We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of September and see what films succeeded and faltered. Then we’ll look forward to November and see what has some potential.

Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts

September Retrospective
While September can be characterized by box office successes (The Wild Robot and Beetlejuice Beetlejuice), it was also noted for its flops (Megalopolis, Transformers One). The same applies to the Oscar contender flops and successes.

Not much changed between how I felt in August as I do now. A Different Man and The Substance performed about as well as could be expected considering their subject matters. Neither became a definitive Oscar contender nor did they lose their status. The same can be said of Lee, which managed to disappear into the ethos a little more fully.

Transformers One was well received but it didn’t do well at the box office and with the hefty contenders in animation this year, including another September release, it’s safe to say that it is now an outsider with little chance of a nomination. Turning itself into a frontrunner, however, was The Wild Robot. Ecstatic reviews and strong box office will likely put DreamWorks in direct competition with Pixar’s Inside Out 2 for the win this year with Inside Out likely having the edge due to the dominance Disney and Pixar have over the category.

Two different tales emerged over Oscar contenders Megalopolis and Beetlejuice Beetlejuice. The former had already suffered plenty of slings-and-arrows from its abortive festival run but its box office flop status will likely doom most of the chances it had, even in the craft categories. That same could be said for the Beetlejuice sequel. It may have had the box office cornered in September but the critics were left cold by it and that’s not a good sign for Oscar prospects. Still, it’s box office success might just allow it to slip into a few creative categories, especially ones that the original film was unfairly ignored in.

Saturday Night was the only film that settled on a release in September (after dilly-dallying on its release window) and while it had decent reviews, they weren’t the kind of reviews that overcome other good-but-not-great reviewed films.

With September in the rearview mirror, let’s take a look at November.

November Forecast

November will be where the last unseen films excel or fade. There might still be some unseen films in December but most of what we have down as known unknowns are out next month. While there are some festival releases that will finally be seen, most of what’s releasing are things that a lot of people haven’t had their chance at seeing.

The four wide releases this month with the most opportunity at Oscar consideration are also the four films on this list that haven’t been seen yet by anyone. Gladiator II is the latest attempt by Ridley Scott to get back into Oscar’s good graces but can it succeed? It’s a sequel to a Best Picture winner so there’s a lot riding on it. However, Scott has often had films that seemed like strong contenders but which wilted when finally seen and this is the second most likely of the four unknowns to be tripped up by critics.

The most likely is Here. If there’s a filmmaker that has fallen farther since his Oscar win (Forrest Gump), it’s Robert Zemeckis. For a while, his movies seemed like they could contend but then flopped so badly we forgot all about them. Lately, his work has trended towards the instantly forgettable. Here hopes to change that with Gump stars Tom Hanks and Robin Wright starring as the central couple around whose 50-plus years of marriage form the core of the film’s story. A great film would have already played at festivals but no one has seen this one yet. Perhaps there’s some hope that a Thanksgiving box office success will buoy the film but at this point, I don’t expect much from it.

Moana 2 is sure to be a box office hit and will probably score a song nomination but it looks fairly derivative and while Inside Out 2 tried to do something bold and new with its sequel material, Moana 2 doesn’t look like it will. It could still get a nomination for Animated Feature but it will need stellar reviews to overcome a lot of other films.

Finally, we have Wicked it’s the last major contender of the year and is sure to be a big player in the craft categories but it will need strong reviews to carry over to Best Picture where it has a decent shot of a nomination if it’s good. Waiting so long to show isn’t as unexpected for a film like this, one expected to be a big holiday box office player. Like Moana 2, it can be saved by strong reviews but if the reviews are savage, its chances diminish tremendously.

Of the seven limited release films on the docket for November, five of them played the festival circuit: Bird, Flow, The Piano Lesson, Queer, and Small Things Like These. Of these, only one was a smash with critics, Flow. One did poorly, Queer. The rest were generally well received but paled in comparison to there such players.

Bird and Small Things Like These are the most likely to be forgotten. Small Things has the highest profile since it stars last year’s Best Actor winner but it seems to have fared poorly in terms of traction. The Piano Lesson was thought to be a major contender and while it was received well enough, it didn’t pick up nearly the buzz we were expecting. Queer earned praise for its star, Daniel Craig, but was disliked by most critics on the whole. This puts its Oscar chances much lower than they might otherwise have been. Flow is a mystery. It was well received in its Annecy appearance in June and it showed at Cannes but didn’t build much buzz out of that. It certainly looks gorgeous, which could help it secure one of the non-major studio slots.

Finally, we have two films that weren’t on the festival circuit. Blitz has been seen and while the reviews have been solid, they’ve been largely unexceptional. Saoirse Ronan has earned some praise but if the film can’t secure bravura notices, it might struggle with Academy voters, which is what we had been expecting. Juror #2 on the other hand, is likely Clint Eastwood’s final film, which should generate some buzz for it. While the premise is quite fascinating and that alone could help bolster its support, it will need strong notices from critics more than any other film to remain in the competition. It’s been a bit since Eastwood had a major Oscar contender but one should never count him out.

That’s all I have for September, so let’s see what Pete and Thomas have to say next.

Pete Patrick’s Thoughts

September Retrospective
Finally, a month in which there were finally some releases with real Oscar potential. Chief among them is The Wild Robot which emerges as the early frontrunner for Best Animated Feature. The month also saw the release of The Substance, the first decently reviewed horror film in quite a role with strong roles for Demi Moore and Margaret Qualley. Less certain is the Oscar potential for Kate Winslet as WWII correspondent Lee Miller in Lee and Sebastian Stan in the comedy A Different Man while Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, a sequel to the 1988 film Beetlejuice, could land Golden Globe and other year-end awards nominations.

November Forecast
November will bring in some of the year’s most highly anticipated films including Cannes Film Festival winner Emilia Pérez, Sundance hit A Real Pain, Clint Eastwood’s Juror #2 reuniting Nicholas Hoult with Toni Collette who played his mother in About a Boy, Robert Zemeckis’ Here starring Tom Hanks, and Steve McQueen’s Blitz with an ensemble cast led by Saoirse Ronan.

Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts

September Retrospective
Not many of the September releases lived up to their hype. The Wild Robot looks poised for animated feature and perhaps a couple more. And a couple look to get noms for Makeup & Hairstyling, but that looks like it for the month’s releases.

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice has garnered good word of mouth and might be a contender for makeup & hairstyling and perhaps even costume design.

The Wild Robot is a shoo-in for animated feature. It looks likely to score nominations for score and song as well.

The Substance is bringing Demi Moore her best notices in years. It is not the type of film that usually scores Oscar nominations, but positive reviews make Makeup & Hairstyling a strong possibility. Moore has an outside chance for best actress, but an extremely doubtful one.

November Forecast
We now are getting into the time of year that the real Oscar contenders appear, so there will be a number of releases here that could garner multiple nominations. Blitz, The Piano Lesson, Gladiator II, and Emilia Pérez all look likely to get best picture noms. Several acting and tech nominations should appear in the following list too. It is nice that there are movies that I am looking forward to seeing in the theaters.

World War II set Blitz should garner nominations for picture and original screenplay. It may pick up some tech noms with costume design and sound being the most likely, but it might score even more. It is looking less likely to pick up any acting nominations.

Robert Zemeckis’ movies have not had much Oscar traction in years, but Here could pull off a couple of nominations if it is well reviewed.

Juror #2 is another enigma. Sometimes Clint Eastwood films do well at the Oscars, though not so much lately. Good reviews could pop it and Toni Collette back into Oscar consideration. More likely, it will pass by unnoticed.

Love for the composer could move Music by John Williams into the documentary feature category as they often like films related to music, though lately they seem to veer more towards foreign language nominees.

Emilia Pérez should be a major contender with nominations for picture, director, actress, supporting actress and adapted screenplay. I am not sure if it will pick up others, but that would be a major haul for an indie film set in Mexico partially about a trans character.

A Real Pain may well make Kieran Culkin an Oscar winner, while also pulling off a nomination for original screenplay. Best picture and actor are less likely, though could happen.

The Piano Lesson will likely score three acting nominations, with picture and adapted screenplay being possible as well.

All We Imagine as Light could be an International Feature nominee if India puts it forward as their film for consideration.

Gladiator II could prove a major Oscar contender. Its trailer certainly got people talking. Picture, supporting actor and several tech nominations seem pretty set, with actor, adapted screenplay and director also in the mix.

Wicked should score noms for set design, costume design and Makeup & Hairstyling.

Flow looks poised to capture one of the spots for animated feature.

On the other hand, Moana 2 is more on the cusp to pull off a nom for animated feature. It will more likely get one for original song.

Maria should pick up nominations for actress and costume design, but that will probably be it.

When if first played in Cannes, The Seed of the Sacred Fig looked poised to get several nominations. Talk about it has faded, but as Germany’s entrant for best international film, it could be a strong contender there.

September 5 is sneaking in under the radar, but the tense drama might pull of a nomination for adapted screenplay, but not sure it will get anything else.

Queer could nab Daniel Craig a first ever Oscar nomination, but it is doubtful that it could get any other Oscar love.