We’re looking at each individual category for the Oscars and what our thoughts are going into the final stretch. We’ll adjust our thoughts based on the precursor associated with this category, Screen Actors Guild. Below are our predictions in Best Actor.

Best Actor

Winner Predictions

• Adrien Brody – The Brutalist (WL P) [New] (TL O)
• Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Uknown
• Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
• Ralph Fiennes – Conclave (PP P) [New]
• Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice

Runner-Up Predictions

• Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Uknown (WL P) [New] (PP P) [New] (TL O)

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Wesley Lovell: All season, there have been three men in a tight race for Best Actor: Adrien Brody, Timothée Chalamet, and Colman Domingo. Chalamet struggled most of the season to win awards but with his win at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG), he pulled even with Adrien Brody who is trying to get his second Oscar. Domingo won most of the precursors until Brody started steamrolling through. Domingo has largely fallen behind and I doubt he will win but would be an intriguing upset. Chalamet may have hit his stride a bit late as his win at SAG came after every other televised group had gone for Brody and Oscar voting was already concluded. Perhaps that was for the best as his speech was self-aggrandizing and that might well have killed all momentum right there. A Complete Unknown did better with industry voters than expected and Chalamet is playing a living legend, spent five years working on the project, and imitated his vocals for both dialogue and singing. That is the kind of thing SAG voters love. The Academy loves its biopic performances so he stands a chance but Brody winning BAFTA was probably the canary in the coal mine for Chalamet.
Pete Patrick: I’m going out on a limb with one in predicting Fiennes, but Chalamet taking the SAG award over Adrien Brody shows that the award is still in play and ripe for an upset at the Oscars.
Thomas La Tourrette: For a short while this seemed like it could be anybody’s to win, aside from Sebastian Stan. He did good work in The Apprentice but was never going to win for it. Ralph Fiennes had turned in a fine performance in Conclave, but he never rose to the top of the standings. The film might still capture best picture, but for whatever reason he will not be joining it. Colman Domingo has actually won the most precursors, but his campaign did not catch on either. Adrien Brody who felt like he was little seen since his win for 2002’s The Pianist was suddenly winning everything and looks poised for a second Oscar playing a Holocaust survivor. I did not expect him to be so dominant, but he has stayed red hot even as The Brutalist has faded in other races. The only person who stands a chance of defeating him is Timothée Chalamet for his portrayal of Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown. The movie’s late release date seemed like it might keep it out of major competition, but it resonated in Hollywood earning eight nominations including some that were quite unexpected. That powered Chalamet into a race that grew tighter though Brody kept winning awards. Chalamet finally had a breakthrough winning the Screen Actors Guild award, but that comes after voting has closed for the Oscars. It does show that he has support for the actors who are the largest voting bloc of the Academy, but it may have come too late. There is still a chance that Timothée becomes the youngest actor to win this, which would beat out Brody’s own record by a few months, but I expect it to be Adrien Brody’s name called out on Sunday night.

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