We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of January and see what films flourished and faltered. Then we’ll look forward to March and see what has some potential.
Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts
January Retrospective
When we looked forward to January back in December, the Academy Awards contests for the 96th annual were still in process. As such, I talked about two films, one for the current season and one for the next. The one for the current season was Origin, which seemed to have hit a bad release window that muted its impact and ultimately led it to be ignored in spite of rumor that Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor was heading towards a Andrea Riseborough-type surprise. That didn’t manifest.
The other film was the sci-fi drama I.S.S., a film that I thought might have a chance at the Visual Effects category but, like 65 before it, the early release coupled with the bad reviews and weak box office have likely already doomed the film.
March Forecast
March isn’t typically a busy month in terms of Oscar contenders, but there are a surprising number of contenders releasing, though two of them are visual effects-only contenders. Those titles are Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire and Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire. Since neither film’s predecessor collected Oscar nominations, their chances are likely limited.
So too are the chances for The American Society of Magical Negroes. Apart from it being a comedy, which the Academy tends to ignore, the film’s early viewers have been unimpressed. No chance of a Get Out-level momentum-building opportunity with this one.
The next most likely Oscar contender is Kung Fu Panda 4. This vaunted series has pulled out two nominations for Best Animated Feature; however, the third film, despite strong reviews, didn’t manage to score. That could spell trouble for this one of two fourth-part films releasing this year (Despicable Me 4 being the other). At this point, without stellar reviews, I’m not certain it will be contending anywhere other than the Annie Awards where DreamWorks films tend to do better than with the Academy.
And finally is Dune: Part Two. Three years ago, the first part in the series scored a massive 10 Oscar nominations, though was shockingly left out of the Best Directing race. When the film was originally slated for 2023, we thought it could be a contender but it ended up being a stacked year so the decision to move it into 2024 was a good one. Still, a March release isn’t the most helpful in terms of mounting an Oscar campaign but the film is sure to at least be a contender in several craft categories and, if it’s a critical triumph, it could make it into the Best Picture race as well. Directing, however, does not seem a likely nomination this time out as it’s incredibly difficult for sequels to nab a nomination in that category. Even the second film in the Lord of the Rings trilogy failed to get a citation there in spite of going on in its third part to a record-setting 11-for-11 victory for the film, including its director.
That’s everything for the month of March from me, so let’s see what Pete and Thomas have to say.
Pete Patrick’s Thoughts
January Retrospective
January was marked by the expansion of 2023 awards film and the releases of inconsequential new films.
March Forecast
March begins impressively with the long-awaited release of Dune: Part Two and ends with such potential blockbusters as Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire as well as such possible critical favorites as Wicked Little Letters, Asphalt City, and the remake of The Wages of Fear. In-between we get Kung Fu Panda 4, Love Lies Bleeding, and American Dreamer. Things should be warming up at the box-office as Spring comes in.
Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts
January Retrospective
Only Society of the Snow picked up any Oscar nominations, and it looks unlikely to win either of them. Though having just seen The Zone of Interest and having not been that impressed by it, I wonder if Society could pull off a win as International Feature. Probably unlikely as it is hard to win against a Holocaust film, but it was the more gripping one.
March Forecast
Dune Part Two is likely to be a major player in next year’s Oscar races. The original was nominated for best picture and won in six of the tech categories. It is hard to imagine this one not doing the same, at least when it comes to nominations.
Kung Fu Panda 4 is a possibility for animated feature, but so far, the only one is the series to get a nomination is the original (Editor’s Note: the second film was also nominated). So, this seems unlikely to score one.
Space: The Longest Goodbye could pull off a nomination for documentary feature, though this year’s nominees were all foreign made.
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire could get a visual effects nomination, but probably not. Only the first film of the series managed to do that.
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire is also a possibility for visual effects and is more likely to score one than Ghostbusters.
Limbo is the independent type of film that could get a screenplay nomination.
Remembering Gene Wilder is a documentary that could score a nomination for a well-loved actor.
On the Adamant is a French documentary that has great reviews and could get a nomination.
