We’re looking at each individual category for the Oscars and what our thoughts are going into the final stretch. We’ve adjusted our thoughts based on the precursor associated with this category, Screen Actors Guild. Below are our predictions in Best Actress.

Best Actress

Winner Predictions

• Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
• Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez
• Mikey Madison – Mikey Madison
• Demi Moore – The Substance (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)
• Fernanda Torres – Fernanda Torres

Runner-Up Predictions

• Mikey Madison – Mikey Madison (WL P) [New] (PP P) [New] (TL P) [New]

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Wesley Lovell: After Demi Moore won the Golden Globe, it seemed like her candidacy took off despite not having been much in the race until then. While she did triumph at SAG, she lost out to Mikey Madison at BAFTA, which stopped all of us short. That said, The Substance did not seem like a film the Brits would take as seriously and thus I still think Moore will win but it’s much closer than any of us imagined at first.
Pete Patrick: Moore won SAG, Madison won BAFTA, either is possible, but I give the edge to Moore whose back story seems to resonate more with her fellow actors than Madison’s.
Thomas La Tourrette: Demi or Mikey? Or maybe Fernanda? This has proved a tough call. Demi Moore suddenly became a front runner with her unexpected win at the Golden Globes, and a superb acceptance speech. She followed that up with a win from the Critics Choice and started to seem unstoppable. Then BAFTA went to Mikey Madison, the early front runner and young, unknown actress who had claimed a number of critics awards. If the British could go for such an American role, maybe she had a clear road to Oscar. Then SAG went back to Demi, so it is pretty even. And this is leaving out Fernanda Torres who won the Golden Globe for drama and anchored I’m Still Here with a tremendous performance. Winning in a foreign language film, especially having not been nominated for SAG or BAFTA, is going to be difficult, but no one has ruled out her pulling an upset. Being Brazilian might appeal to the international voters too. Karla Sofía Gascón made history as the first transgender nominee, but then her campaign collapsed when old tweets arose. She has a negative chance of winning after that and may have cost her film some other wins. Cynthia Erivo was impressive in Wicked but never rose to contention. Perhaps next year with the second half of Wicked. So, it mostly remains between Mikey the ingenue and Demi the veteran who received the best notices of her career, with an outside chance for Fernanda. The Academy does like to honor relative newcomers, but I would give the edge to Demi Moore after that SAG win.

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