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The Set Decorators Society doesn’t have a lot of history to tell us how much they can predict the Oscars but when paired with the Art Directors Guild, trends can be confirmed.

SET DECORATORS SOCIETY AWARDS

Best Period Set Decoration

Killers of the Flower Moon (Peter)
Maestro
Napoleon
Oppenheimer (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Poor Things (Wesley, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: With Poor Things competing here instead of in Fantasy where it won at the Art Directors Guild, it comes into direct conflict with the winner at the ADG. Pitting Oppenheimer against Poor Things is a tough call but I give Poor Things the edge.
Pete Patrick: I give the edge to 1920s era specific Killers of the Flower Moon over 1940s-1950s mixed era of Oppenheimer.
Thomas La Tourette: It feels like Poor Things should have been in the Fantasy category, which may hurt its chances here. Something more period like Oppenheimer or Napoleon could win, but it is hard to argue against the excess of Poor Things.

Best Fantasy Set Decoration

Barbie (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (RU:Thomas)
The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Wonka (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: With Poor Things out of the way, the remaining Oscar nominee, Barbie, has little competition for the win, though Wonka could surprise.
Pete Patrick: Most likely Barbie with Wonka its closest competitor.
Thomas La Tourette: Without the major competition from Poor Things, Barbie should easily prevail.

Best Contemporary Set Decoration

The Killer
Leave the World Behind
May December (RU:Peter)
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Saltburn (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Saltburn should complete its contemporary streak, but Missing Impossible is a strong possibility as well.
Pete Patrick: I would give it to Saltburn, but May December is also worthy so neither would surprise.
Thomas La Tourette: The sumptuous designs of Saltburn should make this an easy win.

Best Comedy/Musical Set Decoration

American Fiction (Peter)
Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.
Asteroid City (Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Candy Cane Lane (RU:Wesley)
The Little Mermaid (Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: It’s strange to break out comedy/musicals and not include Barbie, but here we are and perhaps they have a rule of films placing in more than one category. That’s a boon for Asteroid City, which is the most fantastical of these titles, though I could see Candy Cane Lane making a play with its bounteous Christmas decor.
Pete Patrick: I can’t see anything other than American Fiction winning this one, but maybe Asteroid City can do it.
Thomas La Tourette: This seems like it will be between The Little Mermaid and Asteroid City. The precision behind Wes Anderson’s movies is well liked, but the grander scale of Mermaid should take it to the win.