SAG, BAFTA, and several other groups have made their selections. Here are ours.

Best Actress

Winner Predictions

Annette Bening – Nyad
Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon WLTL
Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall PP
Carey Mulligan – Maestro
Emma Stone – Poor Things

Runner-Up Predictions

Emma Stone – Poor Things WLPPTL

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Wesley Lovell: With her win at the Screen Actors Guild, Lily Gladstone pulls back ahead in the race for Best Actress. Emma Stone may have won BAFTA but Gladstone wasn’t nominated there, so we couldn’t see the competition. Gladstone won the preponderance of awards but Stone was thought to be a threat for a second win; however, the audience reception for Gladstone, a relative newcomer compared to Stone, suggests she’s on a CODA-like collision course with the Oscars.
Pete Patrick: It’s probably just wishful thinking at this point, but I’m predicting an upset with Sandra Hüller taking it over presumed favorites Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone.
Thomas La Tourrette: This is probably the tightest race of the night. Lily Gladstone would become the first Native American winner in this category. I think people will like the symbolism of that and coupled with her strong, quiet performance, she is a good choice. The two problems that might hold her back are her relative newness to the industry and the sheer length of the film which may have turned some voters off. Her lack of a BAFTA nomination might have hurt her chances, but the win at SAG keeps her in the top position. Her strongest competition comes from Emma Stone who did her best work to date in Poor Things. She gave a bravura performance, but the strangeness of the movie may keep some people from voting for her. She does already have one Oscar which probably hurts her chances some, but she is well liked and respected in the industry. I was wondering if momentum was starting to swing her way, but not winning the SAG award probably means that she goes home without the Oscar too. It does sound like Sandra Hüller is gaining some strength just as voting starts, but it may be too little too late for her. Anthony Hopkins did pull off a similar feat three years ago, but he at least had a BAFTA win going into the Oscars. Hüller has nothing like that to help her win. Annette Bening probably will get some votes on her fifth nomination, but sentiment will not carry her far enough. The only one who does not stand any chance is Carey Mulligan who gave an amazing performance in Maestro. She will also have to wait for another chance. I would not be surprised if Emma Stone’s name gets called on March 10th, but it seems more likely that it will be Lily Gladstone.

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