Best Original Screenplay

Winner Predictions

• Anora (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)
• The Brutalist
• A Real Pain
• September 5
• The Substance

Runner-Up Predictions

• A Real Pain (PP O) (TL P) [New]
• The Substance (WL P) [New]

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Wesley Lovell: While I still feel that Anora will win this, there is a world where The Substance earns some accolade for director Coralie Fargeat. If Sean Baker wins in Best Directing to match the DGA, I could see them awarding someone else here to spread the love around. Of course, don’t count out A Real Pain or The Brutalist either.
Pete Patrick: Anora has pretty much been running away with this one with only A Real Pain giving it a run for its money so no reason to expect anything else at the Oscars.
Thomas La Tourrette: Anora has won the most precursors, and for a long time I assumed it would be a runaway win. But when I look at the spread of the precursors it makes me realize that it is not quite so simple a choice. Anora has 20 wins, with A Real Pain netting 13, The Brutalist 9, and The Substance 8, which means any of them could stand a chance of winning. I do think it will be between just Anora and A Real Pain. Anora has the Writers Guild win, but A Real Pain just garnered the BAFTA. It might seem that momentum is swinging towards A Real Pain, but with the Crictics Choice, Producers, and Directors Guilds awarding Anora, it is still the safest choice. A Real Pain is the more talkie film which might sway some voters over to it, but it will probably go to Anora.

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