We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of November and see what films succeeded and faltered. Then we’ll look forward to January and see what has some potential.

Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts

November Retrospective
November was characterized by massive successes and massive flops in terms of Oscar capability. And that’s how I’m going to break them down this month with an extra middle ground for those who succeeded by didn’t get any movement. I’ll also include a few that released that I didn’t cover in October.

Let’s start with the failures.

Three of the eleven films I highlighted back in October fall into the flops category. Gladiator II leads things off. Despite solid box office numbers, critics weren’t impressed. As the precursors have been announced, the film has been relegated to the craft categories and even those aren’t very friend to it. The film may end up with half a dozen nominations but only below the line and none of those are guaranteed at this point.

Next up is a genuine, complete flop. Here was both a box office dud and a critical failure. It was a gimmick film that had a lot of potential but as Robert Zemeckis has proven in the last two decades, he isn’t the filmmaker he once was but unlike Ridley Scott (Gladiator II), Zemeckis can’t even draw crowds despite the top-lining performance of Tom Hanks.

Finally, we have a film that is a flop with critics with one central aspect that’s garnering positive attention. Queer marks Luca Guadagnino’s first major cinematic flop but his star, Daniel Craig, is earning raves and a few precursor citations. It’s possible he’s the only person nominated for the film but the film itself might be a drag on his candidacy.

Now, we’ve got five films that have succeeded but have gotten no Oscar traction.

Moana 2 was a box office smash, destroying Thanksgiving records and quickly outpacing Wicked at the box office. The problem is critics weren’t terribly impressed. The film has gotten a lukewarm reception from the precursors, which is on par with Disney’s recent Best Animated Feature fortunes. Thankfully they have Inside Out 2 to rep them in that category because it doesn’t seem like this one will be getting there.

Bird and Small Things Like These were well regarded by critics but have been absolute non-entities with year-end awards. While both have gotten one or two minor citations, their appearances have been largely non-existence, which suggests that the Academy will forget about them.

Blitz hasn’t gotten the support from critics it needs despite solid, if non-rave, reviews. Star Saoirse Ronan has two films in release this year and neither seem to be doing well for her nomination chances. This had a lot of potential but has faded so quickly that it would take a SAG/PGA/BAFTA-level resurgence to make an impact.

One should never count out Clint Eastwood and Juror #2 has gotten decent, if not exceptional, reviews. That might be enough to keep him in contention for what is likely his last movie. That narrative hasn’t taken hold yet but it could still as the Academy loves those kinds of stories. But like Blitz, it’s going to need a lot more precursor support than its gotten so far.

Before I hit the three unqualified successes I referenced in my October forecast, five films released in November that I didn’t mention and here’s how they’ve done.

A Real Pain has been consistently showing up for its screenplay and supporting actor Kieran Culkin. Hot off his Emmy wins, it seems like Culkin is closing in on his first Oscar nomination.

Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat was the standout documentary of the month and has gotten a handful of citations for Best Documentary Feature. That could position it well for Oscar consideration.

Heretic has gotten a smattering of support for Hugh Grant but an Oscar nomination is not likely, especially for a horror film.

All We Imagine as Light and The Seed of the Sacred Fig were two successful non-English language films that released in the month and both are doing well with the precursors so far.

Now, we’ll hit on the final three.

First we have Flow, which emerged from the festival circuit as a surefire nominee for Best Animated Feature. it’s gotten raves and has been on every list of Best Animated Feature nominees so far, so count this one in.

The Piano Lesson got decent reviews but hasn’t been the dominating force Netflix typically pushes. They may be focused on other titles right now but Malcolm Washington’s film has been garnering attention for star Danielle Deadwyler but little else. Still, the attention she’s gotten will mean the film is likely to get at least one nomination.

And with those two out of the way, we have the film that had the biggest question mark over its head since it was announced. Wicked, Part I was never a guaranteed success. Movie musicals have largely underperformed in the wake of the huge success of Chicago more than two decades ago. Although Wicked is one of Broadway’s most successful musicals and continues to win converts, there was no guarantee it would translate well to the big screen. Then it did. Critics raved. Audiences flocked. A star was born and the film seems to have locked itself in to several categories at the Oscars and may well be one of the most nominated films of the year. It is easily November’s biggest success story.

January Forecast

January is seldom a release window for Oscar contenders and next month will be no different. Several of this year’s Oscar contenders expand wide but there’s nothing new of note for the 98th Oscars.

With my thoughts out of the way, let’s get to Pete’s and Thomas’.

Pete Patrick’s Thoughts

November Retrospective
Wicked, Gladiator II, and Moana 2 cleaned up at the box-office and positioned themselves for strong awards consideration, particularly in the case of Wicked which earned the highest opening week grosses of all time for a film based on a Broadway musical. It broke the 46-year record previously held by Grease.

January Forecast
If you live in Israel or Cambodia, you can attend the world premiere of Bong Joon-Ho’s long-awaited Mickey 17 starring Robert Pattinson and Toni Collette, but if you live in the U.S., you will have to wait until April. If you live in Canada, you can go to the theatre to see the British hit, Paddington in Peru, but if you live in the U.S., you will have to wait until February. The best U.S. films getting wide releases in January will likely be Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl and Hard Truths. As in most recent years, the only films releasing anywhere in the U.S. for the first time in January are films so bad that they couldn’t get a release in the prior year. The best of a bad batch might be the latest horror movie to bear the title, Wolf Man. This one has no relation to the 1941 classic.

Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts

November Retrospective
When movies open, the critical reviews and box office take can still make a difference in how they are viewed as potential Oscar nominees. Wicked has done well both critically and financially and now looks likely to score more major nominations than I originally thought. Whereas mediocre reviews for Blitz, Juror #2, The Piano Lesson, and Moana 2 mean that they are likely to score few or no Oscar nominations.

World War II-set Blitz now looks likely to only pick up noms for costume design and sound.

Love for the composer could move Music by John Williams into the documentary feature category as they often like films related to music, though lately they seem to veer more towards foreign language nominees.

Emilia Pérez should be a major contender with nominations for picture, director, actress, supporting actress, song, and adapted screenplay. I am not sure if it will pick up others and it was quickly in and out of theaters which does not bode well for its chances of winning except for Zoe Saldaña who is the front runner for supporting actress.

A Real Pain may well make Kieran Culkin an Oscar winner, while also pulling off a nomination for original screenplay. Best picture and actor are less likely, though could happen.

The Piano Lesson will likely score a supporting nod for Danielle Deadwyler, with picture, supporting actor, and adapted screenplay being faintly possible as well.

All We Imagine as Light could be an International Feature nominee if India puts it forward as their film for consideration.

Gladiator II could prove a major Oscar contender. Its trailer certainly got people talking. Picture, supporting actor, and several tech nominations seem pretty set. If Ridley Scott is nominated for directing, he would stand a good chance of winning as he never has won before, but the odds of him getting the nomination are not high.

Before its release, Wicked seemed likely to score noms for set design, costume design, sound, and makeup & hairstyling. After a very successful opening, it now looks likely to score nominations for picture, actress, and supporting actress too. It might even get one for directing.

Flow looks poised to capture one of the spots for animated feature.

On the other hand, Moana 2 is not likely to pull off a nom for animated feature. It might get one for original song, but mediocre reviews make that seem less likely now.

Maria should pick up nominations for actress, cinematography, and costume design.

When it first played in Cannes, The Seed of the Sacred Fig looked poised to get several nominations. Talk about it has faded, but as Germany’s entrant for best international film, it could be a strong contender there.

September 5 is sneaking in under the radar, but the tense drama might pull off a nomination for adapted screenplay and perhaps best picture.

Queer should nab Daniel Craig a first-ever Oscar nomination, but it is doubtful that it could get any other Oscar love.

January Forecast
The only January release that looks likely to score a nomination is Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl which should get the final spot for animated feature. It must have played in New York and Los Angeles, but it is finally getting a nationwide release.