCA – AARP – BFCC – CCA – HFCS –)
• Godzilla Minus One —– (6) [12.77%] —– (– AFCA – COFC – GFCA – HFCS – IFJA – NCFC –)
• All of Us Strangers —– (5) [10.64%] —– (– Spirit – CIFCC – GWNY – LFCC – NBR –)
• The Iron Claw —– (5) [10.64%] —– (– CSA – AFCA – CIFCC – COFC – NBR –)
• Air —– (4) [8.51%] —– (– CSA – ICG – GG – HCA –)
• Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret —– (4) [8.51%] —– (– CSA – HFCS – IFJA – SDFC –)
• Asteroid City —– (4) [8.51%] —– (– CSA – GWNY – IFJA – OFCS –)
• Ferrari —– (3) [6.38%] —– (– Sat – HFC – NBR –)
• Saltburn —– (3) [6.38%] —– (– CSA – CCA – PFC –)
• A Thousand and One —– (3) [6.38%] —– (– Gotham – IFJA – NBR –)
• BlackBerry —– (2) [4.26%] —– (– IFJA – NBR –)
• The Boy and the Heron —– (2) [4.26%] —– (– FFC – NBR –)
• Dream Scenario —– (2) [4.26%] —– (– Sat – IFJA –)
• John Wick: Chapter 4 —– (2) [4.26%] —– (– ICG – IFJA –)
• The Killer —– (2) [4.26%] —– (– IFJA – LVFCC –)
• Passages —– (2) [4.26%] —– (– Gotham – Spirit –)
• Scrapper —– (2) [4.26%] —– (– Sat – NBR –)
• Showing Up —– (2) [4.26%] —– (– Gotham – NBR –)
• Theater Camp —– (2) [4.26%] —– (– CSA – NBR –)
• We Grown Now —– (2) [4.26%] —– (– Spirit – NBR –)
• All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– NBR –)
• Beau Is Afraid —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– IFJA –)
• Birth/Rebirth —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– CSA –)
• Bottoms —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– CSA –)
• Cocaine Bear —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– CSA –)
• The Donor Party —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– CSA –)
• Earth Mama —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– NBR –)
• Emily —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– CSA –)
• Fair Play —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– IFJA –)
• The Flash —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– CSA –)
• Flora and Son —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– NBR –)
• How I Learned to Fly —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– CSA –)
• Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– CSA –)
• Joy Ride —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– CSA –)
• Jules —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– CSA –)
• The Little Mermaid —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– ICG –)
• Memory —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– CSA –)
• Monica —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– CSA –)
• Origin —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– BFCC –)
• The Persian Version —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– NBR –)
• Priscilla —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– CSA –)
• Reality —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– Gotham –)
• Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– CSA –)
• Robot Dreams —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– IFJA –)
• Rustin —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– CSA –)
• Summoning Sylvia —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– CSA –)
• Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– ICG –)
• Transformers: Rise of the Beasts —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– CSA –)
• What Comes Around —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– CSA –)
• Wonka —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– CSA –)
• Your Lucky Day —– (1) [2.13%] —– (– CSA –)

Locks & Near Locks: With a guaranteed ten slots of fill, we are left more often to wonder what would make it in a five-wide slate rather than what will miss the top ten. The four titles listed as “lock” or “near lock” are the films I think would have made a five-wide slate regardless of other outcomes. Oppenheimer, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Poor Things just seem too ubiquitous to be ignored. And sure enough, all four were nominated at BAFTA.

Goods: Anatomy of a Fall, which I’ve rated merely as “good” is the fifth BAFTA nominee but it doesn’t feel like a safe Best Picture nominee during the five-nominee era. Rather “Good” title Barbie seems more likely due to its sheer popularity. That said, the last of the three “good” candidates could also have claimed a slot among the five: The Zone of Interest.

Borderline/Predicted: With seven slots assuredly taken, we’re left with three borderlines facing off against five additional ones for those final three slots. Those three slots are likely to go to the PGA nominees Past Lives, American Fiction, and Maestro. All three have the potential to fall to one of the others but I’d be a bit taken aback if they did. Past Lives seems like the kind of good-natured movie the Academy loves to herald without caring to go beyond that. Much like Minari in spite of completely different thematic elements. American Fiction has that audience award from the Toronto International Film Festival bolstering its chances. This year; however, seems like the kind of year such victories don’t help. Rounding out the list is Maestro. While the film wasn’t quite as acclaimed as its early buzz suggested it would be, the film has still been an ever-present part of precursor season and getting the PGA nomination likely keeps it from being forgotten.

Borderline/Not Predicted: The Color Purple was once a major threat for a nomination and is now faded to almost also-ran status. The critics weren’t over the moon about the film and it hasn’t been a box office juggernaut. Still, it and American Fiction are the only films that deal with the Black experience in America (albeit at vastly different periods in history) and that might earn it quite a few citations. It has its fans, so don’t quite count it out. That said, I really don’t expect it to be a nominee on Tuesday. A film that could surprise is All of Us Strangers. It’s done quite well with critics and has a major Best Actor contender at its core. That profile should give it a shot at Oscar. However, it’s unusual subject matter (not the queer part) might not bolster its chances. That said, if the Academy wants to recognize queer stories, this is their best opportunity this year…that they probably won’t take.

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-verse is one of the most nominated films of the year and that’s even outside the Animated Feature category. That recognition can’t count for nothing. That said, the days of animated films earning Best Picture nominations are likely behind us. Saltburn did well at BAFTA, for the most part, but it’s an incredibly divisive film and if the Academy isn’t likely to go with a more acclaimed title like All of Us Strangers, I can’t see them supporting Saltburn either. Last is Todd Haynes’ May December. If Carol couldn’t make the list in spite of major acclaim and plenty of indications that it was a Best Picture contender, the less supported and honored May December probably doesn’t have a shot.

Other Citations: Godzilla Minus One is on the list only because of the critical acclaim. It’s that rare monster movie that ends up a critical and box office success. That’s the only real reason to mention it here. Lastly, The Iron Claw came out late in the season and rode its critical acclaim to some attention during the precursors. Unfortunately, it wasn’t enough to overcome that late-to-the-party positioning. The same could be true for the not-mentioned-here Origin. That film had a much longer window to built a consensus in; however, it just hasn’t. If they were going to delay it until the end of the year, they could have just delayed it another year and competed next year. Now it’s too late.

In Summary: In the end, this has been one of the most impressive years the Oscars have had in some time. Several Oscar contenders of past years held off until this year due to the waning vestiges of COVID slipping away. That compounding of event pictures and acclaimed productions have made this a very rich year but that also means a lot of good performances and productions are going to get left out. We’ll only hope this isn’t a byproduct of the COVID-era and is something that might persist for years to come. We shall see. For now, there’s the Oscars.

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And that’s everything for this year. I hope you enjoy. It’s been a crazy year, so let’s see how we do on the morrow.