One last update before the fall festivals with some categories seeing minimal changes while others find themselves radically different. We’ve added Original Score and Makeup & Hairstyling predictions to this list with Production Design and Costume Design coming in September and the remaining categories waiting until shortlists are revealed late this year.

KEY:

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: Not a lot of big changes this month as we wait for Venice/Telluride/Toronto at the end of this month, beginning of next. I finally pulled Spider-Man out of the list since it’s clear it isn’t coming out this year as they haven’t released any trailers or set a release date and that’s a sure sign a big film like that isn’t coming out this year. Beyond that, just a few other minor changes and we’re good to go.
Pete Patrick: We’re in mid-August and the only film that has been released thus far with major Oscar buzz is Sing Sing, which has had a slow rollout from A24 over the past few weeks with little fanfare. Dune: Part Two, the box-office hit from earlier in the year, is also an anticipated Best Picture nominee but one with stronger odds in technical categories than Best Picture. Cannes hits Anora and Emilia Pérez are also making prognosticators’ lists but neither seems like a winner, at least thus far. Of the yet unseen, anticipation runs high for Blitz, Conclave, Gladiator II, Nickel Boys, Queer, and the recently confirmed release of A Complete Unknown. That’s eleven contenders for ten spots. Consequently, I’m going to take a big leap and remove Dune: Part Two from my list, at least for now.
Thomas LaTourette: As usual, there was some movement again. Some movies like the Bob Dylan biopic, A Complete Unknown, suddenly get buzz and start making it onto lists. At this point I do not have any idea of how good it might be, but I feel the need to include it in a couple of places. Saoirse Ronan has two films coming out, Blitz and The Outrun, and will she try for two nominations or just one, and in what category. Blitz is the bigger movie, and she could go either for lead or supporting, though supporting might be the better fit for it. There is some talk now about Lady Gaga going for supporting as well for the Joker: Folie à Deux. And the four actresses from Emilia Perez need to figure out what categories they want to be in. Gladiator II thrilled with its trailer, but it will be interesting to see what it manages to pull in at the end. I am not sure if Ridley Scott will get a nomination for directing it, but, if he does, he might become the leading candidate for it. It is getting interesting.

Best Picture

WLPPTBTL Anora
WLPPTBTL Blitz
WLPPTBTL A Complete Unknown
WLPPTBTL Conclave
WLPPTBTL Dune: Part Two
WLPPTBTL Emilia Perez
WLPPTBTL Gladiator II
WLPPTBTL Here
WLPPTBTL Joker: Folie à Deux
WLPPTBTL Juror #2
WLPPTBTL Nickel Boys
WLPPTBTL Nosferatu
WLPPTBTL The Piano Lesson
WLPPTBTL Queer
WLPPTBTL Sing Sing
WLPPTBTL We Live in a Time
WLPPTBTL Wicked

Best Animated Feature

WLPPTBTL Flow
WLPPTBTL Inside Out 2
WLPPTBTL The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim
WLPPTBTL The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol
WLPPTBTL Memoir of a Snail
WLPPTBTL Moana 2
WLPPTBTL Piece by Piece
WLPPTBTL Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
WLPPTBTL The Wild Robot

Best Directing

WLPPTBTL Anora – Sean Baker
WLPPTBTL Blitz – Steve McQueen
WLPPTBTL Conclave – Edward Berger
WLPPTBTL Dune: Part Two – Denis Villeneuve
WLPPTBTL Gladiator II – Ridley Scott
WLPPTBTL Here – Robert Zemeckis
WLPPTBTL Queer – Luca Guadagnino

Best Actor

WLPPTBTL Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
WLPPTBTL Daniel Craig – Queer
WLPPTBTL Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
WLPPTBTL Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
WLPPTBTL Tom Hanks – Here
WLPPTBTL Paul Mescal – Gladiator II
WLPPTBTL Joaquin Phoenix – Joker: Folie à Deux
WLPPTBTL John David Washington – The Piano Lesson

Best Actress

WLPPTBTL Amy Adams – Nightbitch
WLPPTBTL Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
WLPPTBTL Karla Sofia Gascon – Emilia Perez
WLPPTBTL Angelina Jolie – Maria
WLPPTBTL Jessica Lange – Long Day’s Journey Into Night
WLPPTBTL Mikey Madison – Anora
WLPPTBTL Saoirse Ronan – Blitz
WLPPTBTL Saoirse Ronan – The Outrun
WLPPTBTL Robin Wright – Here

Best Supporting Actor

WLPPTBTL Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
WLPPTBTL Willem Dafoe – Nosferatu
WLPPTBTL Ben Foster – Long Day’s Journey Into Night
WLPPTBTL Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson
WLPPTBTL John Lithgow – Conclave
WLPPTBTL Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing
WLPPTBTL Drew Starkey – Queer
WLPPTBTL Stanley Tucci – Conclave
WLPPTBTL Denzel Washington – Gladiator II

Best Supporting Actress

WLPPTBTL Uzo Aduba – The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
WLPPTBTL Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson
WLPPTBTL Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Nickel Boys
WLPPTBTL Lady Gaga – Joker: Folie à Deux
WLPPTBTL Lesley Manville – Queer
WLPPTBTL Saoirse Ronan – Blitz
WLPPTBTL Isabella Rossellini – Conclave
WLPPTBTL Zoe Saldana – Emilia Perez

Best Original Screenplay

WLPPTBTL Anora
WLPPTBTL Blitz
WLPPTBTL Emilia Perez
WLPPTBTL The Fire Inside
WLPPTBTL Hard Truths
WLPPTBTL Here
WLPPTBTL His Three Daughter
WLPPTBTL A Real Pain
WLPPTBTL The Room Next Door

Best Adapted Screenplay

WLPPTBTL A Complete Unknown
WLPPTBTL Conclave
WLPPTBTL Long Day’s Journey Into Night
WLPPTBTL Nickel Boys
WLPPTBTL Nightbitch
WLPPTBTL The Piano Lesson
WLPPTBTL Queer
WLPPTBTL Sing Sing

Best Original Score

WLPPTBTL Blitz
WLPPTBTL Conclave
WLPPTBTL Dune: Part Two
WLPPTBTL Gladiator II
WLPPTBTL Joker: Folie à Deux
WLPPTBTL The Piano Lesson
WLPPTBTL Queer
WLPPTBTL The Wild Robot

Best Film Editing

WLPPTBTL Anora
WLPPTBTL Blitz
WLPPTBTL Conclave
WLPPTBTL Dune: Part Two
WLPPTBTL Gladiator II
WLPPTBTL Sing Sing

Best Cinematography

WLPPTBTL Blitz
WLPPTBTL A Complete Unknown
WLPPTBTL Conclave
WLPPTBTL Dune: Part Two
WLPPTBTL Gladiator II
WLPPTBTL Here
WLPPTBTL Maria
WLPPTBTL Nosferatu
WLPPTBTL Sing Sing

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

WLPPTBTL Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
WLPPTBTL Deadpool & Wolverine
WLPPTBTL Dune: Part Two
WLPPTBTL Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
WLPPTBTL Joker: Folie á Deux
WLPPTBTL Longlegs
WLPPTBTL Nosferatu
WLPPTBTL The Substance
WLPPTBTL Wicked

Best Sound

WLPPTBTL Blitz
WLPPTBTL A Complete Unknown
WLPPTBTL Conclave
WLPPTBTL Dune: Part Two
WLPPTBTL Gladiator II
WLPPTBTL Joker: Folie à Deux
WLPPTBTL Nosferatu
WLPPTBTL Twisters
WLPPTBTL Wicked

Best Visual Effects

WLPPTBTL Deadpool & Wolverine
WLPPTBTL Dune: Part Two
WLPPTBTL Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
WLPPTBTL Gladiator II
WLPPTBTL Here
WLPPTBTL Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
WLPPTBTL Mufasa: The Lion King
WLPPTBTL The Substance
WLPPTBTL Twisters
WLPPTBTL Wicked