While the Oscar outcome may seem inevitable, a shock victory here could turn the tides.
PRODUCERS GUILD OF AMERICA AWARDS
Best Picture
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon (RU:Peter)
Maestro
Oppenheimer (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Wesley Lovell: The proxy battle of Barbenheimer will reach its denouement at the PGA. If Barbie can win, it’s Oscar prospects don’t improve but it wouldn’t be a surprising victory. That said, Oppenheimer has won over weaker odds, so Oppenheimer winning over Barbie seems certain.
Pete Patrick: Oppenheimer will most assuredly win this one with Killers of the Flower Moon its closest runner-up.
Thomas La Tourette: Barbie may have been the most successful film of the year by far, but I think the guild will go for Oppenheimer. It was successful at the box office too, which cannot have been easy for a three-hour film biography. It may not have been the total cultural icon that Barbie was, but it still made quite an impact. I expect it to win unless the guild goes totally for box office returns.
Best Animated Feature
The Boy and the Heron (Peter, RU:Wesley)
Elemental (RU:Thomas)
Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse (Wesley, RU:Peter)
The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Thomas)
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Wesley Lovell: This is the one place where The Boy and the Heron doesn’t have a prayer. Sure, it was a decent box office hit for a Miyazaki effort but Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse was one of the biggest hits of the year and that’s with The Super Mario Bros. also dominating the box office. The difference is that Spider-Man was universally acclaimed while Mario was not.
Pete Patrick: This could go to either The Boy and the Heron or Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. The latter being the bigger moneymaker is more likely here but I’m looking forward to an upset in favor of the former.
Thomas La Tourette: Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse was wildly successful at the box office, something the guild will always pay attention to. It did not feel like a complete movie to me, just one sitting in place the next installment of the franchise, but I do not see any other film ready to knock it out of the win. Both Elemental and The Super Mario Bros. Movie did well with Elemental surprising with its steady income over the weeks. Either of them could pull an upset, but it will be hard to beat Spider-Man.
Best Documentary
20 Days in Mariupol (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
American Symphony (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Beyond Utopia (RU:Thomas)
The Disappearance of Shere Hite
The Mother of All Lies
Smoke Sauna Sisterhood
Squaring the Circle (The Story of Hipgnosis)
Wesley Lovell: None of these are exactly box office hits, so they might actually choose based on quality. Only one is an Oscar nominee, so nothing else really has a chance. Only two of the remaining six are Oscar shortlisters, so American Symphony and Beyond Utopia would be the best bets to overcome 20 Days in Mariupol in one of the least credible Oscar precursors for Documentary Feature.
Pete Patrick: The topical 20 Days in Mariupol should take this easily with American Symphony its closest runner-up.
Thomas La Tourette: American Symphony was the most talked about of the nominees, but I just did not get that totally into it. I wonder if the harrowing 20 Days in Mariupol might win instead. Beyond Utopia also sounds like an interesting one about refugees from North Korea. I will go for 20 Days to win.
