We’re looking at each individual category for the Oscars and what our thoughts are going into the final stretch. We’ll adjust our thoughts based on the precursor associated with this category, Society of Composers & Lyricists. Below are our predictions in Best Original Song.

Best Original Song

Winner Predictions

• The Journey – The Six Triple Eight (TL P) [New]
• Like a Bird – Sing Sing
• El Mal – Emilia Pérez (WL O) (PP O)
• Mi Camino – Emilia Pérez
• Never Too Late – Elton John: Never Too Late

Runner-Up Predictions

• The Journey – The Six Triple Eight (WL O)
• El Mal – Emilia Pérez (TL P) [New]
• Never Too Late – Elton John: Never Too Late (PP O)

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Wesley Lovell: BAFTA has no song award, so we’re left to review the paucity of other precursors with said prize and they don’t paint a clear picture. “El Mal” is the one with the most precursors but that’s with few other nominees in competition. Only “The Journey” has picked up a prize elsewhere. It’s probably certain that “El Mal” wins but who knows how resistant Academy voters will be to honoring Emilia Pérez altogether. Two things that work against “El Mal” are Karla Sofía Gascón’s vocals on the song, which might remind voters of her controversy and songwriter Diane Warren keeps getting nominated even for weaker songs and there could be a groundswell of support to finally get her that Oscar she’s always dreamed of.
Pete Patrick: Emilia Pérez doesn’t seem to have suffered from the fallout surrounding its star, so “El Mal” is probably still in good stead to win with Elton John’s “Never Too Late” a possible spoiler.
Thomas La Tourrette: For the first time this season, I am changing who I think will win. I always had “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez in the winning spot and figured nothing could touch it. It is not that well written a song, but it is very effective in the film. It benefits from being used in the film rather than just over the closing credits, which only the two nominated songs from Emilia Pérez do. The song does show the hypocrisy of the people attending a benefit and the forceful work by Zoe Saldaña sells it. But there has been so much backlash against the film and its star that I wonder if that will affect some of its other nominations including this one. The main beneficiary is likely to be Diane Warren’s anthem “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight. It is not that amazing a song but it is a heartfelt ballad that H.E.R has been performing in concert for some time to give it recognition. This is Warren’s 16th nomination without a win, though that seems like it could change this year. “Mi Camino” also from Emilia Pérez does not have the same impact of “El Mal,” so probably never stood much of a chance. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing feels like the weakest of the nominees. “Never Too Late” by Elton John for the documentary about him may pick up some votes as he would be the sentimental choice as his eyesight is failing and there may not be many more songs written by the 77-year-old composer, but it is not a very memorable song either. Still, it feels like a battle between “El Mal” and “The Journey.” “El Mal” has the most wins of any of the nominees and may still win, but I think an upset is brewing and Diane Warren will finally break her losing streak at the Oscars and claim an award for “The Journey.”

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