We’re looking at each individual category for the Oscars and what our thoughts are going into the final stretch. We’ve adjusted our thoughts based on the precursor associated with this category, Producers Guild of America. Below are our predictions in Best Picture.

Best Picture

Winner Predictions

• Anora (WL P) [New]
• The Brutalist
• A Complete Unknown
• Conclave (PP P) [New] (TL P) [New]
• Dune: Part Two
• Emilia Pérez
• I’m Still Here
• Nickel Boys
• The Substance
• Wicked

Runner-Up Predictions

• Complete Unknown (PP P) [New]
• Conclave (WL P) [New]

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Wesley Lovell: Everything has been announced and with the precursors going every which direction (The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez at the Globes, Anora at the PGA and DGA, and Conclave at BAFTA and SAG), it seems like the race has gone from muddy to muddier. There is a genuine possibility that Conclave comes out on top. Those SAG and BAFTA wins were quite telling. With the industry splitting, it’s hard to say which is in the lead. Of the 11 prior times that PGA and DGA went one way and SAG went another, three times (Shakespeare in Love, Crash, and Parasite) the SAG winner took the Oscar. Once, none of the three groups predicted the Oscar winner (Moonlight) and the second was a special case (12 Years a Slave) where the PGA had a tie, half agreeing with DGA and half with 12 Years). Six times it was the PGA/DGA winner. Long story short, it’s a very difficult category to call. Ultimately, I think The Brutalist using AI, even in the minor way it was done, may have been the blow that sent it spiraling towards defeat. Anora would seem in the vein of past Oscar winners such as Nomadland and Moonlight while Conclave doesn’t quite match any historical deviation. I will probably stick with Anora to win. It seems much more the speed of the modern Academy than Conclave but we’ll all be on tinterhooks until the envelope is opened.
Pete Patrick: The smart money is on either Anora or The Brutalist, which won the majority of the early critics’ awards, but Conclave won both BAFTA for Best Film and SAG for Best Cast, its closest thing to a Best Picture award.  That and A Complete Unknown are beloved by older voters.  I suspect one or the other will win with Conclave having the edge.
Thomas La Tourrette: This has been the wildest race I can remember seeing. Various different movies have risen to the top and then dropped out as favorite. With 13 nominations Emilia Pérez seemed the early favorite and was giving Netflix its best chance to finally win the big prize, but controversy engulfed it, and I doubt it stands any chance of winning. The Brutalist then seemed the probable winner, but it seemingly has faltered too. A Complete Unknown bowed late but picked up steam when it got a surprise directing nod, but it does not seem to be a serious contender. Wicked felt like it could be the feel-good choice, and it was a fun and well-done movie, but it never seemed to catch on as a best picture contender. Then Anora received PGA, DGA, and Critics Choice awards in short order and was the absolute front runner. Those awards should guarantee it a win. But the film about a sex worker who marries the son of Russian oligarchs just does not feel like the type of film the Academy awards, even if the producers guild did. It seemingly had it in the bag until BAFTA surprised everyone with a win to Conclave, which followed that up by getting the SAG award for best cast, the closest thing they have to best picture. Conclave is a safer choice as well as a much less polarizing one, and one I personally liked better, though I would not choose either as best of the year. Anora seemingly is lined up to win, but I do wonder if Conclave will be named on Sunday night. It will be interesting to see what wins.

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