We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of XXX and see what films succeeded and faltered. Then we’ll look forward to XXXX and see what has some potential.
Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts
July Retrospective
July was a mixed bag for Oscar contenders. Some films did well at the box office but poorly with critics while some did well with both and some poorly with both. It’s interesting to see what succeeded and what failed.
Let’s start with the distinctions. The box office hits were Deadpool & Wolverine, Despicable Me 4, and Twisters on the wide release front. Sing Sing and Didi did well in their opening weekends but Didi collapsed faster and may end up being outpaced by Sing Sing. The only genuine flop was Fly Me to the Moon, which opened sub-$10 million and has barely managed to double that in five weeks of release.
On the acclaim front, Sing Sing and Didi were the only unqualified successes. Sing Sing had the higher scores but Didi was no slouch. Of the rest, Deadpool & Wolverine and Twisters did acceptably with critics on average but neither would be considered a hit with them. Despicable Me 4 and Fly Me to the Moon had generally mediocre responses.
What does this mean for their box office chances. Both Didi and Sing Sing are in strong positions going into the fall. Deadpool & Wolverine and Twisters can ride their overall successes into the craft categories but won’t breakout beyond that while Despicable Me 4 will be the latest in that franchise to likely be ignored by the Academy while Fly Me to the Moon has all its hopes dashed by these results.
September Forecast
September has an interesting array of films. There are the festival successes, festival failures, animated films, and one sequel. How they perform at the box office may determine their chances at the Oscars.
We’ll start with the festival hits.
A Different Man released at Berlinale this year and won the award for leading performance (Sebastian Stan) and was also nominated for the top prize. It also won the “Directors to Watch” award at the Palm Springs Film Festival. Berlinale is the major deal here and that will certainly get Stan into the conversation for Best Actor. However, it’s a type of body horror film that might turn off some voters, so take his candidacy with a pinch of salt right now.
While its nomination for Best International Film at the Munich Film Festival isn’t terribly impressive, The Substance picked up a significant prize at Cannes. Writer/director Caroline Fargeat took the prize for Best Screenplay, which is impressive. It was also a nominee for the Palme d’Or, though it lost there. That makes it another Oscar contender. However, like A Different Man, it’s also a body horror film and based on the premises of the two pictures, it seems more likely that Different will have more success than Substance.
Meanwhile, there are two festival flops releasing in September.
Releasing at Toronto in 2023, Lee was thought to be a contender for last year’s Oscars but got pushed into 2023 to an unspecified date. It didn’t do well with the critics who saw it there and the push to September suggests the film is struggling for Oscar contention. Never count out Kate Winslet but it seems unlikely the film’s going to get much traction more than a year after it was first seen. While it’s possible box office returns could bolster its chances but war-set films rarely ever do well at the box office these days, so that’s probably not likely to help.
Then there’s the long awaited Megalopolis, which showed at Cannes this year. Francis Ford Coppola’s passion project took far too many years to make it to the big screen and while he was received warmly at Cannes, the film wasn’t well received in its own right. Throw in the recent revelation that Coppola forcibly kissed interns on the project and the whole thing looks like it’s headed for collapse. It will need huge box office support to overcome something like that.
There are two major animated features releasing in September. One is an origin story for a longstanding franchise and the other is an original title.
The origin story is Transformers One, which goes back to the beginning to explain why there is a war for earth… or so it seems. It has an impressive voice cast and is sure to do somewhat well at the box office. However, after the shunned Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem last year, animators clearly draw the line at TV programs being adapted to the big screen but really, you just have to look at The Simpsons for the prime example of that.
The new concept is The Wild Robot. This DreamWorks film, releasing through Universal, had an impressive and awe-inspiring first trailer and the Academy does love new properties in the Animated Feature category. DreamWorks has struggled in the last several years to get respect from the Academy but How to Train Your Dragon filmmaker Chris Sanders has the gravitas to pull it off. If reviews are good, it will be one of the year’s major contenders even if it has issues winning at the box office, which it might.
Finally, we have Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, the long-hoped-for sequel to 1988’s megahit Beetlejuice. Tim Burton has changed as a filmmaker since that film was released and much of his whimsy seems to have been packed behind his own ego. Few of this recent films have been worth consideration. However, the return to what made him popular might help turn things around for him but can nostalgia overcome bad reviews? We won’t know until they come out. Great reviews will help the film land a nomination for Makeup & Hairstyling and maybe Visual Effects. Terrible reviews could shut it out entirely.
Now that I’ve had my say, let’s see what Pete and Thomas think.
Pete Patrick’s Thoughts
July Retrospective
The big hit came at the end of the month with the release of Deadpool 3 – Deadpool & Wolverine. Whether the film’s box-office success will result in Oscar nods might be a stretch, but you never know.
Twisters, the long-awaited sequel-in-name-only to 1996’s Twister and the horror film Longlegs will probably also do well in the secondary market of home video and streaming but neither seems bound for any year-end awards either.
The comedy Fly Me to the Moon and the drama Touch might find their targeted audiences in secondary markets as well, but neither is likely to have a lasting impact.
September Forecast
Oscar hype will reach a fever pitch at the Toronto Film Festival which takes place from September 9-19, but the only serious Oscar contender being released to theatres in September is the animated film, The Wild Robot, which comes out at the end of the month.
The biggest box-office hit is likely to be Beetlejuice Beetlejuice in which Michael Keaton reprises his role from the 1988 film.
Another possible box-office hit is the Friday the 13th release, Speak No Evil.
The major Oscar contenders will all release between October and December.
Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts
July Retrospective
Either The Nature of Love or Widow Cliquot could grab a nomination for International Feature if France submits one of them.
Sing Sing looks like it will be a major Oscar contender. It should bring Colman Domingo a second straight Oscar nomination. And it will probably garner more for picture, director, supporting actor and adapted screenplay.
Twisters could pick up nominations for visual effects and perhaps sound.
The early reviews of Crossing are good so it might pull off a nom for screenplay. International film is less likely as it does not seem like the type of film that Georgia would submit.
September Forecast
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice has garnered good word of mouth and might be a contender for makeup & Hairstyling, production design, or costume design. There was even talk about best actor, but I sincerely doubt that.
The Wild Robot is a shoo-in for animated feature. Some think it could get other noms as well, but that seems less likely.
The Substance is bringing Demi Moore her best notices in years. It is not the type of film that usually scores Oscar nominations, but best actress and Makeup & Hairstyling are possibilities, though quite distant ones.
Lee supposedly boasts a good performance by Kate Winslet who can never be counted out, but this seems unlikely to be an Oscar contender.
Megalopolis sounded like an Oscar contender before it opened and early reviews were not kind. Still, a dream project by Francis Ford Coppola might pull off a few nominations.
