We’re looking at each individual category for the Oscars and what our thoughts are going into the final stretch. We’ll adjust our thoughts based on the precursor associated with this category, Screen Actors Guild. Below are our predictions in Best Actor.

Best Actor

Winner Predictions

• Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme
• Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
• Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon
• Michael B. Jordan – Sinners (WL) [New] (TL) [New]
• Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent (PP) [New]

Runner-Up Predictions

• Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme (WL) [New]
• Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon (PP) [New] (TL) [New]

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Wesley Lovell: Oscar season has given mixed signals for three-quarters of the acting categories, Best Actor being one of the harder to parse. Starting things off were the critics who were largely split with the old guard picking Wagner Moura (New York), Ethan Hawke (Los Angeles, Boston, and National Society), Leonardo DiCaprio (NBR), and Timothée Chalamet (Chicago & Critics Choice). Then Chalamet and Moura won at the Golden Globes. This seemed to crown one of the two as the frontrunner with the two televised awards going to Chalamet and cementing him as the frontrunner. Then BAFTA threw a curve ball and passed up four of these men (Moura wasn’t nominated) and went with Robert Aramayo. This left the Screen Actors Guild to make a decision and it did: Michael B. Jordan. Jordan had, to that point, picked up only major critics prizes from Kansas City critics, Southeastern critics, and the Online Film Critics Society. Every nominee has won at least one major citation. The late win might propel Jordan to a win, but let’s recall that the last time we though the SAG winner would be the foregone Oscar conclusion (the late Chadwick Boseman), the final award of the night went instead to Anthony Hopkins in one of the biggest Oscar upsets in history, especially one the producers thought was going to be a loving tribute the recently-passed Boseman. So what does that tell us. Jordan is a weak frontrunner. All of the other nominees are still in the race and, in the end, this will probably be the biggest shock of the night. DiCaprio has an Oscar of relatively recent vintage so I’m putting him in the rear. Moura would be a nice international choice but if they can resist Fernanda Torres and the narrative surrounding her last year, I expect they won’t be keen on awarding Moura, though that Cannes win could be a boost. Ultimately, I think this one will come down to Chalamet, Jordan, and Hawke. Hawke has several prior nominations and could well earn a career win but the fact that his film has only a single other nomination puts that out of mind. Marty Supreme might go home empty-handed without a Chalamet win, which could boost his chances. Jordan has been bubbling under for quite a while and it’s tempting to award an actor who plays two different roles. Ultimately, I think Chalamet peaked too early and Sinners may be making a last-minute surge to a Best Picture win so I think at this point Jordan has to be considered the slight leader in this race.
Pete Patrick: I think we’re in for a surprise here.
Thomas La Tourrette: In a rather stunning turnaround, Timothée Chalamet has gone from being a foregone conclusion to an unlikely winner. He probably already had had some points against him for being so young, he would have been the second youngest winner ever. And then comments disparaging opera and dance will not have helped his cause, nor did his aggressive campaigning style. He is a talented actor who gave a mesmerizing performance of a not very likeable person. It seemed inevitable that this was his year, but that has changed, starting with the surprising loss at BAFTA. He could still win, but that is seeming increasingly unlikely. Leonardo DiCaprio did give one of his best performances in One Battle After Another, but his candidacy never seemed to catch on. Wagner Moura had the surprise win at the Golden Globes, but I do not see him winning here. For a long time, I thought Ethan Hawke might pull off the unexpected win as it is his fourth nomination without a win and it is a showy and physically transformational role in almost every frame of the movie, but he too will have to wait another year. It is now looking to be Michael B. Jordan’s to lose, someone I did not give much of a chance to before his win at the Actor awards. It was an amazingly quick change on the leaderboard, but his turn as twin brothers now looks primed to take home the Oscar.

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