In the middle of July, it’s difficult to say what will ultimate wind up with Oscars. That said, a number of contenders have already shown up and some of them have faltered while others emerged that weren’t on the radar previously. Here are our predictions as they stand in the month of July. This month, we’re adding predictions for film editing and cinematography.

KEY:

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: Megalopolis completed its descent from my predictions list while Anora, Here, and The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (among others) make their debuts. I’m now not as certain that Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse will release this year, so its chances are dwindling, though not gone. Horizon collapsed while The Bikeriders became a box office dud. My predictions for winners have not changed but might once the dust of the season begins to settle. There’s still a lot of volatility and in the next two months, we’ll see a handful of changes, but this is where I’m at currently.
Pete Patrick: Around and around, we go. With no major Oscar contenders releasing between now and the late summer-early fall film festivals, the same films go in and out of my predictions with no major changes yet.
Thomas LaTourette: Definitely changes this month. Horizon: An American Saga opened to poor reviews and is off my list. Anora and Gladiator II have made the best picture list. The director’s race is looking interesting with Denis Villeneuve and Ridley Scott looking like they might score nominations for sequels, not something that used to happen often. As always there is debate about whether some roles will be lead or supporting. And with two films coming out, Saoirse Ronan will have to decide whether she tries in both or as lead or support for only one. Most of these movies are still sight unseen, so we go by trailers or rumors. There will be more changes in the future, but it is starting to feel more like a list that could last for awhile.

Best Picture

WLPPTL Anora
WLPPTL Blitz
WLPPTL Conclave
WLPPTL Dune: Part Two
WLPPTL Emilia Perez
WLPPTL Gladiator II
WLPPTL Here
WLPPTL Joker: Folie à Deux
WLPPTL Juror #2
WLPPTL Kinds of Kindness
WLPPTL Nickel Boys
WLPPTL Nosferatu
WLPPTL The Piano Lesson
WLPPTL Queer
WLPPTL Sing Sing
WLPPTL Wicked

Best Animated Feature

WLPPTL Inside Out 2
WLPPTL The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim
WLPPTL The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol
WLPPTL Memoir of a Snail
WLPPTL Moana 2
WLPPTL Piece by Piece
WLPPTL Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse
WLPPTL Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
WLPPTL The Wild Robot

Best Directing

WLPPTL Anora – Sean Baker
WLPPTL Blitz – Steve McQueen
WLPPTL Conclave – Edward Berger
WLPPTL Dune: Part Two – Denis Villeneuve
WLPPTL Gladiator II – Ridley Scott
WLPPTL Here – Robert Zemeckis
WLPPTL Queer – Luca Guadagnino

Best Actor

WLPPTL Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
WLPPTL Daniel Craig – Queer
WLPPTL Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
WLPPTL Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
WLPPTL Andrew Garfield – We Live in a Time
WLPPTL Tom Hanks – Here
WLPPTL Paul Mescal – Gladiator II
WLPPTL Joaquin Phoenix – Joker: Folie à Deux
WLPPTL John David Washington – The Piano Lesson

Best Actress

WLPPTL Amy Adams – Nightbitch
WLPPTL Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
WLPPTL Karla Sofia Gascon – Emilia Perez
WLPPTL Angelina Jolie – Maria
WLPPTL Jessica Lange – Long Day’s Journey Into Night
WLPPTL Mikey Madison – Anora
WLPPTL Demi Moore – The Substance
WLPPTL Florence Pugh – We Live in a Time
WLPPTL Saoirse Ronan – Blitz
WLPPTL Robin Wright – Here

Best Supporting Actor

WLPPTL Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
WLPPTL Willem Dafoe – Nosferatu
WLPPTL Harris Dickinson – Blitz
WLPPTL Ben Foster – Long Day’s Journey Into Night
WLPPTL Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson
WLPPTL John Lithgow – Conclave
WLPPTL Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing
WLPPTL Drew Starkey – Queer
WLPPTL Stanley Tucci – Conclave
WLPPTL Denzel Washington – Gladiator II

Best Supporting Actress

WLPPTL Uzo Aduba – The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
WLPPTL Toni Collette – Juror #2
WLPPTL Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson
WLPPTL Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Nickel Boys
WLPPTL Natasha Lyonne – His Three Daughters
WLPPTL Lesley Manville – Queer
WLPPTL Margaret Qualley – The Substance
WLPPTL Isabella Rossellini – Conclave
WLPPTL Zoe Saldana – Emilia Perez

Best Original Screenplay

WLPPTL Anora
WLPPTL Blitz
WLPPTL Emilia Perez
WLPPTL The Fire Inside
WLPPTL Hard Truths
WLPPTL Here
WLPPTL A Real Pain
WLPPTL We Live in a Time

Best Adapted Screenplay

WLPPTL Conclave
WLPPTL Gladiator II
WLPPTL Long Day’s Journey Into Night
WLPPTL Nickel Boys
WLPPTL Nightbitch
WLPPTL The Piano Lesson
WLPPTL Queer
WLPPTL Sing Sing

Best Film Editing

WLPPTL Anora
WLPPTL Blitz
WLPPTL Conclave
WLPPTL Dune: Part Two
WLPPTL Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
WLPPTL Gladiator II
WLPPTL Nickel Boys
WLPPTL Sing Sing

Best Cinematography

WLPPTL Blitz
WLPPTL Conclave
WLPPTL Dune: Part Two
WLPPTL Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
WLPPTL Gladiator II
WLPPTL Here
WLPPTL Maria
WLPPTL Nosferatu
WLPPTL Sing Sing

Best Sound

WLPPTL Blitz
WLPPTL Dune: Part Two
WLPPTL Gladiator II
WLPPTL Joker: Folie à Deux
WLPPTL Megalopolis
WLPPTL The Substance
WLPPTL Twisters
WLPPTL Wicked

Best Visual Effects

WLPPTL Blitz
WLPPTL Deadpool & Wolverine
WLPPTL Dune: Part Two
WLPPTL Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
WLPPTL Gladiator II
WLPPTL Here
WLPPTL Joker: Folie à Deux
WLPPTL Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
WLPPTL Mufasa: The Lion King
WLPPTL The Substance
WLPPTL Twisters
WLPPTL Wicked