With the biggie, SAG, out of the way, we have all of our predictions cemented.

Best Actor

Winner Predictions

Bradley Cooper – Maestro
Colman Domingo – Rustin
Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers PP
Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer WLTL
Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction

Runner-Up Predictions

Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers WLTL
Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer PP

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Wesley Lovell: When Cillian Murphy won BAFTA, we brushed it off as home field advantage but winning SAG over Paul Giamatti could be decisive. Murphy has won most of the precursors but Giamatti had done quite well himself. Now he’s playing defense and Murphy pulls ahead at the best moment. It’s still a tight race but Murphy isn’t likely to have another shot at the prize and Giamatti likely will, so this might be the second career achievement award of the night.
Pete Patrick: Both Giamatti and Murphy have won significant precursors, and we should expect one or the other to take home the Oscar. I think Giamatti will pull ahead in the end, but it will be toss-up all the way to the opening of the envelope.
Thomas La Tourrette: This is a race that has definitely been up in the air. Cillian Murphy has long been the frontrunner, but a fairly weak one. His work in Oppenheimer was more subtle than the other nominees and it seemed plausible that someone might pass him in the rankings. He did have a slight homefield advantage at BAFTA and if one of the Americans had won there, his race would have been over. But he won and then there were the SAG awards. Many wondered if Paul Giamatti would win for his work in The Holdovers or even Jeffrey Wright for American Fiction, but again it went to Murphy. It now is likely that he will win the Oscar. I kept expecting Bradley Cooper to be more in the mix as he is on his fifth acting nomination and 12th total without a win, but he never seemed to catch on. Giamatti’s inability to land a Spirit nomination may have hurt his chances here too. Wright won that, but I do not see him going on to collect the Oscar. Colman Domingo will get some votes for being in an uplifting movie, but I am doubtful that he could get enough to win. It is now likely that Cillian Murphy is the one who will hear his name called out on March 10th.

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