We’re looking at each individual category for the Oscars and what our thoughts are going into the final stretch. We’ll adjust our thoughts based on the precursor associated with this category, Directing. Below are our predictions in Best Directing.

Best Directing

Winner Predictions

• Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
• Sean Baker – Anora (WL P) [New] (PP P) [New]
• Brady Corbet – The Brutalist (TL O)
• Coralie Fargeat – The Substance
• James Mangold – A Complete Unknown

Runner-Up Predictions

• Sean Baker – Anora (TL P) [New]
• Brady Corbet – The Brutalist (WL P) [New] (PP P) [New]

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Wesley Lovell: The DGA has a strong track record for forecasting the eventual Oscar nominee. That has to make Sean Baker very happy. Still, I can’t get past the feeling that his film isn’t the kind the Academy would award. As such, it’s possible someone like Brady Corbet or James Mangold could pick up the prize instead.
Pete Patrick: On the theory that DGA winners usually prevail at the Oscars, I’m going with Sean Baker, but it could just as easily be Brady Corbet who dominated most of the early precursors.
Thomas La Tourrette: For weeks this has felt like a slam dunk win for Brady Corbet who spent years getting The Brutalist made, and for under $10 million to boot. Then the Directors Guild threw a major wrench into the works and awarded Sean Baker for his work on Anora instead. I would have bet money that it was likely to go Corbet until yesterday. I still think it might go to Corbet, but have moved Baker into the runner up position, a place I had never seriously considered putting him in before. James Mangold was a surprise nominee and stands little chance of winning unless A Complete Unknown pulls off a major blowout. Coralie Fargeat will not win for The Substance. Jacques Audiard had seemed a possible winner for the most nominated film of the year, Emilia Pérez, but his chances have faded with the backlash against the movie. It could be DGA winner Baker, but I still think that Corbet will win in a squeaker.

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