We’re looking at each individual category for the Oscars and what our thoughts are going into the final stretch. We’ll adjust our thoughts based on the precursor associated with this category, Producers Guild of America. Below are our predictions in Best Documentary Feature.

Best Documentary Feature

Winner Predictions

• Black Box Diaries
• No Other Land (TL O)
• Porcelain War
• Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PP P) [New]
• Sugarcane (WL O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• No Other Land (WL O)
• Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (TL P) [New]
• Sugarcane (PP P) [New]

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Wesley Lovell: This is a difficult category to predict, not because there are too many valid contenders but because a lot of the contenders have had setbacks. Super/Man seemed to be the frontrunner until the Academy didn’t even shortlist it. And then only PGA nominee nominated was Porcelain War. The PGA went with Super/Man anyway, leaving the DGA our only other potential source for a prediction and they picked Porcelain War. So that would conceivably be the fontrunner. Yet, I don’t think it has the capability of going all the way. I think the two with the best chances are No Other Land and Sugarcane, both of which did decently well with the precursors as well. Ultimately, those three are probably running out front but either of the other two nominees could sneak in a victory. That’s why I say this one is tough to predict.
Pete Patrick: The all-star archival footage of Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat is hard to beat.  If anything can, perhaps it’s the investigation to the nefarious goings-on at the Sugarcane Reserve.
Thomas La Tourrette: Of the three films I have seen, No Other Land was the most finished and moving of the documentaries. The life of Palestinians in a small town that Israeli soldiers and settlers were trying to get rid of was heartbreakingly told. It has the most precursor wins and looks poised to get the Oscar as well. Sugarcane and Porcelain War also dealt with serious subjects, but not quite as well. The other two sound powerful too. I think No Other Land will win.

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