Since the Academy Award nominations are coming next week, we’ve moved all of our films to Stage 6, which is the precursors stage. Of the precursors we’re tracking, only six of them have yet to announce. Two of those are guilds (American Cinema Editors and Writers Guild of America) and four of them are other types of organizations (NAACP, USC Scripter, OFTA, and BAFTA). This was as of the day before posting goes live on 1/17/24.
As such, we’ll bypass the stage change announcements since all of the films have been moved. Last week, we also removed several films from our lists because they weren’t eligible for the Oscars or weren’t on their shortlists. That leaves us with 138 titles. It’s no small number.
With that out of the way, let’s look at the 20 films with the highest number of points. After that, we’ll look at the top ten per stage to see how things have shifted as each film hit a new stage.
Top Twenty Contenders (Out of 100 Points)
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Stage 6 of 6; Picture+) – 84.5
2. The Holdovers (Stage 6 of 6; Picture+) – 80.1
3. Oppenheimer (Stage 6 of 6; Picture+) – 79.2
4. Poor Things (Stage 6 of 6; Picture+) – 79.0
5. Barbie (Stage 6 of 6; Picture+) – 77.4
6. Maestro (Stage 6 of 6; Picture+) – 76.5
7. May December (Stage 6 of 6; Picture+) – 74.7
8. Nyad (Stage 6 of 6; Picture+) – 69.5
9. The Zone of Interest (Stage 6 of 6; Picture+) – 68.4
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Stage 6 of 6; Picture+) – 67.9
11. The Boy and the Heron (Stage 6 of 6; Picture+) – 66.6
12. American Fiction (Stage 6 of 6; Picture+) – 65.6
13. Napoleon (Stage 6 of 6; Picture+) – 63.9
14. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning – Part One (Stage 6 of 6; Picture+) – 63.5
15. All of Us Strangers (Stage 6 of 6; Picture+) – 63.2
16. The Color Purple (Stage 6 of 6; Picture+) – 62.9
17. Ferrari (Stage 6 of 6; Picture+) – 62.7
18. Past Lives (Stage 6 of 6; Picture+) – 62.3
19. Anatomy of a Fall (Stage 6 of 6; Picture+) – 62.1
20. Wonka (Stage 6 of 6; Picture+) – 61.2
Are there any titles missing from this list that you might have expected to be here? I don’t really see any. SaltburnAir, and Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. were probably the most noteworthy names missing
Just as a thought exercise and just to satisfy my own curiosity, here are the ten titles at the bottom of the list.
1. The Mother of All Lies (Stage 6 of 6; Shortlist) – 31.6
2. King Coal (Stage 6 of 6; Picture+) – 32.6
3. Mutt (Stage 6 of 6; Picture+) – 33.6
4. Foe (Stage 6 of 6; Picture+) – 33.9
5. A Still Small Voice (Stage 6 of 6; Shortlist) – 34.4
6. 65 (Stage 6 of 6; Picture+) – 35.8
7. Mami Wata (Stage 6 of 6; General) – 38.2
8. About Dry Grasses (Stage 6 of 6; Picture+) – 38.9
9. Enys Men (Stage 6 of 6; Picture+) – 39.1
10. Robot Dreams (Stage 6 of 6; Picture+) – 39.3
Robot Dreams is probably the most notable film on this list as its precursor performance was better than the other titles in this section. A Still Small Voice and The Mother of All Lies were the only others with any precursor citations.
Now, let’s look at the top ten at each stage. Since most of these links are above, I won’t be re-linking just to make them a quicker read.
Best of Stage 1 (Out of 20 points)
1. Killers of the Flower Moon – 20
2. Maestro – 18
3. The Holdovers – 16
*. May December – 16
*. Napoleon – 16
*. Nyad – 16
*. Oppenheimer – 16
*. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar – 16
9. Air – 14
*. Asteroid City – 14
*. Barbie – 14
*. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny – 14
*. The Little Mermaid – 14
*. Poor Things – 14
This was the stage we looked solely at the pedigree of the creatives and cast and their history with the Oscars or major festivals.
Best of Stage 2 (Out of 30 points)
1. Killers of the Flower Moon – 27.9
*. Maestro – 27.9
3. The Holdovers – 25.6
4. Nyad – 25.4
5. May December – 25.3
6. Napoleon – 25.0
7. Oppenheimer – 24.3
8. Air – 23.1
9. Asteroid City – 22.6
10. Poor Things – 22.3
For Stage 2, we looked at the content of the film such as genre, length, rating, etc. Not a lot changed after this stage with everyone staying in pretty most of the titles staying in nearly the same position.
Best of Stage 3 (Out of 50 points)
1. Maestro – 43.9
2. Killers of the Flower Moon – 42.5
3. The Holdovers – 41.0
4. Nyad – 40.0
5. May December – 39.9
6. Napoleon – 39.0
7. Poor Things – 38.9
8. Oppenheimer – 36.9
9. Ferrari – 36.7
10. Asteroid City – 36
**. Next Goal Wins – 36
At Stage 3, we’re looking at the release window. When did the film choose to release, what was its box office strategy. Did it play at festivals? Sometimes, these factors can bolster a film’s chances. Once again, not a lot of movement, but Maestro‘s decision to release at Venice bolstered its chances over Killers‘ premiere at Cannes, then Maestro went with a December release versus Killers‘ October release.
Best of Stage 4 (Out of 70 points)
1. Killers of the Flower Moon – 60.7
2. Maestro – 59.6
3. The Holdovers – 58.8
4. May December – 57.5
5. Poor Things – 57.0
6. Oppenheimer – 55.1
7. Nyad – 54.9
8. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar – 52.2
9. Barbie – 51.2
*. Ferrari – 51.2
*. Napoleon – 51.2
Next, we add in critics’ reactions. Reviews from MetaCritic and Rotten Tomatoes can make or break a contender. This is why films like Nyad and Napoleon dropped dramatically while the balance of power between Maestro and Killers of the Flower Moon shifted. It also helped Barbie drive/shuttle/bike back into the top 10.
Best of Stage 5 (Out of 80 points)
1. Killers of the Flower Moon – 68.5
2. The Holdovers – 65.5
3. Maestro – 63.9
4. Poor Things – 63.6
5. Oppenheimer – 63.2
6. Nyad – 62.9
7. May December – 62.1
8. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar – 60.0
9. Barbie – 58.8
10. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One – 58.1
Finally, we have the last stage before precursors. Audience reaction. Sometimes, this confirms critical reaction or sometimes it goes in the opposite direction. It’s hard to guess what audiences will likely. You then also have to discount those review bombers who will try to tank a movie they loathe (Barbie‘s scores are an obvious reflection of this). That last entry is a bit surprising, but it was both well reviewed and well attended, which can account for its performance. That said, the precursors are a final chance to bring some of these overperformers into parity.
And that’s everything. While I hope to be able to finalize this list once all of the movies are out of theaters just to see if much changes, but this is the best we’re going to do pre-nominations. Let’s see how things go.
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