We’re looking at each individual category for the Oscars and what our thoughts are going into the final stretch. We’ll adjust our thoughts based on the precursor associated with this category, Writers Guild of America and USC Scripter (which is not scheduled until this weekend). Below are our predictions in Best Adapted Screenplay.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Winner Predictions

• A Complete Unknown
• Conclave (WL P) [New] (PP O) (TL O)
• Emilia Pérez
• Nickel Boys
• Sing Sing

Runner-Up Predictions

• A Complete Unknown (TL O)
• Nickel Boys (WL P) [New] (PP P) [New]

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Wesley Lovell: Without knowing the winner of the USC Scripter award, we’re left with one fewer precursor to consider before making our Path to Oscar choices. Having said that, I’m not sure it will be much help this year, especially if they go the route I think they’ll go. Conclave has the most lead-in precursors and with the Academy and BAFTA both underrecognizing Nickel Boys, I suspect that Conclave will probably win this (and it will likely be the film’s only award.
Pete Patrick: Conclave has been winning a lot of the precursors with only Nickel Boys giving it much competition.  A surprise win for A Complete Unknown may be possible, but not likely.
Thomas La Tourrette: Conclave has won the most precursors which should set it up nicely to win this. It is a talk heavy film which should also help it to win. Its closest competitor is Nickel Boys, but that movie’s choice of first-person viewpoint jumping between two characters was more gimmicky than successful. Nickel Boys did win the Writers Guild award, but Conclave was not eligible for that, so it does not have much bearing on this. The USC Scripter award is a better gauge, but that award has not happened yet, so we are without that help. Unless A Complete Unknown or Emilia Pérez pull off a major sweep, which is unlikely, than neither has much of a chance of winning. Sing Sing also has little chance of prevailing. This leaves Conclave as the likely winner.

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