With the Writers Guild of America abdicating its position (ceremony after the Oscars) as a precursor (a poor one truth be told), our best precursor for Best Adapted Screenplay is now the USC Scripter prize.

USC SCRIPTER AWARDS

Best Adapted Screenplay

American Fiction (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Origin
Poor Things

Wesley Lovell: While I initially thought Oppenheimer would be the winner, American Fiction has also been winning tons of precursors in this category and is looking like the odds-on favorite, though I wouldn’t be shocked if Oppenheimer still won.
Pete Patrick: Will they place the emphasis on the screenplay or the source material? If the former, American Fiction would seem to be the favorite. If the latter, Oppenheimer wins hands down. I suspect it will be the former.
Thomas La Tourette: I could see American Fiction winning, as the screenplay was something one came out talking about and it did just win the BAFTA. However, Oppenheimer might win as it is on a roll through the precursors.